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November in review: The Thunder after one month

Layne Murdorch/NBAE/Getty Images

One (calendar) month down for the Thunder. And it’s been a weird one.

They sit at 12-6 after a month of oddly inconsistent basketball. They’re 4-0 on the second night of back-to-backs, have beat teams like Utah, Portland (twice) and Boston, but lost to the Clippers and Rockets. While some aren’t thrilled with the way the team is playing, I don’t think anyone is upset with the current results.

But we’ve got 18 games in the book and a month down. So let’s review, shall we? We shall.

BEST PLAYER
No doubt, it’s Russell Westbrook. He’s completely taken charge of the team and without his efforts, who knows where we’d be right now. Statistically, he’s outplaying LeBron right now. The thing that’s taken Westbrook to another level is his development of a consistent mid-range jumper plus his incredibly improved ability to finish at the rim. Even last season where Westbrook started to break out, he’d do everything but finish. This season, if he can get to the rim, it’s almost a done deal that he’s finishing the play.

Kevin Durant is still the team’s most talented player and a lot of Westbrook’s open lanes are helped from defenses leaning KD’s way. But after one month, Russ has definitely been OKC’s best player.

WORST PLAYER
Daequan Cook. Such high hopes for Cook coming in. I kept saying things like, “He wont the 3-point contest!” while trying to convince myself he was the sharpshooter OKC needed. But Cook was as cold as ice in the seven games he appeared in. He’s 3-16 from 3 and 5-18 overall from the field. Not great for a guy that’s only job is to shoot well.

MOST IMPROVED SINCE OPENING NIGHT
Serge Ibaka is starting to scare me. Like I’m terrified by the time he’s eligible for a contract extension that Oklahoma City won’t have enough cap room to pay him. He just keeps moving up and up in terms of his ability. He actually has a refined offensive game now. Watching Ibaka grow as a player has been fun to watch, especially because you can see a massive difference between him now and even opening night. The mid-range jumper, the aggressiveness in the post, his help defense – all of it is better. I can’t wait to see what he looks like by even Christmas.

MOST UNDERRATED CONTRIBUTOR
This is a toss-up a bit between Eric Maynor and D.J. White, but I’m going with White. His numbers are slight and his minutes small, but in the few spots where Scott Brooks has called on him, White has helped. He’s played better defense, rebounded well and given the Thunder a nice insurance policy at the end of the bench. At some point, he’s going to either get a legitimate shot to make the rotation of this team, or he’s going somewhere else. I’m convinced D.J. White is going to contribute somewhere.

PLAYER THAT’S DESTINED TO PLAY BETTER
It’s weird that we keep feeling unfulfilled by Kevin Durant’s play early on. But the fact he’s shooting just 42 percent from the field and 26.7 percent from 3 doesn’t feel right. And it’s not going to keep up. At the end of November last season, KD was shooting 46.3 percent from the floor and just 23.7 percent from 3, while averaging 27.7 ppg. He followed that up with a better December (29.7 ppg on 49.3 and 38.6) and then started his absolute dominance in January (32.1 ppg on 51.9 and 53.2). I keep telling you, don’t worry about KD. He’s still an awesome, awesome basketball player. I think the fact the team is winning this season compared to a slower start last season is a great thing and speaks to how much better this team is.

OKLAHOMA CITY’S RECORD AT THE END OF NOVEMBER LAST SEASON
The Thunder was 9-8 and really had a much easier schedule to start. So far this season, there have only been a handful of games against teams where you feel like the Thunder shouldn’t lose. So the pace this season for OKC is much better if they’re going to win 50 again.

STATISTICAL LEADERS
Kevin Durant leads the team (and the league) with 27.3 ppg as well as minutes per game (40.5). Russell Westbrook leads the team in assists per game with 8.4 and steals with 2.2. Westbrook is also tops in PER (third in the league), but leads the team with 3.9 turnovers per game. Serge Ibaka leads with 6.9 rpg, 2.1 bpg and is shooting the highest percentage from the field (58.0 percent). Eric Maynor is OKC’s top 3-point shooter at 40.9 percent.

LOOKING BACK AT PRESEASON PREDICTIONS
Back in August, I predicted how I thought the Thunder would do month-by-month this season. My guess for the first 18 games? A record of 12-6. And what are the Thunder? Why wouldn’t you know it, 12-6. GENIUS HERE PEOPLE.

