By the time this article runs, the Thunder will have played their first game, and, Gary England willing, be 1-0 after stomping the Kings.  That’s going to happen.  If it doesn’t, you probably shouldn’t pay any attention to my predictions for the rest of the season.

Key to the Season: Jeff Green

Sure, Kevin Durant is the team’s best player, and James Harden is the rookie ingenue that is supposed to fill the holes the team had last year.  No one is going to dispute that.  The guy who will have the biggest influence on how this season turns out for the Thunder, though, is the glue guy–Jeff Green.

For the Thunder to reach the unfair expectations being heaped onto them by much of the national media, Jeff Green is the guy who has to get to that next level.  When he was drafted, the thought was that he would be as Scottie Pippen was to Michael Jordan for Kevin Durant.  And, honestly, I think he can fill that role.  For now, though, I’d just like to see him strive to be like David West.  If he can consistently bring his A-game, improve his rebounding, and silence the detractors that say he is too small to play power forward (much like West dealt with before the Hornets arrived in OKC), the Thunder will easily improve on their win total from last season, and with luck challenge for a playoff spot.

Even if he does not, I think Green will do a lot for the team fresh off being named a team captain.  While I don’t think I’ve seen this mentioned anywhere, it was Green who I saw motivating his teammates this Summer, by publicly calling on them to get to the gym (via Twitter).  It might have just been that he didn’t understand you could send messages directly to people with Twitter accounts, but I prefer to look at it as him cracking the whip.

When will James Harden become the starting SG: Not this year

This might be my boldest prediction.  Taken third overall, Harden has to be expected to be an immediate difference maker.  Otherwise, you would have to think Presti would have gone with the Spanish sensation, Ricky Rubio, even if the team would have to wait a couple of years to bring him over to the U.S. (which is debatable).  The expectation is that Harden will fill the hole at shooting guard and be a better shooter and better defender than we saw at Arizona State.

The thing is, people forget about how much of an impact Thabo Sefolosha made for the Thunder last season.  I know I did.  That is, until I saw a couple of pre season games and remembered just what  great defense he brings to the floor, and it appears he might have improved his shooting stroke.  Meanwhile, watching James Harden, I saw exactly what I expected to see from a rookie.  He was streaky shooting the ball, a little overwhelmed handling the ball, and disappeared much of the time he was on the floor even though I was specifically keeping an eye on him.

Plus, if you look at good teams, most of them tend to have a guy like Thabo in the starting line up.  For instance, Denver last season had a super talented offensive weapon in J.R. Smith, but they started Dahntay Jones who from a stat sheet standpoint doesn’t make near the impact.  And the Spurs, have chosen to bring their second best player, Manu Ginobili, off the bench in favor of keeping Bruce Bowen (before his defensive skill deteriorated) in the starting five.

I look for Sefolosha to continue as the Thunder starting two guard indefinitely.

Kevin Durant’s scoring average: 25.3

How did I come up with that number?  It’s precisely the number of points he averaged last season.  And if he has that number, I would still chalk it up as a better season for the budding superstar.

As the team grows around him, Durant is not going to be counted on to carry the whole scoring load.  And for us fans, that’s the way we want it.  Watching him put up gaudy numbers because his teammates defer to him entirely and let him jack as many shots as Kobe in the post-Shaq/pre-Pau era, we’ll be watching a team much like the Iverson-led 76ers.  In essence, a team going nowhere.

Thing I’m going to complain about most this year: Nick Collison’s mustache (or lack-thereof)

You cannot tease me that you are going to grow a handle bar mustache with the inner half shaved and then not do it.  I refuse to let this go silently.  I’m picturing a reverse Hitler mustache, or else Rollie Fingers’ mustache if he only grew it from the part of the lip near the corner of the mouth.  Either way, endless entertainment for me, a guy who loves Landry Jones’ stache even though I hate Sooner football.

If Collison ever follows through, it will synch the University of Kansas as the place for weird hair.  Between the “Absolute Value Stache” (as Collison coined the facial hair he hasn’t grown), Drew Gooden’s skullet, and everything Scot Pollard has done with his hair, every rebellious teenage giant with elite basketball skills will be wanting to head to Lawrence.

