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Wednesday Bolts – 12.21.11

Kevin Durant is the first recipient of the new “Rose Rule” and because of that, will receive an extra $14,860,519 over the span of his five-year extension. He also earns an extra $2,584,438 this season, which actually puts the Thunder OVER the cap.

Rob Mahoney of the NYT on KD’s new Dirk move: “He’s looking for resources, and for people who – whether they’re cognizant of it or not – can teach him. Durant didn’t need a workout session and photo op with Hakeem Olajuwon or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but a heavy dose of film and hours in the gym for quiet implementation. And though Durant would be the first to tell you that this is only the beginning of his work with Nowitzki’s particular fade, he’s taken a step in developing an unorthodox post game.”

Sebastian Pruiti of Grantland on James Harden and the pick-and-roll: “When using ball screens, Harden posted a PPP of 0.963. That put him in the top 8 percent of all players, and it’s this success that has led many observers to believe that Harden is the Thunder’s best choice when it comes to initiating offense. That may not be the case. I like Harden more on the wing, running pick and rolls from the side of the court as a shooting guard position. Harden was extremely efficient on pick and rolls from both wings (1.222 PPP/top 3 percent on the left side and 1.071 PPP/top 17 percent on the right), but he struggled on high screens at the top of the key (0.966 PPP/65th percentile).”

John Hollinger of ESPN.com has OKC as his top team in the West: “Nonetheless, the Thunder have talent galore and are my favorite to win the West. They have a pristine cap situation, arguably the league’s best general manager in Sam Presti, and an enviable home-court advantage they’ll likely have for three straight playoff series. But I still think they need more shooting and a bit more defense to take the final step.”

TBJ loves our new Beard shirt.

Kevin Pelton for ESPN.com has OKC as a favorite: “Although Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rightfully draw most of the attention, it’s the youthful duo of third-year players James Harden and Serge Ibaka, both 22, that could make the difference for the Thunder as they continue to grow in the key roles they took over after Oklahoma City traded Jeff Green to the Boston Celtics. The Thunder also get the benefit of a full season with a healthy, skinny Kendrick Perkins in the middle. Look out.”

Check out the new Basketball Prospectus preview.

Darnell Mayberry on last night’s game: “Cole Aldrich got the minutes ahead of Nazr Mohammed and ended up stealing the show tonight. Already, Aldrich looks tons better than he did last year. Tonight, he blocked four shots, tied Perk with a team-high eight boards, tied Westbrook with a game-high three steals and added six points (including a surprisingly sweet reverse layup) to his stat line. If I had to describe Cole’s performance tonight in a word, it’d be active.”

CBSSports.com’s power rankings have OKC No. 2.

How are people liking the new comment system for games? The live updating good or bad?

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OkcBaby 171 pts

Iam so glad Presti is in the head office. I ll take Brooks over some of these moronic posters on here. hahaha Anytime I want to throw something at the TV with some of the things Brooks does, I ll just read some of these comments:)

DXL 30 pts

Hollinger has Denver as the surprise #2 team in the West, citing its roster depth (compares to Portland Trailblazers reaching WCF in 1998-99 lockout season with its waves of depth).

I hope Brooks has studied the lockout season and has a strategy for dealing with the shortened schedule. This is the kind of wild season (very few wins will separate playoff seeds in the West) that requires a veteran coach's wisdom.

The Thunder might end up really needing contributions from someone like Aldrich, Jackson, Hayward or Reid. Teams that don't go 10 or 11 quality players deep are going to have trouble.

f5alcon 273 pts

DXL in the west or in the division?

DXL 30 pts

f5alcon Denver #2 in the West!

f5alcon 273 pts

DXL wow, i dont see that happening, while they do have depth, it is a lot of new pieces, and chandler and jr smith are better than their replacements. i think denver will be better when playoffs roll around and they are a playoff team, but i still think it is 1. thunder, 2. dallas 3. spurs 4. memphis 5. clippers 6. lakers 7. portland 8. denver

Steve H 30 pts

DXL Hollinger is nuts. In the east he has NY at 7 and Indiana at 6 (those teams should battle for home court in the first round), while he has soon to implode/did nothing to improve Orlando at 4 and paper thin Boston finishing 3rd? Can't believe that guy is getting paid for his opinions.

DXL 30 pts

steve H The Knicks are much thinner (and injury-prone) than Boston. Not much there after their Big 3.

Steve H 30 pts

DXL steve I don't think either squad (Bos/NY) is a legit contender, but I do think they are clearly moving in opposite directions. The Knicks WILL be better with the addition of Chandler. The C's are talking about playing KG at the 5- and are older than dirt. They will make the post season, but I will be shocked if they do it as a top 4 seed.

f5alcon 273 pts

Steve HDXL the east doesnt sound too unrealistic though i would probably switch indiana and orlando.

Bryson 5 pts

...if Kevin Durant is the first to receive the 'Rose Rule' shouldn't it be called the Durant Rule...?

f5alcon 273 pts

Bryson the rule was still changed for rose

JimboSlice 198 pts

we may be overstating maynor's value as well here. The free agent class of 2013 is absolutely loaded at point guard. This year was weak, and JJ Barea only took home $4.75 mil. Maynor's value could very well be the same or lower in that class. In that price range, we might just be able to keep him without going over the luxury line. Especially if we move Thabo, Nazr, or Cook before that summer.

