Thunder Weekly: Waiting for Wallace
On the Radar: Will Cason Wallace get extended this week?
Cason Wallace hasn’t been extended, and there’s been no hint of a deal aside from one social media post. As much as we’d like some encouraging summer news, there’s no reason to fret that nothing’s been announced. With an increasingly team-friendly market shaping up and no deadline until the eve of the regular season, there’s no reason for OKC to rush.
Of Cason Wallace’s 2023 rookie classmates, only Victor Wembanyama has signed an extension so far this summer. Max extensions tend to happen sooner, with negotiations around the margins. Last year, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams both signed max deals in early July. Like Wembanyama, Holmgren’s extension didn’t include Rose Rule escalators (which would have triggered this coming season). Jalen Williams’ did include the escalators, but his injuries kept him from earning the accolades that were likely to bump his salary as the deal kicked in. Unlike Wemby, neither received a player option on their deals.
I'm guessing OKC wants to see where the market lands with some other players, though none are a clean value parallel. Unlike Wallace, a presumed starter with an ambiguous offensive ceiling, most others gunning for a rookie-scale extension are either cemented as starters or projects losing steam. Brandin Podziemski (projected in some parts between $22MM-$24MM annually) has the most similar role profile, but he lacks an elite skill like Wallace's on-ball defense. There are some other comparable players getting extended by their home team or getting squeezed in restricted free agency. Julian Champagnie's deal ($15MM annual salary for 3 years) serves as a low-end marker. Per reports, Peyton Watson—a pricier player than Wallace on paper—has been offered somewhere in the measly range of $14MM-$17.5MM annually, but he wants more than $25MM.
While Caso is considered a much more valuable player due to his youth and capable shooting, it must be noted that he averaged virtually identical minutes, scoring, and three-point shooting as the departing starter he's likely to replace: Lu Dort. Dort was set to make $17.7MM this season.
On the one hand, Watson’s squeeze could give the Thunder reason to hold the line on a lower number as Wallace watches a version of what could be his own disappointing future play out. On the other hand, Denver is in a precarious position. Since they were nudged over the second apron by matching OKC’s offer sheet to Spencer Jones, the Nuggets have limited options if a team finds a way to meet his asking price. Without creativity and the cooperation of his new suitor, the Nuggets would have to choose between absorbing a massive tax penalty or letting him walk for nothing. There are also rumblings Watson could play on the qualifying offer if he doesn’t get the deal he wants—great for a single year of savings, no bueno for keeping him around beyond that.
I assume OKC is very comfortable securing Wallace this summer, even at a premium*. The Thunder will almost surely be in the second apron next summer, which would put them in Denver's position. OKC always prefers certainty over free agency for its players, and won't want to play restricted roulette.
My prediction: an even 4 years, $100MM extension will be announced in October.
*Presti losing confidence in the premium-now or premium-later price tag for Wallace and/or Ajay Mitchell specifically could help explain his tense bonus interview on the Dort trade. The team is still apron-proof as long as they are willing to keep players under contract, but just how much they'll pay to do so is unknown.
Thunder Bolts
- ICYMI @ Daily Thunder: Friday Bolts: Draft Spots, Roster Spots, Sand Lots... Saturday Morning Cartoons: Hills for the Hammies
- Keith Smith (Spotrac) got some thoughts from the Thunder front office and coaching staff on the Wallace extension, draftees Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz, and the trades of Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe: “Cason is a key player for us. Clearly, we want him in Oklahoma City for a long time. We’re hopeful of getting a deal done that makes sense for both sides,” a Thunder front office executive said.
- Chet Holmgren told Ben Golliver (ESPN) that he trusts the front office despite losing so many teammates this offseason: “That’s how the business of this game goes. No team, all 17 guys, sticks together forever. But it doesn’t make it hurt less when you see guys go. At the same time, I’m excited for (Dort and Wiggins) and the opportunity they’re going to have in Atlanta. I’m happy for whatever major milestones they reach over there.”
- John Hollinger found OKC's entire draft class disappointing during Summer League: "Stirtz looked thicker since his season at Iowa ended, as if he bulked up for draft workouts. A couple of scouts I talked to felt the same way I did and also felt that it took away some of his east-west mobility and fluidity. I’m interested to see how he looks physically when camp opens."
- Jared McCain is making an offseason documentary.
- Rylan Stiles (SI) on the open 15th roster spot for OKC: "Oklahoma City is no stranger to entering into a season with an open roster spot available. It provides flexibility and allows the season to unfold with injuries and/or play on the court, allowing you to dictate what you need. That flexibility can help facilitate trades, can be used to ink buy-out options following the trade deadline, or used to convert two-way pacts to a standard contract if the Thunder's second-round pick, Otega Oweh, proves to be worthy."
- Stiles says the pressure is on for Thunder ownership to pay up next summer.
- A look at Ajay Mitchell's contract situation:
- r/Thunder completed their all-time Thunder player grid. I don't take strong exception to many of these, but here are some of my dissenting votes:
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