Other thing I’ll be complaing about too much: Russell Westbrook’s decision making

Looking at the box scores of the first few pre season matchups I was optimistic that Westbrook’s game was developing as the anti-Rubio crowd suggested.  His turnover numbers were much smaller and assist numbers much higher than I had come to expect.  Then, I actually watched the Miami game and was left with the same tidal wave of conflicting emotions while watching him run the team.

The most upset I got was at the end of the game.  Holding onto a three point lead, Westbrook rebounded a Heat miss with 22 seconds to go.  With the shot clock turned off, he went coast to coast with the ball and fired up a wild lay up attempt that came nowhere close to the rim.  Luckily, Etan Thomas bailed him out by grabbing the offensive rebound and getting fouled.  But, the fact that Westbrook acted like it was a 2-for-1 situation rather than a victory-formation point of the game suggests to me that his basketball IQ still leaves a lot to be desired.

First Player to be Traded: Conditional second-round pick

The Thunder still have around $10MM in cap space.  As the season progresses and the economy continues ravaging team owners, there will be a lot of teams begging Presti to help relieve them of salary.  I suspect Sam Presti will sit on his hands patiently waiting for a team with high expectations (and high salary commitments) fall out of the playoff hunt and give the Thunder a talented player for nothing.

The New Robert Swift: B.J. Mullens

I saw this guy at P.F. Chang’s last Friday while he was waiting for a table.  It’s probably more than I’ll see of him at any games this year.  But, for those who are wondering, his eyebrows were immaculately manicured.

Fan Favorite: Serge Ibaka

<Bad pun alert>  This guy is going to bring a Serge of energy every time he gets on the floor.  </Bad pun alert>

What I’ll be doing tonight: Watching FC Barcelona on ESPN360

I would suggest everyone else do the same.  Looking at the team roster, they appear to be the Yankees of Spanish basketball.  I’d say Lakers, but I’m guessing the Spanish League doesn’t have salary caps or no way FC Barcelona assembles this much talent.  Their roster is a virtual who’s who of international talent not currently in the NBA.

They start Fran Vazquez, who shunned the Magic after being drafted #11, at center.  Their power forward is former Michigan State star Erazem Lorbek (backed up by a former NBA player Boniface N’Dong), and Pete Mickael who used to star for Cincinnati finishes out the front line.  Their off guard is Spanish superstar and former Grizzlie Juan Carlos Navarro (who bailed after one season in Memphis because they traded Pau Gasol).  Then, at point guard is the guy we could have drafted, Ricky Rubio.

I would suggest everyone with access to ESPN360 check these guys out.  Then, cry yourself to sleep that we won’t have Rubio to watch in person in Oklahoma City.

Team wins for the season: 32

Sure, 32 wins doesn’t sound like a lot, but a nine game improvement is massive in professional basketball.  For the Thunder, that would be a 39% more wins than last year.  While I would love for The Columnist Who Shall Not Be Named to be correct and for the team to be challenging for a the eighth seed and flirting with a .500 record…I’m a realist.  If the team can post more than thirty wins and be in the game during the fourth quarter night in and night out, that will be enough improvement to make me happy.

About a year ago, Patrick wrote a post that dogged the gameday production of the Thunder and gave advice on how to improve.  It was only as harsh as it was true.  The worst of the vitriol, and probably the most deserving, belonged to the game emcee, Jonathan Meisner:

Hire a Game Emcee who doesn’t make me want to punch the Game Emcee in the face.The guy pictured above is Jonathan Meisner.  Jonathan is the “in arena game emcee” for the Thunder.  He’s also a recruiter for Southern Nazarene University. Yeah…the Thunder put a Nazarene college recruiter  in charge of entertaining an NBA crowd.  That makes as much sense as Jim Traber working at the library.

Seriously, how could they hire this guy!?!  Not only is his audition video terrible, but he has to wear his hat backwards to look remotely “cool” and “fresh.”   Instead, he looks like some annoying kid asking his mom for the Sunny D or the purple stuff.

He was, in my opinion, the worst part of the Thunder experience, and that included watching P.J. Carlesimo coach.