I’d say after one month, it’s hard not to be happy. The record is good, the Thunder’s second in the Northwest and has the sixth seed right this second. Not bad for a team that we’d all agree isn’t playing anywhere near to what they’re capable of. But it’s just one month and there are three and half more to go. There’s no doubt that things could get better, but there’s also the option for it to go the other way. I’m nearly positive though that despite a nice 12-6 record, the Thunder’s only scratching the surface. I feel more relieved to have 12 wins right now than happy really. And I think that’s more reason to be encouraged.

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Thunder with D Howard = championship
they can give green, Krist and Peterson
West/Maynor
Sefo/Harden
Durant/Cook
Ibaka/Colison
Howard/Aldrich

@DSMok1

ASPM is now regressed to some degree? How? It is after the full initial calculation?

Have you considered regressing USG% and AST% (and maybe other things) at the extremes?

That might help Ibaka. Not that is is the goal per se. But fitting ratings to players is the overall goal and if low usage is hurting some players too much (in comparison to Adjusted +/- or eye 'n feel) or low or very low assists are are hurting some players too much then applying adjustment in a specific spot / specific way might be appropriate.

From the hoopsworld article, Brooks on Ibaka:

"... he has to play low here."

There are different ways to read and react to that.

I won't address them all. But I will say that just as Durant and his "natural position" creates issues for Green playing his natural position so Durant and Green create issues with Ibaka playing his natural position. If position doesn't matter much these days this shouldn't be a problem. If position still matters quite a bit then it is causing problems and will continue to do so.

I will add that per minute Ibaka's shots at the rim are down over 20%. And though he has been a very strong mid-range shooter in general, he is quite cold from 10-15 feet this season. He has been taking more outside shots... because he doesn't naturally play "low" and he is drifting out and being a jumpshooter regardless of what position they play him at or the role / spot on the floor they think he should fill more on offense.

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@AC

Garnett crushes Ibaka on defensive rebounds. Ibaka crushes Garnett on offensive rebounds. But by using total rebounds
ASPM gives the rebounding comparison by total volume to Garnett. Ibaka clearly the better shooter / scorer, but Garnett with almost 50% greater usage and about 750% of the assists, probably getting the advantage on offense in ASPM too.

Bolts! Bolts! Bolts!

@DSMok1

When I said usage I meant usage%. USG% is indeed a big part of the ASPM formula and to get a high relative ranking it helps to have a high usage. You are pretty disadvantaged relatively if you don't. More so than with assists.

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@AC
I meant poorly compared to other "advanced stats".

@DSMok1
It's interesting how disparate ASPM treats KG and Ibaka, while win shares, PER, /36 minute stats show them to be relatively similar.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tin...

(PER isn't on there but its 19.45 for Garnett and 19.02 for Ibaka.

What's a guy gotta do to get some bolts around here?

http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smith_101129.html

An article about Rose for MVP. It'd be unlikely, but I'd love to see a Westbrook and Rose MVP race.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2010/12/1/1848583/devi...

Devin Harris is out for a little while to a long while. Looks like Jordon Farmar will start tonight.

@Myles

The way things are going we are going to fall apart trying to resign everyone.

I forget who said it the other day, but, holy cow, It's crazy to imagine what Westbrooks extension offer might look like.

Still no words about Thabo in this forum, who has improved his offensive impact this season, isn't it ?
Thabo is the humble warrior, doing tremedeous work in the shadow...

Despite all the drama, it sure has been fun to watch the Thunder again. We had some mind boggling wins and some disappointing losses but the team still has a great record.

It's too bad I'll miss the game against the Nets because it does look like an interesting match up but hopefully we get win # 13 tonight.

AC :@DSMok1

Any insight into why Ibaka is so poor in statistical plus minus? His stats have been pretty good so far this year, and his Win Share/48 is pretty good. What term in the calculation is holding Ibaka back?

He's not exactly poor, but what primarily is holding him back is his complete lack of passing/assists. My research has shown that a player's offensive impact is actually best represented by, basically, USG*(TS%-Threshold+USG%+AST%). It's actually a lot more complicated, but that is the basic formulation: assists effect everything in terms of overall offensive value.

