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SammyThunderer Ive always wanted Thornton to turbocharge our second unit

Also found other fun to watch vids of our other two invitees, but all they do is dunk. Both an upgrade from Mullens, but that's not exactly where we're looking to upgrade anyway.

KD35Russ0 KD + Rambis glasses = hardcore hipster

Jax Raging Bile DuctKD35Russ0

I made a post about this in the other thread but the thread was close to death and nobody noticed. He said his vision was 50/30, which means that from the 3 point line (23.75 feet) he's have the same visual acuity of somebody with 20/20 vision looking at a basket 39.6 feet away. If his vision has been slowly moving from normal to 50/30 over the last year or two it might explain why his shooting percentages haven't increased at quite the rate people were expecting, especially from the 3. If he gets contacts or glasses that move him back to 20/20 vision you might see a serious improvement in his shooting, especially from farther out.

Also I really really want to see him in some goggles, that would be awesome.

osanowhoaKD35Russ0 I've never seen anyone do the math to discover distance based on a vision ratio before. They say you learn something new everyday, and today, this is that thing for me.

This is also why I can't ever quit this blog. Too many smart people posting too much good info like this.

osanowhoaJax Raging Bile DuctKD35Russ0 So, what I'm taking from this is that Durant should now be able to shoot around .350 from halfcourt...

Jax Raging Bile DuctKD35Russ0 Honestly I can't say I'm certain that the math works that way, but it seems like it should. The top number is for the smallest font size (more or less) you can see at a distance of the bottom number.

Jax Raging Bile Duct KD35Russ0
We all know how much KD's backpack was a hit. Can you imagine how much Nike could profit on some KD Goggles!
I'd buy a pair and where them everywhere!

KD35Russ0 Oh my god, please let KD need to get some goggles like Amare. This would so help me justify grade school sports......

Assuming slightly improved production and scoring next year but nothing hugely dramatic.

SammyThunderer Ok, let's say he is a 12 and 10 player, near top of the league in blocks. Let's say his jumper is a little more consistent, but he still has stone hands and no handle. Let's say he is our leading rebounder, but that his defensive awareness is still primarily based on trying to block every shot. On the Thunder, that makes him probably our second best defender, and 5th/6th best scorer. For what he would be bringing to the table, he should be worth 7-8 million per year.

However, I think GMs looking around would see those numbers, at that age, and think he is a young Ben Wallace with a jumpshot. At that point, someone will offer 12 million a year assuming he patrols the paint like Dwight and shuts down whomever he is guarding. That wouldn't actually be the case, but it's what pure numbers and age might presume.

Keith00 He'd be our 4th best scorer, no? And likely one of our most efficient?

SammyThunderer I wouldn't see it that way. If he can't do anything but dunk or take slow shots on spot-ups, his efficiency would be rather overrated. Obviously KD-Russ-Harden are our top 3 (in whatever order), but Maynor, Collison, and even Jackson could easily be better scorers than Ibaka. Ibaka as a scorer is held back by his inability to create a shot at all. Collison right now is a better scorer, simply with fewer opportunities.

While versatility in passing, ballhandling, and range aren't generally used as a direct part of being a scorer, they affect how useful your scoring is. Ibaka posses almost no secondary skills to make scoring easier, which is why what scoring he does isn't particularly valuable. Anyone could score like he scores for the most part (apparently not including Perkins - another high FG% player).

Keith00 Being super athletic and being able to dunk on people and catch alley-oops has a lot of value.

SammyThunderer Except he's not very good at that. He doesn't read the play well for the alley oop (unless he's already wide open), and has a lot of trouble catching the ball and making a play right away. Being super athletic has made him one of the best shotblockers in the league, but he's still more athlete than baller right now.

Keith00 58%TS is decent. He obviously doesn't have a ton of polish and BBIQ, but I think it's a mistake to see that at the expense of the stuff he does do well. I expect both his usage and TS% to go up as he gains experience.

SammyThunderer Think about LaMarcus Aldridge. He is not as athletic as Ibaka, but he is an alley-oop terror. He sees plays develop, uses his body to create space, and has great body control in the air. Ibaka is not that kind of player yet (if ever). Ibaka can barely be a pick and roll threat most of the time because he can't collect the ball and go up in the same motion. A lot of that can be learned, sure, but it's not guaranteed. If we don't project significant development, Ibaka is a very limited player.

Keith00 Well, obviously, LA is a 26USG% stud, I don't think anyone would say Ibaka is one his level.

