Home > Commentary > Attention worried Thunder fans: Calm down!

Attention worried Thunder fans: Calm down!

Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images

You there! Stop! Slowly back away from the keyboard before you do something you’re going to regret.

To those people whom I haven’t already lost to the comment section here to blast me, let me please say first that I don’t mean to call out or pick a fight with anyone. Every reader, commenter and non-commenter here is a valued member of the Daily Thunder community (and, I can safely assume, the Thunder community at large), let there be no doubt. A slice of vocal and loyal supporters is who you expect to see on a sports website comment board, and that’s what Daily Thunder has and what it ought to have. And a fan’s emotions are always rawest soon after a game ends, leading to hyperbole one way or the other depending on how the team fared.

But I think it’s important to recognize and address some of the fan sentiment shown the comment section of Daily Thunder’s recap of Oklahoma City’s home loss Sunday to the Utah Jazz highlights two important points at this stage of the season. Granted, vocal members of any segment of a fan base certainly do not always represent the majority of view points out there. It is certain, though, that comments on websites like Daily Thunder are a telling representative sample of how some of the most diehard fans are feeling.

So let’s paraphrase some of what was said in the first several dozen comments on Sunday’s recap. Russell Westbrook, not Kevin Durant, should be the team leader and No. 1 scoring option. It’s time to at least think about replacing Scott Brooks. The James Harden pick was a mistake. The coaching staff needs a shake-up. Jeff Green was a hot topic of debate, as he would be on Daily Thunder if Royce wrote something about nothing but puppies and sunshine.

Along with the general frustration and worry expressed in more even-keeled comments, the few outlandish remarks sent me clear message: People are a little too worked up and on edge this early in the season. I feel like people would be wise to keep two things in mind.

– The Thunder is 2-1 with Kevin Durant shooting 38 percent, James Harden playing poorly on offense, the rotation in flux and Nick Collison in a suit. None of these things will last the whole season.

For that matter nothing right now can be counted on to last the whole season. Point out any advanced or non-advanced stat you want — any statistician from grunt level to genius will tell you there isn’t a big enough sample size to make definitive judgments.

The Thunder looked bad Sunday night. The Thunder looked bad on plenty of nights in the 2009-10 season. The Thunder started out 2-0, then dropped three straight and hovered around .500 well into December. Much later in the season, people were plenty upset and afraid after blowout losses March 3 at Denver and March 21 at Indiana. Even later, the Thunder stumbled down the stretch and slipped away from contention for the No. 2 spot in the playoffs to No. 8 in a stretch that included an indefensible loss at Golden State. You may recall the season somehow ended up one box-out from pushing the Lakers as far as the Celtics did.

The bottom line is that any three-game stretch would be too small to make any sort of judgment on any player or coach. Put these same three games in the middle of winter under the same circumstances. Would anyone really be hoping for Sam Presti to be evaluating other coaching options if the Thunder played like crap on a Sunday night in January?

Actually, from here on out, the answer to that question may be yes. Which brings up the second point, one made before here and probably elsewhere.

– Never again will it be as fun as last season, unless and until the Thunder wins a title.

This isn’t the place for OU football talk, but it’s an obvious, recent and local comparison that can be presented in a few sentences, so you’ll have to bear with me.

The Sooners came from out of nowhere to win a national championship during Bob Stoops’ second season in 2000. The head-spinning, euphoric rise was unexpected and sudden, and a future of unbridled potential seemed guaranteed. What followed has been unprecedented and dominant success that has ultimately somehow failed to live up to yearly and daily expectations of the fans and media. In a decade in which the team won six conference titles (including 2000) and no one else won more than two, OU finished lower than or equal to its preseason AP poll position in every single season from 2001-2010. Wins are met with relief, not celebration, and losses are agonizing. Close wins are criticized.

That’s what the Thunder and its fans have in store for them this season and in the future. The stunning run from 23 wins in 2008-09 to three thrilling playoff games in downtown Oklahoma City last April was as good as it’s going to get in terms of pure fun until the season ends with a parade. I don’t know — should Oklahoma City be asking itself if it really knows what it’s in for? The Jazz — the same team that crushed the Thunder on Sunday — seem to have a pretty tortured NBA fan base after being consistent contenders, but never champions, for more than two decades. The Jazz made the playoffs for 20 years before missing out in 2004 and 2005, and the fans have plenty of fond memories of Hall of Fame players, big wins and big games, but they aren’t a joyful bunch.

I don’t think the joy is dead in Thunder fans. It’s hard to go from meeting the team at the airport in the spring to joyless in late October. But I do think things have changed, and if it’s not for the worse, it’s certainly become a more stressful environment. Each game becomes a microcosm of the season and the franchise’s mission, and it will be easy to make snap judgments and lose focus of long-term goals.

