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Tuesday Bolts – 11.30.10

Kurt Helin of PBT: “One final thought: There was a lot of talk Monday about the Heat and how they are not meshing, how they seem to be standing around on offense, how there is no chemistry. How leadership from their big stars is lacking. Kevin Durant did not have a good scoring night Monday, but Durant is busting it, figuring out how he can help on the defense, taking a side role if that is best for the team. That, gentlemen is the opposite of Miami right now.”

Stein’s new batch of power rankings: “We’re down to two players averaging at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists: LeBron and Westbrook. Which means Durant, amazingly, wouldn’t even be voted the first-month MVP on his own team. Right?”

NBA.com’s rankings: “It doesn’t say here that Russell Westbrook is better than Kevin Durant. But it does say that Westbrook has played better than Durant this season. And, oh my, this is something KD could never do.”

Westbrook is in NBA.com’s MVP hunt: “Here again, as with the Lakers, Kevin Durant is the fellow on whom opponents primarily focus their defensive game plans. But Westbrook earned Western Conference player of the week honors through Sunday, then followed up with double-doubles as the Thunder went 1-1 vs. the Timberwolves and the Mavericks.”

Hornets 24/7: “[West] punished the hell out of Jeff Green all game long. 7 of his made shots were against Green. The problem was, with the game on the line, Green wasn’t guarding West. It was Kevin Durant, who is smarter, more athletic, and exactly the sort of player that has always given West problems – long and light on their feet. West’s biggest nemesis in the game is Lamar Odom. Durant isn’t that much different than him physically. So the Hornets force fed West five out of six possessions over a crucial four minutes from 5:00 to 1:00, and he got exactly no points. The score went from 81-75 in the Hornets favor to 81-88 against.”

Thabo and Serge have played a part in the NBA’s perfect month.

NBA Playbook looks closely at KD’s game-changing defense: “When you have a defensive strategy in place, the whole team needs to be on the same page, and this is a fantastic illustration of that. Durant knows that Ibaka and Westbrook are going to show hard as Paul comes off of the screen, and because he knows that, he knows that Okafor is going to be rolling uncovered to the basket. With Durant knowing all of this, he knows his job is to get over and protect the rim, and that is exactly what he does. Knowing what his teammates are doing and where he needs to be allows Durant to put himself in a position that lets his use his athletic ability to get the block.”

Hollinger’s finally have OKC moving up.

Hollinger was in the arena last night and had some thoughts, primarily on the Hornets though.

The Thunder likes NBA 2K11: “And according to Westbrook, everyone on the Thunder is loving getting to control Jordan in “NBA 2K11. ‘We’re all big into video games. Everyone on the team plays,’ he says. ‘We have tournaments sometimes on our off days. We’ll play ’2K’ all day and just hang out and chill.’ As for Kevin Durant being on the cover of ’2K’s’ competition, ‘NBA Elite,’ a game that has now been cancelled, all Westbrook can do is laugh. ‘I don’t even need to talk trash about it,’ he says. ‘He just plays whatever game makes him look better anyway.’ And this year, no game better captures the sport or its stars better than ‘NBA 2K11.’ A game where Westbrook, Durant, and the Thunder are currently the fourth most played team online (behind just the Heat, Lakers, and Celtics).”

The NBA Alphabetical from HP: “If I could have picked three things to improve about Russell Westbrook’s game at the end of the last season, I’d have gone with improving his midrange game, lowering his turnovers, and lowering his usage rate (to better coexist with Kevin Durant). One month into the new season, exactly none of those things have happened. After connecting on just 34% of his looks from 10 to 15 feet last year, he’s converting 29% this year. After turning it over on 17% of his possessions last year, he’s still right around that mark at 16% (neither of these rates is bad in the overall scheme of things, I should mention). And after using 26% of available possessions on the floor last year, he’s jumped to 31% this season. And yet, Russell Westbrook has been undeniably awesome this year. Top 5 in the NBA awesome.”

Fran Blinebury passes along this great quote from KD: “Ah, to be young and Kevin Durant. On his last-second 18-footer that missed in 99-98 loss to the Rockets: ‘It felt good. Of course, all my shots feel good.’”

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@Other Thomas
Goran Dragic ain't a much better defender than Steve Nash...

