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Are the Thunder better off settling for fourth?

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I kind of feel ridiculous asking this question. It’s a little bit along the same lines of tanking for ping-pong balls.

But with the Thunder closing within a game of Dallas with four games left (OKC holds the tiebreaker though because it’s a division winner) it must be asked: Do the Thunder really want the three-seed?

Most have been saying they shouldn’t. Common sense says playing the Lakers in the Western Finals is better than playing them in the second round. But that’s going way too far. Because it should be more about the first round matchup, not what comes after.

Here’s the thing about playing the Lakers: If you want to get to the NBA Finals, you’ve got to beat them at some point. What’s it really matter if it’s in the second or third round? All it means if you can get past them in the semis is that the road gets easier to the Finals. And besides that, since when are the Spurs pushovers? They’re pretty good, remember? Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com actually sees the Spurs as OKC’s kryptonite team. So let’s not get carried away thinking that San Antonio is the easiest team ever.

If the Thunder were to jump the Mavs for third, right now it would be the Hornets who OKC would face in the opening round. Most likely, Portland will claim that spot, so let’s go under the assumption that the Thunder would be exchanging the Nuggets for the Blazers as their first round opponent. So, who’d you rather take?

(Before we get too carried away with this possibility though, keep in mind all Dallas has a pretty favorable schedule to close. The Mavs have three of the four at home (Clippers, Suns, Hornets) with a road game at Houston. If they went 3-1 in those, OKC would have to go 4-0, with wins against Denver and at Los Angeles.)

After the way things looked against Denver Tuesday, I really lean towards taking on the Nuggets. Here are some reasons: 1) They don’t have anyone ideal to guard Kevin Durant. 2) Nene is a major part of their offense and Kendrick Perkins can handle him one-on-one. 3) The Thunder should be able to dominate the boards. 4) Ty Lawson will have a tough time checking Russell Westbrook an entire series. (Now of course my feeling on this could change with a loss at home Friday night…)

Portland on the other hand, sort of makes me nervous. Don’t get me wrong, I’m nervous anyway. It wouldn’t matter if the Thunder were playing a sixth grade JV team in the opening round, I’d be terrified. But the Blazers scare me just a bit more. Gerald Wallace is a pretty good defender to check KD. OKC doesn’t have an answer for LaMarcus Aldridge. Brandon Roy is kind of a mystery — what if he revs it up for a seven-game series? Beating Portland at the Rose Garden is tough. To beat the Blazers, the Thunder would likely have to out-execute them late in games.

All that said, I think I’m asking myself the wrong question here, because it’s not about who you play. It’s more about the idea of trying to position yourself in the playoffs. I understand one side of it. If the goal is to go deep into the postseason, you want to set yourself up in the best way possible to do that, right? Of course. But not at the cost of losing games.

Besides, what are you going to do? Have the team intentionally lose a game or two? How do you tell a group of guys to go out there and not try so hard tonight? How do you expect guys who have worked their butts off since August to win every time their shoes hit the hardwood to go ahead and drop one? Yeah, not realistic.

Between the Blazers and Nuggets in the first round really neither is an ideal matchup and neither is a nightmare. Neither is a team that’s going to just cause OKC a million headaches. Both will be tough to beat and I definitely see each going six, maybe seven games. But it’s not like the Thunder’s got a big problem with one. Plus, I like the idea of pushing hard at the end of the season and bettering your circumstance. Momentum is good. Confidence is wonderful. Look at what a little Big East tournament run did for Connecticut.

In the end, it honestly doesn’t matter to me. If this team wants to go to bigger things, you’ve just got to beat the teams in front of you. Whoever is put on the bracket next to your name, you play them and beat them. You can’t ask for a cakewalk to the Western Finals. You can’t expect someone to make this easier for you. If you have a chance to win, you win. If you have a chance to improve your seed, you do it. Who cares who you play and when you play them? You have to beat people to get to the goal anyway, so might as well get it over with.

Then again, if the Hornets want to go ahead and stay in sixth, I’d be more than happy to move up.

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I want NO...but a first round win over the Nugs or Blazers would be a nice confidence booster for the second round matchup against our nemisis.

