Daily Thunder.com

in last sentence should be ...

2 year lineup Adjusted +/- would help show that "a little better, probably, on balance."

basketballue.com has Adjusted +/- for lineups here
http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.php?team=OKC&year=2010-2011
but the estimated errors are high to very high so use with a lot of caution and restraint. You can guess that the very best rated lineups are more likely good than bad and the very worst rated are more likely bad than good but not much more precision than that unfortunately given small sample sizes.

In some cases with the very biggest minute lineups you can make a bit stronger judgments. With the Thunder's starting traditional lineup the estimate is that is neutral on Adjusted +/- but given the possibility of error in the estimate it could be a little better or worse. It was that way last season too, strengthening the case that it is neutral. 2 year lineup Adjusted +/- would help show that.

Ibaka/Collison/KD/RW/Any 2 guard lineup is very rarely used this season. No lineup over 11 minutes for the season. Usually Ibaka/Collison has been done with Maynor.
Last season there was a lot more Ibaka/Collison/RW and it was usually very good.

Ibaka/Collison in general (with anyone else) this season has been often been strong on rebounding and defense using information at basketballue.com but not as strong or as often as last season, perhaps because they are not with Westbrook as often. The pair in general has been used a bit more per game than last season but it is only good on average (+3 per 48 minutes) this season instead of great (+8 per minutes) last season. It is still a good pairing but better with Westbrook.

I'm not real well versed in advanced stats, is there somewhere we can find an adjusted plus minus for entire lineups. If there is I bet a c-note that the Ibaka/Collison/KD/RW/Any 2 guard lineup is significantly higher in rebounding and post defense versus any lineup with Green. Stat gurus can you confirm or disprove that assertion?

@Keith

I dunno, man. Green was excellent in the first half. I admitted as much in the game thread as it was happening. The fast pace and Miami's lack of defense really made him shine, just like when we play the Warriors or Nets or those types of teams Green plays well against.

Green was outmatched in the fourth quarter from the opening whistle, though. Miami had four offense rebounds in the first three minutes. Everyone saw where this game was going, except Brooks.

@justin
You've always harped on Brooks for not making substitutions based on the game, and being too staunchly committed to pre-determined lines. Green was our best rebounder this game. He was the best per minute, not just that he played a ton. Ibaka had ZERO rebounds in his 9 minutes. Zero.

There's reason to say Ibaka is a better rebounder overall, but there is very little evidence to suggest Ibaka would have been any better than Green for just today, for just that play.

@Keith

Keith, normally I'm in agreement with you, but I find it difficult to accept that Ibaka / Collison in the game wouldn't have sealed it. The defense was good, Green wasn't doing much because fourth quarter is KD / RW ball hog time. Ibaka is a better rebounder than Green, even if he isn't the best in the league at boxing out.

I think you might have things backwards, though. Green's missed rebound came with the Thunder winning by one point. Collison's missed rebound on the FT's came with the Thunder down three for a last second shot. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.

@James Church
Ibaka had zero rebounds in the 9 minutes he played.

@James Church
What about the offensive board right before that which led to a wide open three that WON THE GAME? I can say, with much better than 50% odds, that we would have missed a tying three even if Green had secured that rebound. Durant had gone ice cold after the half, had just missed a much closer tying shot before the free throws, and no one else on the team was going to take that shot. Not to mention, our percentages on game ending shots is very low overall.

How about we theorize what would have happened if Ibaka was in for Collison (secure that rebound and we would very likely won with free throws)? How about we theorize what would have happened if we weren't one of the worst defensive rebounding frontcourts in the league? We can blame Jeff if we want, but it's not the first time we lost because of offensive boards, and it won't be the last. In fact, rebounding will always be an issue (even with Ibaka, who doesn't really box out either) until we make serious upgrades in the front line.

...How about we just theorize what would happen if Ibaka was chilling in there for that last rebound with 20 seconds left. I think we all agree Jeff Green didn't do anything, and it is probably safe to say Miller would have found the task of getting an offensive rebound from the middle of the god damn key considerably more difficult. Argh.

I sadly was not able to watch the game (a travesty I know), but this has bothered me for this whole stretch of close games. Scott Brooks is one of the few NBA coaches I've ever seen that in late game situations, barely does offense for defense substitutions. You've got a fearsome inside force, whether focused or not, sitting on the bench while the weakest rebounder (by position) on the team gives up an essentially game losing rebound. Yes, if we put Ibaka in for a larger part of the fourth quarter and he plays bad, maybe we give up some cheap fouls, and-1's, and lose, but when it's down to the last couple minutes, it's too easy to sub in and out based on strengths and weaknesses not to.

