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I agree with you in general, the right goal is to make the overall team better, though you’d have to look at minutes.

In order, the 18 minutes with starters probably are the most important as they affect the early scoreboard and set the tone. Then the 18 minutes of mixed lineups, then the 12 minutes of pure 2nd unit.

Harden’s production is less important than the unit production if you are just looking at them for that block of time. If his stats go down playing with the starter while the unit goes up, that would be a win for that level, though you’d still want to look at overall team results as discussed in the previous comments.

TaoMaas :@justin

No, the point of Harden starting would be to make the overall TEAM better. If a gain in the starting unit is offset by a larger decline in the 2nd unit, then the team loses.

I agree with you in general, the right goal is to make the overall team better, though you'd have to look at minutes.

In order, the 18 minutes with starters probably are the most important as they affect the early scoreboard and set the tone. Then the 18 minutes of mixed lineups, then the 12 minutes of pure 2nd unit.

justin :@Crow

The point of Harden starting is not for Harden to be productive, it’s for the whole starting unit to be productive.

I agree with that too, as far it goes. Harden's production is less important than the unit production if you are just looking at them for that block of time. If his stats go down playing with the starter while the unit goes up, that would be a win for that level, though you'd still want to look at overall team results as discussed in the previous comments.

TaoMaas :@justin

No, the point of Harden starting would be to make the overall TEAM better. If a gain in the starting unit is offset by a larger decline in the 2nd unit, then the team loses.

This has been explained ad nauseum, starters are more important than bench, you can stagger rotations, "2nd unit" does not need to exist. No problems are being shifted around. It would just require Brooks to be more creative with rotations. It's not a difficult concept, almost every other team does something like this.

@doof

The problem is first team scoring. It solves nothing to add to the first team while diminishing the second team. All you've done is shift the problem around without really solving it.

It does make the team better. How is starting unit scoring not a bigger issue than bench scoring? Would be refreshing to not feel like we are digging out of a hole from the start in some games, and have the ability to put away bad teams early on in other games.

@justin

No, the point of Harden starting would be to make the overall TEAM better. If a gain in the starting unit is offset by a larger decline in the 2nd unit, then the team loses.

@Crow

The point of Harden starting is not for Harden to be productive, it's for the whole starting unit to be productive.

@Crow

You are exactly right. Moving Harden to the first team won't mean that his numbers come with him because he'd become the #3 scoring option, instead of #1 like he is on the second team. Really...if you were to guess, would you think that Harden would get more touches with Durant/Westbrook on the floor beside him or with Maynor/Cook? If we want Harden with the ball in his hands as much as possible (and I'm one who thinks we DO want that), he needs to continue to play with the second team. If we're hell-bent on replacing Thabo in the starting unit, I'd almost be in favor of promoting Cook (since he'll only be a 3rd option) and trading Thabo/Mullens/Ivey for another 3-point specialist for the 2nd team.

If Harden starts then in say the 18 minutes all the starters play together you'd have to find room for him to get about 7 of his current shots and maybe you want to take more. These shots would have to come out of Westbrook, Durant and Ibaka in these minutes though they would probably get some more offsetting shots during the transition lineups where Harden is no longer present. I am not sure exactly how the shots and the overall style of play would be affected. It would probably take some major talks to get Westbrook and Durant to regularly and willingly give back starting unit shots to Harden which they are accustomed to. But if Harden is ever to start it would have to be done. How well it will work, hard to say in advance of trying and trying with commitment. If you don't do it in the next week or two, you probably either wait til next season or perhaps they wait til the point in the playoffs where they are forced to adjust and then have to wing it without much experience.

@Ozarkhick

I'm not sure I'd distinguish a core of the second team over other parts. I'd think of it as being fairly egalitarian or at least it probably should be.

If we assume they play 2 stints of about 6 minutes together and the other minutes the players get coming in staggered rotations that would mean the second team plays 12 minutes or 25% of the game as a unit. In the playoffs it will probably be less or might disappear as a unit altogether. But for now that group would have to split about 20 shots during that time. Maybe it would on average go something like

Maynor 3-5
Cook 4-6
Thabo 3-4
Collison 2-3
Mohammed 4-6

They should run plays or at least move the ball. Exploit the best match-up or feed the hot hand. Maynor could play pick and somebody pop, or occasionally throw it to Nazr in the post and have him use it or flare it back out to the 3 point shooters to shoot or quick pass around then shoot. He should also look for Thabo cutting. Nick should set screens for anyone and look to offensive rebound. With Nick and Nazr offensive rebounding you probably don't want to get too fancy and risk turnovers, just take a decent look and try to get it back if need be.

Thunder S :
Though part of our offensive struggles is not having enough shooters on the floor, i think the other part of it is just RW’s mentality right now. When RW looks to set people up, he is excellent. I just think he wants to be the scorer, all star, the hero (tho shaq says this is just a sandwich), the guy. if he doesnt score for a long period, he feels the need to take his midrange without surveying the other options. i understand the work in progress point, just saying wish someone would tell him its just as legit to not be the focal pt.

that's one of the things I worry about with Westbrook. He's a really selfish player at times.