@Sammy

I guess I still dont understand. On/off court stuff takes defense into account. Obviously hes a bad defender, and always has been, but he may be the best offensive pg ever and the effects heavily outweigh his defensive lapses. Its not as if you can say Hakim Warrick and Channing Frye make up for the penetration he allows on D.

Dude has to be in the top 5 for me. Shame that Pheonix is so bad this year. They actually remind me a lot of what Steph Curry was able to do with the Warriors when Monta went out last year, they had no good big guys (i still love Turiaf), and he willed them into playing some good basketball.

Also, I completely neglected Devin Harris. I'd put Harris at 7 ahead of Wall and bump Miller down off the list.

@Other Thomas
Nash is an incredible player, one of my all time favs. It's just hard for me to rate him super high because of his defense.

@Sammy

If you look at his on/off court numbers, Nash has been absolutely incredible this season (again). I dont know if anyone in the history of the game has had the impact on his teammates that Nash has. JRich is a completely different player when hes playin with Nash.

I feel like hes gotta be higher than 9 if you are rating for this season.

Forgot about Steph Curry when I did those PG rankings earlier. I guess Curry, Nash, and Andre Miller are my 8, 9, and 10.

Michael Beasley getting MIP? Certainly not due to defensive awareness.

Formerly a shaky shooter, his percentages (44.5 percent from the floor, 88.8 percent from the line) have risen enough to give him one of the better true shooting marks at his position. And while he's still not much of a long-range marksman, he was confident enough to bust a crucial 3 on the Hornets late in the fourth quarter -- and then promptly blow imaginary smoke off his scorching hands before placing them in imaginary holsters.

quote from holly

@greg@dxl
Do we need another 3/4 hybrid?

I think its the only way a small market can consistantly compete... Just curious how much ownership is willing to spend to win.

Maybe I am just missing something, but at 2 mil even if collison is just a good back up big who can come in get rebounds and play D wouldn't that be a pretty solid contract situation.

And how great of a player will Sef be if he keeps making his shots. If teams are going to ignore him, and he can make open shots at a decent rate we get a lot harder to defend. Any one think he has improved his shot or just on a hot streak lately?

Those rebounding splits are probably impacted a lot by player pairs, i.e. Collison / Ibaka played together last year almost always. This year Ibaka has played a lot more with Green.

@Sammy

i agree i think michael beasley should really be in the top 3... he has really revamped his career on the team of misfit toys...

and also i know garnett was injured last year but he has really improved this year.. he has been playing very effective ball for the c's

@Other Thomas

Great minds think a like! :)

@DXL

If you haven't noticed, DJ White has been playing pretty decent ball lately, including on the defensive end. He might be looking to solidify the PF spot with DJ and Serge with the uncertainty looming with Jeff Green. Lately, DJ has looked really good and has been a solid contributor when he's been on the floor.

Anyone else think that Green may be getting tons of minutes to bolster his trade value? It seems like DJ White and Serge are the future of power forward here, and Presti's latest moves lean this direction.

It will be fascinating to see who we can snag for him should we trade him.

Presti is way more patient than any of us and probably more patient than any other executive in the NBA right now (is there any GM with more job security?).

Long-term player development is what Presti is going to bank on. It's worked with Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka, they are all WAY better than they were as rookies. Presti's going to commit to his draftees for as many years as their contracts are cheap, no dumping of young prospects even if they're not looking great, no panic moves for grizzled old vets. He'll wait years if necessary for his guys to pan out. From James Harden to Cole Aldrich to Ryan Reid he's going to wait for them.

I couldn't believe Presti picked up D.J. White's 2-million dollar option for next season. 2 million for a guy who really hasn't done a thing in a live game. It's a sign of unwavering commitment to the long, sometimes fruitless, process of developing players in practice and in the minor leagues.

@DizzyDai

I forgot Nick. Collison's net was +2.8%. He was positive in Offensive and Defensive Rebounding.

@Mark!

Of course! Why didn't I think of that?

@divisadero

These are the kinds of things that work themselves out over the course of a season. Those same crappy teams will end up playing everyone, and conversely, those same quality opponents will play everyone as well. Stat based ratings like Hollinger's become significant around the all star break.

Hollinger's team ratings are dubious to say the least. Apparently beingthe subject of 80% of ESPN's NBA coverage and having a 10-8 record against a weaker schedule puts you above the Thunder. As does being 8-7, having a way lower SOS, and recently losing to the Thunder at home. See, Pacers, Indiana.