Thankfully, it turns out that Meisner either quit or was let go because the Master of Ceremonies at the Ford Center this season will be a two headed monster that includes comedian Joel David and a OklaTravelNet co-host (the girl, Katie Kurtz, not Brent Skarky).  This is definitely an upgrade.

As opposed to an SNU recruiter trying to fire up a crowd, they actually hired people experienced with performing.  David, in fact,  has some edge.  Check out his blog, or listen to one of his podcasts.  He uses words that Meisner would respond to with, “Um!  I’m telling mommy.”  And yes, I’m sure the Thunder are giving him strict instructions to keep his schtick PG when standing in front of all the Edmondites in the lower bowl, but you can count on him not considering use of the word “yo” and talking with his hands as sufficient personality.  With his background in stand-up comedy, too, one can be assured that he will use his practice with crowd play to keep us interested during time outs.

Of course, once I have actually seen him and Katie (and Katie’s “Little House on the Prairie” bangs) during games, odds are I’ll turn on them, as well.  For now, though, I am pumped at the new era of game presentation.

Throughout my life, I have been pretty tough on referees.  When playing intramural/rec league basketball, I have been known to blame the guys in black and white stripes for everything from a blown call to world hunger.  Watching games on television, without the risk of getting T’d up, I have been even less kind.

Now that you know this about me, it will come as no surprise to you that my initial reaction to news that the NBA referees union was being locked out by the league offices was less than sympathetic.  “Good riddance,” I thought to myself, “how could the replacements be any worse?”

Then, dread spread down my spine as I began to realize, “they could be a lot worse.”

As infuriating as the NBA referees can be, see here, they do have a ton of training and experience that scabs called up from the D-League/CBA/NCAA, or wherever they find replacements, cannot replicate.  And that shortfall is only the biggest problem assuming the league was able to get the best non-NBA referees available…but that is not the case.  Guys who have the objective and talent to eventually officiate NBA games for a living probably turned down the opportunity to fill in.  If they did cross the picket line, they would lose out on future benefits afforded by the referee’s union.

So we aren’t talking just about replacement referees, we are talking about bottom of the barrel referees.  Oh, joy!

On the flipside, some of that experience that the seasoned zebras possess, can actually be a detriment that these green, over-their-head scabs could actually improve upon the normal product.  Because of these conflicting ideas, I have a pro/con list regarding this lockout after the jump.

PRO: Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan’s heads might explode

Everyone knows that superstars in the NBA play with a different rule book.  They sell the tickets, so the referees have learned to alter their calling of fouls/violations to benefit those players whose jerseys sell the best.  These new guys, though, will not have learned to do this.  To them, LeBron James will get just as much leeway for reaching in on the dribble as rookie Chase Buddinger.

Superstars will not like this.  Particularly, the afforementioned Kobe and Duncan who get the superstar treatment and still act like they are getting hosed by the calls.

CON: Kobe and Duncan might get the calls they always wanted

There is a reason that superstars get the calls from those referees, and a lot of it has to do with how they exert that star power.  Zebras get star struck and give those players advantages.  These inexperienced guys could very well be more susceptible.

CON: Kevin Durant is one of those superstars

If the situation is like the first, he won’t get the foul call when doing his up and under move.  If it is like the latter, he still won’t get the calls because he doesn’t antagonize the referees.  Lose/Lose.

CON: Games will feature a lot more foul calls

One thing veteran officials know is that some contact that would normally be called fouls makes no difference when it comes to the world’s fastest, strongest, most talented basketball players.  That lovetap on Shaq’s wrist that had no hope of dislodging the ball might be overlooked by an experienced NBA referee, but the new guys are going to call it because, by the book, it is a foul.  The downside is that games will be much longer, and feature a lot more boring free throws.

PRO: The Thunder are pretty good at free throws

Making lemonade out of lemons, our team is pretty good at cashing in their free throws–particularly the guys who create contact.  The worst free throw shooter of the Thunder starters was Jeff Green who shot 79%.  Also, the bottom four free throw shooters from last year’s team are gone.  That means extra fouls should be free points for Oklahoma City.

PRO: When the referees suck, there will be an excuse

CON: There will be an excuse for the referees sucking

CONCLUSION: Still don’t know.