Factcheck: Shai Is NOT the Free Throw Merchant

I've challenged more online strangers than I'd like to admit with this claim: there is no evidence that Shai enjoys a significantly more favorable whistle than other volume scorers in the league.

The numbers certainly don't say so. After lots of debunked, lazy arguing, the critics–even the Twitter hivemind–now know better than to cite rudimentary counting stats like FTA as proof that Shai gets an unusually high number of fouls called. The per-game, per-playtype, per-minute, and per-possession numbers all point to a guard getting a typical rate of fouls called when penetrating at such a high frequency. His usage volume puts him in the top-5 of total foul drawers, but he hovers modestly above or below average on most free throw metrics.

Instead, the haters now say it's not how many calls he gets; it's how he gets the calls that draws their ire. They've abandoned counting stats and are resorting to counting clips–slow-motion examples of fouls awarded to SGA, typically recycled from social media posts, that they insist are baked into all of those otherwise modest foul-drawing numbers.

Shai recently offered his measured analysis: fans subjectively complain for and against fouls based on their rooting interest. Not content to let the nayshaiers cling to subjectivity regarding one of the greatest scoring performances of all time, I still call BS.

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The evidence is available

Twitter is always going tit-for-tat on the worst clips of foul drawing from Shai, Luka, Jaylen, Jokic, Wemby, etc. One or two clips pulled from hundreds of possessions every single night is the definition of anecdotal: these picks don't prove more than what we already know: players want free throws, and the refs miss some calls.

But the NBA makes almost all of its play-by-play film available, traced to every official box score, indexed and summarized by many third party sites. This query will return nearly 9 thousand relevant plays from a set of just five players, for example.

And there's plenty of Shai tape. SGA leads the world in drives and isos over the last four seasons, but has been a worse foul-drawer and foul-committer (think push-offs, jumper kicks, lunges into a vertical defender) by the numbers.

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If Shai is managing to collect 9 free throws per game with both modest skill and egregious baiting tactics, then we should be able to compare any decent sample of his play to that of any other scorer, spotting plenty of 'cheap' fouls SGA gets in distinction from the 'ethical' fouls drawn by his peers. If the haters are right, there should be several hours of tape demonstrating how Shai gets calls others don't under very similar conditions. There isn't. The mysterious Shai whistle would show up in comparative samples inside all those hours of footage. It doesn't.

An open challenge

Feel free to invite Daily Thunder will publish any post from a Shai skeptic that presents a comparative sample of SGA and any other player:

• 10+ similar plays each from Shai and another player, sequenced within a single game or period
• A tally of how many times each player unnaturally baited the defender (note when the shot was still made)
• A tally of how many calls each player was robbed of, granted legitimately, or gifted unfairly
• The projected impact on free throw numbers for the duration of the season, if the same type of call(s) were corrected consistently throughout the season.

Not another round of who-can-find-the-worst-clip. A full quarter, half, or game of comparable play. A small but real sample, the kind that Chris Finch incites the online mob over every time his team gets beat by Oklahoma City.

If we cannot debunk your stat tallies or counter with a bigger, equally comparable sample that refutes your pattern analysis? Congrats! You'll be the very first person to win a Free Throw Merchant argument against SGA using testable evidence.

Case study: The Lakers out-bait Shai

Because I was the one challenged by an online stranger this weekend, I'll start with their suggested games played this Saturday. Shai and the Thunder vs. the Wizards. Luka, Reaves, and the Lakers against the Magic.

I've included numbered pbp clips and references from both first halves in the footnotes. Anyone should be able to easily pull the matching box score clips and correct anything I've wrongly tallied.

Statistical context: All three players drove even more frequently than normal, creating more opportunities for missed or made foul calls. For the whole game, Shai earned 3x and-ones and one (1x) other shooting foul while driving 27 times. Luka & Reaves: one (1x) and-one, 3x other shooting fouls earned on 33 combined drives.

In the first half, Shai scored more than his average in both free throws (6) and points (20). Luka and Reaves were only at 3 FTA (way below their average) and 36 points combined. Normally SGA has a worse per-opportunity whistle than both Reaves and Luka, so this is the kind of outlier half where we should find the obvious, egregious grifting that juices Shai's numbers throughout the season. 

Analysis: Luka & Reaves baited more against a more disciplined defense in Orlando. It's tough to get to a clean interior look against the Magic, thus fewer drives, more stepbacks and lots of lurches from the Los Angeles playmakers. There was less baiting from Shai against a Washington team he could reliably beat off the dribble, with weak help at the rim and no ability for his matchup to recover and contest aggressively.