@justin
Rebounding is a player problem. Brooks can't just coach Green up being taller/longer. He can't suddenly turn back time on Krstic's knees. Even Ibaka, whom was raw coming in, has the onus more on him than Brooks. If you are a big man expected to defend and rebound, the head coach shouldn't need to focus on you just to get you to box out.

The defense I lay primarily at the feet of the coaching. This system worked when the players actually knew where to be and were motivated to give full effort. Same players, same scheme. If the players don't know where to be (and they don't) and are never much motivated (and they aren't), it's up to the coaches to give that information and motivation.

The offense I actually place equal blame on coaching and players. When the players are all moving, there seems to be a real purpose to things. We score easy and find open men - that's at least good preparation somewhere. But the longer the game goes, the less Russ and KD share, the less the offense as a whole moves or screens, the less we get anywhere. That fall off is on the players, specifically KD and Russ, both as our primary scorers and leaders. But the lack of any remedy is on the coaches.

Heat did get one... KD to a shot after Wade went crying to a ref.

Miami was crying alot. They T'd up Russ. Heat should have got one

I have half-season tickets and there have been many games that I walked away mad that I paid money to watch the Thunder play half-hearted, sloppy b-ball. Today, they made mistakes and could have won, but I think they played their hearts out and it was fun to be there.

I was great to see KD and Lebron head-to-head. I thought it was a draw and KD's defense on him was excellent.

When he's healthy, Wade is best guard in the league - no contest in my mind. Russ gave up trying to go to the rim against him.

I hate that most teams coming in here complain about virtually every call. What happened to the policy to T up the winers?

The guys seem frustrated. It's been a rough couple of weeks with all these close games right in a row.

I really want to know what the deal is with Ibaka, too.

@Keith

More of coaching problems or player problems? Seems Brooks really has lost the team this season compared to last.

I now have had several hours since the loss, and here are my thoughts: this game is a microcosm of our season/team.

When we are winning, when we are feeling confident, there is great movement and the offense looks unstoppable. As the game tightens up and players get even a little bit tired, the offense takes a nosedive. Check out the number of cutters and crisp passes are made in the first quarter, then watch how many easy passes are completely overlooked in the second half. By the fourth quarter, guys stopped moving without the ball, because they knew KD and Russ weren't in a passing mood anymore. More importantly, look how all that non-passing murders even our scorers' chances. How many non-free throws did KD hit in the second half? 2? Out of 10 shots or so? KD and Russ take a lot of defensive attention from their teammates, but they seem completely oblivious to the fact that sharing the ball keeps the defense honest and off of them as well.

The defense was able to tighten up some (and with some help from the refs), but overall was not acceptable. I understand that the Heat have 3 really high quality scorers, but the way we gave up open looks to the scrubs and easy passing lanes was just sad.

Our rebounding was adequate until we needed a rebound. And that's just how it has always been. Whether it's a matter of bad rotations (though Collison at least was out there), or just no effort (no one could keep a free throw rebound away from Mike Miller? Really?), it didn't matter. We gave away a game we had miraculously pulled out at the end because our team, as a whole, does not play fundamental basketball, and it gets worse and worse as the pressure mounts.

KD and RWs 17-49 lost the game. Nenad and Collison 4 rebounds lost the game. Brooks lost the game way before Green did.

As one of the posters on the game thread who was down on Green at the end of this one, I'd just like to clarify that I conceded Green had a decent game and, in fact, really made some timely plays.

However, with the game on the line and the team giving up too many second chances, I just don't see how you can justify keeping your best rebounder on the bench..... especially for that last foul shot!!!

That's all. I don't hate Green. I think he has value to the team. I just wish he blocked out more often and really really wish Brooks would recognize his favorite players' shortcomings.

Also, to change subject a little here, I'm really sick of seeing how this team oftentimes simply "wastes" possessions. It's apparent that we don't fully value some possessions, and this results in a lot of small mistakes. Some examples from tonight, aside from allowing offensive rebounds, include Russell/Kevin taking hero-mode shots either in transition or early in the half court set, James stealing the ball from Wade and getting it stolen right back because he wasn't careful, and Jeff passing the ball directly to Wade on a 3-on-1 fast break. We have enough talent and firepower to win against the weak and mediocre teams in this league despite this, but against the elite or contending teams, these small mistakes and miscues often catch up to us.

Why the F can't we can't an F'in rebound off of a MISSED FREE THROW???????????????? THREE TIMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last year we couldn't secure a rebound against Pau Gasol and that ended our season. This year, Bosh gets a similar tip-in with 2:57 left, then F'in Mike Miller gets a rebound over everybody with 20 seconds left to set-up the game winner.

