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Monday Bolts – 6.20.11

Susan Bible of HoopsWorld on the Thunder’s draft strategy: “Presti may elect to trade or package the pick, but for purposes of this article we’ll assume a straight draft pick. Since Oklahoma City divulges little in the way of who it’s working out or eyeing, we’ll first establish apparent needs of the team. The Thunder lacks a reliable backup to Durant; a combo akin to what Jeff Green provided would be ideal. Some might say another valid need is a low-post scorer to complement Perkins. And others may point to a need for a shooting guard to fill a vacancy off the bench once Harden is moved, surely next season, to a starting role.”

How does Jimmer look at the next level? Dean Oliver of ESPN.com: “Superficially, Fredette’s scoring volume has inflated his value to the point where he may be a lottery pick. His ceiling is lower than others because of his age, and his ability to develop into a passer is in question. When evaluating the entire package, Fredette projects better to the NBA as a late first-round or early second-round pick, given his one specialty skill. That way, he can begin to carve out a career as a designated shooter, with a chance to improve his overall game.”

Harrison Barnes challenged Kevin Durant. Bad decision, Harrison.

Tristan Thompson dunked the ball 100 straight times in a workout for Charlotte. Good job?

NBA players fear fan reaction to a lockout: “The idea of the lockout and losing fans is probably the scariest thing of all,” Luke Walton said. “Even moreso than missing games or losing out on your salary for however long you lose those games, it’s losing the fan support because it’s at an all-time high right now.”

Darnell Mayberry writes that OKC is in position to find a sleeper: “Standing pat and selecting someone, though, might be the smartest option of all. Ignoring for a moment the likelihood of a higher-ranked player slipping and falling to 24, there always seems to be overlooked or under-scouted prospects available in the latter stages of the first round who prove worthy of a selection. The Thunder franchise landed that exact guy in 2008 when it selected Serge Ibaka 24th overall.”

John Rohde’s mock draft has OKC taking Nikola Mirotic.

Ben Golliver of CBSSports.com looks for sleepers: “You don’t need a crystal ball to see Kyle Singler’s future. He will be a solid rotation player on a perennial playoff contender, stepping in off the bench to play either forward position. He will make smart plays, go hard on both ends of the court, constantly have television announcers say he’s playing over his head, and will knock down the open shot. One of the best competitors in this draft, Singler gets overlooked this year for two obvious reasons: he stayed at Duke for longer than he probably should have and isn’t an elite athlete. Earlier in his career, Singler had lottery buzz; he now expects to go in the mid-to-late first round and, if things don’t break right, he could even find himself landing in the early second. There are certain to be multiple flameouts selected before him. In a draft with a shallow star pool, why not take a solid, low-risk player who is wholly devoted to playing the game the right way?”

Daequan Cook on Oklahoma City: “Like I’ve always said, I love it here. Who wouldn’t?”

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The ONLY thing I like about Honeycutt is his athleticism. And I feel like he's a basketball athlete as well as an athlete, not just a guy who is good at combine measurements.

I'm just not excited about any prospect at 24.

I don't get the high Hollinger rank for Honeycutt. If the team thought he could play some SG too in addition to SF I'd be somewhat more understanding of interest.

Does a GM who took faceup shooting PFs in Green and White then traded both away take Harper? It may be too simple to lean towards no. Harper might fit the backup forward able to shoot role. He is a way better shooter than Green and more mobile than White.

If they mainly want a dirty work PF, they already have Lat and Reid waiting. If they want a blend of shooting and dirty work Singler might get the spot. It partly comes down to if they are planing on carrying 13, 14 or 15 and how they rearrange the perimeter group. If they keep Ivey, Robinson and Cook or simple use 3 spots for that backup however they fill it, then it may be more important for the backup forward to be versatile.

Miami probably needs at least 2 productive additions to win a title. The Thunder probably need at least 1-2 to go the rest of the way.

Goudelock got a ton of workouts. Not clearcut what that means if anything. He might be highly considered as a possible 2nd round pick because he shot a ton of 3s in college and might be able to do that some in the pros in a backup role or he could have just been used a lot as a workout opponent than other guards couldn't say no about facing or somewhere in between.

