Podcast: Mara & Stirtz: WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
The Daily Thunder Podcast
Ryan and Cray take a deep breath...then let out all their frustrations.
- OKC's underwhelming return from the mega-hyped 2026 first round of the draft
- Brandon jumps in between radio duties to give us a splash of sunshine on Aday Mara's value at #12 and Bennett Stirtz's ability at #16
- Stuck at 12? Why the rumored Mavs trade seems farfetched in retrospect
- Not overreacting to what this means for OKC's other roster and cap decisions
- But WHAT DOES THIS MEAN for OKC's other roster and cap decisions?
- Cray's mispronunciations of several draftees
- Reading the Presti leaves moving into free agency
- The posture of Thunder ownership compared to other contending franchises
And much more. Listen up and let it out with us.
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The Conversation: Excerpts and full transcript
On Mara
Ryan: There are essentially five centers on the team. That's one-third of the roster. I understand taking Mara if they believed he was the best player available, because the board broke about as poorly as it could have at nine, 10, and 11. But it is a bunch of bigs. From a value standpoint, somebody they've invested in is going to lose minutes: last year's No. 15 pick in Sorber, this year's No. 12 pick in Mara, or Jaylin Williams after a three-year deal. Otherwise Mara simply won't play much early. He didn't even average 25 minutes per game at Michigan.
He's big and slow. He's a drop-coverage center, not a switchable big, and he cannot shoot. If what's coming is a Hartenstein trade, it makes a little more sense—and I want to emphasize “little.” Mara doesn't do enough of the Hartenstein things to simply slot him next to Chet
Brandon: Given how the board fell, I think Aday Mara was absolutely the right pick. He's 7-foot-3, an elite rim protector, can score in the paint, and the headline is his playmaking. His passing is outstanding for somebody that size with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. Getting him at No. 12, when some people thought he could go as high as six to Brooklyn, is great value. I would have preferred Morez, Burries, or Yaxel, but that's not how the board fell. I think it was best player available. I had him clearly ahead of Nate Ament and Dailyn Swain, whom I liked. Mara was the best player and the best value.
Cray: I don't see the future starting center next to Chet. Here are another player's measurements: 7-foot-1, 258 pounds, a 7-foot-9 wingspan, and a 9-foot-7 standing reach. That's Rudy Gobert, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year who was played off the floor and became a liability against the Spurs in the playoffs. We cannot think of Mara as a Wemby pick. That's unrealistic. It is a backup-center pick.
Part of our reaction is ordinary draft bias: We like the players who pop off the screen more than the ground-bound players. Morez is more exciting to watch and more exciting to track, even if I'm not sure how much more I truly would have believed in him.
On Stirtz
Brandon: As a player, I think he's outstanding: incredibly high IQ, a great shooter, and a great playmaker. He fits the dribble-pass-shoot archetype. He's 6-foot-4 in shoes with a 6-foot-6 wingspan. Look back at the Spurs series. Stirtz is a special playmaker, shot creator, ballhandler, and shooter. His IQ and effort are high enough, and his size and wingspan are adequate enough, that he can compete defensively when surrounded by Oklahoma City's elite defense.
And again, probably the best player available. Offense is ultimately what cost OKC against San Antonio once JDub and Ajay were out. You can't predict injuries, but if Oklahoma City had a Stirtz-type player while JDub and Ajay Mitchell were unavailable—and the Thunder still don't know what they have in Topić—another creator would have been very helpful. A high-IQ playmaker who can create and shoot would have been outstanding.
Ryan: Stirtz can shoot, no doubt. But given how much Presti has historically valued athleticism, I expected him to take the better athlete. Instead he chose the better processor and the higher-feel player, which is a direction Presti has leaned more recently. I was simply higher on Carr.
The defense is what stands out to me. Carr generated blocks and steals and used his athleticism in the passing lanes. I don't see as much of that with Stirtz. I expected Oklahoma City to choose the athlete who might stick or develop faster on defense. Presti is in that chair for a reason, and I'm not trying to dismiss both picks. But after the Spurs series, and given this roster, I didn't expect a 7-foot center and a 6-foot-4 guard. Those are the types of players this team already has in bulk.
On the value play
Cray: It's always talent and fit, and both are hard to discern. You're trying to read the roster-building philosophy and determine who they thought was most talented at the same time. That's not easy. Half the players taken from 1 through 16 probably won't become solid NBA players. Oklahoma City could have two of the really good ones, two lemons, or one of each. No general manager hits them all.
