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Monday Bolts – 2.14.11

Darnell Mayberry on the Warriors game: “Something really stood out in this one. Many of Golden State’s offensive rebounds and second-chance points came as a result of Thunder defenders having to help. Nothing new there. That’s been a theme all season. But I was amazed at how confused Thunder players were once they committed to helping. On several possessions, players had no idea where their man was once they went to help. It’s hard to put a body on someone or find them to recover when you don’t know where they are.”

The 66ers have been pretty successful in Tulsa says John Klein of the Tulsa World: “But the most recent ownership change and affiliation move to be linked with the Thunder has worked wonders for the on-court success of the team. The 66ers still have a tough time drawing fans for home games at the Tulsa Convention Center Arena. However, Tulsa has been very successful as a team, tied for the West Conference lead even after losses to Utah on Friday and Saturday nights. It would appear the success of the Thunder, one of the youngest and most successful teams in the NBA, is filtering down to the 66ers.

Ethan Sherwood Strauss of Warriors World: “There’s a media trope floating around that David Lee went out and responded to negative publicity. I’d say: He responded to Jeff Green’s negative defense, and the Thunder’s propensity to rely on the glasswork of a point guard. Players always want to succeed. I think we media schmoes try to reduce basketball to the psychological because it brings us closer–we hope. But we’re probably just creating mythology in the face of matchups and random chance. But here’s some psychology: Points dominate our NBA judgment.”

A home state tournament. I don’t love Oklahoma’s chances.

Jenni Carlson writing about how much she loves Rumble: “Maybe the greatest thing about Rumble is his ability to make one-on-one connections and make thousands go crazy. He does it all, remember, without saying a word. That takes some serious skill. Even though we might talk about Rumble as if he is a person, the real genius behind the mascot is the actual human being inside. The Thunder keeps his identity secret, but whoever he is, he is one talented dude. He turned a shaggy-haired, doe-eyed costume into the most loved sports figure around.”

A vote for KD for midseason MVP.

Steph Curry was great last night and I know what people are thinking. But I agree with Darnell Mayberry: “And really, we don’t know yet whether Harden is capable of scoring 20 points a night. But Harden has proved he can be a key contributor on a winning team. While Curry and Evans are putting up great numbers on two of the worst four teams in the Western Conference, Harden continues to chip in however and whenever possible as the Sixth Man on a 50-win team that is a top four seed in the conference.”

Did you see Justin Bieber has Mike Gundy as his ringtone?

Good stuff from Susan Bible of HoopsWorld on OKC’s defense: “One of the more intriguing stats (possibly deserving of an in-depth study itself) begs the question: why is the team unable to control their Opponent’s Field Goal Shooting in the first half of games (.508 average) as well as they do in second halves (.429)? And in overtime situations, it improves even further to .375.”

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Keith :@innocent
bystander
Jonny Quest is good too, but I’m almost disappointed now that it isn’t Murphy.

sorry!

but you can think of it as Captain Murphy if you like (the pic is so damn small it could be about anyone you wanted anyway)

@innocent bystander
Jonny Quest is good too, but I'm almost disappointed now that it isn't Murphy.

the little pic you get, though, isn't nearly as good as the original image

ok, didn't need the email link after all

alrighty, good to go and ready to dork it up with the best of 'em!

Keith :@innocent
bystander
Captain Murphy?

Race Bannon (from Jonny Quest)

8)

We got some increasing contracts comming up. Wonder if this team is satisfied with a 1st round knockout.

@innocent bystander
Captain Murphy?

@prye05
I don't think you can so easily overlook how much less of a market there would be next year for Collison. Collison received to very important economic benefits from his dead. First, money in the short term trumps money in the long term economically (due to inflation, possible salary loss in new CBA, and loss due to inability to play). Second, Collison was extended for 5 years. At his age, no other team would have given such a length of contract. He set himself up for steady income. Collison took a cheap contract, true, but the actual contract he received wasn't far off his league value.

Green would not be in the same situation. Green taking less money at 24 to play for a team on which he doesn't fit is very very different than a 30 year old taking a smart, long-term contract when other teams wouldn't offer such. Not to mention, Green is a starter while Collison would be a bench player going anywhere else. The difference in lost salary to play with guy he likes is much more significant.

ok, went and made an avatar

I'm now officially a dork

(always was one -- but now it's official)

You know what i love? If KD ever catches fire for a stretch, we're still in shouting distance of the 2 seed. And we all know he probably will..

prye05 :@CrowThis is true. But this team also seems to like playing together and some members have started by taking contracts that reflect that, and that trend could continue this year with Green (he might like playing with this team more than getting a big pay day) much like Collison did. Hopefully, that’s the case but we won’t know until it happens.

if theyre smart and want to win a championship with someone who won't f them over they will

@Crow
This is true. But this team also seems to like playing together and some members have started by taking contracts that reflect that, and that trend could continue this year with Green (he might like playing with this team more than getting a big pay day) much like Collison did. Hopefully, that's the case but we won't know until it happens.

