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Why Harden was THE pick

It’s great to see James Harden exploding onto the national scene and coming out from under the shadow of the bigger names playing ball in OKC. First it was Durant making a huge otherworldly jump in production in his second season, then Westbrook last season answered most questions about whether he was a “real” point guard. We are seeing great things from Serge Ibaka, but it’s big game James that is really putting it all together now.

Since Jeff Green was traded the minutes have opened up for James and he has responded. So far  for the month of March (7 games) James is rolling with 31 mpg,  51.2% FG,  35.3 % 3fg, 93.8% FT, 3 rebs, 3 assists, almost 2 steals and 18.3 points per game. It’s incredible production and I for one am not surprised.

If you were a frequent viewer of the Daily Thunder site in 2009 just before draft time, James Harden was the clear choice for the Thunder. Not because I say so, but truly I think it was the consensus among MOST of the commenters and contributors here. Let me take you back and show you why.

In our fateful 2008-2009–23 win season we started with Kevin Durant as our Shooting Guard, playing out of position for P.J. Carlesimo. We all know how that ended. Coach Brooks came in at game 14 and immediately put Durant at Small Forward where he belonged, but then needed a Shooting Guard. Surveying the landscape he had slim pickings and went with Damien Wilkins. Need I say more? No, I don’t think so. Brooks continued to tinker with the lineup (he tried to be judicious and give several players a shot, guys like Johan Petro, Chris Wilcox, Earl Watson, Robert Swift etc.) until game 27 when he inserted Desmond Mason into the starting lineup alongside Russell Westbrook the rookie. The team began to suddenly get competitive. It was still losing, but getting very close to breaking through.  Finally the team began to gel and on New Years Eve the team beat Golden State by seven. I remember that game very clearly and thought,  “wow, this team aint half bad sometimes”.

That New Years eve game seemed to be some sort of a fulcrum, or high water mark because the team began to win games afterward. It was 3-29 before that game, but  won 20 of it’s last 49 games after. So there was progress. But back to the Shooting Guard issue. Desmond Mason was the starting Shooting Guard and he wasn’t much of a shooter-a gritty defensive workhorse, but not a shooter. There was also Wilkins on the roster who thought he was a shooter (I once heard Chris Mullin say there are “shot makers and shot takers in the NBA”–guess which one Wilkins was?), and also rookie Kyle Weaver.  By late January Mason had blown out his knee and Weaver was in the starting lineup. I love Kyle, but he’s more of a end of the bencher than a starter.  In February Sam Presti picked up Thabo Sefolosha (and shipped out Wilkins and Chucky Atkins and Petro). As you know, Thabo is the starter today, but also isn’t much of a shooter or scorer.

I say all this to say that that Thunder team was dreadful at shooting the three. In fact it was pretty awful at offense in general; but especially the three.  Dead last in the association in 3pt attempts and makes. In fact, the only NBA team that didn’t attempt at least 1000 threes in the season was our Thunder. We needed some shot makers in the lineup big time.

So surveying the draft after that season where we fortuitously had the fourth pick, I think most here knew that with Jeff Green, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook entrenched, the next place to go for shooting was Shooting guard.  Blake Griffin was the prize of the draft but out of our reach.  I don’t know anybody who wanted us to waste a high pick on Hasheem Thabeet, so forget that one. that left the rest of the group of players to us. Some wanted us to go Point Guard and get Ricky Rubio and move Russell over to the 2; there was a loud hue and cry about it, but Russell made a pretty clear statement before the draft that HE WAS THE POINT GUARD.  So really it came down to Harden, Steph Curry and Tyreke Evans, with a minor bit of acknowledgement to Gerald Henderson and Demar Derozan.

Keep in mind also that Russell was our new Point guard who had just led the entire league in turnovers; so a steady hand next to him isn’t a bad thing. That is actually a great point drafting Steph or Tyreke as well, since they both played some Point in college, but Harden fit that bill as well since he ran the pick and roll so well in College and was a primary ball handler.  The team needed a three point shooter, a player who could defend the SG position (against the Kobe’s and Ray Allen’s), a scorer and a player who could handle the rock.

Harden was the clear choice.

