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Thunder at Raptors: Pregame Primer

vs.

OKC Thunder (13-6, 7-2 road) at Toronto Raptors (7-11, 5-4 home)

TV: FSOK (Cox 37, HD 722, Tulsa Cox 27, DirectTV 679, UVerse 754)
Stream: Click here
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 97.1 FM Tulsa)
Time: 6:00 CT

Offensive Rating: Thunder – 108.5 (10th), Raptors – 106.7 (15th)
Defensive Rating: Thunder – 108.2 (17th), Raptors – 108.3 (19th)
Pace: Thunder – 92.6 (16th), Raptors – 94.4 (7th)

View from the enemy: Raptors Republic

NEWS: KD is out again tonight with a sprained left knee.

The Thunder continue on to Toronto where they will again be without the services of Kevin Durant. And much like the New Jersey game, the Raptors aren’t some pushover that you should be able to walk by even without your best player. They’re playing tough and no doubt will see this as an opportunity to get a win over one of the West’s best.

Toronto coming in: The Raptors have won five of seven, but lost two of three. They recently played Wednesday, beating the Wizards at home.

THE MATCHUPS
If you’re Russell Westbrook, you’re basically salivating right now. You’re playing without KD so you’re going to be the man again tonight. Plus, you’ve got Jose Calderon guarding you. Calderon is a nice offensive point guard, but he’s slightly defensively challenged and doesn’t have the quicks to keep up with Westbrook. A major edge toward OKC there. Though Westbrook can’t try and overdo things. He’s got to just stay within himself otherwise he’ll get out of control and do more harm than good.

DeMar DeRozan is emerging as a legit scorer for the Raps, so Thabo will have his hands full guarding him. DeRozan is super athletic and prefers to get to the rim above all else, so Thabo’s going to try and force him to stay on the perimeter as much as possible.

Inside, the Raptors are decent, but were weakened by Reggie Evans’ injury. Andrea Bargnani is playing quality basketball and is always a threat to get hot with his mid-range jumper. So between him and Nenad Krstic, we’ll see two big men hovering outside of the paint. Amir Johnson plays the power forward spot, so it will be a long, athletic matchup between him and Serge Ibaka, who will likely start at the 4.

The Raptor bench has some firepower with Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza and Jerryd Bayless on it, so without KD, OKC is going to need some contribution from James Harden and Eric Maynor. Harden appeared to gather some confidence from the Nets game so hopefully that carries over.

The Raptors score in bunches and defend lightly. But they’re the type of group that can get rolling offensively and will be tough to slow down. The Thunder needs to set a defensive tone early and focus on getting stops before working the offensive end. Points shouldn’t be tough to come by tonight, but stops might be.

Tip at 6:00 CT. Go Thuuuun-da.

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@thatbehim
That's a valid argument and one that's been brought here on many occasions. Saying that Thabo is the third least efficient player in NBA history is not. Personally I tend to agree that if Thabo isn't continually moving without the basketball, making backdoor cuts and making the occassional hard drive to the hoop, then Harden should start.

@f5alcon
He is. Teams don't defend him. You're open all the time you should shoot decently. He can't hit 3's so his efficiency is around the basket. He's a good finisher I'll give him that. My problem is more that he has too big a role due to poor coaching than with him personally.

@Sammy
Well for someone playing 30+ minutes a game we need more proficiency. For the other team to more or less not have to pay you any mind offensively you need to be DPOY caliber...he's not. I'm not trying to bash him though this team has a lot more problems. If Thabo was a role player he'd be excellent, well it's not his fault he plays to much. Jeff Green gets criticized. He's actually a very underrated player. It's not his fault he has to bang with players much bigger than him. The coach's job is to put his players in the best position to succeed. Brooks has failed at this. This team would be so much better with Harden(for all his faults) starting and Ibaka starting and Green as a super 6th man.

@thatbehim
i never was trying to say that thabo was great on offense, just that he isnt as horrible as people think.

@thatbehim
It is evidence that he is not horribly inefficient, which is what Douglas was trying to argue. Efficiency and proficiency on offense are not the same thing.