This loss is aggravating, if only because we had the exact same problem last year and it obviously hasn't been corrected.

By the way, thanks to the following players for their outstanding contributions:

Maynor: 0 pts
Ibaka: 0 pts
Krstic: 2 pts
Harden: 5 pts

@shahir
One of the main knocks on Green is that he doesn't give full effort, or that he sometimes 'zones out' on plays. Cook doesn't play enough for me to comment too much about him, but it didn't look like he was exactly Mr. DPOY out there either.

or totally losing his man on defense - or the boards ...

lets be honest - ibaka & harden, both of whom i am very fond of, are not always attentive throughout entire possessions.

Also, I think Brooks may scare Harden away from OKC after his rookie contract. The leash he has on Harden is just crazy and it has to be bothering Harden.

I would just like the fans who say "IF" to consider these few things - & this is no endorsement or criticism of any player/fan ::

IF ibaka plays more minutes, THEN you have more likelihood of soft fouls, and-1s, or totally losing his man on defense ... (the same holds true for harden by the way!) ...

it is often forgotten that you may gain something with a change, but also lose a few things (or gain some undesirable things!) ...

with that said, i wish they'd improve their effort, attention to detail, offensive design & efficiency, & shot selection -- regardless of who's on the floor!

I wasn't really harping on Green having a terrible game, I was most frustrated with him not boxing out Mike Miller. I understand that Jeff Green is at a disadvantage against most teams and won't always get rebounds; he's a poor rebounder for his position and there's not much he can do to change that. But when his assignment is Mike Miller, I mean come on. And like another commenter said, we gave up offensive rebounds on free throw attempts.

If Ibaka had played for Green in that fourth quarter I think the Thunder win, no question.

@Royce Young
I think there's a danger in adjusting your criteria after the fact to determine how a player performed. If I said to you before the game that you could play a guy that isn't Green 44 minutes at power forward tonight, and you would be guaranteed that player would score 23 points on 21 shots and and get 11 rebounds while giving up 20 points on 12 shots, 3 offensive rebounds, and 7 rebounds total to Chris Bosh would you really say "That sounds like an excellent line, let's do it!" to me?

@justin
Hey I agree on Ibaka. I was totally confused. I thought he should've been in late. Then I asked Brooks about it after the game and he said Ibaka wasn't focused and that's why he sat. I don't know how to argue with that.

Plus, Green did good enough for the Thunder to win, so it wasn't something to really harp on, I thought.

@Royce Young

I'm not afraid to say when Jeff Green has a good game. Most of what hurt us, in relation to Green, isn't even his fault. He should not have been on the court late in this game when it slowed down and they had to get rebounds. I'm much more frustrated with Brooks' insistence on playing Jeff Green at PF in every situation regardless of context. Miami shouldn't be getting offensive rebounds, rebounding is a weakness of theirs. Is that ALL Jeff Green's fault? Of course not, but do you think if Ibaka was in with Collison for most of the fourth quarter we give up all those second chance opportunities?

I noted in the game thread at half time that Green was having one of his best games of the season, if not the best. IMO, a lot of that was a function of the pace of the game, which benefited his style. When the game slowed down, though, his weaknesses cropped up, he was missing shots like everyone else, and I don't think he really contributed much. He didn't have a BAD game, but I wouldn't say he was 'excellent' since he was invisible when it mattered most...

@Royce Young
They missed three free throw rebounds in the fourth quarter with Green in the game. Three! The easiest rebound in the game and the Thunder missed three of them. At that point you can't just say "if the ball bounced the right way" we would have won. This became a systemic problem with Green in the game late.

@lemur123
On Harden in with the starting five, that's a pretty small sample size so plus/minus isn't always great there.

It just seems like the last two games he's had issues fitting in with KD and Russ. I don't think it's a long-term problem, just something lately.

I have to agree with Royce on this one, Green definitely had a good game. I'll take a performance like that out of him any day.
I don't understand Brooks' problem with Harden and Ibaka. If he gives Cook Harden's playing time, Presti is going to have to step in and say something. As for not playing Ibaka because he wasn't prepared to play. Was Brooks even watching Krstic out there? There was little to no effort by him. Even if Ibaka wasn't "focused," he easily could have done a better job then Krstic
Great post btw Royce

Thunder lost the game way before the end

Bill Russell (and probably even Serge Ibaka) wouldn't have let Mike Miller beat him on the boards, and I wouldn't be fawning over 23 on 21 even if it was Michael Jordan we were talking about. That last rebound goes to effort, and he did not work extremely hard on that play.