@Crow

I should have said money (in thousands) next year / usage point.

Spending alone isn't everything or enough but how high the Thunder go and for how long will be significantly impacted by how much they are willing to spend and for how long.

Obviously Thabo and Nick are being paid for defense not offensive usage. Team salary will likely rise a lot when more rookie contracts are paid market rate. Unless some of them are shed and replaced with more rookie contracts or cheap vets.

Usage point against money (in thousands) next year:

Durant 433
Thabo 366
Collison 341
Harden 262
Westbrook 162
Maynor 87
Ibaka 86

At this year's ratios

Krstic 353
Green 233

@prye05

Crow is using salary per minute info from the entire league, not just the Thunder.

Right now the Thunder are spending about 12% on PGs, 38% on wings and 50% on bigs.

Next season there will be a big shift toward wings to cover Durant's new salary. Decisions with the bigs obviously with affect the outcome too. Westbrook's next contract will hit the PG allocation in 1-2 more seasons.

@Crow
But with Westbrook getting a raise and Kristic, Mo Pete, Durant, and Collison's contracts all being different, the team's spending will change dramatically next year. I wonder if you ran Usage against money next year what it would look like.

@prye05

Just this season.

On average teams spend 16% on PGs, 41% on wings and 43% on bigs.

@Crow
Did your numbers take into account the average salary a person is paid or just this years money? Because Durant has a huge contract coming, and Collison is set to lower his contract by a lot, which in a small sample size would change the average price per position by a lot.

@Keith

As you suggest, availability of talent and impact will vary by position and not easy to totally separate.

@Keith

You might be right about Brooks/Harden. I don't think the problem is all Brooks though - he was as upset as we were when he couldn't get Harden to stop hesitating. He isn't doing him any favors by playing Sef ahead of him though.

But early in James career, you could see him running the high pick and roll over and over and over again, then he went away from it, and now you are seeing it more. It just makes it look to me like the staff have a good idea of what they want from James, and are just waiting for him to finally get there.

Seems to me like the staff isn't fully willing to sacrifice wins for development like they were Russ' first two years when they had nothing to lose. I almost wish they'd go back to that and just let James and Ibaka get all the minutes they can stand and force that development to go ahead and happen.

One thing to remember though, Brooks played with Olajuwon and Cheeks played with Dr J, Moses Malone and Barkley. Those two guys know better than most how to get post players involved. Now it's just a matter of getting them one to use.

If you pay huge at PG, you better be sure it is worth it to the team's +/-.

PF is the most highly paid and it may be considered the most important position or the hardest to get elite or even good level talent and hence bid up.

@Keith
You're right they get rid of Redd's 18mil contract after this year, so really they aren't that bad off financially. Bogut is on a very friendly contract in terms of contract players, so he's not coming cheap. Plus for as bad as they've been this year they're only 5 games back which isn't an impossible gap especially since playing .500 ball makes you the 7 seed in the East. So Bogut probably isn't going anywhere unless they're really dumb.

Varajo is out for the season, and it didn't help that he took a month to rest before he got surgery so he's at least 3 or 4 months away and that's not including getting into game shape.

@Crow
Now the question is whether that shows which positions are worth more individually, or just which positions have the highest concentration of talent and thus high contracts?

100% agree with the Rumble article. Seriously, I've seen lots of pro and college mascots, and Rumble really has no peer. He is hilarious, athletic, talented, and the things he conveys just through his actions and body language is just amazing.

True story: I asked my 3 year old nephew who his favorite Thunder player was the other day, and he said Rumble. :)

Mark! :
I’d be curious to see what the average salary per minute played by position is in the league.

This isn't perfect as it is based on main positions, but average salary per minute played by position (rounded):

PG 2700
SG 3300
SF 3600
PF 4000
C 3100

Yes that is salary per minute.

For 32 minutes and 82 games it would be

PG 7.1 mil
SG 8.6
SF 9.4
PF 10.6
C 8.1

@Daniel
Why would Milwaukee want Jennings and Curry over Jennings and Bogut? Not saying it wouldn't happen, just that it doesn't make sense.