Actually, Ibaka and DJ White both have this issue with very few assists. Ibaka has nearly the fewest assists in the NBA for the minutes he's played.

qrex :@innocent bystanderIt’s not so much that the Thunder drops easy wins, but they win “unwinnable” games (@Boston) and lose “unloseable” games (@Clippers).
The real question is, “When will we win a Sunday game?” 12-2 v. 0-4

Hopefully against Golden State. I'll be in attendance.

Crow :
Advanced SPM is across the entire league and does not distinguish by position or by size of role (including usage) so being negative often will along with having a low usage, I believe.

In usage, are you referring to USG% (how often the player shoots/turns it over) or how many minutes the player plays? USG% is a big part of the ASPM formula.

You are correct, though--there is no position adjustment in the formula (which may hamper the accuracy a little).

Mark! :@DSMok1

How many players are >= 0?

0 is by definition league-average. However, since the good players play more minutes, there aren't as many players above average than below average.

Currently, there are exactly 115 players above average. Here are a sampling of players right about average this year (all players between +0.3 and -0.3 per 100 possessions):
SAS Matt Bonner
BOS Delonte West
LAL Derek Fisher
PHO Grant Hill
ORL Jason Williams
ORL Rashard Lewis
MIN Anthony Tolliver
NYK Toney Douglas
LAC Craig Smith
BOS Glen Davis
NYK Wilson Chandler
HOU Aaron Brooks
NOH Emeka Okafor
DAL Shawn Marion
NJN Brook Lopez
PHO Channing Frye
CLE Antawn Jamison
DEN Melvin Ely
MIN Michael Beasley
CHI Ronnie Brewer
MIL Chris Douglas-Roberts

@innocent bystander@Boston@Clippers
).

The real question is, "When will we win a Sunday game?" 12-2 v. 0-4

Darko is leading the league in blocks. I guess he is free now?

Royce, how can you have a November review without coomenting on the coaching staff? If there's an area for improvement in the organization right now it has to be coaching. Poor player development (Aldrich, Mullens), playing some guys too many minutes (Durant, Green), inadequate offensive schemes (too much Durant iso, little player movement, too many 0 or 1 pass possesions, etc) and consistent defensive effort are all areas demanding improvement. I don't want to seem critical of Brooks because I think he's prooved to be the right coach for this team so far. However, this is a very young and evolving group of guys. Especially and including Brooks. Brooks needs to stay out in front. He needs to be thinking more about how he's going to get that playoff win this year (ie addressing the previously mentioned team flaws) with less myopic focus on wining games in November. It's a fine line to walk, but the successful coaches (Jackson, Rivers, Sloan, Pops, etc) do it. As well as stay connected in a meaningful way with the players. Which he does. I think the team's success going forward from this point will be driven more by Brooks' ability to improve his coaching than any specific improvement from the players.

@DSMok1
Any insight into why Ibaka is so poor in statistical plus minus? His stats have been pretty good so far this year, and his Win Share/48 is pretty good. What term in the calculation is holding Ibaka back?

Looks like the Jazz has a fairly easy schedule in December too. They should dominate most of their opponets. Too bad. I was hoping OKC could regain the NW divison next month.

@kfmsooner

Have no fear, they're still around. Lurking, waiting.

You know we are playing better when I read thru 75 comments and I don't read 1 'trade Jeff Green for ______" comment...

DeWayne :

Bryan :
I think Russ and KD should come over to my place and practice a little two-man game.

I can’t believe no one called you out on this quote…

Me either lol... nothing quite like an accidental euphemism

@andrew
Imagine if he could keep up that passing mindset for the whole game, or at least everything but the last 5 minutes when he takes over completely.

@Kivman

Yeah it is still pretty wide open.
A 7 team race in the west for the top 4 seeds, at most.

Still probably a 12 team race to make the playoffs, at most. Could be down to 10 by the end of next month or more likely by the end of January.

In general it is fairly typical for good teams to have 2-3 guys with moderate to big positive impacts and 2-4 with small positive to neutral impacts. Usually after the 6th - 8th man the best you can typically hope for is that they don't hurt you much.

Crow :@andrew

To move up and take a top 4 seed, at least one of Dallas, New Orleans and Utah will probably have to fall back some.

I could see New Orleans or Utah falling behind OKC. Not a given, but definitely possible.