I totally agree with the premise of taking the Nuggets over the Blazers. We just saw what Blake Griffin did to the Thunder D the other day, I don't think they want to face off against LaMarcus Aldridge for a series. Perk can handle Nene and Westbrook can handle Lawson, and KD should be able to score at will over the Nugg D.

ThunderUp :
All of this scared of other teams stuff is ridiculous. If the Thunder play to the best of their ability they beat anyone in the league. If they don’t the lose the series. It has very little to do with the other team they play and more to do with how well they play their opponent. The Thunder are just as talented as any other team in the league the question is will they play like it.

good post.

For a change of pace I posted a few stray stat observations at Loud City.

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2011/4/7/2097876/...

If you want to have your own thread, Loud City and RealGM are an easy way to do that, though there is also the option to talk to Royce about getting one here if that is what you want.

All of this scared of other teams stuff is ridiculous. If the Thunder play to the best of their ability they beat anyone in the league. If they don't the lose the series. It has very little to do with the other team they play and more to do with how well they play their opponent. The Thunder are just as talented as any other team in the league the question is will they play like it.

Crow :
Justin,
I saw at the realGM forum you were looking for offensive foul data. 82 games has it here http://www.82games.com/1011/1011OKC3.HTM
Looks like the Thunder have 25+% more than the western seeds ahead of them.

Thanks. I'm sure that has an effect on the high foul totals.

Justin,

I saw at the realGM forum you were looking for offensive foul data. 82 games has it here http://www.82games.com/1011/1011OKC3.HTM
Looks like the Thunder have 25+% more than the western seeds ahead of them.

@gr8ball83
He has become a bit of a hothead lately. I like his passion to balance out the coolness of KD but you gotta draw the line somewhere there.

Honestly besides staying in control more, the biggest difference I see in Rose compared to Westbrook was on at least 1 play, Rose went down the lane, appeared to get fouled, and didn't fall down, or stand there and stare at the ref, or stand there and yell at the ref, or let his guy go down to the other end for a layup. I wish Russ would cut that part out.

I can't believe Chicago looks to be finals bound again. Miami isn't beating, after tonight it's clear Boston isn't beating them.

Russ just needs to keep working on those point guard instincts. Stop overdribbling and running the shot clock down trying to probe the defense when the lane is clogged with Thabo and Perk's defenders.

Rose is ridiculously good. He is on another level compared with Westbrook. If Westbrook ever gets this good then we should all be happy.

@justin
I think I reverse jinxed him. He's scored 6 or 8 points since I posted that. I'm happy for him and hope he keeps it up.

Thomas :
Green not exactly setting the world on fire tonight.

He's having a good game.

Green not exactly setting the world on fire tonight.

andrew :
Dang, Rose just put Rondo on skates. I am beginning to become more at ease with him getting the MVP. That said, Rondo is SO overrated on defense.

I liked Taj Gibson's hook shot over Krstic. I'm glad we don't have to deal with that stuff anymore.

Dang, Rose just put Rondo on skates. I am beginning to become more at ease with him getting the MVP. That said, Rondo is SO overrated on defense.

justin :@AC
Every young player is stats driven, I don’t care what anyone says. Michael Jordan was stats driven when he was younger.
The bigger issue for me is that I think Russell is just too emotional and at times gets into bouts where he tries too hard to ‘prove himself’. Against Denver, he didn’t start going nuts until Ty Lawson burnt him pretty bad on one possession. He was fine in the 1st quarter – 5 points, 5 assists.
He’ll mature as he goes. Don’t forget that Russell has never been a high usage scoring option in his professional or collegiate life. He’s been undergoing huge changes to his game practically since he came into the league. I do not think he’s more “stats driven” than any other young NBA star player.

I agree with absolutely everything you say on this page today.

