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Wednesday Bolts – 9.28.11

On Grantland, Bill Simmons and Jonathan Abrams look at who each team could use with an amnesty clause. Here’s OKC: Abrams: No one. If they need to save money, they could free themselves of Thabo Sefolasha’s contract ($11.6 million through 2014) and hand the two-guard spot completely over to James Harden. Simmons: Sam Presti is a better man than me. I’d be holding press conferences and saying things like, “Really? Otis Smith overpays Rashard Lewis by $50 million, then makes it worse by trading him for Arenas … and we’re throwing him a freaking life jacket? Really? REALLY?????? You know who I’m using my amnesty on? ROYAL IVEY! HE MAKES 10 F*CKING DOLLARS AN HOUR! YOU GUYS SUCK! F*CK YOU!!!!!!!!!!”

Ken Berger of CBSSports.com: “What is there to think about? That is the $1.9 billion question. At last check, that’s how far apart the two sides appeared to be on the economics as they prepared to tread on the hallowed ground of system issues — the hard salary cap vs. the existing system with a plethora of exceptions and a luxury tax. Sources have told CBSSports.com that both sides have signaled a willingness to negotiate system issues, with one person connected to the talks saying that a deal is “there for the taking.” Asked whether Tuesday’s session was dedicated to the economic split or the system, Fisher and Stern said they discussed both.”

And owners have potentially dropped the insistence on a hard cap system. Whoa boy.

Reasons why the lockout totally sucks, with a Kevin Durant name drop.

Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com says Nick Collison should be in NBA Rank’s top 100: “The superb defender does all the little things that go unnoticed (cliché alert!). But here’s why that statement isn’t just sportswriter fluff: The big man perennially ranks among the league’s best in adjusted plus-minus. Top players over the last two seasons in that category? LeBron, Durant, Nash, Chris Paul, Dirk and & Nick Collision. He’s doing something very right.”

Is today’s NBA like “Moneyball”?

Chris Sheridan on the current state of negotiations: “One of the concepts the players have resented most during these negotiations is that the sides are assuming 4 percent annual growth per season, but the players would not get any of those additional revenues because the owners were asking them to accept an offer that flatlined player salaries at $2 billion over the first seven seasons of the proposed 10-year deal.”

KD on his tattoos: “It was just like so what? I was wondering why people were so worried about me getting a tattoo. It doesn’t change the type of person I am. It doesn’t change how I look at things. It’s just ink. And I like ink. It’s something I always wanted to get. I was a little nervous of getting them because of needles. But I was going to get them sooner or later … I’m going to try to stay away from my arms. Once I have kids and a family, that’s when I’ll kind of get my arms done maybe. But I was just a big fan of tattoos always growing up, and I wanted something cool that symbolizes what I’ve been through in my life and everything on my chest and my back is like a collage. Like it or not, it’s staying.”

Also: KD said he’s looking at potentially organizing a charity game in OKC.

Tickets are on sale for Goodman-Drew II.

TBJ on the worst player in NBA 2K12: “That honor goes to the Bulls’ Brian Scalabrine and the Thunder’s Byron Mullens, both of whom have overall ratings of 40 in this year’s iteration of the game. For reference, a 40 means that a player can barely walk two steps without turning the ball over, rolling an ankle and losing several hundred thousand dollars in a bad investing deal.”

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@Crow

Crow, you're right. We could just sign one to an extension during the year, and the other during the offseason.

In any case, whatever problem arises, I have supreme confidence that Presti will know what to do about it.

So I really never should have been worried to begin with.

A possible workaround would be to sign only one of them to an early extension and the other one waits til the 4th off-season or one gets signed in the 4th and the other in the 5th.

The owners say a lot of things now to take things from the players and use them as bargaining chips that when it comes to final decision time they might alter for their interests. A lot of owners like the Bird exception to keep players and keep fans accustomed to them happy and buying tickets and stuff.

Man, that amnesty clause would really suck for us, since we won't really be able to take advantage of it.

Something else I saw recently is the owners are asking for a change in the Bird rule. Teams will only be able to re-sign ONE of their own players that year if they are over the cap. This would SUCK for us next year (if we're over the cap), because that means we could only re-sign one of James Harden or Serge Ibaka. Or 1 or both would have to take substantially less money than what they thought they'd be getting.

I think we need to be very worried about this, if it is indeed part of the new CBA.

I posted some stuff about top lineup management by playoff teams elsewhere. Here is the part about the Thunder. I said some of this during and after the playoffs but probably not with all this digging for detail. If you are interested, more with respect to the future than the past.

Comparing playoffs to regular season the Thunder’s biggest minute lineup (the starting lineup) dropped the most in performance amongst contenders on raw +/- and Adjusted +/-.

In the first 2 rounds it went -8 total but against Dallas it went -27 in about 57 minutes. Stop using a horrendously performing starting lineup in a series? Not the Thunder. Can't sustain that level of loss from a lineup and win it all, this season or in the future. The rest of the Thunder lineups combined to go +7 against Dallas. But the insiders know best right? Does not seem like it to me on that choice.

They did find Westbrook- Harden- Durant- Collison- Perkins in the playoffs after only giving it 22 minutes trial in the regular season. it had an extremely strong playoff run +30 per 100 possessions on raw +/ and +13 on Adjusted +/-. 62 minutes of playoff use overall though that was still less than 4 minutes per game (up from 1.3 minutes per game in the regular season after Perkins became available).

This lineup was actually +12 against Dallas in 21 minutes. It might be hard to know which lineups to "chase" and which to let go at times, but I would have let go of a lot of the starting lineup and chased this alternative a lot more rigorously. It was the only one of the 5 most used lineups against the Mavs that wasn't horrendous. There were other top 10 in minute lineups that were great though... but, what do you know, they all had Collison. All lineups used over 10 minutes against Dallas that had Perkins without Collison were horrendous. That trend seems pretty clear cut. http://basketballvalue.com/teamvsteam.php?team1=OK...

In a short cut series you wonder when the trend developed and if they had enough information and time to used the lineup more. In this case it appears they used the Collison-Perkins combo about 18 minutes in the first 3 games, to great per minute success (their biggest one)... and then used it just 2 minutes in the final 2 games. I'd score a miss for that judgment or oversight.

Will they use Westbrook- Harden- Durant- Collison- Perkins more next season? Something to watch. I know I would use it more. Along with other Collison lineups in critical situations, especially at the end of games, though perhaps with Ibaka or even in a small lineup instead of with Perkins, unless he is vital for a match-up and playing well.

@ JelloPuddinPup
isn't BJ just a taller, more athletic, less tatted, paler, kevin durant?

I'm going to get NBA2K12, play as Byron and win the Championship with him, just to prove to myself that he is worth something...or maybe I'll just play as KD. I dunno.

@ anonymous
You mean too low right? I feel like he should get bonus points for terrible facial hair.

I'm assuming there is no facial hair rating on nba2k11, otherwise 40 would be way too high for Byron

@ gr8ball83
haha maybe that's what is picking him up, his potential rating. but in terms of actual ratings on skill by skill, everything else has got to be in like the 10-15 range lol

@ Jimbo Slice

But he's 7 feet tall and athletic! He has to be good at basketball eventually! Stupid BJ. Also, Bill Simmons plagiarized my thoughts.

To be honest, that rating of 40 is either a) wayyy to high for Mullens or b) a complete injustice to Scalabrine. Scalabrine at least can shoot the ball relatively well, so his shot medium and 3 pt ratings alone should make him more valuable than any rating Mullens has. He literally has no redeeming factor about him currently.