If Thabo is ranked 85th at +1.0 and Ibaka is ranked 138 at -0.4 then it appears that a score of 0 would probably get you a rank of maybe 110-120. With 413 players with minutes played it appears 27-30% of players are at or above neutral on ASPM.

3 different version of Adjusted +/- have roughly 30, 40 and 50% above neutral. What neutral means probably varies among the metrics.

Average player, average performance, average starter are different things and that may explain some or much of the difference %s above neutral.

Different from the big credit for any rebounding, especially relative to your position in Wins Produced or equal credit for either type of rebounding and not especially high credit (as I understand it) in ASPM, there are other alternatives. Piecemeal you could look at net counterpart rebounding data. Or you can also just know that "adjusted rebounding impact" is a part of the Adjusted +/- roll-up if you use that. (It was broken out as a separate Adjusted factor one time and may be again some day.)

@andrew

To move up and take a top 4 seed, at least one of Dallas, New Orleans and Utah will probably have to fall back some.

If Advanced SPM is still based on TR% (as stated in the past) and doesn't give offensive rebounds more weight than defensive rebounds (as they have in the offense only version) then offensive rebounders, in my mind, may appear lower than they would otherwise.

Also Brandon Roy attempted 9 shots in 33 minutes for the Blazers tonight as they lost to the Sixers. If he doesn't get any healthier I would be shocked if the Blazers win more than 45 games. The Northwest division is a two man race between us and Utah imo.

complacency has crept back up on the Lakers... I still say the number one seed in the West is up for grabs.. San Antonio will cool off as well... I feel pretty good about our chances for a top 4 seed.

@Mark!

I'd guess it would be in the 30-35% range.

Advanced SPM is across the entire league and does not distinguish by position or by size of role (including usage) so being negative often will along with having a low usage, I believe.

Advanced SPM and traditional Adjusted +/- are pretty close to agreement on Ibaka and Maynor as being slightly below neutral. They agree Krstic is quite negative, varying only on how big. Harden, Thabo and Collison are not clear cut because 1 and 2 yr Adjusted +/- disagree and the 2 yr still has very large estimate average error. Advanced SPM and traditional Adjusted +/- come to very opposite assessments of Green- Advanced SPM says slightly below neutral, Adjusted +/- says very negative (on 1 yr and 2 yr).

Westbrook's ASPM is 7.7. His Adjusted +/- at basketball value is less on 1 year and 2 year. Error involved in all these measures and they may not be perfectly aligned but big-picture and roughly it may be that his statistical production is higher than than his overall impact, leaving some level of negative non-boxscore impact.

Kevin Durant, perhaps the reverse.

Due to their team defensive impact's and impact on the offense of others beyond that which is covered by ASPM.

Being a huge minute 4th year player Green could be said to have as many "young player before his prime" minutes as anyone. If you are optimistic about his future you'd probably say it was 100%. The same could be generally said for guys with the same level of experience or less, but very few will have played as many minutes. Most players of any significance for the discussion will have some share of their years in the relatively prime range of 25-28. So this list casts Green in a very unfavorable comparative light. But the way to avoid the glare even with the unfavorable factors would be to play better, especially rebound and shoot better.

@Danny

Underperformance on rebounds will hurt you on Wins Produced more than other measures, especially at an interior position. Big minutes hurts Green too. Folks may not necessarily agree with the full extent of these impacts on the ratings. Inefficient shooting and doing a lot of it will hurt too. It should but maybe not quite as much.

@DSMok1

How many players are >= 0?

Westbrook is up to #2 in the NBA! Unfortunately, KD is down at 63rd so far this year.

The top 20 in the NBA so far:
Chris Paul 11.58
Russell Westbrook 7.71
LeBron James 6.70
Manu Ginobili 6.52
Dwight Howard 6.28
Pau Gasol 6.20
Al Horford 6.11
Deron Williams 5.95
Dirk Nowitzki 5.64
Josh Smith 5.60
Derrick Rose 5.46
Paul Millsap 5.09
Kobe Bryant 5.06
Tony Parker 4.91
Rajon Rondo 4.90
Carmelo Anthony 4.82
Devin Harris 4.65
Jameer Nelson 4.63
Kevin Garnett 4.42
Joakim Noah 4.27

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