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Tuesday Bolts – 3.15.11

Daily Thunder bracket group! Join if you’re so inclined to do such things. There’s a new Perk shirt in it for the winner (or a shirt of your choice if you don’t want that one).

Jakob Eich of Piston Powered on guarding Russell Westbrook: “Westbrook is a very effective guard. He has an all-around skill set. He’s incredibly fast, he has a good jumper, he can finish at the rim, and he shoots free throws fairly well. His quickness is a problem for all NBA teams, not even the quickest of the quickest can stay in front of him, so I won’t blame any Detroit guard for not doing so.”

Dissecting the science of bank shots.

Darnell Mayberry: “The tandem of Perkins and Ibaka is every bit as good as we thought it could be. And there is a lot of room for growth there. Granted, it’s only one game against the Wizards. But the makings of a fantastic frontcourt was on display tonight. Perkins’ low-post defense coupled with Ibaka’s shot-blocking is going to give a lot of teams trouble. That duo will have a lot to learn together, but the resistance at the rim just got 120 times better.”

From Elias: “Kevin Durant scored 32 points against the Wizards on Monday and that was his lowest total in any of his last four games against Washington in the three others he scored 40, 35 and 35. Durant’s streak against the Wizards is tied for the second-longest current streak of 30-point games by any player against any team. Kevin Martin has scored 30-plus in his last five games against Cleveland; Durant also has a four-game streak against Miami; Danny Granger has a four-game streak against Sacramento and LeBron James had a four-game spree versus Portland.”

Big Z will likely miss Wednesday’s game versus the Thunder.

Via ESPN Stats and Info, Kevin Durant notched his 100th career 30-point game last night against the Wizards, just one of only two players with at least 100 30-point games before turning 23 over the last 25 seasons.

KD, doing things the right way.

One more time because I find it so interesting: What are the Wizards doing here?

Via NewsOK, with seven blocks against the Cavs and another eight against the Wizards, Ibaka also became the franchise’s first player to block 15 shots in two games since Alton Lister, who registered a combined 16 blocks on March 13, 1989 and March 14, 1989.

Absolutely fantastic photos of KD’s oop from last night.

NBA.com MVP watch: “As Durant gets more help from guard Russell Westbrook — who picked up his fifth Western Conference Player of the Week award — it takes a little shine off the smooth forward’s MVP case. Here’s some good news though: If Durant maintains his current 28.2 scoring pace, No. 2 LeBron James would have to average 35.6 ppg over the Heat’s final 17 to pass him for the scoring title.”

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rain1217 :
Enough about the fab-five from 20-something years ago already. How lame. We have got the Miami Heat on the schedule in a little more than 24 hours. Is anyone as nervous as I am??

i hope we can finally get this monkey off our back..

@rain1217
No. We owe them one and are now at full-strength, health wise. Serge and Perk can send a message to the entire universe about our interior defensive leap. "NEXT IS NOW!!" Let's do this! GO THUNDER!

Enough about the fab-five from 20-something years ago already. How lame. We have got the Miami Heat on the schedule in a little more than 24 hours. Is anyone as nervous as I am??

@Daniel Plainview
Yeah, MSU Alum. I mentioned before that I'm biased, but so much of the stuff that happened was beyond appalling. Does being a "family" make up for those guys taking recruits out to drug and alcohol parties when everyone involved was underaged? Does those guys overcoming personal adversity make up for taking hundreds of thousands of dollars from someone getting his money from criminal actions?

Let's be honest, things are always a lot more hunky dory when everyone is rich and winning. Where's the documentary on the Flintstones at MSU? Guys who actually won a championship, who all came together from the same place, and who didn't do it by breaking NCAA and federal laws.

Daniel Plainview :

Keith :@f5alconIt’s strange to me that people can take so much positive out of the Fab Five. I’m admittedly biased, having going to Michigan State, but the whole thing was a black mark. The team was a bunch of choke artists who changed the game in a starkly negative way as much as positive. What is honestly the difference between the Fab Five and what Calipari does (and has been caught cheating already)?I’m sure it means many things to many people, but the Fab Five is, in my mind, the fall of college basketball. It taints the way you see every top recruiting class. It always makes you question your own morals when you see a top recruit go to a rival school thinking, “Maybe if we just would have offered him more money.”

MSU Alum? I live in Lansing, work in Okemos, big MSU fan, bigger OKC fan

I have not seen the doc, but being from Michigan and being a MSU fan, U of M HATER, I somewhat agree with what Keith is saying here. I forget the particulars of the corruption, but it wasnt all sunshine. A tremendous story, nonetheless.

