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The two anonymus commenst were made by me...for accountability

Iam in a agreement with needing a great Center. Thats the only thing missing from OKC chess board. If I was the owner I would try everything in my power to get one. Putting together a trade package + money. However they handle it. Collison, Aldrich, Kristic for a D Howard type of guy. NBA Champions hands down right there.

Maybe 3 trip-dubs from Russ

Also, I predict a triple double for KD, Russ AND Harden. HArden is going to have some very remerable games. He will make the highlight reel amply this season

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Bravo. Empirically speaking, I agree with everything you said and ydiplomacy should me a model for communication on here. Despite this, sicne i have not time for the factsm I tend to prefer quasi-blind optimism. Example:

Thunder go 58-24, NBA Champs
Durant: 33.7, 9 Rebs, 3.3 Asst. 51%FG, 43% 3pt, 1.8 Blocks
Westbrook: 18.7 pts., 9.0Asst, 5 rebs 45 Fg%, 33% 3pt, 2 St, 1 Blk
Harden: 16.8 Pts, 5 asst. 5 rebs, 48 FG, 42 3pt, 2 st
Ibaka: 9 pts, 10 Rbs, 2.3 blcks
Alrich. 6 pts, 7 rebs, 1.6 blcks

Im a huge Thunder fan from Michigan. And although I loathe the act of proving street cred, I bought a Westbrook Jersey in January of 09.

*right at the 5, not 4

I don't know that it's "obvious" Ibaka is not right at the 4. He has had his successes there and I think there are times when he makes sense. I don't think anyone favors starting him there, but he could still be used there depending upon match ups.

Fact is, the front court rotation is still going to hold this team back for a while. I don't see Aldrich developing into much more than a good rotation guy. We are still missing a real post player and probably will be for quite some time.... somebody get Dwight Howard on the phone and tell him that the guy he wants to play with is in OKC.

Wow, a long discussion going on here about Ibaka. Well...he's obviously not a C. He needs to be a PF. Aldrich should be our starting 5. If he gets into foul trouble (as rookies tend to), bring in Krstic. Collison & Ibaka should be sharing the minutes at the 4. I am really tired of the short line ups with Green at the 4, no matter who you put at the 5 (even though Ibaka is the worst fit there). That won't ever work against good teams.

I'd want a line up of Westbrook, Harden, KD, Ibaka and Aldrich. With Maynor, Thabo, Green, Collison and Krstic off the bench. Also, Brooks needs to find minutes for Cook, who could be a steal.

Also we got from this game how much a solid back PG means to a team.

@Zed
we are the 3rd most popular site on truehoop network i think

Wow, you guys are awesome. This site oozes passion. *continues munching on popcorn*

Was kev here when Synergy was made available? Westbrook's rating in pick and roll defense would amuse him, I think...

Greg :
Speaking of, where is Kev?

I was thinking the same thing. Last year he wasn't around in the offseason hardly at all but was right here posting as soon as the games started. Maybe he's taking a sabbatical from his defensive breakdowns, getting ready for another round of 82.

I just got my Thunder tag!!!

To be clear, I like Serge a ton. An athletic, energy big who can shoot is a nice asset. And that's probably his floor as a player.

I think that looking at his physical tools it gets too easy to assume he'll learn how to use them and put it all together. It frustrates me to see him playing center, I think it will stunt his development a little.

Mark! :I also agree Ibaka has more POTENTIAL than Harden, so long as we’re defining POTENTIAL as the gap between actual currently possessed skill and whatever possibilities my imagination can dream up.

Yeah, I can agree with this.

@Bryan

No. I've learned that this functionality is available to scouts and NBA teams but they don't have it implemented for the public.

Before I head out, I just want to say that we will know a lot more after next Monday, when the Thunder face San Antonio......

@justin
Is there anyway to discern between PF's and C's in terms of who they are defending?

I'd be curious to see if there is a significant difference between the two.

The spot up shooting rankings and data seem suspect to me on Synergy, because watching the video of the plays it seems like the defensive breakdown on a successful spot up is often the fault of a player not actively defending the play. For example, if Westbrook switches on a screen and leaves Jeff Green guarding Deron Williams, who drives right by him drawing the defense. Pass is kicked out to Wes Matthews who has an open look while Thabo closes out. It goes in, and that's points scored on Thabo as a spot up. In reality it was Westbrook's fault, or Green's.