SammyThunderer I'm not trying to say he doesn't do things well. He does. He is probably the best pure shotblocker in the league. But the original question was what is his worth without significant improvement. Without significant improvement he is an offensive black hole with poor hands and little awareness. Defensively he is a highlight reel that is prone to overaggressiveness. Think of the difference between Dwight Howard (incredible fundamentals, can defend every situation) to Javele McGee (athletic shotblocker but not actually a great defender). Ibaka is in between still. He has loads and loads of potential, but I was simply valuing him on what he actually does.

Keith00 I think presumption of some growth would be incorporated into any future valuation since you're paying him for the next 5 years, not past performance.

SammyThunderer True, but I even mentioned growth. I expect him to rebound better, block better, and be more reliable with his shot. How much progress is reasonable? Most players don't have huge developmental increases. They are much more often very minimal from year to year. Are there many players who went from offensive afterthoughts to important contributors, skill-wise? Normally players that suddenly bust out had already shown the skill, just didn't have the opportunity.

I think Ibaka's developmental arc is going to look more like Ben Wallace or Samuel Dalembert (never became offensive threats) than Dwight Howard (from super raw teen to dominant at both ends). There's nothing wrong with that. I would absolutely love for him to be like Ben Wallace but with some use as a pick and pop shooter. Ben Wallace might be my favorite basketball player ever.

Keith00 Wallace was always much meaner and tougher and smarter on D than I think Ibaka will ever be. I think the ideal projection is that he becomes a better offensive Tyson Chandler.

Keith00SammyThunderer I hate to bud in for my two cents (worth about $0.00000001), but I'm pretty sure the big development leaps are almost always from players who have the ball in their hands. Ibaka, of course, does not. I just say that because that makes it even more rare if he does make a big leap developmentally.

Jax Raging Bile DuctSammyThunderer Tyson Chandler with a little more range is doable, and I would be more than happy with it. As for developmental curve, big men are always said to take longer, and that could be a big reason. I don't think it is the only thing, since big men often have very different responsibilities. But, it probably only adds to my expectation that his growth will be very incremental. Ibaka shouldn't see the ball much in that lineup, and that's not going to change while we retain our perimeter stars.

Keith00Jax Raging Bile DuctSammyThunderer Big men take longer, and a player with Ibaka's history probably even moreso. I think if you give Ibaka big dollars you're gambling that he either makes major strides developing offensive skills or he's going to become a plus man defender in the post (which he is not, yet). I think in the open market there will be GM's around who will take that gamble at a high price tag, especially since there's still the possibility he will achieve both of those things.

Ultimately, I think the bigger picture decision is if the team as-is can generate enough offense to win a title with the Ibaka-Perkins frontcourt... if it can't, then this conversation is a moot point.

Jax Raging Bile DuctKeith00SammyThunderer Just getting him comfortable with the ball a few more possesions maybe even for a few more seconds at a time would be progress

SammyThunderer If KP's 7 mil, I'd give Serge the nod in a 4/40ish deal plus or minus a couple mil

JimboSliceSammyThunderer What ever DeAndre Jordan gets, Ibaka will get a little less than that because he is not a true center. 4/42 for Jordan?

5/45 for Ibaka...

kfmsoonerSammyThunderer yes please and thank you. IF that would happen.

SammyThunderer I think Ibaka could see 12m a year. I think that's realistic. I think it could be more if he were considered a center.

Jax Raging Bile DuctSammyThunderer 12mm we can afford without going over the tax line.

SammyThunderer It's a new CBA and a new market but can the Thunder justify giving Ibaka more than what Noah or Horford received from their teams?

justin_mia Oh hell no. Obviously not.

justin_mia Sac needed to add salary in a big way. They overpaid, but by less than they would have going after free agents in the same price range.

justin_mia Worlds better than 4/26 for Glen Davis. Yikes.

SammyThunderer Holy Moly. What will Jeff Green get?!

osanowhoa I totally agree with you about the Avon-Stringer thing being forced. I always thought the best Wire comparison for Westbrook was D'angelo. Wildly enthusiastic. good at what he does, but sometimes doesn't make the best decisions. Also i always picture Harden as Bunk

osanowhoa Just to continue the police theme:

Harden = Kima. Young up and comer that just wants to do his job and doesn't get involved in the politics

Perk - Barlow. Veteran that gets pissed off too easily goes off on cussing tirades

Serge - Carver. Best looking on the team

BJ Mullens - Prez. Terrible at what he does and will end up teaching middle school grade in 3 years

Collison - Freeman. Loyal old guy willing to do the dirty work

okcjim Except himself. You have to realize it wasn't Chandler that shut down Westbrook, it was the way he was unable to pass up open mid-range shots (which he bricked). But if he's been working as hard as it seems in the offseason, hopefully he'll either be able to make those shots or find the open shooter.