Pretty straightforward. Hollinger says KD should start over Carmelo Anthony:
Both players are high-volume scorers who constantly get to the line, rebound well for their position, have low assist rates and have substantially improved their once-laughable defense. Anthony leads the league in scoring while Durant is third, with the margin between them (0.9 points per game) close enough that either could end up first at season’s end. Durant has shot more efficiently, helped by his 86.9 percent mark from the line, but Anthony has won more.
What it ultimately came down to for me was availability. Durant hasn’t missed a game; Anthony has missed five. In a race this close, that matters, and it’s why I give Durant the nod. Anthony fans needn’t worry, however — back in the real world, he’s going to win the voting by a wide margin.
This is the second-most difficult choice on the ballot, as Durant and Carmelo Anthony have essentially equal résumés. If somebody wanted to pick Carmelo, I don’t think I could generate a strong enough case for Durant to change his mind. Of course, the opposite is also true.
Of course you won’t hear any disagreement from me. ‘Melo will obviously will start because of the fan vote, but I like the fact people are giving KD credit in the “deserves to start” area. Last year, it was that he deserved to be an All-Star. Now he deserves to start the All-Star game. I like this progression.
Commentary
John Hollinger, Kevin Durant
I’m not getting ahead of myself here. I’m not going to start talking about the p-word until at least late January. But if other people want to, by all means.
Get it? Hold your hor-- ah nevermind.
Oklahoma City has got a seriously tough December ahead and some difficult January games. But regardless, Hollinger still projects 48 wins, with a best case scenario of 64-18 and a worst case of 28-54. (Hollinger’s Playoff Odds)
Right now Hollinger has the Thunder’s playoff odds at a solid 82.5 percent. Remember though, that’s as of RIGHT NOW. That could change drastically with a five-game losing streak. Right now though, he puts OKC’s NBA Finals chances at 8.8 percent, which is right where Utah, Houston and Miami sit. The Thunder has a 4.9 percent chance to win it all. I just peed a little.
He gives the Thunder the second best chance to win the Northwest Division (19.6 percent) behind the Nuggs who hold a 60.6 percent chance. The Lakers are his favorite to win it all, in a series with Boston. Ooooh fun.
The thing about the Thunder that’s most encouraging is that conventional wisdom says this team is only going to get better as the season goes along. So as the team sits at 11-9, you have to keep in mind that the deeper we go, the better Kevin Durant will get. Russell Westbrook will get more confident. James Harden more comfortable. Jeff Green more assertive. Roles better understood and defined. This team is young and young teams improve. Just like last season, I suspect this team is going to play its best basketball later in the year, especially since the schedule gets much easier in March and April. (UPDATE: Hollinger’s comments about OKC after the jump) Read more…
Commentary
John Hollinger
ESPN’s smart guy, John Hollinger, released his 2009-10 player ratings for the season today. He had something to say about every Thunder player, but his comments on Kevin Durant are what most folks are talking about. He said (Insider):
Durant projects to lead the league in points per 40 minutes and to log one of the league’s largest PER increases, a sentiment that most observers would echo based on how he performed in the second half of the season.
The fact he will score is unquestioned; it’s his development in the other phases of the game that will define how high his star ascends. Durant exhilarated observers with his scoring ability last season, but his inability to pass or defend didn’t translate into superstar production. If Oklahoma City is going to turn the corner, it has to start with its marquee player becoming more well-rounded.
Wow. Projects to lead the league in scoring per 40 minutes. Last year, KD averaged 25.6 per 40 minutes (which is basically his average). This year he’s got him at 30.6 points per 40. He’s got his numbers at 49.2 percent from the field, 87.5 from the line and true shooting at 59.2. Rebounds per 40 basically the same, assists about the same (2.8 to 3.1), his usage up to 29.1 and his PER going from 20.85 to 23.50. And as we’ve all said all year long, the second KD rounds out his game (he’s just 21!!!), the second he jumps out of this world. Read more…
Commentary
John Hollinger, Kevin Durant