@cdspark
mine to had them in final 4

Maynor doesn't have near the physical abilities Westbrook does (obviously) but his court vision WAY better. That's obvious to anyone who has watched the Thunder regularly this year. He's a great contrast to Russ because when Russ gets into one of his stretches where he forces everything Maynor can come in and move the ball. He's not going to beat the quicker NBA pg's off the dribble but he will distribute the ball and find the open man which is what we need sometimes.

Pitt just killed my bracket, what a horrible last 15 seconds of basketball

Heat could just about lock up the division for us tonight.

Go Lebron!

8:32 left in the New Orleans-Boston game. New Orleans up 32-23. Jeff Green with 6 points, 1 rebound. David West with 11 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks. Shocking.

@justin

So, just to play devil's advocate, who will compose the core of the second team? (I know we can stagger rotations, but don't put anything past Brooks)

Maynor/Cook/Sefo/Collie/Naz

Not sure how effective that would be. yeah, I know, stagger the rotations, but just hypothetically speaking here.

Russ' USG% since the trade is at 34%! That's way too high. Ibaka and Perkins won't take enough shots to make up for what Green and Krstic left behind. This is why Harden has to start.

yeah when russ penetrates someone is going to be open usually for an easy dunk he forces it at the rim sometimes but we need his scoring with our starting lineup. Ibaka has been a beast during this winning streak

Though part of our offensive struggles is not having enough shooters on the floor, i think the other part of it is just RW's mentality right now. When RW looks to set people up, he is excellent. I just think he wants to be the scorer, all star, the hero (tho shaq says this is just a sandwich), the guy. if he doesnt score for a long period, he feels the need to take his midrange without surveying the other options. i understand the work in progress point, just saying wish someone would tell him its just as legit to not be the focal pt.

So with Maynor the consideration right now is mostly whether to give 12, 16 or 20 minutes or maybe rarely more and when to do so.

The more you look, you more you can find.

Looking at Maynor with 2, 3 and 4 starters (past or present starters) in lineups used more than 3 minutes (I didn't feel like do the lineups under 3 minutes) I found:

Maynor with 4 starters- tried 26 minutes in these lineups and -3.7 per 48 minutes.

Maynor with 3 starters- tried 75 minutes in these lineups and -0.6 per 48 minutes.

Maynor with 2 starters- tried 26 minutes in these lineups and 3.8 per 48 minutes.

All small samples but there is a trend, supporting Justin's basic take. Worth something?

No lineup run for Maynor with Perkins over 3 minutes yet. Looks like only 2 minutes with him at all. And they turned out bad. But of course shouldn't conclude firmly from 2 minutes or even 25 or 75 right?

@justin

I agree.

@Crow

The team is definitely much better off, the front court defensive issues having been largely squared away with a healthy Perkins.

The lone issue to me is shooting in the starting rotation. It almost encourages a high usage Westbrook.

Maynor certainly has room for improvement. Despite his not being able to hit his 2 point shots recently, March is arguably from a total efficiency standpoint his best month of his career.

Looking at team +/- for just the last 10 games both Westbrook and Maynor have done fabulous with Maynor only having a slight raw +/- per minute edge.

The entire rotation has good raw +/- for the last 10 games. So maybe most of the issues went away with the trade.

Crow :
Yes the gap is almost entirely on defense and was heavily affected by the difference between the previous interior starters and the bench. Westbrook with Ibaka-Perkins is the right thing to try right now.

Yes, but we're going to now see a difference in offensive productivity, I suspect, instead of defense since the team lost floor spacing in the starting rotation.

Yes the gap is almost entirely on defense and was heavily affected by the difference between the previous interior starters and the bench. Westbrook with Ibaka-Perkins is the right thing to try right now.

Maynor has 6 of the top 15 player pairs for raw total +/- for the season. Westbrook 1. And Westbrook was the advantage of far more minutes and a much higher % with Durant to run up the total +/- but he hasn't this season.

Last season Westbrook had the advantage. The reason for the difference? Maybe Westbrook's higher usage and lesser defense? And folks getter more comfortable working with Maynor?

The offense is one point better per 100 possessions with Maynor on the court, a very modest increase considering he's playing mostly against other team's benches. But the defense is 10 points better per 100 possessions.

Russ has work to do defensively, but not that much...

I understand what you're saying; but I'm fairly confident that those splits are due to our rotations and our bench lineups in particular being more balanced in terms of floor spacing and (for most of the season and all of last season) defensive responsibilities.

It seems to me like it's defense that is mostly improved this season with Eric Maynor on the court, and while Westbrook definitely must get re-focused there, I imagine that has a lot more to do with the front court rotation. Specifically Ibaka / Collison vs. Krstic / Green or similar splits.

Maynor and Westbrook compliment each other extremely well. One player is a much better penetrator and scorer, while the other has a much higher BBall IQ and is more unselfish.

should be... He gets less than 40% of his "time" with Durant.

Allen I

raw +/-

Maynor without Durant +4.9 per 48 minutes
Maynor with Durant +11.5 per 48 minutes

He gets less than 40% of his less with Durant.