Lat sounds much more like a PF than a SF. I don't think Lat would be given the ball much or at all at SF and probably not much at PF either. If he makes it and if he plays it will be to defend and rebound and maybe take a putback shot.

@Daniel Plainview

I'm not so high on Honeycutt, I think it is all the tattoos (Jenni Carlson had me totally pegged -- j/k). Seriously, I'm cool on that pick because the shot isn't there yet and we need shooting. Hamilton would be a great fit - not sure if the character issue (am I thinking of the right guy) would eliminate him from consideration on this team. Harris I could live with, but I'm already feeling the frustration of being so much of a tweener. So, of course, I have tweener as my first choice. :)

- Johnson
- Butler
- Harper
- Jackson
- Jenkins
- Parsons
- Bertans

2nd round (if we acquire pick)
- Mack
- Goudelock
- Malcolm Lee
- Lighty
- Cole

Butler might be too low but he probably not going to be the best available at 24. Players like Butler and Parsons should ensure them have at least a few decent choices left though. A trade with a team which takes them later would be a possibility.

@ Caleb

Actually, my degree was in english and all I do is write, so tehrs no excuse for my typos

oops, put Vucevic in tehre as my 8th option for players Id like, por favor

Hahaha no your fine man... I understand predictive text... It was just funny because my first thought was maybe english wasn't your first language and that's just how you thought it was done

If we stay at 24, this is what Id like if theyre are there:

(I understand, most of these guys wont be there

1. Honeycutt
2. Jordan Hamilton
3. Tobias Harris
4. Justin Harper
5. Mirotic
6. JaJuan Johnson
7. Jimmy Butler

What I dont want:

1. Kyle Singler
2-5. Point Guards

@fivesheff

It is fun, but this year there isn't as much traffic. Being in the top 5 is awesome, and even last year was fun with all the rampant rumors and our eventual trade up into the lottery.

I think the CBA and low draft pick in a poor draft has me all depressed.

But don't get me wrong, I'll still watch every second of the draft this year. On my dvr of course.

@ Caleb

I know, sorry, i hate it. I try to fix it, but its jsut so maddening at time. My first instinct should be to revise before submitting

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

Yep - I'm with you on Singler. I am also undoubtedly being too optimistic about how a first year player might fit into what we currently have. Even Harden wasn't much his first year. But a solid 24th pick could get his feet wet and be a productive player by 2012-13, providing more offensive versatility than we currently have now off the bench. A 2nd team of Maynor, Thabo, Cook, Nazr, and Collison isn't frightening anyone.

I'm just hesitant about waiting so long for a player like Mirotic. Thanks for the discussion. This is a fun time of year!

@Daniel Planview

When you write the word the it always comes out teh haha... Just been noticing that lately... I'm really hoping we trade for some better taken using Nate, Mullins, maybe even Thabo, and maynor (if the rumors are even true which I doubt they are) as a possible package... I know we were already contenders but I would just like to see some of our weaknesses become stronger... I really don't even have anybody in mind... I think a major part of me wants that just to have something to he excited about until the season starts

@fivesheff

I'll give you that we could draft the most polished 4 year college player in the draft this year. I'm still saying that guy won't contribute or be better than Cook/Maynor/Thabo.

But, even if he is good enough to beat out all 3 of those guys, I still don't think that's enough to have moved on in the WCF's. A 10-15 minute per game guy isn't going to be enough of a difference to win that series. Especially not a rookie, not even a polished one.

Yes, we're in win now mode, but that means our current 7-8 man rotation, not a role player. If that role player is that good, he'd be in the 8 man rotation already. The only way we add a piece that is solid enough to have put us over the top in the WCF's this year is to replace our main rotation, and that's not going to happen at pick #24.

Mirotic could be that type of guy in 3 years. Maybe not. But in my opinion, Singler has no chance whatsoever to be that guy.

If they pick the right guy at 24 I think he "could be" in the rotation next season. There are places a guy could win minutes if he is ready and good enough and I think it is possible somebody available at 24 could be. But I agree that it is more important that they have the potential to contribute 1-2 years later than next season.

@ Keith

Id like to know that too. Since tehres no summer league, what are our rotation players doing for the Bench and D-leagueres?