Yes, people must understand that there may be some deeper roots to Russ's hero mode. He wasnt even ranked by Rivals:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ucla/basketball/recruiting...
Legend has it that RW couldnt even dunk until his senior year and that when he was a freshman in highschool he was the least cordinated person around. Now considering D Rose has been on recruiters radar since he was a freshman in highschool as one of the nations top talents, like KD, you can see the tendency for overcompensation in RW. He is clearly on their level of superstardom and nobody believed in him in highschool. I think he will mature, like Justin said, all young palyers are stat conscious, that goes for any of us were we in the same situation, I just believe Russ suffers from it more because of teh need to prove it to teh doubters. Im glad hes on our team

I think you've got to go for the 3 seed so that on the off chance that we beat the Lakers and the Mavs beat the Spurs we'll have home-court advantage in the Western conference finals. Also so that we get the Hornets in the first round if things turn out right.

dream catcher :

justin :
The team would be far better off, to me, if Russell focused a lot more on the defensive end, toned down his USG to ~25% or less and had James Harden starting with him to alleviate the total burden of offensive responsibility that he’s had to carry. There’s no reason that Russell can’t be a Top 10 defender at his position at the very least if he could focus on it more. There’s no reason why he can’t lower his USG and become a more balanced offensive threat – if he had another guy in the lineup with him to handle the ball some and spread the floor.
Of all the things that the current starting lineup is doing for the Thunder, the worst is that it’s putting even more pressure on Westbrook to shoulder the burden offensively.

I agree 100%.

I also agree. I'd be happy if RW plays a role similar to Tony Parker ( a better version of course). Push the ball in transition, share ball handling in half court w/ the SG, and attack the rim get to the line when theres a crease. also hopefully better d also.

I also like this from henry abbott. its abt fiba but i think it applies:

Rose and Westbrook both played beautifully and with tremendous energy, but they also both starred in the U.S.'s worst moments by taking bad shots.

It's tough for them. They are stars. They rightly carry themselves as such. But with Durant shouldering the load on offense, these two guards were left to play defense, bring the ball up, and maybe score in transition once in a while. When they did those things, Team USA was excellent. But every now and again, they just had to make sure everyone remembered that they're scorers, dammit. And then there were jacked 3s with way better options, midrange Westbrook pull-ups that were doomed before they were even released, and some one-on-five forays to the rim.

Same deal with Rose and Westbrook. Rose's role on Team USA is to be athletic and efficient, and he does those things so well. That horrible, covered 3 early in the clock ... that's an attempt to prove he's even cooler than that.

And Westbrook was drafted fourth overall and even that high it was a steal. His team needs him! But isn't it enough to play great defense, to score in transition, and to pound little guys like Tony Parker and Steve Blake by getting into the lane? To be a real man must he also force the action my dribbling into misses?

I want the 3 seed because I want the Lakers sooner rather than later. You make your name against that team. Nobody cares if you take the Spurs to 6 or even 7 games. The Lakers are the leagues glamor team and taking them down or even pushing them is how you build your rep. For proof one need only look at last year.

@Sammy
I don't think there's a GM in pro sports that would do that....

@justin
Sure. This team and this front office is too good to get too pessimistic. I'm willing to give Brooks another year. But if I'd be on the moon if Presti had the balls to decline Brooks' option and hire Rick Adelman this summer.

@TempBoy Brandon
I don't think he's as much selfish as he's trying to prove something, especially in the Denver game. He was getting torched by Lawson on the defensive end, so he tried to come back and prove himself by taking Lawson on the other, over and over again.

@justin
I think you're right on. And I don't think Russ is selfish at all. I really just think he goes into "hero mode" because he thinks that's what the team needs. He gets really pumped for Maynor's sucess and everyone else's. He just wants to win, and I think he sometimes thinks he needs to take it into his own hands to make it happen.

@Sammy

I'm willing to give Scott Brooks the benefit of the doubt for now on these things. It doesn't seem possible that a professional coaching staff in the NBA can't have an appreciation for shot selection, floor spacing, etc. The team looks a lot different than it did at the beginning of the year, and I'm hoping that Brooks hasn't changed the lineup yet because it's too late to build up the continuity he likes. I hope.

