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Wednesday Bolts – 12.1.10

Russell Westbrook has jumped to No. 2 in ESPN’s MVP watch: “In September, when Kevin Durant was leading Team USA to the gold at the FIBA World Championship, who’d have thought KD would be the second-best player in OKC?”

John Hollinger on Westbrook: “The irony is that the team is winning right now precisely because of Westbrook’s youthful, attack-now impatience (deftly broken down here by our Jackie MacMullan). He makes mistakes because of his aggression, but his constant push has kept opponents on their heels, especially late in games, and allowed the Thunder to overcome a surprisingly rough start from Durant. That may not be enough to earn an MVP trophy, especially when other candidates are likely to own much gaudier win totals and compare more favorably with people’s preseason expectations. But Westbrook’s ascension to superstardom has allowed Oklahoma City to weather Durant’s early shooting slump — not to mention a host of lesser ills — far better than anyone would have expected.”

The new Thunder Shop opens today. It’s bigger, has more stuff and the store’s hours are expanded. Also, spend $100 today and you can get a free ticket to an upcoming game. Spend $25 and you get free parking under the Cox Center for a game.

At CBS, Westbrook, Durant and Collison all get some love.

Also, I wrote on Westbrook’s emergence.

Power rankings from CBS: “First-month assessment: Looking for a team on the rise? Seven of the club’s first nine December foes failed to make the playoffs last season, and the eighth (Cavs) doesn’t count.”

Mike Prada of SBN says Westbrook is OKC’s best player right now: “The scary thing is that Westbrook can still get better. He still isn’t great at getting the ball to his teammates in good scoring spots, particularly in isolation situations. You can’t really blame Westbrook too much for the Thunder’s third-quarter woes – the rest of their team just didn’t hit shots or move well off the ball — but Westbrook still could have been better in setting those guys up. He also doesn’t need to shoot so many pull-up jumpers, because teams aren’t giving him that shot consistently this year. Once he makes those improvements: watch out.”

Scott Brooks is sticking with KD in clutch situations: “If the Thunder has a chance to win tonight’s game at New Jersey on the final possession, there’s no mystery who is supposed to get the ball. Despite his shocking lack of success in converting buzzer-beaters, Kevin Durant is the man and remains the man in the eyes of Thunder coach Scott Brooks. “I believe in him,” Brooks said. “I’m still going to go with him, so it’s not going to surprise the other 29 coaches in the league. The next time that happens, Kevin’s probably going to take the shot.”

Outside the NBA on Westbrook: “We’re in the presence of something glorious here. Westbrook’s play not only shows a confidence in his ability, but also a control over the game that we haven’t seen in prior years. He’s hitting his man more often on cuts, and he’s finishing around the rim at a higher rate. His motions are still full of visceral force, but Westbrook’s unstoppable drives always serve a purpose now, something we couldn’t say last season. He’s been handed the responsibility of managing the floor since day one. Now we’re seeing a career built on promise begin to bear fruit.”

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@f5alcon

Yes.

Having more and precise data about the location of his early shots and whether they are directly in transition or just early and whether they are contested or not would help sort it out even more.

If he is so good shooting early maybe you want him a bit more as a runner than a rebounder but then you have to cover the boards more with somebody else. It could be a true center beside him. But I guess it could be extra effort on the boards from Westbrook, Durant and Thabo like now most of the time as well.

It might be worth more plays or at least serious looks from Russell for Ibaka coming off some early screens or pick n roll action.

@Crow
a lot of ibakas shots are uncontested im sure that affects when he takes the shot early, if he is open he shoots.

Probably mostly noise on this especially but Ibaka has fallen off sharply on FG% for end of shot clock shots in general but his end of game clutchness went the other way and has improved so far.

Ibaka in first 10 seconds of the shot clock:

eFG% of 75% on 44% of his total attempts. Wow.

Up big from a nice enough 56% eFG% last season. Getting slightly less shots during that portion of the clock. 1%pt less, but with that efficiency do you go it more and can you get more from it? Not sure how much offhand is in transition vs early look action - jumpers or inside. But the team could drill down to it, if they worked at it.