• Arguably, 1x call was missed for both Luka and Shai.
• Shai had an awkward/unnatural drive or shooting motion on 2x attempts, but both shots went in. Luka and Reaves converted on four of their 7x lunging/halting attempts.
• Luka and Reaves got more open looks off of 5x safe, 1x borderline push-offs than Shai (2x safe, 1x borderline).

Luka and Reaves got about one fewer shooting foul drawn than average against a solid defense, as did Shai against a low-resistance defense. If a correction was made to the one missed call against Luka, this would result in Luka getting 0.7 more free throws per game to add to his league-leading attempts. If Shai doesn't get that extra call, he would end up with 1.1 fewer attempt per game (still top-10, below Devin Booker and above James Harden). In other words, Shai would remain a mediocre but high-volume foul-drawer if called less favorably than Luka, whose numbers would look a little more elite.

All in all, these games check out to reinforce the typical, fairly called behavior from the players and refs involved. Shai gets standard treatment by the refs while scoring more lethally everywhere else on the court.

Verdict: Not the Foul Merchant.

Footnotes

• He racks up more turnovers (offensive fouls) doing it, but Shai is better at creating midrange space with legal push-offs. I suspect annoyance at these disciplined, restrained arm extensions by SGA will eventually focus the beating drum against the rule itself.
• If Luka got calls every time he complained, he'd average approx. 218 free throws per game.
• A reliable stepback might break the game for Shai. Luka's defenders make obvious cessations, conserving their position to contest his deepest shooting zones and the rim. Shai's defenders get away with constant perimeter pressure, impeding Shai's drive early without the fear he'll punish them with a stepback.
• Wide open shots, bad turnovers, and other non-shooting outcomes that I deemed irrelevant to the whistle were stripped from the video. They're available in the box score, of course.
• First half Shai drives and iso opportunities: 2/2 shooting on awkward motion, 2x safe push-offs, 1x borderline push-off, 3x fouls called, ~1x call missed. (see matching clips above)
  • 1 - body contact on the drive, SGA legal push-off before fading away from defender and toward a more makeable shot. no call
  • 2 - mildly awkward deceleration layup in transition, no call
  • 3 - legal arm swiping at perimeter by Shai and defender, borderline push-off on drive, no call
  • 4 - legal off push off, no call
  • 5 - incidental contact, no call
  • 5.FOUL - defender jumps into shooting space
  • 6 - legal position and contact before and during the shot, no call
  • 7 - legal position on the drive and finish, no call
  • 8 - legal swiping before the drive, no contact on shot. no call
  • 9.FOUL - hands in the cookie jar, foul called on mildly awkward but made lunging bankshot
  • 10.FOUL - legal feet shuffling, but a body wrap on the drive and jump, non-shooting foul drawn
  • 12 - borderline body contact throughout drive and finish, arguably a missed call
  • 13 - no contact, no foul
• First half Luka Doncic:  3/5 shooting, 1 TO on awkward motion, 3x safe push-offs, 1x borderline push-off, 1x foul drawn, ~1x call missed. (see matching clips above)
  • 1 - no contact or contest, no call
  • 3 - no contact, no foul
  • 4 & 5 - tries to draw contact from behind on mildly awkward deceleration floater, no call. Gets offensive board and finish with no contact
  • 8 - minor body contact on deceleration drive that Luka tries to collect a foul on. shot made, no call
  • 9 - legal swiping, no contact on shot. no call 
  • 10 - legal push off, no body/arm contact on aggressive contest. made shot, no call
  • 11 - body contact under the rim, arguably a missed call
  • 13.1 - flailing shot trying to earn a rip-through. turnover, no call
  • 13.2 FOUL - legal push off, hands in the cookie jar, awkward jump to draw contact. shot made, foul drawn
  • 14 -borderline push-offs and body contact initiated by Luka. shot made, no call. 
  • 15 - legal push-off, no call
  • 16 - awkward path to the rim, trying to initiate unnecessary contact at the rim. no call
• First half Austin Reaves: 1/2 shooting on awkward motion, 1x safe push-off, 1x borderline push-off, 1x foul drawn, 0x fouls missed. (see matching clips above)
  • 0 - foul called on body contact forced by Reaves' footwork
  • 1 & 2 (same clip) - no contact, no call. then mild swipes on ball before the shot, no call
  • 4 - awkward lunge, defender leans away and gets hands out of the cookie jar. made shot, no call
  • 5 - arguable push-off, no call
  • 6 - legal guarding position, behind-his-body contact drawn by flailing. no call.
  • 7 - legal push off, no call
  • 8 - legal swiping and body contact from perimeter to rim, no call