@andrew
See, even in that case I don't think it works. Milwaukee is in line to have significant cap space by next year even with their bad contracts. Dumping Bogut to get rid of a bad contract only sets them back further. No team will be able to take on all their dumb decisions (especially with Bogut's contract included), and losing him takes away essentially 50% of their entire chance to win.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I know that Golden State is a possible trade partner with Milwaukee for Bogut. I had heard they'd be willing to give up Steph Curry and pieces (Wright, Williams, etc) for Bogut. James and Jeff are good trade pieces, but I don't know how we could top that.

Starting Harden is only a piece of the problems this team has. Not the answer.

@Keith

I would love a Bogut and Salmons on this team, but again don't see it happening though I do think (as do many members of the media as well) that we have the best array of picks/talent/etc. to make a big trade. Varejao is a realistic option and one that might be able to help come playoff times depending upon how quick he recovers.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I don't know what teams can legitimately put together a better package than us without giving up their own star(s), so I wouldn't say we have no chance if someone elite is on the block.

By the way, though we did seem to be talking around each other a bit with Afflalo and Harden, I think you caught one of my points with the Brooks thing. While Harden is a better fit in an ideal use of him, I have no faith that Brooks will ever utilize Harden's full skillset.

@Keith
Nobody wants Maggette/Gooden/Salmons and their bad contracts. If Milwaukee realizes its enormous blunders of the summer and looks to shed some of their bad contracts, they may have to include Bogut to get any offers.

I agree though, Varajao is most realistic trade option, and one I would be more than happy with.

Bogut would be even better than Varejao, but I just don't see how the Bucks trade away their best player and overall #1 draft pick. That's not the guy you trade away when you want to build. You build around that guy. And if Bogut were seriously on the market, we wouldn't be the team that would get him.

That sounds pessimistic, but I don't think we're in the position to bring in a guy like Bogut.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I've echoed that sentiment as well. It's the reason I'm not sold that personnel should take priority over coaching/systematic improvement. There's actually not much history at all to say Brooks would know how to use a big man, even if we had one. Who's to say he doesn't try to turn Nene/Gasol into 18 foot jump shooters? Who's to say he doesn't stick an upgraded big man in the corner to launch ill-advised threes? We don't have a single post player on this roster. Even guys who could have been developed into post players (Ibaka) end up being shooters.

@andrew@kfmsooner

If Bogut is available, he would make a ton of sense, as much as anyone else we've thrown around. But, like other names mentioned (Love for example), there just doesn't seem to be any legitimate reason for his current team to let him go.

@kfmsooner
To put it in perspective, a severely underachieving Lamar Odom (who has no excuses for not being an all star even once by now) put up stats of 17-10-4 at age 24 (Green's age). For us, that's perhaps the absolute best case scenario for Jeff Green, and it's most likely not going to happen.

@andrew
Bogut would be awesome. I wish he were available.

I just want some type of trade for a big man for the deadline. If he is of the Landry caliber, thats fine.

Chugging towards the playoffs with no roster changes would be/is painful.

@andrew
it is brooks, dont underestimate his abilities to screw stuff up.

@TaoMaas
One of my all-time pet peeves. Jeff Green will never be Lamar Odom. Odom's skill set is so far beyong Green it shouldn't be discussed. That's like comparing Serge to Boozer or Maynor to Andre Miller. Just because the play the same position doesn't mean they do the same things.

I am warming to some type of Bogut trade. No way Brooks could screw the usage of him up, right?

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@andrew

I don’t even know how to respond to trade ideas anymore. If we had big al on the team, who’s to say we’d even use him properly? And as good a defensive team as we were last year, we’re that bad this year, and I can’t see big al helping us get better defensively.
So I don’t know if he would help us or hurt us at this point.
The one guy I keep hanging onto for a trade is Varejao. I think we could get him in the offseason. I think he’s the only realistic target.

You know, Jeff Green would be a significant upgrade over Antawn Jamison. I would bet Cleveland would be interested in doing a deal to acquire Green and they are the definition of rebuilding mode right now so maybe it could yet happen.

Varejao would be awesome.

@andrew

I don't even know how to respond to trade ideas anymore. If we had big al on the team, who's to say we'd even use him properly? And as good a defensive team as we were last year, we're that bad this year, and I can't see big al helping us get better defensively.

So I don't know if he would help us or hurt us at this point.

The one guy I keep hanging onto for a trade is Varejao. I think we could get him in the offseason. I think he's the only realistic target.

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