Harden getting less early shots but hitting those better. He has dropped off in the middle of the shot clock. No change at the end of the shot clock for him.

Might be mostly noise rather than something you can really take advantage of... but worth looking at more and seeing how much you can do to take advantage of good trends or minimize the cost of bad trends.

Krstic's FG% in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock is way down from last season. Early to make anything definitive of it but perhaps some of those shots are rushed out of fear of the ball not returning to him given others going for more shots? His FG% is off in general across all part of the shot clock especially at the end of it so he has individual shooting issues too, on top of the competition to get shots.

Compared to last season, Krstic is shooting a lot more of his shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Green modestly more. Durant and Westbrook actually getting smaller % of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock but putting up more total shots. Probably not "rational" / "good" from a team perspective. Green going for his shot has been noticed but hadn't heard mention of what was happening with Krstic or overall on the team on this aspect of the game.

@qrex
i am not afraid of the lakers, i am afraid of how brooks will play the lakers.

I thought this was kinda intersting.

http://www.foxsportssouthwest.com/12/01/10/The-Wea...

"In 1991-92, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, arguably the greatest duo of all time, averaged a combined 52.5, their highest scoring total.

Jordan topped 40 points nine times that season, while Pippen did it just once, on Feb 28, 1992.

Durant has yet to do it this season, but 40-point efforts are coming, considering he managed eight of them last year at age 21.

But Westbrook has one already with plenty more left in the tank."

@f5alcon
How can we hope to win a round in the playoffs and still be afraid of the other teams? I would be less intimidated facing the Lakers in a 3-6 series than I was for last year's 1-8 series.

RW will expose Farmar tonight. 30 & 10 for my boy Russ =)

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/top_plays/2010/1...

These 10 dunks would look awesome on some player's career highlights, and there are even fewer players who could amass these 10 in a single season, yet Blake did all of this in his first full month as a rookie.

Absolutely amazing.

@Sammy
that would be our luck, we improve our seed but still get stuck playing the lakers where gasol destroys jeff green.

@Grolgar
I was at the game where Thabo missed the 3 at the buzzer it was against the Spurs (3/22/10) and KD had 45 points. Harden was injured at the time otherwise he probably would have inbounded.

From the nba.com recap:
The Thunder got the ball in to Durant but he was double-teamed up against the sideline and had to pass the ball out to Thabo Sefolosha.

"We wanted anyone but Kevin to take the last shot," said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. "He caught the ball and we made him kick it out to someone else."

Ha I knew you'd like Jazzketball Royce. I had to wait all morning for you to post the Bolts!

Ha. Just noticed that Hollinger's playoff odds now have us at the 6 seed playing... the Lakers in the 3rd seed.

@andrew

No, it's actually D-Rose

I am going to start the MVP chant at the games - when I go - when Westbrook is shooting free throws. I'm all for Green taking the last shot - he has proven himself until he does otherwise give him the ball.

@dream catcher

We're not contending now? Shoot!

Steve Kerr thinks we are a year away from contending.

Other Thomas :@andrew

Him and Blake Griffin.

-facepalm- It is Griffin no doubt.

@Emile Avanessian
thanks for linking your write-up. RW's shots at the rim and conversion rate are insane.

@andrew

Him and Blake Griffin.

I really doubt Mullens gets minutes. I think Brooks will still go with White and Collison. The only ways Mullens gets minutes is if Brooks needs some height on Lopez OR if there is blow out.

Interested to see Green playing SF and glad to have Ibaka back at the 4!

Is Westbrook the most exciting player in the league right now? I say yes.

I was kinda hoping that now that it's December, KD would go off for 6/8 from 3 and 15/21 from the field..

No KD, but with Kristic means we may get a favorable lineup for ibaka and green tonight (like, they get to play their actual positions).

With Harris out that means Farmar should start. Bad luck for NJ. Don't they know how hard Westbrook plays against former UCLA Bruins.

In my fantasy world, Brooks will continue running the end of game Durant iso at the key right up until the play offs, when everybody KNOWS that's coming, only to feed a cutting Westbrook for the game winning dunk!