If we go into next season and see more of the same things, then I'm afraid most of what you're saying would be on the money. That Brooks has more appreciation for 'making plays' than finding the right shots, no concern for floor spacing, etc. I still remember his quote about the team not needing a big man rebounder because 'everyone can rebound'. Then you consider the use of Jeff Green and how many three pointers he took despite being mediocre at them. It just wouldn't surprise me if Brooks felt that Thabo can make those shots when he's open and he's an adequate floor spacer.

justin :
The team would be far better off, to me, if Russell focused a lot more on the defensive end, toned down his USG to ~25% or less and had James Harden starting with him to alleviate the total burden of offensive responsibility that he’s had to carry. There’s no reason that Russell can’t be a Top 10 defender at his position at the very least if he could focus on it more. There’s no reason why he can’t lower his USG and become a more balanced offensive threat – if he had another guy in the lineup with him to handle the ball some and spread the floor.
Of all the things that the current starting lineup is doing for the Thunder, the worst is that it’s putting even more pressure on Westbrook to shoulder the burden offensively.

I agree 100%.

as i see it, i'd rather take my chance with the 4th seed playing the nuggets then the lakers than getting the 3rd and possibly playing portland then the spurs.

@AC
It's been discussed a ton around here recently due to Russ' recent spate of bad play. The concerns boil down to three things for me:

1) Russ is being put in a position to fail with the starting lineups. It's absurd that every time Russ or KD drives, he's met by triple teams and we can't make the defense pay because Thabo is so useless on offense. A kickout to a wide open Thabo results in either a brick or a reset of the offense with a shorter clock.

2) I'm worried that Brooks cares more for players being aggressive and 'making plays' over shot selection and making the correct pass. This feeds right into Westbrook's tendency to want to take over games single handedly, especially when the offense has stalled for a couple possessions. Russ needs to be reined in but I'm not confident that Brooks sees it or has the will to course-correct. Time will tell.

3) The previous two points feed into this one: Russ (and KD) need to do a better job incorporating Harden into the game when all three take the floor together. I read something a month or so ago that insinuated that Harden always practices with the second unit because Brooks wants to teach him to be the primary offensive weapon off the bench. My mouth dropped a little, but it makes sense when you watch them play. Russ and KD don't maximize Harden's skills when he's on the court, and don't give him nearly the same number of touches Jeff Green was trusted with. Instead, we have something more similar to Miami's offense when our big 2 are on the court, which results in way too many possessions during which we do little more than pass the ball between Russ and KD along the perimeter, each trying to survey the D and create something out of nothing. When you see plays like those, you can almost forgive Westbrook for his ill-advised drives praying for contact. Harden is useful as a secondary ball handler, but we almost never use him as such when he's sharing the floor with Russ and KD.

Blake from last night,

""Not really. The Thunder is these people's team. You're not going to cheer for me just because I'm from Oklahoma. I didn't really expect (to be cheered). I'm sure there's a lot of Oklahoma State fans in the audience"

He understands more than Mike Sherman does about the NBA and its fans.

OK that's my .10 cents. :)

The team would be far better off, to me, if Russell focused a lot more on the defensive end, toned down his USG to ~25% or less and had James Harden starting with him to alleviate the total burden of offensive responsibility that he's had to carry. There's no reason that Russell can't be a Top 10 defender at his position at the very least if he could focus on it more. There's no reason why he can't lower his USG and become a more balanced offensive threat - if he had another guy in the lineup with him to handle the ball some and spread the floor.

Of all the things that the current starting lineup is doing for the Thunder, the worst is that it's putting even more pressure on Westbrook to shoulder the burden offensively.

I think it's infinitely more important for the coaching staff to decide on what they want Russell to be long term. Does Brooks envision him as a high usage scorer for the long haul? Is it wise to put such a huge burden (scoring and play making) on such an inexperienced / raw player? This is the key difference between Westbrook and Derrick Rose, to me. Rose has been a high usage scorer all his professional and collegiate life and has a lot of experience balancing those responsibilities at a high level. Westbrook isn't close to being at the point where I'd doubt he'll get there, but I don't think this trial by fire approach by the coaching staff is the best way to lead him in the right direction.

Russell deserves the flak he gets for his decision making, but sometimes it genuinely seems to me like he's unsure of what hat to wear.

@AC

Every young player is stats driven, I don't care what anyone says. Michael Jordan was stats driven when he was younger.

