Why Believe? Thunder Hope for Game 4
Game 4 Info: OKC vs. DEN (Denver leads series 2-1)
Tip-off: 2:30pm @ Ball Arena, Denver | Broadcast: ABC
The Thunder are down 1-2 to a team with championship experience and, arguably, the best player of this era. Losing in the playoffs sucks, and it feels worse when the reasons align with your worst fears: not that the other team had more talent, but that they had more heart, smarts, or black magic in their favor.
Listening to ESPN's Jay Bilas and, especially, Mark Jones call the Game 3 heavyweight match, it was almost as if the teams and announcers were sharing a script. The babyfaced Thunder were away from home, a loose grip on a modest lead over the grizzled, ain't-as-good-as-I-once-was Nuggets who were sure to have something up their sleeve in the end. Oklahoma City couldn't put Denver away in the closing minutes, as both teams' leading men needed help from their costars. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made one shot and zero free throws in the fourth quarter, same for Nikola Jokic. Both missed potential game winners in the final seconds of regulation, as the game went to overtime after the MVP frontrunners traded haymakers bricks. Overtime was a quick wrap, the home team cruising to a 7-0 opening run and never looking back.
It was a tough, defensive battle, but neither SGA or Jokic could complain about their support. Jalen Williams was the best player in the game, scoring 16 of his 32 points in the final frame. And Aaron Gordon, the top-5 pick who's become a supercharged role player in the vein of Shawn Marion or Andre Igoudala, grabbed timely boards and drained timely threes in the closing minutes.
All things told, Mr. Nugget led Jokic's title-tested coworkers to a firm series lead, with the chance to take the series by the neck in today's home game for the 2023 NBA champs. The broadcast closed with slow motion clips of Nuggets heroism (probably including Michael Porter, Jr. punching the air with his impossible-to-move shoulder) as Jones and Bilas ominously wondered "what [OKC's] temperament will look like" in Game 4.
Why Believe?
When the script seems so obvious, why believe that OKC can break their second-round ceiling, a year later and eleven-games in the standings stronger than last year's semifinals squad? Why argue with the numbers and the notion: up 2-1 in the series and 1-0 in been there, done that, Denver is now the ocbvious favorite to advance to the conference finals over Oklahoma City.
The emotions of Daily Thunder contributors--podcasters, beat writers, bloggers, live tweeters--are running hot, along with the fans'. Game 1 feels even worse now, regardless of where you pin the blame. Game 3 had one of us more despondent than the others:
I actually still believe in the Thunder to win the series in six or seven, even if they go down 1-3 today. Brandon Rahbar, our proud "sunshine pumper" will always put his stock in OKC's positive fundamentals, like leading for 83% of this series' minutes played. Ryan Woods, bless his heart, was ready to fire Mark Daigneault to save the series before Game 1 was over. John Napier has measured hope, but he's been hurt before. I'm sure you find yourself somewhere on the same spectrum between hopelessly distraught and strangely confident while trying to be a responsible sports fan on Mother's Day.
We all want to believe. Not just in surviving round 2, but in winning the championship. This the Thunder's time to prove their championship mettle. And guess what? There's more reason for Thunder fans to be hopeful than the national TV narrators suggest.
Game 3: Reinterpreted
Back to that script: "Denver is right where they want to be," Jones foreshadowed as the broadcast cut to break, the Nuggets trailing by 3 heading into the fourth quarter. MPJ and Aaron Gordon were chin-up, flexing and fighting to keep Denver in the game with confidence. The watching world was ready to embrace the youth vs. experience explanation, even though coaching strategy--between OKC's Coach of the Year and Denver's first-month head coach--has been highlighted as much as costly turnovers, fading role players, or other hallmarks of an inexperienced team losing to a wilier foe.
But Denver was losing. They were the underdog, scrapping to protect their tenuous home court advantage for the first of two games (today's contest being the second). The Nuggets rode an uneven, 22-point fourth quarter performance to overtime, where they finally steadied for their strongest stretch of Game 3 (and arguably, of the entire series).
The Nuggets did go on to win. They survived regulation and won a postseason game in overtime at home. Shai smiled on camera in response to a taunting fan afterward. It may have felt like one, but wasn't the end of a movie. Game 1 was a disaster, but Game 3 was not the end credits for OKC.
Miss Shai with the hate
The Thunder imposed their defensive force on the game, again. Despite Jones harping on the Thunder's "one and done" possessions incessantly, they muscled 18 offensive rebounds, a handful more than the league-best average. Shai missed more shots than usual, burdening himself with and failing to convert the lion's share of late possessions. But Shai deferred without losing his aggression, exactly as you'd hope a superstar to lead a grinding, tough playoff game.
“Losses always sting, especially in the playoffs. But what I would say is we are in the process of becoming a great team, and we’ve checked a lot of boxes in that process. One thing that it takes to be a great team is you get taken to the limit in the playoffs, and you’ve got a rise to the challenges that you’re confronted with.” - Mark Daigneault
The game became a little my turn/your turn between SGA and JDub in the first place because of Shai's smart, selfless handle on the Thunder steering wheel. Up 65-64 halfway through the third, Shai was responsible for scoring or assisting on 13 of the Thunder's 19 points to close the quarter and keep Denver "right where they want to be"--losing to OKC with their backs against the wall. JDub was 0-2 from three and 1-2 from the free throw line over the same stretch. Then, Williams scorched through fourth while Shai's shot faltered. JDub took 21 shots to Shai's 22, and SGA maintained an offensive balance that we used to dream Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant would have achieved.
The Thunder are not playing like an inexperienced team lacking poise and smarts. And in Game 3, the Thunder were never right where the Nuggets wanted them. Aside from the 120 very bad, WTF are they doing seconds that ended Game 1, they have not looked out of their element or smaller than the moment. The top eight Thunder lineups have a positive net rating. They are holding Nikola Jokic, a postseason legend, to 16.2% worse shooting than his regular season clip.
But like the Thunder of old, this OKC team has mostly won in the 2025 NBA Playoffs by force, not precision. As Daigneault has reiterated, the team has not executed well enough to win games as handily as they should, even if it has executed some of his late-game management with unfortunate results. It has been a make-or-miss series, not a battle of composure.
Shai doesn't need to take fewer shots than Jalen Williams. He needs to make more.
⚡Prediction: OKC 122 DEN 113
This is Shai's team, and that's still a very good thing. I expect to see an easier win thanks to a little precision and a lot of force, from the league MVP and his great, young supporting cast earning their championship-level experience right before our eyes.