It seems a lot more accurate the simpler the play, especially for one on one type stuff. Like isolations, post ups, etc. It seems to track pick and rolls well also.

Just to be clear, Synergy doesn't apply an arbitrary 'rating' to players. It ranks them based on points per play (either given up or scored). On the topic of post up defense, I can't imagine how opponent PPP can be misleading unless you think Synergy is mis-labeling plays. I've watched a lot of plays off Synergy though and I haven't really seen this as a problem, especially on post plays since it's really obvious what is a post up and what isn't (and who is defending the post up).

To me, arguing against this data would be similar to arguring against Russell Westbrook's 3pt%, i.e. "Russ is a good 3pt shooter". The data is what it is. In this case it also correlates with what I see with my eyes, that Serge is much more effective in face up, isolation type defense than when someone puts his back to him.

It's nothing like that Nick because he played solid defense the majority of the time he was in. Obviously Green didn't shoot well the whole time.

For some reason my comment is awaiting moderation, dunno why. Repost:

It seems as though there’s some selection bias going on here. Because you can recall these key moments where Serge played good post defense, he must have played good post defense for the rest of the time. That’s essentially what you were saying – he couldn’t have played good post defense in these scenarios unless he played good post defense the rest of the time. That’s a bit like the argument a few people have made for Jeff Green – “Look at all those big shots he made! He hit clutch threes against the Celtics and had a game winning dunk on Josh Smith, obviously he’s good.” I’m not saying you fall into that same camp, but it seems like because you can remember Serge playing good defense in some key scenarios its coloring your recollection of the rest of the time he was on the court.

@Bryan
what about carl landry, we had him as well.

@James
i dunno about brooks, thabo was out there on end of game offensive possessions, didnt change lineup against the lakers even though green got steamrolled each game and we dug ourselves a hole. Times when throwing Dj in the game to score may have helped. There are things they see that we dont and probably the opposite as well because we dont deal with players all the time. green played a tons of mins last year, most people thought to many, but brooks didnt.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@James
I think part of your disappointment with Synergy stems from not having access to it yourself. There are many, many categories for defense available, and all of them situational. I had my account for their 30 day trial, and while I was in there looking around I was really impressed with the detail. What I had access to was just a subset of their data. They offer training courses to teach teams how to use their tools, so much of it is rather complicated.
But we’re talking one on one defense, post up defense, transition defense, pick and roll, pick and pop, ball screens, etc… Lots of categories on defense. Justin mentioned two of those that caught his attention. I think you may be unfairly attributing a conclusion based on a summary of interest.
Where Synergy breaks down is answering this type of situation: “Thabo gets graded poor here for one on one defense, however that offensive player wasn’t his main priority and Thabo was the only player who could attempt a close-out, so he gets credited with the defense, but graded poorly for the close-out.” Because such an explanation is not given, you can see the end result in the stat, but that’s why they have the video of the play right there, so someone with a trained eye can form their own conclusion.

That makes sense.

I just keep imagining this team with DeJuan Blair and, well, it makes me very, very sad.

f5alcon :@Jamesim not taking sides about the value of synergy, but specific games where serge did well doesnt mean that as a whole he did.
last year in the first 6 games thabo shot 66% from three, but obviously that didnt hold up the whole season.

I'm not saying he only did well in those certain instances. I'm listing a few key end of game situations down the stretch when he came through with outstanding low post defense when our other guys had gotten abused. Serge wouldn't have been in the game in those instances if he were a poor defender the rest of the time would he? Surely Coach Brooks has more sense than that?

@James

I think part of your disappointment with Synergy stems from not having access to it yourself. There are many, many categories for defense available, and all of them situational. I had my account for their 30 day trial, and while I was in there looking around I was really impressed with the detail. What I had access to was just a subset of their data. They offer training courses to teach teams how to use their tools, so much of it is rather complicated.

But we're talking one on one defense, post up defense, transition defense, pick and roll, pick and pop, ball screens, etc... Lots of categories on defense. Justin mentioned two of those that caught his attention. I think you may be unfairly attributing a conclusion based on a summary of interest.