Having opinions and sharing them is part of what makes the world an interesting place. That includes criticism in general and the Thunder on this website. But for those who are seriously worried after three games, remember that there are 79 more and that Thunder fans should hang onto the fun for as long as possible. It brings to mind a favorite quote of mine from ESPN.com football columnist Gregg Easterbrook.

Don’t panic. There will be plenty of time for that later.

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No way Harden starts anytime soon.

Yes, way too early to panic. I've been surprised by the lineups, especially since the most logical adjustments aren't implemented: harden starts and Cole getting minimum 20 min. I've been surprised by Hardens numbers and KD's fg% and some orb numbers but I think they're adjusting to expectations. ill start to.worry if were under 500 after 30 games

sushi :
@ everybody
Stop being stat junkies! Numbers don’t always tell the truth. This team is going to do great because they have heart on the court

There is hardly a single stat in this whole thread. No one is using stats to say how poor this team is. The major theme of this thread is that so far the Thunder have the same problems this season that they had last season.

sushi :@ everybody
Stop being stat junkies! Numbers don’t always tell the truth. This team is going to do great because they have heart on the court

We had heart against the Lakers last year. We lost. Butler had heart against Duke. They lost. Princeton had heart against might Georgetown in 1985 (I think). They lost. Talent and coaching win games. Heart is great, and we have it, but we won't beat the Lakers, Blazers, Mavericks, Rockets, etc., just because we have heart.

@ everybody

Stop being stat junkies! Numbers don't always tell the truth. This team is going to do great because they have heart on the court

@daniel teague is not good. Bibby is easily the worst defensive pg in the league but Teague still can't cut into his minutes. Maynor would be an upgrade over both of them IMO.

Don't think the hawks would want maynor, they already have Jeff Teague as their pg of the future.

@Andrewonipod

Point taken. Maynor / Ibaka might not be enough for Smith, though.

@Justin the fact remains they have at least their long term sg but lack a pg. I think mayor would be much more attractive to them than harden

Andrewonipod :@Justin why would atl want harden? That makes no sense… They have Johnson and Crawford

Crawford's a FA after this season.

@Justin why would atl want harden? That makes no sense... They have Johnson and Crawford

@kfmsooner

I like Josh Smith a lot. Not sure if he's the answer for us, but he'd probably cost at least Ibaka and probably Ibaka / Harden IMO.

ESPN Insider:

"Now that Al Horford has signed a five-year, $60 million extension, the Hawks have about $313.5 million in committed salaries through the 2015-16 season. They don't have any issues regarding the luxury tax this season, but 2011-12 could be different as they already have $65.24 million on the books with just nine players under contract.

Looking at 2011-12, ESPN.com's Chad Ford wonders if Atlanta will make a trade to reduce their future salaries and if Josh Smith will be the player that's moved.

Ford writes: "That situation is already leading to speculation that GM Rick Sund may be forced to put Josh Smith on the market soon. Sund briefly flirted with trading Smith last summer, before pulling back. While no one is claiming he's been made available yet, a number of GMs around the league expect his name to be in the mix by the February trade deadline. ... A number of teams, including the Knicks, Nets, Pistons and Suns, have shown interest in the high-flying forward in the past. It will be interesting to see if talks heat up as we get closer to February."

Smith is signed though the 2012-13 season and is owed a total of $37.5 million. Smith is on the books for $11.7 million this year."

Nice fit for OKC? I think so...

Jeff Green is not worth that. Glad Presti did not sign him.

As for the rest of the article, it is not 3 games. Most of our problems in the first week are the same problems we had last year. It is frustrating not to see our team grow. Is there a chance they will get better? Obviously. Most of us were hoping for less Jeff Green, more of a role for James Harden, more Ibaka at the 4 and Aldrich to compete more quickly. Time will tell, and I am behind the Thunder, but I want to see improvement.

Is Scott Brooks our Doug Collins?

@justin
Pretty sure it's going to be Mayo that goes, he is too redundant with both Gay and Conley resigned.

Krstic to the bench = bottom line It will happen eventually

Conley's contract makes me remember Mike Dunleavy.They got more than they did for their team.

I can't believe the Grizzlies. They're going to have to let either Gasol or Mayo go, now. Crazy...

This thread makes me pretty happy, guys!

I've been ignoring the game threads, a lot like Jax it sounds, because I'm just not the type to get overly negative too quickly. I have a lot of faith in our guys and the FO to get things worked out.

I understand the criticisms people have, and don't necessarily disagree with any of them, but I'll wait a few more games to see how things are going. Until then, I'm glad to see a thread here that is mostly positive to balance out the others. Moderation in all things, guys!