@Sammy

Tell that to the people beating the drum on him having the 4th highest TS% on the team. Continuosly pointing to that to me is an insinuation that he is.

@thatbehim
I don't think anyone here would argue that Thabo is the fourth best offensive player on the team. His TS% his okay, but that's because he takes so few shots. The more you learn how to 'read' stats by taking them into context and realizing each specific statistic's deficiencies, the clearer and more accurate the story becomes. And, of course, the context of actually watching the games helps make that story clear as well.

Stats are a helpful tool not a bible to follow blindly. I trust what my eyes tell me watching every game more.

We only have 3 players who are remotely capable of making a decent percentage of shot while shooting a high volume. So saying Thabo has the 4th best TS on the team is not saying much. He's a good(although overrated)on the ball defender. His defensive awareness is terrible(knowing when do go over or under a screen etc).

shiki=4 seasons :
Did Anyone have info about DJ?

Brooks couldn't stomach DJ earning minutes (and keeping him from playing small ball) so he threw a banana peel onto the court.

Did Anyone have info about DJ?

@Douglas
So let me get this straight. You believe TS% is a bullshit stat. We ask why and explain it's just a stat that takes FG% and accounts for FTs and 3s, and your counterargument is that Thabo is the '3rd least efficient player in NBA history' and any stat that argues otherwise must be bullshit. Do I have that about right?

@Douglas
and yes i would like a better sg than thabo, and use thabo off the bench

@Douglas
TS% also doesn't claim Thabo is a good offensive player, only that he tends to score efficiently when he is asked to score. The stat is greatly influenced by the fact that Thabo is always wide open and rarely shoots. It's easy to be efficient (looking good on TS) when your primary scoring role is finishing wide open layups/dunks.

@Keith

That is weird and I lay it all at the feet of Brooks

@Keith

That's what frustrates me most. We've seen some nice individual improvements, but nothing but regression from a team standpoint.

@Douglas
Facts, facts, facts.

TS% has always liked Kevin Durant. He gets to the line, shoots well there, and makes threes.

The guy from the mavs is Wayne Winston, hes not an assistant coach, hes a front office stat consultant guy. His stat is Adj +/-. Durant was bad 2nd year at this stat and fantastic last year. Seriously man, get it together.

So Thunder needs at beginning of the year:
1) Strong player (third star)
2) Better offensive execution
3) Better shooting

Thunder needs after 20 games:
1) Defense
2) Better offensive execution
3) Better coaching in games
4) Strong post player (third star)
5) Better shooting

Weird, we didn't solve any of our problems and ended up with two more that jumped right into the top 3.

@Douglas

That was adjusted plus/minus not TS%.

@Douglas
no they wouldnt take him on A+/- not ts%

@f5alcon

I'll give him that, he knows his limits and doesn't shoot a lot. But wouldn't it be nice to have a starting SG who did shoot because he could shoot well?

@Keith

There is zero burden of proof on me to show TS% is a bullshit stat. TS% as a stat discredits itself by showing that thabo is anything but a horrible offensive player.

And if you recall, after KD's 2nd year, the TS% was the stat on which the whole argument was based saying he was a stat stuffing loser and why that assistant coach from the Mavs that season said he wouldn't take KD for free.

@Douglas
not the home games i am at those games.

and yeah thabo is bad on offense, but he doesnt shoot much and finishes around the rim pretty well. it isnt like he is shooting a lot.

@Douglas

f5alcon :@Douglas

efg% 3rd, ortg 4th. offensive win shares 5th.

You miss these ones dude? Where are your stats. The burden of proof is on you.

@Douglas
Really, everyone knows he's bad on offense, we've known that since day one. What the rest of the group are arguing is that he still has some value. He rebounds incredibly well, which matters on a team that has no big men. He defends rather well (All-Defense team last year), even our defense as a whole is a train wreck this year. That's not to say he's good, just that he can do some things well. For a guy who SHOULD be a bench player, that's ok.