@justin

Green doesn't shoot 20 times a game much. He did tonight. It's not just about the 23-11, it's about him being a big part of OKC hanging in there. He played a good game. I don't see why this is hard to admit.

Like I said, if Wade's rebound bounces long and ends up in Westbrook's hands and OKC ices this thing late, it would still be about how the Thunder could've beat one of the best teams in the league "better".

I've always stuck with the fact Green is a valuable player, but one that's definitely out of position and someone that probably needs a role adjustment. But I'm not afraid to say when he had a good game.

Green had a solid game and became the fall guy. When Wades jumper got a good bounce, miller pushed off, kd jumped away from the ball guarding nobody + Lebron and House were wide open.

I am not an NBA expert nor do I claim to be, however I have an opinion. Rebounds, seems the Thunder had 1 more than the Heat, so that wasn't the major factor. Offensive rebounds, seems the Thunder had 2 more than the Heat, so that wasn't the major factor. I think the major factor is that the Thunder took 9 more shots and made 5 less than the Heat. And if I heard right, the Thunder and Heat both had the same "in the paint" points. The results are the Heat hit jumpers that the Thunder missed. Bottom line, KD, RW and JG combine for 24-63 shooting for 38%. LJ, CB and DW combine for 28-49 for 57%. If our guys just combine for 43% the Thunder win. Of course thats just my opinion, unlike the rest of you guys, I may be wrong.

@Royce Young

Ibaka doesn't shoot 20+ times a game. Ibaka has games as good or better than the game Jeff Green just had with regularity. 23 points and 11 rebounds sounds very impressive, until you realize that it's still a lower per minute rebound mark than Ibaka's, and 23 points on 20 shot attempts is much lower efficiency than Serge. Green had a great first half and was a big part of the offensive explosion early. But I don't think this game was anything special for him. Ibaka would have certainly done better when the game got slow late.

@Royce Young
Gotta remember who the commenters are Royce. Green will never do anything right on this message board

I like Scott Brooks and usually approve of a lot of moves he makes, but the fact that he only played Ibaka only played 9 minutes in this game is ridiculous. We desperately needed his presence inside whether he was focused or not which I don't know how you couldn't be focused in on this game. Speaking of focused in, Krstic straight up looked asleep when he was in today. He didn't even look like he wanted to be on the court! Tough loss though, just a couple of rebounds and a few missed free throws away from a different story.

Also just a side note, after I got home from the game, I started watching the game on my DVR. Does it not bother the hell out of anyone else that ESPN continuously calls us "Oklahoma" not "Oklahoma City"? I know this is just a little thing and not a huge deal, but what the hell, you don't here them saying "The Florida Heat".

@Royce Young
And KD and Russ had good nights

I don't see how anyone can say Jeff Green didn't play really well. It's fine to not like him, but give him credit when it's due.

I watched the game like anyone else and I thought he played well. Defending Bosh well in the post, made some big offensive plays and worked extremely hard.

I feel like Ibaka had the same night Green did, people would be fawning over him like he was Bill Russell.

justin :
My hope is that Sam Presti understands what is happening with this team.

This is my big hope too. I'm okay with patience, but with so little action recently it can be hard to tell if he's waiting to address the issue of the team or is simply unaware of them.

Feel like the Thunder and Miami mirrored each other a lot in this game, for good and bad. Both teams coasted on defense in the first half and were on fire offensively. Both tightened the screws on the defense in the second and relied on out-talenting the other team on offense. The strategy is more or less par for the course for both teams this season.

Jesus, Miami's defense is suffocating when they want it to be. Wade especially was fantastic in locking down Westbrook.

@lemur123
I mean, its not like we're getting blown out by all the top teams in the league? I'm worried we're not beating them more often, but its not like we're not competing? We lost to Miami, with the big 3 all playing, by 5 and should have won. How is that not competing with the best?

It was really strange for me to be at a game where so many people were openly rooting for the visitors. They didn't say anthing while they were down, even when the Heat would make a shot. Once their team got up 4-5 though then they wanted to let you hear it. It was sort of a joke.

@gr8ball83
Ok then. The Thunder still got a fortunate matchup against a tired Celtics team. The win is still no more an indication of the Thunder's capacity to compete against the best in the league.

gr8ball83 :@lemur123So which is more likely, that they didn’t try or that they were tired from the night before? I’m gonna go with tired…

Are we talking a game or other adult activities, the night before??

@gr8ball83
Finally, by that logic, the Celtics would have a much worse record. If all those teams can beat them when the Celtics are trying there hardest to win, why can't other, better teams?