DATA POINT: The Thunder Are Still Getting Better
The Oklahoma City Thunder won last season's championship, then brought back the entire postseason rotation for this season's title defense. Every one of those players besides Alex Caruso and Kenrich Williams is 27 years or younger. Six of them are under 25, if you count new addition Jared McCain.
It felt like the sky was truly the limit as the youth movement raced out to a 24-1 start, but there have been complications ever since. The Thunder finished the season with a 64-18 record, four games worse than last year's mark. Victor Wembanyama and the super-young, rapidly improving Spurs cast a shadow over OKC's trajectory, which was darkened even more by prolonged injuries to OKC's rookie reinforcements (Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber).
So did the Thunder plateau, or did the mid-season noise mask ongoing improvements up and down the roster? Let's take a look at the data, with one key stat demonstrating whether each developing player is still improving.
1. All the way up
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - '25-'26 TOV%: 6.9
Age: 27 | Season: 8th | Career highs: 2P% (.602) TS% (.665), AST (6.6), PER (30.9)
The MVP got better. Again. We ran two (✌️x) recent features with a bunch of insane shooting stats for Shai. The Two-Point God's career high in overall True Shooting has been boosted most by even better shotmaking inside the arc, where he's making 60.2% of his twos. Ethical Kobe, Midrange Curry, Allzones Aldridge, Nash.2, whatever you want to call it: Shai gets buckets from wherever he wants.
Cray Allred
But as our commenters have gushed: there's more. While he has raced ahead on scoring volume and efficiency over this historic 4-year, 30+ppg stretch, Shai has also raced to the bottom in turning the ball over. He went from an excellent turnover rate in 2021-2023 to becoming the very best caretaker of the ball over the last two seasons. Shai is the player most likely to score with the ball in his hands, and the least likely to give the opponent an extra scoring opportunity. Good thing the Thunder put the ball in his hands more than any other player on earth.
Ajay Mitchell - '25-'26 Rim FREQ%: 50.3
Age: 23 | Season: 2nd | Career highs: Everything, pretty much. 13.6 PPG, 3.6 AST, 1.2 STL, I could go on...
Perhaps the greatest difference between the 2025 and 2026 postseason Thunder: Ajay can hang. The champs are adding a plus rotation player to the backcourt, something contenders usually attempt through the trade and free agency markets. OKC is adding one of the very best reserves in the league (Mitchell is rightfully drawing Sixth Man of the Year consideration), via draft and development.
Mitchell's doubled his field goals this season while attacking the rim more frequently. His shot profile isn't just a development stat, but a measure of his place in the upper end of the rotation: Mitchell is playing about 80% of JDub's 2024-25 minutes, and eating up a remarkably consistent 80% of Williams' volume when he's on the court. Mitchell is taking 78% of the same shots from three, 76% from two, and racking up about 83% of the same free throws (all stats per-minute).
Ajay has essentially replicated Jalen Williams' shooting from last season--minus the middies. The one area Mitchell outshines the ghost of Williams is on the interior, where he is more tethered to the cup and less likely to settle for jumpers. His blend of speed and touch makes for a lefty finishing package rivaling that of the bigger, stronger Williams.
Mitchell has been the economy JDub. He doesn't produce quite as much, but he also doesn't take anything away. Not yet as high usage and opportunity as Williams1, Mitchell is taking a balanced diet of rim and paint scoring while dotting in threes at an acceptable rate.
Chet Holmgren - '25-'26 2PFG assisted: 63%
Age: 23 | Season: 3rd | Career highs: PPG (17.1), RBS (8.9), TS% (.653) DDPM(+2.7)
Chet's offensive improvements have been frustratingly incremental, but they are real. He's putting the ball on the floor more and expanding his shot selection to positive effect: Holmgren has poured it in at a higher volume and percentage in the short midrange and at the rim this season. We knew he could spot up, but teams are increasingly paying for running him off the line.
Holmgren's assisted shots have crept up after dipping to 60% earlier in the year, when the Thunder were missing most of their backcourt distributors due to injury. He still finished the season needing less help getting his shot up than Wembanyama, Alex Saar, Michael Porter, Jr., Mikal Bridges, and Trey Murphy III.