"RHQ: One of my favourite parts when we do this chat every year is looking at the sleepers, or the underrated players in the draft class, versus those who you think are getting too much hype, or are overrated.

JG: I think the guy who is the number one sleeper in this draft is Nikola Mirotic. He's got no chance of being drafted in the top 20 because of his buy-out situation, but if you're ranking purely on just talent, I would say that he should be a top-10 pick. That's my opinion.

Another guy who's underrated to me is Jimmy Butler, from Marquette. He has an outside chance of going in the first round, but I think he's going to be a ten-year NBA player, a Shane Battier type guy in terms of his basketball IQ, in terms of his defense, his passing. I think he's pretty good."

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jonathan-Givon...
http://www.draftexpress.com

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

Don't want to go back and forth on the issue, but you can make a case that what we are talking about this year is different than any of those situations. Mullens and Aldrich are big men which, by all accounts, are notorious for being slow to develop. And Williams was a young draft pick who never played college ball and only just turned 22 years old.

The players we are mostly talking about are four year college players who are 22 already, have a lower upside, but have played competitively at a high college level already. They don't have to be better than Durant and Westbrook to get on the floor. Look at who we had playing in some late game situations - Maynor, Cook, and Thabo (!). The question is can they provide different/better options than them in certain situations. At the end of the year, will they provide more of an offensive threat and a balanced lineup late in the game to help make it easier for KD and Westbrook to close out difficult games? I think the answer to that is a definite maybe.

@DXL
if thats the case why not just trade for a better pick next year and then stand pat

How is Lat Williams looking these days, by the way? He's very athletic, but last I checked he was trying to be a PF. Could he handle NBA caliber SF duties? Can he hit an open jumper from Ibaka range?

We are still woefully thin in shooters. Anytime Harden or KD step out of the game we may be replicating our negative differential starters. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather start strong than not, but I definitely think we need a shooter behind KD.

@DXL

You and I are on the same page. Draft and stash.

Let's be realistic, no one the Thunder is taking at 24 is going to be in the rotation next year. Whatever needs the Thunder have are going to be filled by signing or re-signing veteran free agents. Rookies will get no run on this NBA final four team.

Therefore, it makes sense to draft the best developmental prospect regardless if he's ready or available to play. Find a player who's going to be good in a couple of years when the roster will be thinned by free agent defections or injury.

@fivesheff

It's a good thought - that a 24th pick is just what would have put us over the top to a championship, but I don't see that as realistic. I would be surprised if our 24th pick this year even sees the court for anything but blowout minutes after the all star break. We already have a 24th pick in Mullens who only sees PT in Tulsa. We have an 11th pick in Aldrich who can't see time. We have a 2 year Tulsa SF in Latavious Williams who has never even been called up.

The only way I see a 24 pick giving us meaningful minutes, especially in the WCF's, is if he is a seasoned player in a professional league.

He can rebound for a man rail-thin

Im coming back to Honeycutt.

Hollingers got Honeycutt at 13

It's very sad to come back to this blog and we still have posters touting Jeff Green as the answer off the bench for the Thunder...can we please put that topic to bed?

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

Tough to figure out whether a college player now is being penny wise or pound foolish. But given how close the Thunder were to being in a position to win the series against Dallas, I think it's more important to try to win now.

If we can get a PF who can shoot and open the floor more for Westbrook, that's a great thing. If we can add another shooter who can create his own shot on the second unit or at least be another scoring option, that is also valuable. If we can get a SF who can play quality +/- minutes and give KD a few more minutes rest per game, that would also be worthwhile. If we could get a true offensive threat from the box and run the 2nd team offense through the post, that would add variety to our attack.

In this draft, I think we can get at least one of those things at the 24-30 range and maybe even in the first half of round 2.

Yeah, that was pretty much what I figured the consensus on J.R. Smith would be. It's too bad he has all the off-court issues, because he fills the void on the second unit, at least on paper. Ah well, I'm sure Presti will work his magic again this off-season.

If you wanted or needed Singler to become a starter within a few years I wouldn't be that high on him. But that is probably not the Thunder situation (unless they lose Ibaka down the line and even then they probably would need somebody else). If you saw him as a 20 minutes per game player tops at his potential peak and more likely no more than 5-15 minutes then he might fit that role fairly well.