Daniel :
Everyone’s favorite game is now back!
ESPN’s Playoff Predictor
http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/predictions
Took me exactly 11 simulations before I finally got OKC to win the championship. We beat #5 Denver, #8 Memphis (who upset the Spurs), #2 Dallas, and finally #2 Chicago. Interstingly, Hollinger gives us a 65% chance of beating Denver in the first round. We’re 31%-69% underdogs to San Antonio, 28%-72% underdogs to Dallas, and 22%-78% underdogs to LA.

I have OKC over chicago for the title on my first try :)

TempBoy Brandon :Love this bit from the Hollinger chat:
Ryan (LA)
What could possibly be your argument against Rose as MVP OTHER than PER?
John Hollinger (2:10 PM)
You mean, besides the fact we’re giving it to the key offensive player on the league’s 15th-best offense, when the story of the team’s surprise season has been their top-rated defense, and he’s been the worst defender on the team in terms of plus-minus … for the second time in three years? Must just be my irrational hater bias at work again.

Wow and ouch

Keith :@f5alconIt’s strange to me that people can take so much positive out of the Fab Five. I’m admittedly biased, having going to Michigan State, but the whole thing was a black mark. The team was a bunch of choke artists who changed the game in a starkly negative way as much as positive. What is honestly the difference between the Fab Five and what Calipari does (and has been caught cheating already)?
I’m sure it means many things to many people, but the Fab Five is, in my mind, the fall of college basketball. It taints the way you see every top recruiting class. It always makes you question your own morals when you see a top recruit go to a rival school thinking, “Maybe if we just would have offered him more money.”

MSU Alum? I live in Lansing, work in Okemos, big MSU fan, bigger OKC fan

Hey, I'm not sure if anyone would be interested, but I recently acquired this link for a 6 degrees of separation between basketball players:

https://www.hcs.harvard.edu/pallas/

It's not perfect, I got an answer with 8 connections, but it's still interesting.

dream catcher :KD has a 9’2″ standing reach and a 7’4.75″ wingspanIbaka a 9’3″ standing reach and a 7’3″ wingspan

How old are those numbers, I swear I saw them standing next to each otehr and KD is taller

Love this bit from the Hollinger chat:

Ryan (LA)

What could possibly be your argument against Rose as MVP OTHER than PER?

John Hollinger (2:10 PM)

You mean, besides the fact we're giving it to the key offensive player on the league's 15th-best offense, when the story of the team's surprise season has been their top-rated defense, and he's been the worst defender on the team in terms of plus-minus ... for the second time in three years? Must just be my irrational hater bias at work again.

@Daniel Plainview
I don't know about that...Thornton is a high volume shooter. He needs the ball to do well. He's not JH or DC that can just sit at the 3 point line and bomb away. It should tell you something that Thornton got traded from a NO team that doesn't have great wing play. I think he will play well with an injury riddled Sacto team, but when Tyreke and Garcia are healthy, I bet Thornton's game suffers too.

If are so much as have a 4 point lead, you think we were losing by 20

innocent bystander :@GlennPThunderUp“you guys… are some of the most level headed…”
never visited during a game thread, I see…

Haha

man, I was pushing for MArcus Thorton at Draft deadline. If he backed up Harden and Cook KD? The Threes!!!

@Crow
I want to see the RW/JH/KD/SI/KP lineup get some burn.

Is it too late to join the DT Bracket?

@gr8ball83
I guess 0/3 in the second round huh...?

@Daniel
Yeah I think we only won 3 times out of 10 in the first round... and 0/10 in the second round

@gr8ball83
It may just be me, but it seems like the nuggets beat us a lot more than 35% of the time!

Brooks was tried 5 lineups with Westbrook-Harden-Durant over 50 minutes and the only good one on raw team +/- to date is Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Collison. None of the others remain possible.

He has tried 6 versions of Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant over 50 minutes. 3 were positive but 2 are no longer possible after the trade. The remaining positive on raw +/- is Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Mohammed. 2 more were near neutral but they are not possible either.

Will Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins get tested much in games against Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins?
Good lineups with Westbrook-Durant and other core guys seem pretty rare (too rare) and pretty important to find and use.

@f5alcon
It's strange to me that people can take so much positive out of the Fab Five. I'm admittedly biased, having going to Michigan State, but the whole thing was a black mark. The team was a bunch of choke artists who changed the game in a starkly negative way as much as positive. What is honestly the difference between the Fab Five and what Calipari does (and has been caught cheating already)?

I'm sure it means many things to many people, but the Fab Five is, in my mind, the fall of college basketball. It taints the way you see every top recruiting class. It always makes you question your own morals when you see a top recruit go to a rival school thinking, "Maybe if we just would have offered him more money."

So, I know it doesn't mean anything, but on the ESPN playoff predictor I did it like 10 times and 3 times the blazers made the finals and once they won it all. we never made it past the spurs. stupid machines.

@f5alcon
That's because they aren't any good.

im reading the wizards blog game thread, they are tougher on their guys than we are on ours.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@CenOK@Grolgar
,
Justin’s answered that same question several times – something like a contract technical writer.
I get points if I’m correct, btw.