THUNDERCATS 19 pts

JimboSlice Yeah maybe we Trade Thabo and cook. Or let them walk and we can keep maynor. im not a big maynor guy but i do see his value in making everyone on the second unit better. plus R jack can probably defend most SGs with his length. excluding big ones like kobe,iggy,etc. but most bench SGs arent all that tall

f5alcon 273 pts

JimboSlice we will probably give him some offer, if he turns it down and becomes RFA we might match if it is reasonable

fearthebeard 6 pts

new commenting system is great on my Mac but horrible on my iPhone. also the mobile site no longer works.

Royce Young 72 pts moderator

fearthebeard Yeah the mobile plugin messes with the actual site for some reason so I had to disable it.

DXL 30 pts

Aldrich is waaaay better than last year, but needs to improve his hands and ball security. He competed for every loose ball but too many of them slipped out of his grasp or out of bounds (That doesn't happen very often to Nick Collison).

f5alcon 273 pts

DXL the reduced camp is probably hurting aldrich right now with the ball security thing

jameshardensbeard 16 pts

DXL i'd say serge needs to work on his hands even more so..

DXL 30 pts

Reggie's going to be fine, but his game's not polished right now. The shooting looks spotty and there's was at least one aimless dribble-drive to the basket that ended up as a turnover. Maynor also looked a bit rough with the turnovers but I trust that he'll tighten it up in the regular season.

f5alcon 273 pts

DXL yeah i think jackson will be fine in a few months

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

Especially in a condensed season like this, is there a better bench group in the league than Maynor/RJ, RJ/Cook, Cook/Thabo, Nick, Cole/Nazr? No way. That is a steller efensive group and one that can definitely score against the other team's backups. That team might be better than a coupe Eastern Conference teams! There is absolutely no reason for Thabo to start over The Beard. It's nice to hear Brooks maybe relenting a little bit in the media, " I don’t know who’s going to fill that (6th man) role this year, or it might be the same guy," but if he doesn't make the adjustment soon then.. Well it's just not very smart.

yehoshuagardner 21 pts

I think this is the reason we haven't seen a Westbrook deal done yet. There was no way of knowing what the max could be. I also find it interesting that Rose, an obvious candidate for the special max, just now signed his extension yesterday.

The question now is: what is the comparison between what Westbrook's max extension with us can be and what he can get in FA elsewhere?

f5alcon 273 pts

yehoshuagardner he will be a RFA if he doesnt sign, so we can match whatever offer he would get, so he is ours for the next 5 or 6 years, unless he absolutely wants to leave and signs a shorter deal so he can be an UFA ala lebron, but i do not see that happening. he still would only be in his mid 20s and would have plenty of time to go to LA or wherever after a max contract. If we are title contenders every year he might not even want to leave.

yehoshuagardner 21 pts

f5alcon He'll be a RFA for one year, but after that won't he be unrestricted. He could play for OKC for 2 more years and then go somewhere else. I know he'd probably be giving up a good bit of money, but that's why I asked the question. What's the difference between what he could make here vs. somewhere else... all of that in two years.

JimboSlice 198 pts

yehoshuagardnerf5alcon no he'd be a RFA the next time free agency hits for him (which would be next year). This means we can match whatever offer he gets from someone else (which we will). If we match it, he has to take our offer. So unless he signs a short deal next summer, we don't have to worry about him going anywhere anytime soon. The only way he'd only be in OKC two years is if next summer he signed a one year contract, which is completely unrealistic.

f5alcon 273 pts

yehoshuagardner he won't do that, the only player who has done that is ben gordon and he openly hated chicago. If a player does that and gets hurt they would be screwed. It would be about a 9 million dollar(~20%) difference if he did that.

JimboSlice He is saying that if westbrook plays for the QO next year so he can be an UFA the year after.

f5alcon 273 pts

yehoshuagardner westbrook was probably holding out for the 30% but now that durant has it, westbrook is probably going to agree to the extension soon

Grolgar 142 pts

the commenting system is awesome on my laptop, but awful on my iPhone.

Royce Young 72 pts moderator

Grolgar For shame. Hopefully that will improve soon.

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

Maybe I'm jumping the gun here, but after last niht's game i'm about ready to say we should promote cole and reggie. Imagine what we could get back for a package of Maynor, Nazr, and Nate's expiring deal.. That's a pretty good package. We still have the pick and trade exception from the Hayward deal too. I'm excited to see what Presti does. 1st rounder? Lottery?

Dominator 8 pts

SteveThunderfan Probably jumping the gun a little yes... I like the idea... but... Maynor still remains the only "true point guard" on the roster, and however good Reggie is, I believe his best role is more of a ball handling shooting guard (like Harden).

Nazr also remains valuable, what would happen if Perkins went down for a few weeks or more (very possible with his injury record). Having Nazr on the roster gives us a lot of insurance.