The problem seems to be the great weight given to average point margin in Hollinger's system. Winning big against a few crappy opponents apparently means more than winning close games against several quality opponents. (And occasionally losing big.)

Hey Presti loves his tweeners, how about this guy off the bench?

ESPN's Chad Ford
Williams has started strong, but tweener status may limit NBA ceiling

"Williams comes into the week with a whopping 45.63 PER -- the highest PER of any college player in the country. It has been well earned. Williams, the Pac-10 freshman of the year last season, is off to a terrific sophomore campaign. His numbers are simply stunning: 21 ppg in just 24.5 mpg. He's shooting 78 percent from the field and 78 percent from 3-point range (7-for-9). He clearly worked on his game over the summer. Not only does he look more athletic, but he has increased the range on his jumper and is confident putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket. Williams already has made more 3-pointers six games into the season than he did all of last season. His first real test was against Kansas on Saturday. KU threw three future pros -- Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris and Thomas Robinson -- at Williams and he still managed 27 points and 8 boards (6 of them offensive) against the Jayhawks. While NBA scouts liked Williams' potential at the start of the season, they are now referring to him as a lock for the first round and a potential lottery pick. Williams' 'tweener' status may limit his ceiling a bit. He's a bit undersized to play the 4, and while he's showing emerging perimeter skills, he's still not considered a pure 3 either. A few scouts have compared him to the Sixers' Thaddeus Young -- but Young never produced like this at the college level."

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

They don't have it linked, but you can manually change the URL to 0910

justin :
82games has it. We’re +1.8% on the boards with him in the game, most of that coming on the offensive boards. Only +.3% increase on the defensive boards, which is bad considering he’s in for elite defensive rebounders Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.

Why can't I find data for 09-10 on that site? I'm either going blind or it's just not there. I see data from several preceding seasons, but just not last years.

Just wanted to do a quick comparison current year to last year now that you pointed out where I can find +/- rebounding numbers. I don't know how many times I've looked at 82games.com and just never noticed that chart.

@DizzyDai
Ibaka is a much better rebounder than Green, but he's pretty much exactly league average for his position.

I thought Ibaka was a much better rebounder than Green. Per 82 games here are some total rebounding net numbers:

Mullens: -4.0% (Really small sample size)
Krstic: -2.5%
Green: -1.0%
Ibaka: -0.1%
White: +2.8%

Mullens, Ibaka, and Green had positive offensive rebounding numbers and negative defensive rebounding numbers.

White had positive numbers only in defensive rebounding.

Krstic had negative numbers in defensive and offensive rebounding.

Skeets and Tas spent the first 10 min of today's TBJ podcast gushing over OKC, check it out if you haven't already:

http://blogs.thescore.com/tbj/2010/11/30/ep-618-12...

@Mark!
Hibbert, Beasley, and Gordon could all make a case for MIP

I'd love to see Russ' athleticism featured more on defense. He gets steals due to his quickness, but I'd love to see him develop into a point-of-attack-defender who makes the other pg scared to ever run an iso against him. It's hard for that kind of defense to show up on the stat sheet although I'm sure somebody here knows where to get that information. I'm waiting for the day an opposing pg throws a punch at Russ out of frustration because of his smothering defense.

Paul Millsap should be in the running for MIP.

@OmahaOkcFan
Some of Rose's jams are just nasty.

@OmahaOkcFan

Agree 100% that as of today, Russ is the runaway leader for MIP.

You have to give Rondo, CP3, and DWILL the nod over Russ right now based on team records, however Russ should be leading candidate for most improved player along with Dorell Wright from G-State, Russ also has shown the most potential to get better among all pg's and is clearly the toughest, also he easily gets the best dunking pg award, his progress has been the best part of this season for me

Yeah Collison getting 3 or 4 more years isnt really gonna effect the team, why not just let Nick retire and make him an assistant coach, his role is basically veteran mentor at this point, other than that valuable charge a game he brings to the table, his game has diminished, and in 3 years im sure he will not get any playing time

@Jeff Allen
Rose is distributing the ball at a rate I didn't think he was capable of, even without Carlos Boozer. His leap in distributing ability is like Westbrook's leap last year; really impressive.

This Painted Area post about the Spurs offense is fascinating, especially the stuff about Tony Parker and his transition offense:
http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2010/11/manu-an...

