Thunder Draft Prep: Buying a Second Rounder

The NBA Draft is today! The Thunder do not have a second round pick, but they do have roughly 3 million dollars to offer up for one. They will more than likely come away with a second rounder, and they have worked out a number of guys projected to go in that range. There are a lot of intriguing candidates, but let’s be honest — most of these guys will play either in the G-League or overseas.

The second round is incredibly difficult to predict. There have been players like Khris Middleton, Jae Crowder, and Jordan Clarkson in the second round. But for every Crowder, there are hundreds of Trent Plaisteds and DeVon Hardins. Today we take a look at potential sleepers Devin Robinson, Josh Hart, Frank Mason III, and Nigel Williams-Goss.

(A huge shout-out to Michele Berra and Nicolò Ciuppani at Chart Side for doing a massive amount of work for this series. You guys are the best. Also — for a fun way to watch the draft, check out the Down to Dunk Draft Challenge.)

Devin Robinson: SF/PF — Florida

OFFENSE

Plus:

• Phenomenal leaper, strides to the basket in 2 dribbles
• Solid pump fake, catches opponents off guard
• Good shooting form, high release, pretty consistent
• Solid pull up, can create separation thanks to height, jump and his high release
• A threat on the offensive boards, starts to chase rebounds from far away and leap above everybody
• Fills lanes correctly in transition, makes good use of corners

Minus:

• No IQ, doesn’t understand what’s happening on the court
• Absolutely no vision, can’t make a smart pass, offense dies when balls come to him
• Horrible dribble skills, loses ball when pressured or double teamed, not a threat in iso
• Settles for pull ups, can’t jump to the basket with one foot, only uses 2 feet jumps
• Bad screener, doesn’t set screens when off the ball, little to none commitment

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 69.2% / 33.3% / 35.2% / 68.2% / 55.3%

VOL: 30.0% / 4% / 30.0%  / 10.9% / 25.1%

DEFENSE

Plus:

• Jack of all trades on defense, can guard PGs and PFs during the same game
• Tremendous switchability, excellent pick & roll defender
• Has a great wingspan, keeps opponent in front of him
• Excellent timing for blocks, blocks shots in front of him and chasing others
• Covers ground with ease, solid helper
• Obscures passing lanes, catches lobs, deflects passes
• Not a bad defensive rebounder, can play small ball 4 at will

Minus:

• Falls asleep when guarding off the ball, loses focus
• Doesn’t understand the game, makes wrong choices
• Doesn’t know when to help, leaves open 3 point attempts
• Has to put up a bigger frame, struggles to keep position against smaller guys
• Stares at the ball, loses eyesight with his man

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

On the surface Devin Robinson looks like a sleeper. He’s 6’8” with a 7’ wingspan, and is a freak athlete. He shot 39% from three and 72% from the line. That all looks good right? All the makings of a modern NBA player right?

The problem with Robinson is that he doesn’t possess the other skills needed in the NBA today: Passing, court awareness, ability to guard the pick and roll, screening, and just overall basketball IQ. Sam Vecenie of the Sporting News referred to Robinson as a “fake prospect”, meaning he looks like a NBA player, but he’s really not.

Robinson is a very late second round pick, probably in the 50’s, so there is not a lot of risk involved with taking him. If the Thunder do buy a second rounder, they should look elsewhere for NBA level talent.

Josh Hart: SG — Villanova

OFFENSE

Plus:

• Sharpshooter, quite consistent with his jumper
• Good foot positioning on jumper, hops into shooting position quickly
• Smart cutter, tricks defender to cut them backdoor
• Unselfish player, makes the extra pass, finds cutters
• Crashes the offensive board aggressively
• Creative around the rim, doesn’t get overwhelmed if he has space

Minus:

• Has to develop NBA range, sometimes release shots on the descent of a jump
• Right hand dominant, horrible use of left hand, uses right hand driving left
• Not a fancy dribbler, better as a straight line driver
• Finishes under the rim in traffic, might struggles against taller defenders
• Lack of a single NBA level ability, doubt if he can translate his game