I do agree that Cole and Reggie should both be getting more minutes though:

When everyone is fit, I'd like to see Cole become the second most used center after Perk.Harden should start, with Reggie and Thabo backing him up (split the minutes according to match up/need).

Sefolosha/Hayward can split the minutes at SF when KD is not on the floor.

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

Dominator I agree with keeping nazr for "Perk insurance," but I feel like this is probably the best time to trade maynor. I was less impressed with him at the end of last year than I had been in the past, and if RJ took the backup PG spot it would create all sorts of juicy mismatches for him just based on his size, alone. i realize the guys guarding him were scrubs, but Reggie looked like a physical specimen out there, comparatively, at least. A 2nd string of RJ, DAE, Thabo, Nick, and Cole looks pretty darn good physically, and from a basketball standpoint, IMO. But you're right, we probably should wait for more proof outta RJ, I just hate to let maynor walk when his stock's so high around the leaue right now.

Dominator 8 pts

SteveThunderfan I'd pretty much agree with that.. I just kind of like that we have two different type of PGs. Russ with his aggressive style and Eric with his more controlled pass first style. Maybe Reggie can develop into an effective PG but I'd prefer to see him as a shooting guard.

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

It deos make alot of sense. Cook is far more expendable than Manor, and Maynor/RJ IS a better backcourt than RJ/Cook. I just hope nobody decides Maynor should be a starter and pays him as such. I saw where someone suggested that Brooks was keeping Thabo as a starter to keep his value up; How about if Brooks played Maynor less and RJ mor this season to knock Maynor's value own so we could keep him long term? (When exactly does Maynor become RFA?)

kfmsooner 29 pts

Yes...I think that's jumping the gun. When the trade deadline hits, that's when we might (might) thnk about a deal, depending on how we are playing, health, and what skill we might need to get out of the West.

f5alcon 273 pts

SteveThunderfan maynor is still better than jackson as of right now, the thing is maynor will probably get offers at starting pg money when he is a restricted FA and at that point we probably will not match. With our team built around the spurs model. We are always going to be cycling role players with cheaper rookie deals or cheap vets like collison.

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

Maybe if RJ cuts into his minutes enough this year his value will go down and we can keep both? Wishful thinking, but man is it nice to have the security at every position to debate that our backup's a starter and his backup could replace him.. Go Presti!

f5alcon 273 pts

SteveThunderfan maybe, but i think maynor would want to start if he had the chance. Yeah it does make sense to trade him before he leaves, but that doesnt have to happen until next season, so no rush on it, plenty of time to develop jackson.

f5alcon 273 pts

SteveThunderfan after the 2012/2013 season.

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

But since everyone acknowledges that maynor will get a starter offer and leave, doesn't it make ever more since to trade him now? We're gonna lose him either way, it's a mini-CP3 situation (very mini, but still) and since maynor becomes a RFA at the end of this deal, any team that really wants him would want his cheap year before they have to match offers. His rookie years are SO valuable because they're cheap, but after this he's just a decent player with a decent contract (that we can't even afford).

JimboSlice 198 pts

SteveThunderfan it would, if his contract was up next summer. but he doesn't become an RFA til the summer AFTER next. for that reason, there's no rush at all. If someone offers us something ridiculous for him this year, sure take it. But if not, we have all the way til the 2013 trade deadline to make a decision.

SteveThunderfan 7 pts

JimboSlice Ok well in a year everyone meet back here for trade Maynor talks haha. Until then, START THE BEARD!!!

kfmsooner 29 pts

I was impressed with the Thunder last night. Loved to see Cole show improvement, loved to see the Beard confidently bombing from distance, loved KD in the post. Just a few more days and we are live with real games. I used to be excited for Christmas morning...now it's Christmas night that has me Jonesing...

TaoMaas 58 pts

"Sebastian Pruiti of Grantland on James Harden and the pick-and-roll: 'When using ball screens, Harden posted a PPP of 0.963. That put him in the top 8 percent of all players, and it’s this success that has led many observers to believe that Harden is the Thunder’s best choice when it comes to initiating offense.'"

What I think Pruiti and other measurebators miss is that much of Harden's stats are achieved with the 2nd team. If you'd watch the games, you'd know this.

f5alcon 273 pts

TaoMaas well he is still really efficient, but it does take away from best choice for initiating the offense.

kfmsooner 29 pts

Yes, many of his stats are against the 2nd unit. But he is also usually the only real threat on the floor at that time and the defense has to focus on him. It goes both ways. He is still very good and efficient when playing with the starters, especially late in the year last season. The last game against Dallas when he was creating shots off the pick n roll with Russ and KD on the floor was unstoppable, and hopefully we see that 8+ times a game this year.

TaoMaas 58 pts

kfmsooner I believe that Harden is like Odom in that, many times, he is a starter playing against back-ups. There's nothing wrong with that, btw, and it has certainly played to the Thunder's advantage...but I think it's something we need to keep in mind when evaluating him. But really..."The Beard" needs no such qualifiers. I think he's already proven that he's a valuable contributor, whether it's coming off the bench or playing with the first team. He's a "keeper".