Tyreke Evans didn’t hit the three in College, and he doesn’t hit it now. Steph Curry I think is unlikely to ever be even an average defender against opposing NBA Shooting Guards.  James on the other hand has proven to be able to meet all the criteria we needed then and still need now. At the time it was a big question mark about Harden’s defense since Arizona State played exclusive zone, but Harden had a phenomenal showing at the draft combine with his athleticism and private workouts must’ve sealed the deal with Presti.

I think many were lamenting that the Thunder didn’t pick Tyreke after his impressive rookie season, or with Curry after some of his huge games and great shooting, but Harden was the correct pick, and this last body of evidence on the court is just the proof.

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An "anchor" for our 2nd unit, even! ;)

Maynor is the distributor (even though he's not much of a slash/kick out guy) Cook the unabashed shooter and Sefolosha covering up for Cook's D and filling the SF role instead of Harden.

What I can't figure out is why we aren't featuring Maynor as a 3pt guy. They put him w/ two other shooters and he can't get his in. He's become very good from 3. Otherwise, he mostly just uses that pretty floater and passes off to Harden, right?

I think Thabo is great against ball dominating shooters but then again I think Harden is pretty damn good as well. Thabo show some flare as a passer and likes to get inside so he doesn't seem to fit the starting rotation where his only looks come from the perimeter. I think that's why people want him to be a good 3 pt shooter.
And long 2s.... really?
You know what he's good at? Using his long wingspan down low. He's surprising around the rim and is a solid rebounder. It just seems that he shouldn't be a SG but a SF (with limited time at that).

@lafowler255
I disagree. Thabo should give more resistance to those players scoring. If he can't, he shouldn't play. He just hasnt been the defender he once was.

Harden was the straightforward pick for Presti's design, given existing roster and need.

Curry might have worked out alright in a combo role instead of Maynor and part of Harden. His 1 on 1 SG defense in 2008-9 was only a bit worse than Harden's, at least overall.

Joe: "The team needed a three point shooter, a player who could defend the SG position (against the Kobe’s and Ray Allen’s)..."

The defense against the best / biggest SGs in the playoffs was probably considered the most critical difference long-term for making Harden the choice. Though they'd still have Thabo either way for at least the short-term.

The concern with Thabo in is that the offense suffers because of his limitations. It "can", but it appears for the season team scoring when KD is in with Thabo is about the same as KD without Thabo and 1.5 pts per 48 minutes better than KD-Harden so far. That surprised me but there are other factors affecting the results. If you include defense, KD-Harden becomes the 2 point favorite over KD-Thabo on the raw data. I would ideally want to dig deeper before drawing final conclusions.

The long two pointer is the least efficient shot you can take in the game. It's fitting that it's the only one Thabo is even sort of adept with.

Ok Im about to be done here like I said earlier to @innocent bystander

"Yeah Im not defending his offence but games where he is on offensively its a surprise and added plus to the starting group"

@lafowler255

take advantage of what? he can't shoot either way.

@bosco
He just doesnt shoot them as much as he shoots 3s but I think he is better at it.

@justin
Krstic was good at shooting long 2s and after the trade you along with half the people on this blog was wondering where that offense would come from.

Not everyone on your team has to be a 3 point expert. Thabo can shoot three randomly but he is better inside the arch so why not take advantage of that?

" I think too many people are stuck on just 3 point shooting and think he needs to only hit 3s on a consistant basis consistant long distant 2s are just as good for the starting units offense"

Please explain how a long two is just as good as a three for any offense.

gr8ball83 :@innocent
bystander
seriously, I was wondering that too…

hehe, sorry to pick on your typo... just could NOT resist

@lafowler255

the problem with that is he can't shoot long distance two's either.

@innocent bystander
Yeah Im not defending his offence but games where he is on offensively its a surprise and added plus to the starting group only to be amplified by Harden coming off the bench. Which he does at the same time every game and logs a good number of minutes with the Starters and the rest of the bench squads.

Just under the arch Thabo has been pretty consistant. And he gets to the rim for lots of rebounds and easy buckets. I think too many people are stuck on just 3 point shooting and think he needs to only hit 3s on a consistant basis consistant long distant 2s are just as good for the starting units offense he should just take more of them when he is open, maybe a pump fake and step into a mid range could be his butter?? maybe...

@innocent bystander
seriously, I was wondering that too...

I like to think of myself as a "guy people". One who can appreciate the "gal peoples".