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 71.9% / 46.2% / 34.5% / 64.7% / 58.8%

VOL: 36.1% / 5.6% / 18.8% / 12.6% / 27.0%

DEFENSE

Plus:

• Skilled defender, active hands and feet
• Rarely fouls, keeps opponents in front and contest shots without making contact
• Good reader of passing lanes, sprints out to get the steal
• Good defensive IQ, knows how and when to switch
• Strong will, goes after every 50-50 ball, sacrifices his body

Minus:

• Lacks defensive versatility, can defend against similar frames only
• Can’t contest shots from taller defenders, gets beaten consistently by quicker guards
• Unknown how he can transition his defensive game, might struggle a lot against NBA guards and switching in P&R

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

Josh Hart has become everyone’s favorite second round pick, and for good reason. Hart has good size for a shooting guard at 6’5” 209 lbs. He shot the ball very well from three, 40% on over 5 attempts per game. He’s an adequate defender, but not a stopper. He’s very polished, and as a player who just received his college degree, he should be.

Many peg Hart as the next Malcolm Brogdon. There are some ways to compare the two. Both can shoot and have good size. One thing that could keep Hart from having a Brogdon like impact is his handle. He is extremely right hand dominant, and doesn’t possess the same point guard skills. The good news is he finishes very well at the rim when he gets there, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to finish over the elite length of the NBA. The biggest comp between Hart and Brogdon is immediate impact.

It’s difficult to see Hart’s fit in OKC today. He projects as a shooting guard, which the Thunder have filled already with Abrines and Oladipo. With that said, having a player like Hart that can come in and play solid D and hit 3’s isn’t the worst things to have at the end of your bench. Selecting Hart could also bring the necessary depth you’d need to possibly deal an Oladipo for a bigger piece.

If the Thunder do indeed buy a pick in the mid second round, look for Hart to be a target. He has worked out for the Thunder already, and could be a major steal in the 2nd round.

Frank Mason III: PG — Kansas

OFFENSE

Plus:

• Really fast in transition, puts a lot of pressure on D
• Has good court vision in transition, makes smart passes or drives at the rim with no hesitation
• Automatic jumper, can pull up in half court, in transition or behind screens
• Is a threat from pick & roll, forces defenders to pass over the screen or punish them
• Can glide through defenders and attack the rim at will
• Can create offense out of nowhere, able to finds bigs and shooters when help defense come
• Might be ready for a backup role in NBA from day one

Minus:

• Tunnel vision especially in half court, crash into defenders
• Too small for having good court visions, botches lobs
• Bad shot selection, doesn’t care for shot clock
• No consideration for shooters when driving
• Tends to jump without knowing what to do next
• Can play only at full speed, unable to change pace

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG:  56.3% / 41.2% / 38.4% / 59.3% / 75.0%

VOL: 40.0% / 6.37% / 18.7% / 8.9% / 26.7%

DEFENSE

Plus:

• Quick hands, gets physical and doesn’t allow separation
• Grinder on defense, gets stuck to his opponent, isn’t afraid of contact or taking hits

Minus:

• Too short for guarding anyone but small point guards
• Can’t affect drives, bigger guards post him up constantly
• Has good will and toughness, but can’t really switch on anyone
• Doubtful if he can guard strongest and biggest point guards in NBA

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

Mason is a hard-nosed point guard. He has decent passing vision and shot extremely well from three, 47% on nearly 5 attempts per game. The clear weakness for Mason is his size. He is 5’11” 185 lbs. To make it in the NBA at under six feet, it takes a special player. But Mason might have what it takes.

We know for sure he has worked out for the Thunder, and that they have a huge need to fill at the backup point guard position. He’s the type of guys who you could draft in the second round and feel good only playing him 13 or less minutes a game. His size would not allow him to play alongside Westbrook. Mason will struggle to defend anyone in the NBA. His size won’t stop him from trying. He gives great effort and doesn’t shy away from contact on either end. Despite effort, it won’t work at the next level next to a ball dominant point guard who has defensive deficiencies himself.

