Daily Thunder.com

I love how people immediately doubt Presti’s moves just because he didn’t take a guy you happen to like. Now of course everyone likes different players and we all have our thoughts, but the thing is, we don’t know about these guys yet. It’s pretty stupid to grade a draft before a guy ever plays. Just like I wrote about in my “What makes a bust” column, we don’t know how this will turn out. We could be calling the Timberwolves draft a major “F” in two years and crowning the Knicks as the huge winners. We just really don’t know.

But we all have our opinions about how OKC did, so let’s grade away anyway. Everybody’s doing it.

First pick: James Harden, shooting guard, Arizona State

It’s amazing how much momentum Ricky Rubio picked up in OKC over the last week. The fan pick went from Harden to Rubio faster than you can say Thabust. But we forget something all along – what’s the one position most everyone agreed needed to be addressed most? Shooting guard. And what did Oklahoma City draft? The best shooting guard in the draft. So how exactly is that a bad thing? Rubio would have been nice and he would have been cool. I probably would have bought a Rubio jersey. I’m sure every NBA 2K10 franchise would have been started with the Thunder. We would have been the coolest, most exciting team in the league.

But if “exciting” and “cool” doesn’t help you win games, then what do I care? Besides it’s not like Harden makes the team uncool. We’re still superfly if you ask me. Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, Somebody still looks pretty sweet methinks. And if I hear one more person say Harden is unathletic I’m going to throw myself down an empty elevator shaft. Look at his combine numbers people. LOOK!

I understand the Rubio love. I got hooked too. But did he really fill a need? And how sure are we he was even the best player at that position? Was he really that type of talent that you re-arrange your roster for? I’m not sure. If you think so, well bully for you. Sam Presti didn’t.

I flip-flopped on Rubio for a month. I still like the guy a lot but with news coming out that he may stay in Spain another year and that he’s not thrilled about Sota shows he may have been more trouble than he was worth. It’s doubtful Rubio will step on the court and play 30 minutes a night as a starter. I fully expect Harden to do exactly that. David Aldridge (who I think is pretty smart) already has Harden penciled in as his Rookie of the Year.

I really don’t know what’s not to like about this pick. Not only do you fill a need, but you do it with possibly the best player available. What’s bad about that?

Grade: A+ Read more…

Commentary 2009 Draft

Bret of Hoopinon has put together an extensive spreadsheet of statistics for this year’s draft prospect crop. It’s really something else. He’s got sortable stats on 92 prospects. So yeah, it’s extensive. (Google docs are really incredible by the way. You can even chat with others viewing the spreadsheet. Safe to say, when I realized this, my mind was blown. Also, to sort the stats, go to “view” and click “list view.” Then click each category to sort just like you would on a video game.)

Bret says to keep this in mind though:

Possessions are estimated (in most cases) from end of season cumulative stats so there’s a decent margin for error (Usage rates ran high — 12 to 18% higher than at kenpom.com though he doesn’t specify which usage formula he uses — so I deleted that column) and stats may not equal a player’s official season totals as I subtracted (both from team and player) any stats compiled against non-Division 1 competition. Plus, I’d be shocked if there’s not a data entry error or five in there somewhere.

There’s so much info there to digest, I feel like I’d need to commit three or four days to comprehend it all. What’s crazy, is that Sam Presti has a guy doing precisely that, all season long. Crunching numbers, understanding key stats and using them to help make informed decisions. There’s great stuff like free throw rate, eFG%, true shooting percentage, assist per 100 possessions and on and on. All the advanced stats some love so much, but for all these prospects.

I definitely don’t think stats like this are the end all, be all, but they are useful. I more lean to how good of a basketball player a guy is based on what I see, rather than what some numbers say. But you really need to use the two together to be a well-rounded basketball person. Interesting to see that James Harden’s true shooting percentage is actually higher than Steph Curry’s. Ty Lawson was tops on the list (and in the country last year) in assists per 100 possessions.

Tyreke Evans was last (or first, depending on perspective) in turnovers per 100 with Curry and Harden close behind. Lawson was 23rd in that category, which is rare because the top 20 is mostly just big men and others that didn’t handle the ball a lot. One other thing that caught my attention was how much Curry got to the free throw line. When you’re as good a shooter as he is, getting to the line is as free of points as you can get.

Commentary 2009 Draft, Advanced Stats