That is admittedly just the start of the story.
But there might be some additional value to get out of it, especially in games when Westbrook is not going well for the team.

Westbrook doesnt pass the ball. Hes had Harden and KD open several times yesterday and ignored them.

@justin

I agree that "the team not losing ground has far more to do with the set of players we have coming off the bench with Maynor" than Maynor and said so yesterday.

I said Maynor was slightly positive on Adjusted +/- today.

I wouldn't want to exaggerate his impact.

I've said Westbrook is near neutral on Adjusted +/- for all his minutes. I've said a couple of times that Westbrook-Durant isn't that great on raw +/- but yes of course that is against a tougher level of competition.

"Maynor on the court allows Harden and others to do more, but is that a strength of Maynor or a deficiency of Westbrook?" That is part of what I was highlighting. It is a good question. It may have more to do with the other players reacting to them than either of the PGs per se but it seems worth considering further.

Maynor with most of the starters wouldn't have to be for long stretches. It could be a little here and there, probably in the middle or end of quarters or the start of the 4th. There may be specific games situations were it didn't work but I find no lineup where Maynor has gotten the opportunity to play with more than 2 starters in that lineup for more than 10 minutes this season. That leaves a lot of unknown territory unexplored. Maybe I'll add up all the little bits of time when Maynor was gotten to play with 2, 3 or 4 starters but it probably won't convince regardless. Maynor-Durant being fabulous at over 800 minutes over 2 seasons and far better than Westbrook-Durant would probably still be the best fact I could point to right now for possibly exploring more time with Maynor out there; whether it draws interest in more such minutes or not from others is up to others.

@okc baby

Maynor almost always has at least two shooters on the floor with him (two of Harden, Cook, Durant).

Maynor-Thabo-Durant-Green-Krstic played 8 minutes this year and was horrendous.

Having shooters on the court is imperative, especially when our coach describes our offense as "drive and kick". I think you and others are underestimating the effect of not playing with shooters has on Russ.

Maynors played with Sef and Cook and still does well. Cop out

okc baby :
How was Maynor destroyed at Miami. He got guys open looks and they didnt knock em down. So then he hit that three to stop the run by Miami. hahahah Maynors fault or the like of a real offense for the starters?

The team could not score because Maynor cannot break down a defense, or create his own shot. Without Harden on the floor as a secondary handler (Harden often gets the hand off from Maynor and is the ipso facto creator), Maynor is pretty much left naked.

We had a rushed Ibaka mid range shot, a Durant mid range shot, Maynor turned the ball over, then we had a shot clock violation. Four fruitless possessions in a row. Maynor hit the big three, but again it came off a broken play and a short shot clock.

It's not "Maynor's fault". It's hard to create offense without floor spacing and shooters for any point guard unless you're in a Jerry Sloan offense or something.

Get your panties out of a bunch. Crows not trying to replace Westbrook

lack*

How was Maynor destroyed at Miami. He got guys open looks and they didnt knock em down. So then he hit that three to stop the run by Miami. hahahah Maynors fault or the like of a real offense for the starters?

@Crow

I dunno. The information can be useful but I think thin data tends to create perceptions that are thin more often than they create accurate representations of what is occurring. I could be wrong.

@Crow

I'll contend that the team not losing ground has far more to do with the set of players we have coming off the bench with Maynor, and the fact that he's playing mostly against backups. For much of the season we had two starting quality players coming off the bench (Harden, Ibaka) and we still have one (Harden).

Maynor on the court allows Harden and others to do more, but is that a strength of Maynor or a deficiency of Westbrook? I'd rather run Westbrook out with competent lineups and get his game adapted to them rather than explore Maynor-heavy lineups. Maynor was destroyed the other night against Miami in the two minutes he played with the starters at the end of the first half, with Thabo in instead of Harden. I suspect that's what we'd see consistently in those situations, should they occur more often, as Maynor lacks Westbrook's ability to create his own shot. Which he would need with no shooters on the floor with him.

I am not saying Maynor is better or "deserves" or will surely handle more time well. I am saying it is an option worth considering further, as needed or as desired.

@justin

Which would you prefer: to know the information and largely or entirely dismiss it afterwards or to not know it?

It might not matter much some or a lot of the time but I'd rather know the information and consider whether it means anything or is worth gathering more data on rather than not looking for it and looking at it.

@CLE, SAC, HOU, @WAS, CLE, LAC all blowout wins where Russ sat.

The only game I remember where Russ sat for Maynor and we pulled out the win was that home game against NOH when Russ was horrible and Maynor played a lot in the 2nd half.

Yes blowouts could affect the Maynor over 20+ minutes data so I was upfront about it not being a simple clear answer. But him playing bigger minutes has not been associated, at least by simple averages, with the team losing ground. If you take out blowouts it may be different. One could look at Maynor's and Westbrook's raw +/- by quarter. I'd hope they have.

Seven if the games Maynor played 20+ minutes this year were blowout wins where Westbrook sat for posterity. Another was the Milwaukee game that Durant missed, and Maynor played a lot with Westbrook. A couple others were blowout losses.

Again, taking that kind of data out of this context doesn't seem meaningful.

Haterade