I love this community where we can come and talk things out. It helps me a lot, and has really helped with my knowledge of the NBA. Smart people around here!

@Ted

Dunno if they will forget about him or not but like I said on draft night, Ryan Reid has no shot of ever seeing an NBA floor. Still can't believe there were people on this blog projecting him on the roster in coming years...

@Daniel

Irrelevant now. We'll see how the rules change with the new CBA.

What the Grizzlies have just done is set a baseline for Jeff Green.

Jeff will now look at that and say if Mike Conley can get that, why can't I? After all, Green was drafted just one pick after Conley in 2007.

So... is Uncle Jeff worth 5 yrs/$45 million?

Dude-- Eric Maynor needs a RAISE!!!!! He has got to be the lowest paid back-up point guard in history! Aubrey and/or Clay need to set him up with a sideline promotional gig or something....

@justin
Well if Scott Presti liked him enough to draft him instead of using the trade as an asset or drafting someone else the thunder organization aren't just going to forget about him. So where is he? I saw he was going to play in Poland but then that theory got debunked and hes not in the d-league either.

Ted :I just saw the 66ers line up and… what happened to ryan reid? is he playing over seas? where is that guy?

He's not good at basketball.

I just saw the 66ers line up and... what happened to ryan reid? is he playing over seas? where is that guy?

That Mike Conley contract... Holy amazing wowsers. I think that + the Rudy Gay contract are worse than anything David Kahn has done. Memphis might have two of the five worst contracts in the league and they iinked both of them within the last 4 months.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :I was holding out hope that the offense would be addressed. I listened to Brooks hint at that exact thing last season. It didn’t happen. You can read dozens of my posts from last year expressing that same frustration.

I completely agree with this Jax. Our offense is so simplistic. It's either pick and roll, or it's KD coming off a screen. Once in a while, it's Green in the post. That's it. That's our whole offense.

There must be better ways to utilize our offensive weapons.

@Anonymous
woops, my bad. Michael Heisley it is. Been reading so many many tweets comparing the two owners that I mixed them up.

Wow, you guys are killing me. After 3 games there is already a call to make coaching changes? Change the line up? After the year OKC had last year, I think everyone should be happy with the future outlook of the team.

OKC is pretty damn lucky to have an NBA team anyways, I suggest y'all start acting like it, and quit embarassing yourselves on here.

The complaints and whining by the Thunder fan base is laughable. Those folks in Seattle were right, you guys definitely dont deserve an NBA team. Just do the right thing and support your team, and quit the complaining after 3 games. EMBARASSING!

daniel :
Memphis signed Conley to a $45m/5yr extension tonight, that along with the Rudy Gay extension have to leave them pretty close to the cap. Any way Marc Gasol can be had?

Marc Gasol WILL be had, but I doubt it will be by us. Unless Sterling is in some sort of "eff you" mode to the rest of the league and continues to overpay his own players..

@daniel
We can only hope. And if he's getting the same or less than Noah and Horford, we should definitely be taking a look.

Memphis signed Conley to a $45m/5yr extension tonight, that along with the Rudy Gay extension have to leave them pretty close to the cap. Any way Marc Gasol can be had?

On a positive sidenote about the last game, did anyone there see the person dressed as "durantula" with the daily thunder shirt on?

That was was my lone smile for the night as I sat by some Utah fans.

"

justin :@ATH

James Harden’s been cruddy but I agree that a big part of that is lack of confidence. I don’t think Brooks’ treatment of Harden’s minutes, especially relative to the rest of the roster, does him any favors in this respect.
"
I swear it feels like Green is the only supporting player who doesn't get pulled no matter how many bricks he lofts up there in a given outing.

@ATH

James Harden's been cruddy but I agree that a big part of that is lack of confidence. I don't think Brooks' treatment of Harden's minutes, especially relative to the rest of the roster, does him any favors in this respect.

"Don’t panic. There will be plenty of time for that later."

More like: "Don't panic. You could be a Cowboys fan."

One thought on the Harden/Curry debate. Everyone saw Curry struggle with Team USA, right? He botched fancy passes, shot decently (45% and 37%) and played poor defense. Basically, he looked uncomfortable and wasn't allowed to shoot himself into a groove. Is there any certainty at all he would be at his current level (on Golden State) if he spent last year behind Westbrook on the Thunder bench? He seems to thrive on freedom and freelance basketball, and OKC's offense makes everyone play tight. He would have been benched for those kind of turnovers or getting repeatedly burned on D. Sure, he is shooting the lights out in the NBA, but his biggest advantage over Harden is his CONFIDENCE. He isn't fazed by a bad play.