Not once did Parker have the numbers, yet he converted every single time. Another thing I noticed is that, on any break above where it was 2-on-3 or 3-on-3, the non-Parker Spurs always looked to spot up behind the three-point line, rather than run to the basket, and were really trailers more than what we commonly think of as active participants in fast breaks.

It really might be the most bizarre fast-break approach I've seen: they have one little guy who gets the ball and dribbles like crazy, as he runs a one-man break which he can finish uncommonly well, even against the numbers, and even though he's not a physically dominating guy - he essentially can't even dunk in a game! And his teammates don't even look to run to the basket, they're just running to the line.

@Mark!

No doubt based only on the current season, Westbrook is #3

I'd still put Rondo and Rose ahead of Westbrook from a purely "prove it" perspective. If Russ is still putting up similar numbers through the ASB, that would be really impressive.

with deron rondo rose and paul they are asked more of themselves than russell... however as stated earlier by justin, russells usage rate has gone up 6% from last year... obvious reason 1 is kd isnt kd yet... so we will see

@justin
I don't see much separation between Westbrook and Williams defensively. I'd probably give the nod to Westbrook this year. This is a stat-less observation, though. Not trying to take anything away from DWill; he's been amazing. It shows how deep the current top of the PG crop in the league is that I can't find a place for Wall higher than 7th.

@Sammy

@justin

the thing thats really interesting is that head-to-head against most of these pgs so far russ has won that battle or its been close

Productivity wise, Russ' only big advantage over Williams is on the boards, and Russ going for the boards isn't always a positive thing. He gets more steals but again, probably because he gambles more.

Third best isn't bad, though.

I'd put Deron Williams ahead of Russell Westbrook for performance this season because of his defense against opposing PG's.

@Mark!

The comments won't let just a link through so here: http://www.82games.com/1011/10OKC12.HTM#onoff

If we're going by current season performance only, I'd go:
CP3
Westbrook
DWill
Rondo
Rose
Parker
Wall

Rondo and Rose are close; Rose is a better offensive player but I still don't trust his defense.

justin :

Jax Raging Bile Duct :
They need a +/- system for rebounds. It just feels like when Nick is in the game, we win the rebound war (whether Nick is the one getting the rebound or not).

82games has it. We’re +1.8% on the boards with him in the game, most of that coming on the offensive boards. Only +.3% increase on the defensive boards, which is bad considering he’s in for elite defensive rebounders Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.
The offense has been much worse with Nick in the game and, probably more worrisome, the defense hasn’t been much better. It’s probably got something to do with missing camp and recovering from injury, but it’s the second straight year that’s happened for him.

Where is that on 82games?

hey royce good article about russ and his rise to elite level pg...

i would have to put it like this though...

1. D. Will
2. CP3
3. Rondo
4. Rose
5. Westbrook
6. Nash
7. J. Kidd
8. T. Parker
9. John Wall
10. Devin Harris????

@Nullum
His numbers look terrible this year but keep in mind that's on all of 113 minutes and 13 FGAs. He's a tremendous shot blocker and tries to block everything, which gets him quick fouls as well. He's also a decent rebounder. His BBIQ is terrible; he really doesn't look like he has any idea what he's supposed to be doing out there. Given his elite shot-blocking skills, he's definitely worth waiting it out to see if he can get his game up to speed. Everyone makes fun of Kahn's draft that year, but Memphis' was almost as bad. People forget about it because the team was decent last year, but think if they had Evans or Curry instead of Thabeet...

@Sammy
But that's precisely why he does it. Whenever he makes them we're all as excited, aghast and surprised as he is.

I really like how DJ White has played defense when he's played this season.

Is there anyone here (Bob included) who would EVER have predicted a perfect double digit offensive outing for Sefolosha? I mean SERIOUSLY--two snaps up!!
The line in this Dime article about ..."until a flurry of OKC awesomeness.." gave me chills!
http://dimemag.com/2010/11/westbrook-beats-cp3-in-...

Jax Raging Bile Duct :
They need a +/- system for rebounds. It just feels like when Nick is in the game, we win the rebound war (whether Nick is the one getting the rebound or not).

82games has it. We're +1.8% on the boards with him in the game, most of that coming on the offensive boards. Only +.3% increase on the defensive boards, which is bad considering he's in for elite defensive rebounders Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.

The offense has been much worse with Nick in the game and, probably more worrisome, the defense hasn't been much better. It's probably got something to do with missing camp and recovering from injury, but it's the second straight year that's happened for him.