Jaylin Williams - '25-'26 minutes played as solo big: 55%
Age: 23 | Season: 4th | Career highs: PPG (7.2), TS% (59.7), DRAPM (+1.3)
Jaylin Williams has become a sturdy defender and above-average shooter, one of OKC's best (among many) development success stories. But he's not just been important backing up Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren, who have missed 48 combined games. He's played most of his minutes as the solo big on the floor, and offered plus playmaking at his position to help OKC dominate those minutes. The Thunder have been top-10 in offense and maintained their league-best defense in the minutes featuring J-Will as the only fronctourt player taller than 6'7.
Isaiah Joe - '25-'26 free throw rate: 0.227
Age: 26 | Season: 6th | Career highs: PPG (11.1), 3P% (42.3), TS% (.657)
Joe is enjoying a career year scoring behind the arc, but the same was true last season. He only played 10 minutes per game in the 2025 postseason, something his defensive improvements--more evident in the eye test than his modest defensive metrics--could remedy this time around.
But if he earns more postseason run, it's not just his defense that has improved: Joe's aggression and creativity in the half-court has expanded his scoring when the Thunder needed more on- and off-ball punch. Joe's prowess in relocation, the two-man game, and screen navigation has led to more scrambling and desperation from opposing defenses. His foul-drawing has more than doubled per-minute, meaning Joe could help OKC's slimmer postseason margins with one-point swings from the line, not just three-point daggers off the bench.
2. Consistent Gains
Isaiah Hartenstein - '25-'26 OREB%: 13.0
Age: 27 | Season: 8th | Career highs: Per-36 Assists (5.3) & Rebounds (14.0)
It's difficult to find a single best stat for IHart, but he's playing the best overall basketball of his career in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have looked overwhelmed on the glass, a rare weakness, when Hartenstein has missed time this season. But when he's in the lineup, he levels the playing field on both ends as a board-gobbler on par with bigs playing for other contenders like Wemby, Nikola Jokic, and Rudy Gobert. Only two players play more minutes than Hartenstein with a better rebounding rate (Donovan Clingan and KAT).
Cason Wallace - '25-26 USG: 14.5%, 19.4% in February
Age: 22 | Season: 3rd | Career highs: PPG (8.6), STL (1.9), AST (2.6)
To be clear: 14.5% usage overall isn't a big number for the season. And 19.4% isn't earth shattering. But Wallace was at 12.6% usage for the first half of the season, on track to finish his third season never breaking a 13% ceiling. And I was bummed: At the end of January, I waved my little white flag on Wallace’s offensive potential, saying “his baseline size and skill sets a firmer ceiling” than my imagination had.
When Shai and Ajay and Jalen Williams missed all or most of February, Cason stepped up for the ragtag OKC offense. At that point, he had scored 15 or more points just twice all season. He scored 20 or more six times the rest of the way. Wallace also racked up 6 or more assists a half dozen times in that span. The third-year guard has started finding more success using his speed to create advantages, and is developing more touch at the basket to pair with his three-point stroke (he’s 37.4% from deep for his career).
Jared McCain - '25-'26 (with OKC) 3PM per-36: 3.8
Age: 22 | Season: 2nd | Career highs: 3p% (38.5), TS% (60.8)
McCain has been a top-15 per-minute bomber since arriving in Oklahoma City. As a Thunder, Nails is converting threes at one of the highest rates (39.1%) in the shooters-who-shoot neighborhood. Despite a late-season swoon, McCain has shot better on the year than Klay Thompson, Trey Murphy, Desmond Bane, and Julian Champagnie.
cray
He's only played 90 career games while battling through injuries and rotation chaos in Philadelphia and Oklahoma City. How he fares in the playoffs and (especially) next season will say a lot about his ceiling and long-term fit with the Thunder.
3. It's complicated
Jalen Williams - '25-'26 AST%: 27.4
Age: 24 | Season: 4th | Career highs: AST (5.5), FT% (83.7), FTA per-36 (5.0)
I consider myself the biggest JDub believer in the world. As optimistic as I am about his ability to play when healthy, I'm still upset that he and his teammates missed out on a full year of development together.