It's been said before, but Harden would absolutely have put up better numbers on Golden State than he did on the Thunder last year. I don't think the environment in OKC would have worked that great with Curry's style--he definitely would not have gotten many more minutes than Harden got--and I don't like the idea of Russell having to scoot over to SG to get all our best players on the floor. It's a tough sell right now, but Harden was the best pick and remains an ideal fit at SG between Westbrook and Durant if he approaches his potential. It's tempting to look at the last few drafts and think What If, but we have to get past this.

UcoBronchos10 :How about we forget the numbers and watch the games. If you go by the numbers, no way we won 50 games last year. Chill Out and Thunder Up.

Go by what numbers? The Thunder were a pretty good team by the numbers last season.

andrew :OKC trades: Maynor, Green, White, PetersonAtl trades: Bibby, Smith.
Atlanta loses some long term salary and gains a potential PG of the future in Maynor, and a solid player in Green.
OKC gets a legit PF in Josh Smith and a veteran presence on the bench in Bibby.

Atlanta doesn't lose any long term salary as they will have to re-sign Jeff Green for this to make sense at all. No reason for them to even want Green as they already have his clone Marvin Williams.

OKC wouldn't be able to get Josh Smith without giving up Ibaka or Harden, probably both.

OKC trades: Maynor, Green, White, Peterson
Atl trades: Bibby, Smith.

Atlanta loses some long term salary and gains a potential PG of the future in Maynor, and a solid player in Green.

OKC gets a legit PF in Josh Smith and a veteran presence on the bench in Bibby.

How about we forget the numbers and watch the games. If you go by the numbers, no way we won 50 games last year. Chill Out and Thunder Up.

Great Article. And I agree, even myself got a little worked up. However, the fact that we have the ability to work on our lineups and be 2-1 shows something. I know its hard to understand, but if we can do it now, and only lose a few games, compared to doing it later and losing clutch games it will be fine with me. Especially if it gives the the team a good chemistry working together for the rest of the year. Also, it doesn't speak poorly on brooks part when the lineups he is trying to work with are players with their own personal games a work in progress. With Durant shooting not like usual (most likely will take a bit to get back into the swing after a really busy summer) and harden struggling to find his place, its hard for brooks to piece incomplete pieces together at the time. It will all take some time and hopefully it will work out. In a month or two we still are having lots of trouble than maybe you can look into being alot more worryfull, but lets not forget other teams have troubles too. At least ours is lineup and not injury (except collison which will be great to get back). So lets get excited to see what happens.

"So let’s paraphrase some of what was said in the first several dozen comments on Sunday’s recap. Russell Westbrook, not Kevin Durant, should be the team leader and No. 1 scoring option. It’s time to at least think about replacing Scott Brooks. The James Harden pick was a mistake. The coaching staff needs a shake-up. Jeff Green was a hot topic of debate, as he would be on Daily Thunder if Royce wrote something about nothing but puppies and sunshine."

Oh no. After last year's magic carpet ride, has it finally come to...*this*:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0

Brooks is not a foolish guy.If a player shows his attitude and ability,he can get minutes.Ibaka is a good example.I believe Aldrich can get his minutes and be an important role for thunder

The Thunder are allowing the most FGAs at the rim by far at 32.5/game (league average is 22.4). That's a pretty staggering number but not really unexpected with all the small ball lineups we've used. Still, this was the defense's biggest leak last year and it's a discouraging start to say the least.

Other bright spots (similar to last season) - 2nd on team steals, 8th on blocks.

Of course raw +/- is an uneven playing field, especially in such a small sample. But I take a look anyways.

It is real early, yada, yada...

but raw +/- to date

Thabo and Ibaka are best but only +2.
Durant next among starters at -5.
Westbrook -8, Kristic -10, Green -13.
Harden also -10.
Aldrich and Maynor even. Cook -4.

The 6 best 5 man lineups- based on total +/- not per minute, all had Ibaka. Durant has in 5 of those, Green 4, Westbrook surprisingly just 2, Thabo 2, Harden 4, Maynor 4, Cook 2, Aldrich 1, Krstic 0.

Starting lineup even in 48 minutes, again right around 16 minutes per game same as last season.

About 20 lineups used. 4 others used about 4 minutes per game or more.

Maynor Cook Harden Durant Ibaka
Westbrook Sefolosha Durant Green Ibaka
Westbrook Harden Durant Green Ibaka
Maynor Harden Cook Green Ibaka

So it is 1/3rd starting line. about 1/3rd next four lineups and about 1/3 other.

@justin
id like to see krstic/ibaka on kaman/griffin kaman is the kind of center nenad defends well