The bigger issue for me is that I think Russell is just too emotional and at times gets into bouts where he tries too hard to 'prove himself'. Against Denver, he didn't start going nuts until Ty Lawson burnt him pretty bad on one possession. He was fine in the 1st quarter - 5 points, 5 assists.

He'll mature as he goes. Don't forget that Russell has never been a high usage scoring option in his professional or collegiate life. He's been undergoing huge changes to his game practically since he came into the league. I do not think he's more "stats driven" than any other young NBA star player.

@AC
it is the bill russell vs wilt chamberlain debate, except they are on the same team. russ is like that, but maybe not in the playoffs.

Just when I thought we were an NBA town, the Daily Oklahoman reminds us how much this is still a college town, taking great pains to defend Blake and accentuate his "glory" at Durant's expense. I love AD, Blake, Sammy B, and KD, but only one of the four lives in OKC, loves it, and has devoted himself to putting it on the map. Maybe we should be paying homage to that guy.

Been a while since I last posted.

Thoughts on this quote from Hollinger?

"Don’t get me wrong — Westbrook is a fantastic player and a star by any measure, but there’s also some weird, weird mojo here, and I have to wonder if this year’s improvement came at the expense of the bigger picture."

Mayberry and sometimes Royce have been hinting Russ is selfish, stats driven, etc. for a while now. I wonder if there's anything we aren't being told about behind the scenes. Is there any chance Russ won't correct this? Is it a problem with coaching or with his attitude? Can Durant step up and call for his shot?

@walker

So are you trying to tell me that Denver is better without Anderson and Afflalo??? Having ur full lineup means everyone is back in their comfortable roles... I'm not sure how much worse Denver is without those 2... But I will tell you they are worse without them

I'd like to revise my earlier prediction on the probability of Denver tanking against us this Friday to 80%.

jzwink :
Not really on subject, but I know myself and others were wondering in previous threads about when we might get a banner for our NW Division Championship. Here is the resonse I got:
### forwarded your message to me. I wanted to let you know that we are in the process of developing the appropriate recognition of the team’s achievement in winning the division title. We appreciate your interest and support!
Thanks
Dan
Dan Mahoney
Vice President
Corporate Communications &
Community Relations

That tells me we aren't getting a banner and I'm ok with that. Banners should only be rewarded for Conference Championships and Finals Championships, that's it!

Not really on subject, but I know myself and others were wondering in previous threads about when we might get a banner for our NW Division Championship. Here is the resonse I got:

### forwarded your message to me. I wanted to let you know that we are in the process of developing the appropriate recognition of the team's achievement in winning the division title. We appreciate your interest and support!

Thanks
Dan
Dan Mahoney
Vice President
Corporate Communications &
Community Relations

@TempBoy Brandon
lol, id pay him more than a dollar if he would actually answer.

I just wrote in to Darnell's mailbag asking him which article he thought was worse, the Carlson cursing one or the Sherman booing one. I told him I'd pay him $1 if he publishes it. I doubt he will, but I'd gladly hand over the buck to read his answer. :)

@Dream Catcher
Ya later after i posted it i thought that it might be a mind game like Phil Jackson does. And really though i would rather win as many games as possible because we could get huge momentum like uconn.

@f5alcon
If Denver wants to tank the game I'm more than happy to let them :)

@hasult
What's your point? You'd rather play Denver than New Orleans or Portland because they'd rather play Dallas? The debate is about avoiding Lakers in the second round. Personally, I'd rather play N.O. or Portland.

@ChilamBilam12
Nate was pretty forgettable in Boston, and got buried on the bench pretty quick. He had a couple big nights, but overall did almost nothing for the team. I mean, he can't defend anybody and he's an inefficient scorer. His scoring numbers were only ever decent because he was throwing up every shot he could get his hands on when on the court.

@dream catcher

I don't think so, what he said about Dallas is true.

I'd be disappointed if we didn't get in a serious game against the Lakers, but they might not have anything to play for either by then.

f5alcon :@hasult

does that mean denver is going to throw the game tomorrow so we have a better chance to catch dallas?

Karl might be playing mind games with us.