Mason could come in and provide instant offense for the Thunder. His ability to play in transition, shoot from NBA range, and play effectively at a high speed make him a great candidate for a backup point guard. Imagine playing Mason, Abrines, McBuckets, Grant and Kanter. Shooters all over the court. Now, that second unit isn’t stopping anyone, but the offense should be very productive with those players. Mason can shoot off the dribble and spot up with ease, probably his most translatable skill from the NCAA to the NBA.

Overall, if the Thunder do get a second round pick they should heavily consider Mason. At the very least a good offensive 3rd point guard that can come in and hit threes. At best he is Westbrook’s backup and helps keep the offense afloat when Russ sits.

Nigel Williams-Goss: PG — Gonzaga

OFFENSE

Plus:

• Tough, charismatic leader, not afraid to take important shots.
• Excellent spot-up shooter, best among all prospects in this draft class
• Good ball handler, playmaking guard. Excellent assist/turnover ratio. Great entry-passer.
• Could work on low post against smaller guards. Better on left block, where he can use the right hand.
• Capable mid-range shooter, very effective in the 5-8 range, efficient with floaters
• Great finisher at the rim, 61.6%

Minus:

• One man fast-break, selfish in transition, prefers floater/layup than passing on corners
• No proof that he’s able to run a sophisticated offense, more of a scoring guard as of now
• Not a ton of upside, albeit he sat down an entire year due to NCAA transfer rules
• Can force the issue shooting-wise

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 61.6% / 52.9% / 40.3% / 50.0% / 54.6%

VOL: 36.3% / 14.2% / 26.5% / 2.35% / 21.3%

DEFENSE

Plus:

• Active hands, more than 3.13 steal every 100 possessions
• If engaged, he can bring defense

Minus:

• Reaches too much in the paint, leaves opponent open from 3 (47% from 3 against, 1.6 real pps against  from ATB)
• Not quick enough laterally to really bother quick guards
• Worst EFG% against of any player at Gonzaga this year

DEFENSIVE SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 66.7% / 26.7% / 29.3% / 58.1% / 51.4%

VOL: 19.3% / 5.36% / 26.8% / 11.1% / 37.5%

Advanced Statistical Profile

Offense/Defense situation splits

[infogram id=”nwg_1-04794260452″ prefix=”kIN” format=”interactive” title=”NWG 1″]

Zone/Man/Transition – SPLIT (100 Poss)

[infogram id=”nwg_2-87108177948″ prefix=”dky” format=”interactive” title=”NWG 2″]

Kpass = pass that leads to a shot

DEFENSIVE IMPACT

[infogram id=”nwg_3-28277747922″ prefix=”Dns” format=”interactive” title=”NWG 3″]

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

Williams-Goss is an interesting player for several reasons. He has good size at 6’4” with a 6’7” wingspan. He is really good at getting into the paint and converting his shots. He is not afraid of the moment. He wants to take shots under pressure. He hit his spot up threes at a good rate this season, although there isn’t a large sample size on his shooting. Williams-Goss is a good entry passer, which bodes well for the Thunder second unit. If the Thunder want to continue to run the offense through the post, whether it be Kanter or Sabonis, you can see Nigel making an entry pass and spotting up. His ability to create differentiates him from a player like Semaj Christon. In fact Williams-Goss is more of a scoring guard than a traditional point guard.

He is already 22, and there may not be a ton of upside. He is most likely a career backup, but with a late second round pick that’s what you are looking for. His defense is a big question mark. His opponents did not struggle to score against him at Gonzaga. If you look at his defensive shot chart above there are a lot of reds and oranges, which is not a good things for Nigel.

Williams-Goss is currently projected as the 60th pick in the draft according to Draft Express. There is a chance the Thunder could sign him post draft as a flyer for a 2 way contract or straight Blue player. His size and ability to score should make him worth a gamble as a late 2nd rounder or free agent scrap heap.