@Carl
Exactly. Iso KD above the arc = FAIL.

@EA
he is right NY way more fun to visit, and i lived there, though my complaint with living there is cost, he doesnt really have that problem.

@Mark!
they dont call it much anymore when he tries it.

@Ozark
well harris should be out for nets so doesnt really hurt to have durant out, but our starters missing games is starting to pileup, at least this gets ibaka back to starting

@MartzMimic
What plays?? It's almost always an iso and almost always fails. I say put the ball in Westbrooks hands. Certainly we can devise a two-man game where RW drives and either goes to the rim or kicks to KD rolling off a screen. Oh yeah, how about starting the play with more than five seconds left.

@Sammy
Would The West be better for a last (<2) second shot? That (outside shot or starting inside for a catch and shoot) doesn't seem to match his strengths. Less than 10? Give it to The West so he can show the defense where the seams are. But, on a last second shot, I'm thinking KD or Uncle Jeff.

Durant's facebook status "Went to Phillipe Chow for dinner with my Thunder bros last night. I'm a fan of the city. But just for road trips!!! So don't start that KD to the Knicks or Nets talk LOL"

@Ozark

I'd like to see that line up play. I really want to see how Green plays at his natural position. Plus Ibaka and Krstic tend to play well together when paired up.

Mayberry reporting Durant may well miss tonight with a sore knee, not likely serious.

Reports likely starting lineup :

Westy/Sefo/Green/Ibaka/Krstic

with White and Mullens quite possibly getting minutes

What happened to the rip move, btw? We rarely see it anymore.

It wasn't a game ender, but remember those 3 pt shots Green hit to ice the game at Boston last year? All that movement, nice screens.

What the hell happened to that? Can't we just call the same thing in the clutch?

From that Mayberry article:
With 0.5 seconds left in Game 6 of last year's first-round playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers, the in-bound pass was intended to go to Durant out front about 25 feet from the basket

Sigh. This is not surprising, but... Really, Brooks??? You're down by one, you have time enough for a touch catch and shoot, and the play you draw up is designed to get the ball to Durant 25 feet from the basket??? You stupid, stupid man.

Serge is getting the love from Susan Bible over at Hoopsworld - http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=18056

KD needs to stop being the anti-lebron and stick to his game. Y'know like knocking down big shots, rip moves, and nice D.

I don't have an issue with Durant taking the last shot; it's the stupid plays they run for him.

@andrew

I'm not sure if that was a designed play, but Thabo was the inbounder and they left him wide open so he got the pass back...

I can't believe the Spurs are 15-2 and 8-0 away from home. I definitely thought we would start to see a drop off from these old guys this year... Can they keep it up?

I hate when NBA commentators roll out the old shibboleth that you should always have your best player take the final shot. First, it doesn't seem work that well when everybody in the building knows what's going to happen and your best player isn't Michael Jordan. Second, the Fishers and Horrys and, let's face it, Greens have shown that role players can knock down clutch shots with the best of them. Third, once you've established that you're willing to let other players take game-winning shots, you can free some of the defensive pressure off your best player so that he can occasionally take such shots without have 5 hands in his face. Fourth, KD is a team player, smart, and mature. I think his ego could withstand allowing another player to take the game-winning shot once in a while.

What game was it last year that we ran a play for a game winning 3 pt attempt by thabo from the wing? That might have been Scotty's finest moment.

Wow! I was just beaten to the punch on this! I did an analysis this morning of the effectiveness of Westbrook's attacking the rim (FGA at the rim and FTA), with results that were extremely flattering to him as well. It's tough to put many PGs ahead of him these days (I still have DWill and CP3, but no one else) and there's aren't many more backcourt players period that I'd take over him. The guy's a beast! Gets to the rim whenever he wants, draws fouls, hit free throws and man can he finish!

http://is.gd/i3pYv

Russ can beat his man and get a solid 15-18 foot jump shot whenever he wants. This would seem to be a much better option than Durant dribbling at the 3 point line and chucking a fade away..

@Nax
Should we have taken Horford over Durant?