Thabo isn't a good offensive player, but you can make that case without claiming TS% is 'bullshit'.

Douglas :@justin

Burden of proof is on you to lay out a case for why it is not a bullshit stat since you’re the one arguing in favor of it.
I’m listening.

Umm... I can't imagine how it can be 'bullshit'. Is FG% bullshit, too? all TS% does is take FG% and account for the two things that FG% misses: free throw shooting and three point shooting. Are 'points' bullshit, too?

@f5alcon

Again, do you REALLY need someone to post numbers in favor of the argument that Thabo is one of the worst offensive players in the league? You watch our games on television I assume?

@Douglas
Actually, burden of proof should be on you, since you made the first claim. But you are arguing the wrong thing by attacking stats in general. No one was arguing that Thabo is a bad offensive player. I think the team stats saying he's good are just a fluke, born from the fact that we have a bad offense, so even bad players can appear relatively strong in the right condition.

@Keith
yeah maybe that is the case.

@Douglas
i am saying the numbers dont back up your assertion that he is that horrible of a SG, should he be starting prob not, but he is a rotation player in the nba quality.

@Other Thomas

Antoine walker was a 20 ppg scorer once. Someone with the ability to average 20 ppg is worse than Thabo?

@justin

Burden of proof is on you to lay out a case for why it is not a bullshit stat since you're the one arguing in favor of it.

I'm listening.

@Douglas

Yes, because the truth is, he is just below average. Antoine Walker deserves his throne as waaaay below average.

Ron adams should be coach of year last season.

I know it's OKC, but there has to be some premier coaches out there willing to move here for the privilege of coaching KD and Russ. Mike Fratello, someone, anyone!

@Douglas

I don't care about Thabo, I'm wondering exactly why TS% is a 'bullshit stats'.

@Douglas
6 steals and 7 rebs tonight for thabo

@f5alcon

Are you honestly trying to argue that Thabo is anything short of a horrible offensive player?

@f5alcon
Not if the players are all tuning us out. That's kind of what it feels like. Adams/Brooks had them playing hard every night until KD became an All-Star and Russ destroyed the rookie/sophomore game. We might have to start considering that our guys just stopped getting motivated and listening to the coaches.

This is also why I want Brown so bad. Brown would hold our entire starting lineup out of games before he let a debacle like tonight happen.

At the very least why can't we hire an Xs and Os assistant?

@justin

In David Thorpe's last chat, he mentioned Scott Brooks as a great up and coming coach. I'm convinced he hasn't watched the Thunder this season.

@Douglas
efg% 3rd, ortg 4th. offensive win shares 5th.

@justin

Respectfully, Thabo is such an extreme case we need not nit pick any sort of intricate stats. The man is a historically bad offensive talent. Do we really need to evaluate anything other than game footage to know that? and as far as his defense goes it is severely overrated. SEVERELY.

@Keith
why wait til the summer we can hire somebody right now, half of us could probably coach the defense better.

Douglas :@f5alcon

TS% is a B.S. stat. Respectfully.

What stat do you prefer to measure scoring efficiency?

@Keith

Coach of the Year! He's good! He knows what he's doing!

@f5alcon

TS% is a B.S. stat. Respectfully.

justin :
A night after allowing Brook Lopez his first double double of the year, we give Andrea Bargnani his first also.

In related news, Brook Lopez with 1 rebound in 32 minutes of play tonight.

Trackbacks

  1. [...] Primer Bulb for Sale on [...]

  2. [...] “The Raptors,” said Royce Young of Daily Thunder, “aren’t some pushover that… and they impressed this fact on various Thunder backsides at Air Canada Centre, turning a seven-point halftime deficit into a nine-point lead in a mere twelve minutes. Radio guy Matt Pinto grumbled about some of the calls, or more precisely some of the non-calls, but even he’d concede that Toronto simply outplayed Oklahoma City tonight: they had more rebounds (42-34), more assists (29-22), a better shooting percentage (54.9-43.7), and where it matters most, more points (111-99). [...]