Hollinger has Tobias as his No 8 player. As much as I like him, I still thing hes no higher than 15

@justin
agree on everything you said there.... i'm still high on Jackson

The thing that makes Mirotic a good pick (to me) is that he's 3 years away from playing NBA ball. He's got the tools to be good, and 3 years from now he should be well seasoned.

Tobias Harris is intriguing but in the somewhat dangerous 'tweener way. He'd probably have to lose 10-15 pounds and be a SF to be "the pick". I wouldn't pick him to play more than spot small ball minutes at PF against a small ball opponent.

@ justin

I agree that Maynor will most likely be gone in a couple of years but I think there will be many more sound replacements either avialble in FA or teh draft the next two years. Either of those PG's might be D-Leaguers for life

They have to (IMO) add another forward by one means or another.

Maybe it would not have mattered but I still think it would have been better to fill the 15th roster spot with a forward for the playoffs over Vaden for another defender option on Dirk.

Harper's too slow and deliberate. It's the same problem with the other small school darling Jenkins: a lack of suddenness, speed or power.

Mirotic and Singler as rated by Hollinger's Draft Rater: Mirotic is projected as contributing as an immediate rotation player (ranked above every other Euro after Valunciunas), but Hollinger drops him a few spots because of the contract. Singler doesn't even get ranked! He's not even in the top 60 according to the model.

Mirotic is a couple orders of talent above Singler, there's no comparison. The more interesting question is whether he'll end up having a better NBA career than Vesely and Motiejunas.

If the test was Thompson just standing near the basket and dunking repetitively and immediately with one ball that he retrieved (that is how I'd do it) then the test would also say something about his balance and his hands.

Northwest Division Team Needs on NBAdraft.net www.nbadraft.net/team-needs-northwest-division-1

I'd prefer to see a backup SF/PF if possible. Collison is getting older and our only back up to Ibaka.

Crow :Harper did bench 185 19 times, tied for the most in this Combine. He seems strong enough for his weight but his weight isn’t ideal for playing the post. Given the comments he has drawn, it seems fair to say he hasn’t been tough & aggressive and isn’t by nature but maybe playing for minutes & money he might decide to try harder on that tough, especially if really pushed.

I've watched a few of his games on EPSN3, but I haven't seen Harper really bang. Kinda reminds me of Green, but with a more consistent shot.

I'd also be lukewarm on Tobias Harris.

I like Harper. If Vucevic falls to #24 I'd prefer him over Mirotic also. One of the guards (Jackson, Smith, Jenkins) I wouldn't mind either.

The only two picks I wouldn't like, really, are Singler and Mirotic, which is strange since those seem to be the two guys mocks have us taking the most.

Even if the Thunder are not trading Maynor, drafting a shooter / tweener like Jenkins or Jackson would be fine. Maynor's gone in two years and it's not like he's the best backup PG in the league. Competition is good for everyone.

should have been... on that "stuff" (or tough stuff, rather than just "tough")

Harper did bench 185 19 times, tied for the most in this Combine. He seems strong enough for his weight but his weight isn't ideal for playing the post. Given the comments he has drawn, it seems fair to say he hasn't been tough & aggressive and isn't by nature but maybe playing for minutes & money he might decide to try harder on that tough, especially if really pushed.

T Thompson dunking 100 straight times, because he was asked in a workout, is pretty impressive to me in terms of endurance and concentration and willingness to do what he was asked to the best of his ability. In a game a player might jump 50-100 times so while the test sounds a little esoteric, I think it has some value.

@Daniel Plainview

Agree. With roster spots and playing time limited, versatility is one of the keys. I don't care if the selection can play SG/SF or SF/PF. Either could be beneficial. I wouldn't mind PG/SG either (Jenkins or Jackson?) if we wouldn't have to keep a straight-up 3rd PG on the roster.

My preference would by JaJuan Johnson (don't know why I keep typing JuJuan), and try to pick up Goudelock, or Moore in the 2nd. If not Johnson, my choice would be Butler, then Harper. If we stash, would prefer Bertans over Mirotic.