The simplest way to look at it is that the Thunder now have two young-player competitions: Sorber and Mara at backup center, and Topić and Stirtz at backup point guard. I don't know whether that's a summer competition or a regular-season competition. But it seems unlikely that all four young players at the extreme ends of the positional spectrum will carve out roles on a crowded championship rotation in the next two or three years.
Brandon: Right, I think it was best player available. You have to project beyond the next year or two. You have Hartenstein, Chet, and Sorber, but Mara is a really good prospect. He could eventually replace Hartenstein, serve as injury insurance for Chet or Hartenstein, and give you insurance if you don't know what you have in Sorber. Now you have two swings at finding a backup big in Sorber and Mara. If one hits, that's a huge win. If the Thunder took a 23-year-old at a position where they already have several players and gave up two second-rounders to move up one spot, they must value him very, very highly.
Ryan: Still, I like Brandon's point: After the board fell the way it did, Mara may simply have been the best player left. If the board gives you a highly regarded player whom you also value, you take him and figure it out later. That's how disciplined teams operate.
I'm still bummed about the night, mainly because of how the board fell. But I understand Mara at 12. There was a clear tier drop, like a fantasy draft where the players you wanted go immediately before your pick. You can reach into the next tier or take the best player who falls to you. Given what we know now, Mara probably profiles as the best player after the top 11. It's just a bummer that nine, 10, and 11 went exactly the way they did. We would have been much more excited if Morez had fallen to 12. I still would have complained about adding another center-only big, but Morez's athleticism, physicality, and ability to defend in space make the fit easier to see.
It's hard to see Mara and not immediately think about that negotiation, but this doesn't mean Hartenstein is definitely getting traded. Maybe the sides are simply too far apart on the number. Maybe the Thunder pick up his option and view Mara as a hopeful long-term replacement. That's almost word for word what we said about Thomas Sorber last year. Now they've drafted another center Sam Presti apparently wanted badly. Those dots feel connected.
Cray: I don't know if we should overread it. Presti has so many picks and only so many roster slots. But they do have 16 players for 15 spots, and that can change with the Hartenstein, Lu Dort, and Kenrich Williams decisions.
The Masai-versus-Presti poker match
Ryan: What a wrinkle that Dallas hired Michigan's head coach two days before the draft. There had been almost no noise other than Brayden Burries to Dallas at nine. Burries was available, and Dallas passed on him. Dusty May surely spoke with many NBA teams and front offices about his three Michigan prospects. He might have known exactly how every team felt about each one. He may have known that if Dallas wanted Morez, it couldn't trade into the back half of the lottery and still get him. That's a wild dynamic to introduce two days before the draft.
Cray: You have to assume May believed in Morez the most. It would have been strange for Dallas not to defer somewhat to the opinion of the coach who had just coached all three players. And the rumored Dallas trade was probably Masai Ujiri trying to extort Presti. Dallas was sitting at nine with Michigan's coach and three Michigan players on the board. If Masai couldn't convince Presti that Dallas might take Burries—or whichever player Oklahoma City wanted—Presti would have had to be very guarded about giving away his preference.
Ryan: I wonder whether Masai tried to bluff that Dallas wanted Mara to get more from Oklahoma City. Those calls would be fascinating to wiretap.
Cray: Masai versus Presti, playing poker over the phone. There's too much reverse psychology. If Presti signals which player he wants, Dallas wouldn't let him get that player at nine without extracting value. It becomes a hostage situation that probably was never going to work out in the Thunder's favor.
Ryan: Captain America and Iron Man in Civil War. If Presti really wanted Mara and Dallas knew it, perhaps Dallas bluffed that it was considering Mara at nine to get No. 12, No. 17, and possibly more. Then Dallas could move back and still hope for Yaxel, Morez, or Burries.
Cray: The question is whether Presti would've believed it. If he wanted Burries badly, he also wouldn't have wanted Milwaukee to get a chance at him.
Ryan: Milwaukee acquiring that second lottery pick changed everything
The unaddressed need for true wing size
Cray: Beyond the individual picks, the Thunder didn't get a wing at all, and they don't have much size on the wing. JDub has decent size and a great wingspan for a modern offense and defense, but he isn't a huge three. If he's playing the four, he's one of the Mighty Mouse guys playing up a position. Oklahoma City has size at the one and two, but not much true wing size.