@gr8ball83
yeah the people that cant make the layup are funny

@gr8ball83
what's a "guy people" ???
;)

the deal with Thabo is.. if he shot his "average" percentage in every game, we'd probably be alright.

what really happens, though, is Thabo has a good shooting game every fifth or sixth game and puts up some decent numbers. Then, in between, he's cold as Anarctica and kills us. The occasional "hot" game makes his overall numbers look better.

@gr8ball83
whoa, guy people? weird...

@f5alcon
no no, I got it, the guy people that miss the half court shot by 50 feet, or the cox bundle shooters that can't make the layup.

@gr8ball83
lol yeah sounds about right

@f5alcon
well crap, what context do you put Evans in to show that he isn't a bad shooter? Is there something below the rain drops dance team? Maybe the Zumba half time people?

gr8ball83 :@innocent
bystander
but he’s not a bad shooter, since Evans isn’t a bad shooter, and Thabo shoots better percentages than him…

LOL, you got me there!

@gr8ball83
you just have to put it in context, thabo isnt a bad shooter when he plays against the raindrops junior dance team.

@innocent bystander
but he's not a bad shooter, since Evans isn't a bad shooter, and Thabo shoots better percentages than him...

@lafowler255
gotta give it to ya, you're pushing hard for your man!

trouble is, Thabo's been with the team for two and a half years now. We've seen what he brings to the table. And, offensively, it ain't much. I love the guy myself, but honestly, he's had more than ample opportunity to show what he can do with an open shot. He just isn't a shooter, and likely never will be.

@ThunderStudy Professor

you really need to give up. if you just compare freshmen years, they put up about the same ppg, with harden shoting 54% and evans shooting 43%, with harden of course being in a much better conference. harden was an absolute beast in college. not saying evans wasn't a good player in college, because he was, but harden was better.

@gr8ball83
well that does make you an mvp candidate

@kfmsooner
Vince Carter Was shooting Very contested 3 pointers and was draining them left and right no matter who was guarding him. Joe Johnson had to put up a lot of shots just to get 24 points and its Joe Johnson his size is tough to guard. These guys are GREAT scorers even with sound defense on them they still can score.

Just like Durant had to adjust this year to seeing more and more double teams, a good defender like Thabo has to constantly be aware of better screens set against him and scorers learning ways to get around him. Bowen Im sure wasnt always called a dirtly /cheap shot player and I dont know if Artest was always as physical a defender as he is now. Im sure each year they learned better ways to defend. Artest even said over the off season that he needed to loose some weight in order to keep up with Durant.

If Thabo could never guard or was in his 30s and was regressing I would agree but the he can still increase in defensive ability. Plus we are not breaking the bank on his contract so allow him to stay until something much better (that doesnt kill our bench scoring or salary) is added to the team.

@f5alcon
but he's really good at the layup shot and the dunk shot.....

@gr8ball83
lol, for pgs with over 45 attempts from 3-9 feet he is worst in the league

@f5alcon
So he's not a bad shooter..... right? ;)

@gr8ball83
yeah he is bottom 10 for point guards with more than 20 mpg at every distance except at the rim

@ThunderStudy Professor
Time will tell. At the time of the draft, based on the body of evidence there was no clear consensus that 'reke would be a better pro than Harden. Ask yourself this: if you were to survey NBA coaches/GMs, as to who they would want on their team now, do you think they would want Harden or Evans? I don't see how many NBA insiders would choose Evans at this point, for all the reasons Jax laid out above; plus injury issues.

@ThunderStudy Professor
he has worse shooting percentages than Thabo freaking Sefolosha, and you're saying he's not a bad shooter???

I didn't say he was a good 'shooter'. I said he wasn't a bad one. Learn how to read. How many points per game does Thabo average? And Evans? I would be quite if I were you.

@bosco

Harden was better? Would you have said that on the day we drafted him? Some pople thouroughly amaze me. That's a joke, right???????????????????

@ThunderStudy Professor
Oh yes, Shooting 43.9% from the field and 27% from 3 makes him an Excellent shooter doesn't it?? Thabo is shooting 47% from the field and 30% from 3, and you're telling me that Evans is a good shooter?? Who is ignorant here....??