#winning!

@Ozarkhick
It probably doesn't help that you could hear throngs of Thunder fans in the stands. I've noticed that a lot during road games lately. It's like they're the Lakers or something.

@Ozarkhick
Wow, that's pretty bad.

Lol - the Wizards are so intent on copying us now, they are telling their fans to stand up until they score. It didn't work so well since they didn't score until after the first time out. The PA guy had to come on and tell people to stand up again, apparently producing a nearly audible groan.

@kfmsooner
only if kelly actually doesnt like in oklahoma, cause justin doesnt

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@CenOK@Grolgar
,
Justin’s answered that same question several times – something like a contract technical writer.
I get points if I’m correct, btw.

You win. Good memory!

@Keith

Some coaches apparently have strong views on how much to go for offensive rebounds or get back for transition defense but only about 2 teams vary by much more than 1 from league average.

It is a matter of degree but only 3 teams are ranked in the bottom 10 on both offensive and defensive efficiency. (The Kings are 20th on the other efficiency but that isn't bottom 10.) 8 teams are below average on both. But 5 sub .500 teams are only below average on one efficiency.

It would probably be useful to chart a game with a guess at every substitution and every timeout (and every major change in playcalling) of what was the coach thinking or what did he say and was it right and what were the full set of options and which would you have chosen. Do that 20-50-200 times explicitly in a stored fashion and review the results you might have even stronger opinions about the quality of coaching and / or the quality of your own consul. Of course some folks do this casually in their head.

@CenOK , @Grolgar ,@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I thought he was Kelly Crull, live blogging from game sites...

@Crow
Obviously a lot goes into it, but it seems most sub .500 teams are bad on both ends. If a team is aware they don't defend well even in the half court, the cost of giving up fast-break opportunities lessens.

But I suppose that is the million dollar question. How much does coaching affect the game situationally, rather than over time (where system certainly plays a factor)?

Im not scared of the nuggets with perk to check nene and KD abusing gallinari....westbrook needs to step his defense up tho or lawson will get into the paint. of course you wanna see the hornets but that doesnt seem likely

@Keith

I'd say a team that shoots a lower percentage for a quarter or half and is down by more than a little probably ought to shift their standard offensive rebounding strategy some to attack the offensive glass even harder later in an attempt to create more points. But they should know what the average reward is and what the consequential cost of increased offensive rebounding effort is on transition defense, the quality of their opponent's transition offense in general and on that night and make a decision based on consideration of all those factors and time left and how far they are down, whether they are on the road or at home and how streaky their shooters are and how good they tend to be late in games in general and when down.

@CenOK , @Grolgar

Justin's answered that same question several times - something like a contract technical writer.

I get points if I'm correct, btw.

@kreese29
Yes, the D-league is that bad. Anyone with a semblance of offensive game will look like a superstar down there. It's hard to account, though, for just how bad Mullens is defensively and unaware on the court.

@Grolgar
he has said what he does before, some sort of consultant.

@Keith

That is the mega question about coaching. How much do you adjust?

If the sequences of good and bad outcomes unfold somewhat randomly and you react to the good and bad too much you probably adjusting too much. But don't adjust enough and the game win probability can easily be noticeably influenced by a run or two not stopped.

CenOK :
Justin, just out of curiosity, what do you do? It seems like there is never a time I get on this site and you haven’t posted something within the last 15 minutes. I want your job.

He's on here right up until he gets a personal question... Hmmmmm. Secret agent? KGB? Jimmy Hoffa?

@kreese29

The Cavs would play him, but that's because they're already playing 4 DLeague players regular minutes.

As much as the DLeague is helping guys out, the majority of it is still individuals trying to put up stats to get noticed by an NBA team. If we don't give guys credit for putting up stats on a bad team, we should go even further with our skepticism of a guy on a DLeague team.

Mullens is avg 16 and 7 in the d league. Is the d league that bad? I think were not giving him a chance at the next level. It's kind of hard to evaluate someone when they only play a few mins.

@f5alcon

If you have a guy (or guys) who go for blocks, it would be ideal to have strong defensive rebounders and scramble team defenders inside to cover the basket when the block is missed.

And it would also be good to drill players that going for a block is not the end of a play action for them but that it should be immediately followed by defense of their man or somebody and blockout & rebounding. And that block attempts should probably be straight up and not flying moves past guys.

@Crow
Do you think there is legitimacy to the idea that teams will adjust to the way individual games are going? That is, does a team that shoots a lower percentage (especially one that is already a relatively poor defensive team) attack the offensive glass harder in an attempt to create points? Obviously personnel is the largest factor, but I do wonder if/how well teams adjust to in-game conditions.

@kreese29
yes we traded for the draft rights to lat will in the 2nd rd last year