Look, his shooting numbers aren't pretty this season. Returning to play against NBA defenses with pain, rust, and limited range of motion after wrist surgeries will do that to you. After catching up on shooting reps during the prolonged rest(s) from his hamstring injury, Williams says he's feeling much more comfortable now. His three-point volume just doesn't match that sentiment. As I keep reminding the world, I'd rather Williams shoot 30% on 2.4 attempts (this season) than 30% on 5 attempts (last postseason). But we'd all really prefer he shoot a lot more at a lot better clip.
What will help OKC survive JDub's shooting dip, if it remains? His playmaking improvement. While Hartenstein, Ajay, Cason Wallace, J-Will and others have stepped in nobly to handle more playmaking duties this season, they are all still well behind Jalen as distributors. After Shai, JDub is the Thunder player who can most reliably get to the spot and action of his choosing, regardless of the defender in front of him. And from there, he's shown an improving feel for making the right pass.
Aaron Wiggins - '25-'26 Defensive LEBRON: +.56
Age: 27 | Season: 5th | Career highs: Blocks per-36
It ain't easy finding much needle movement in Wiggins' development, which makes sense for a 27-year-old who has already exceeded expectations. His skillset is not one of a lockdown defender, and his improvements won't leap off the stat sheet. It's tough pointing to a single defensive stat to make the case that he's measurably improved, but my eyes agree with the Thunder coaching staff's positive assessment. He's consistently in better position and making smarter choices on D, even if it's still an uphill battle for him against some of the league's tougher physical assignments.
Can I offer you another pick-me-up Wiggs stat? He's 10th in career Win Shares from the 2021 draft class, in which he went #55. He's edged out all types in the imperfect stat that, if nothing else, captures production and contribution for a winning team: high upside Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga; value positive Quentin Grimes and Jalen Suggs; high floor Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell; and one of the San Antonio We're Smart Not Lucky Spurs' two top-12 castaways, Josh Primo.
Whether he gets squeezed from the playoff rotation, Wiggins has already built a career those players could envy, playing a meaningful role for a championship team across multiple seasons. He's more than earned his legendary Thunder status.
Lu Dort - '25-'26 3-point attempt rate: .708
Age: 27 | Season: 7th | Career low: Fouls committed per-36 (3.5)
Sweet Lu has not had a career year. He shot 34.3% from deep, below his career average. His estimated impact stats have plummeted, leaving him near the bottom of the league in most on/off and summary measurements for individual players.
But I can't find compelling evidence that Dort has lost a step on defense or truly been more of a liability to the offense. Opposing offenses still devote waves of screens and actions to spring some of the league's premier scorers from the Dorture Chamber. And despite the masses devoting waves of accusations and outrage after some primetime flagrants, Dort has had his cleanest season as a defender with the refs.
Dort's been more choosy as a shooter while struggling to find the net, taking the biggest portion of his shots from deep while attempting the second-fewest field goals per-minute of his career. He didn't have a very positive offensive footprint to begin with, so those ugly impact stats can be taken with a grain of salt.
Fans have been speculating about Dort's long-term fit on the cap sheet and in the pecking order for years. Signing with Klutch didn't slow down the speculation. But the more other guards improve (there are five I've rated above), the more Dort's value as a luxury stopper can be optimized. Especially in the playoffs, when Daigneault is likely to handcuff the bruiser's minutes to the stars he's slowing down. If he's just as capable in fewer minutes, I see no cause for alarm.
4. Ineligible: Nikola Topic: N/A (Rookie); Alex Caruso & Kenrich Williams (DNP-OLD)
OKC is better in 2026 than they were in 2025. So is their competition. The playoffs themselves are opportunities for development, and early experience for special players like Shai can pay dividends later. We'll see how the Thunder's next chapter plays out. It's still early.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider leaving us a tip to support our work.
Daily Thunder is supported by our readers and select advertisers. Your support helps us preserve the reader experience in an age of clickbait and pop-up spam. To maintain credibility and independence in our coverage, we do not accept gambling money of any kind.
Footnotes
- And probably won't be, in my humble opinion. Williams just has the size and vision to bite off more possessions as a modern point-wing. But this is my JDub appreciation talking, not a knock on Mitchell's (stupid high) ceiling.