Ryan: They now have three 7-footers and two 6-foot-9 guys in Sorber and Jaylin Williams who can only play center. Those aren't perimeter players. Jaylin can space, to his credit, and we've seen him play with Chet, but that's still considered a double-big lineup. J-Will is not a wing.
I left the Spurs series feeling pretty good about how Hartenstein guarded Wemby. I didn't leave thinking the Thunder had a serious Wemby-defense problem. I left bummed about the injuries and feeling like they needed more perimeter pop and more shooting. God bless Bennett Stirtz, but I don't think they addressed those things with two valuable picks in what feels like the last especially strong draft for a while.
Summer League and Topic's future
Ryan: I hope both Mara and Stirtz play in Summer League.
Cray: They have to. Mara needs to run, if nothing else.
Ryan: We have to be done with redshirt years. The Thunder aren't choosing the injuries that caused them, but they need real looks at these players early. If they're going to make decisions on Ajay, Hartenstein, Topić, or anybody else, part of the evaluation is knowing who would fill that roster spot. Part of the draft's value is resetting the contract timeline. You can't do that confidently if you haven't seen the young players on the floor. Get Mara and Stirtz as many Summer League minutes as possible.
Cray: Last season, the Thunder started 24-1 while JDub missed a large part of the season and postseason. There was more developmental time available than we'll probably see this season, assuming the team is pushed harder early and Jalen Williams plays more minutes. Wiggins is gone, but Jared McCain is now on the team. It will be a bloodbath for every second of playing time.
Ryan: I think Stirtz and Mara will both spend time in the G League. That's prudent when there aren't many NBA minutes available night to night. Topić won't play in Summer League and is expected back for training camp. Stirtz has an immediate chance to pass him. Neither projects as a strong defender right now. But Stirtz can shoot, including off the dribble, while also bringing the processing, pick-and-roll play, and decision-making that were supposed to be Topić's calling cards. The clock could start ticking quickly on Topić.
Cray: I'm rooting for Topić, but I would be disappointed if Stirtz weren't closer to Jared McCain's level of competition. Topić is at zero right now. He isn't a rotation player at all, and the Thunder just drafted an older, very polished guard.
Ryan: It's a bummer to say that two years after Topić was drafted. He's had an awful run of injuries and circumstances, but it's still true.
Cray: ACL surgery, cancer, and back surgery—it's hard to imagine a worse run. He was at the edge of fulfilling his dream, expected to go higher in the draft, and physically had none of these concerns. If and when he makes his way back, it will be a triumph. He just might not have enough time for it to happen in Oklahoma City.
Converting picks and contracts into players on the trade market
Cray: Even if the players selected behind Oklahoma City's picks become good, most are still heavy maybes. There are also veteran role players available in the NBA. They aren't easy to acquire when you're cap-strapped, but the Thunder have options.
Players will age out of the rotation, and others will get squeezed by the playing-time competition. Oklahoma City has contracts to move and enough draft sweetener to make trades. If an injury creates a major need, or if a player becomes dead weight in the rotation and they need help on the wing or perimeter, they can acquire someone. Every roster spot doesn't have to be replaced by a pick in the teens or 20s.
That's also why I would overpay Hartenstein if necessary. In the worst case, if the contract becomes an overpay, the Thunder have enough draft capital to move off it. They aren't a typical championship team that has mortgaged its future and owns one bad pick every other year.
Ryan: That's the more expensive route. Overpaying Hartenstein probably pushes them into apron territory that limits how they can trade and build.
Cray: But the apron also creates an argument for having larger contracts. When you can only make one-for-one trades and can't aggregate salaries, a larger movable contract can be more useful than several smaller ones.
Ryan: The asset still has to be healthy. It can't become so distressed and overpaid that nobody will trade for it. De'Aaron Fox could eventually become that kind of contract. Even without second-apron restrictions, nobody takes an overpaid guard straight up if the value has collapsed.
Cray: Not straight up. But a team can attach draft capital. The Spurs, for example, have enough picks to move a bad contract if needed--but it would be more painful for them. Their top talent end is excellent, but the Thunder are much deeper on the long-term roster sheet and still have one of the league's deepest well of picks. Presti would hate to spend a pick merely to dump salary, but the draft isn't the only way to keep filling the roster. Developing slowly, cheaply, and internally is Plan A. But Oklahoma City has other ways to stay in the contender circle.
The transcript
Lightly edited for publication
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