@lafowler255
How many times this year has Thabo shut down the other guy? No more than a handful. And he has been torched how many games? Heck, Jodie Meeks got off the other night. I remember Vince Carter ripping him a few weeks a go. Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, Monta Ellis, etc. It's harder finding opposing shooting guards that struggled against Thabo than to find the ones that took it to him.

He's good, but he's no longer good enough to justify the lack of offense he provides. He should be the 10th man in the rotation...

@ThunderStudy Professor

Before you get defensive, you need to check out his hot spots and his hoopdata breakdown. His % at the rim is great. Everything else is average or well below average.

@gr8ball83

He can't shoot? If you are the coach of the opposing team, and you're playing the Kings tonight, who will you focus your defense on? My point exactly. He is all they have. Cousins is coming around, but who else would you defend? Head? Garcia? Dalembert? Evans has a career 43.9 % FG average. And thats with the defense keyed on him. And you say he can't shoot? It sounds like another case of somebody who talks about things they are completely ignorant about.

@ThunderStudy Professor

I would argue that Evans is a great basketball player because he can do one thing better than 99% of the league, and that's dribble right, get to the rim and finish.

I'm not impressed with his lateral quickness, but he is 6'6''. I'm not impressed with his ability to set up an offense, but he can drive and kick. I'm not impressed with his shot, not his midrange or his outside shot. However, he can finish at the rim in a way that reminds me of Tony Parker or Steve Nash - not that they are circus shots that go in, but that they somehow find a way to avoid every attempt at a block. I'm not impressed with Evans' athleticism. He's fast, but he's not quick, and he doesn't jump well. He is long though, and at his height he doesn't need to have hops.

But like I say, he has that one skill that he'll be able to rely on his whole career, but the rest of his team will have to adjust to hide his deficiencies in all those other areas. Every team does that for every player, so I'm not trying to say he's the only one like that.

But I see James as much more polished with many more aspects of his game developed to a higher level. He's a better playmaker IMO.

And all you have to do to stop Evans is force him to dribble left. That's it. You grin every time down the court the you force Tyreke to take a shot, or drive left, because you've just turned him into a totally average player.

Tyreke needs to develop.

@lafowler255
I've watched every game this year. Thabo is not what he once was. Maybe he plays better defense than our 2 all-stars, but he has no offense. For Thabo to be an effective player, he needs to be 2nd team all-defense, like last year, b.c he is one the worst offensive starters in the whole league.

I think we should leave Harden on the B team for scoring. He has started finding his offense, and Collison isn't exactly a go to post man.

maybe even better if Durant and Westbrook buys in.

innocent bystander :
oh and btw… nice to see you posting again Joe!

Thank you sir. I just do what I can when I have time.

andrew :

dream catcher :

justin :@dream
catcher
Bowen could shoot, and they had an elite defense.

we will have an elite defense down the road as well.

This seems rather presumptuous. I would say this teams is projecting to be a top 5 offensive team and about tenth best in defensive efficiency in the future.

with the way they talk about it, and the organizations beliefs, I think we will be a top 5 offense and top 5 defense in a few years.

@ThunderStudy Professor

Harden was the better player in college.

I'd like to see Harden continue to come off the bench, at least for this season. Many teams seem to go on cruise-control when they put in their second team, but I think Harden allows the Thunder to loudly squeal their tires when they shift into second. lol I REALLY liked the second team line-up of Maynor, Harden, Cook, Collison, and Aldrich. Two 'nuts & bolts' guys down low, two deadly scorers, and a good traffic cop to direct it all. On the first team, I'd like to see them encourage Thabo to shoot more. He doesn't have to be great...we've already got two great scorers in the starting line-up and a third one on the way in Serge...all Thabo has to do is hit enough of his shots to keep defenses honest and I think he's capable of doing that. Maybe it's just my imagination, but I think Thabo has already stepped up his game some. He seems to be rebounding a lot more than I remember and is shooting with more confidence.

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  1. [...] The Basketball Jones. Barack Obama won’t stop with the freakin’ Bulls already. 9th: Daily Thunder. James Harden, two years in. 10th: NBA.com. Very cool Steve Aschburner feature on the linkage [...]

  2. [...] The Basketball Jones. Barack Obama won’t stop with the freakin’ Bulls already. 9th: Daily Thunder. James Harden, two years in. 10th: NBA.com. Very cool Steve Aschburner feature on the linkage [...]