Where Synergy breaks down is answering this type of situation: "Thabo gets graded poor here for one on one defense, however that offensive player wasn't his main priority and Thabo was the only player who could attempt a close-out, so he gets credited with the defense, but graded poorly for the close-out." Because such an explanation is not given, you can see the end result in the stat, but that's why they have the video of the play right there, so someone with a trained eye can form their own conclusion.

whhhooooohhhh! Discord always follows embarassing defeats. But yessssh!

It figures that I would be wildly busy on a day with good discussion.

Back to my point about Krstic, I think everyone characterized my remarks correctly. By no means is he a starting C on a contending team. I just think people underate his experience and technique on the defensive end.

I also get the impression that Serge Ibaka will need a few good games in a row to get that consistency he developed at the end of last year. It will come back and he will eventually exceed his playoff performances, but it's going to take a few weeks to get him into a rhythm (he's young).

I still don't think he should start at center. But I think he makes sense spliting time between the 4 and 5 as an energy guy (as he does now) and perhaps starting at the 4 at some point later in the season.

Ibaka is a pretty good post defender when he stays focused on his man... as some have pointed out. And I think that (without looking) the synergy data might be skewed a bit by early-season performances and by back-door cuts when Ibaka was attempting a block from the weakside.

Frankly, I don't see anyone else on the roster who is going to be able to put the brakes on guys like Blake Griffin or Zach Randolf or DeJuan Blair this year. We need a guy that can handle that level of athleticism. He's the only one we have.

James :

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@James
I’ve listed several examples of Serge making key defensive stands in critical periods during games when he was in there because the other guys were struggling to contain guys defensively. Not to block their shots or dunk on them but to play solid low post defense on them and he delivered. He wasn’t put in those positions because that was a rarity. That wasn’t the only time he played solid positional defense. He was put in that position because he had demonstrated he was the best option. There is a reason he was in there in game 6 when the buzzer went off and Gasol tipped the ball in. Because he was the best defensive option. Obviously it would have been better if he or Collison would have blocked out but he was our best option at that time and that’s why he was in.

It seems as though there's some selection bias going on here. Because you can recall these key moments where Serge played good post defense, he must have played good post defense for the rest of the time. That's essentially what you were saying - he couldn't have played good post defense in these scenarios unless he played good post defense the rest of the time. That's a bit like the argument a few people have made for Jeff Green - "Look at all those big shots he made! He hit clutch threes against the Celtics and had a game winning dunk on Josh Smith, obviously he's good." I'm not saying you fall into that same camp, but it seems like because you can remember Serge playing good defense in some key scenarios its coloring your recollection of the rest of the time he was on the court.

@James
im not taking sides about the value of synergy, but specific games where serge did well doesnt mean that as a whole he did.

last year in the first 6 games thabo shot 66% from three, but obviously that didnt hold up the whole season.

Some of the things serge needs to fix are very tough to change, like his stone hands, making him catch the ball better is a very tough thing to do, or the fact that he hesitates for a second every time he gets the ball. he could potentially fix those things, so his potential is high, but is it realistic? odds of harden being the more complete package that we need is probably more than serge. Who at this point is nothing more then an energy guy off the bench.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@James
No need to get defensive. You are more than welcome to develop your own grading system based on your own collected data. Kev does a good job grading defense. Kev has a background in basketball, and he freely admits that he grades based upon the defensive principals that he considers to be the best. He doesn’t like switching on all matchups or going under on high ball screens, so if you do that you get a bad grade in his system. It could very well be that our staff requires that we switch onto all matchups and to go under on all high ball screens. Maybe our staff would give guys good grades where Kev would give them poor grades.
Synergy is more than one guy. Synergy is the main company that supplies NBA teams with their data, and it’s up to the team to analyze and conclude. Several teams keep their own set of proprietary stats, but Synergy’s data is accepted by NBA professionals as the standard for delivering video indexed statistics. They just don’t list the stat, they store the video of the play.
I don’t know about Justin, but I data mine for a living. There is too much data going on during the course of an NBA season for one person to adequately measure in their own head how a player performs. Especially to a person who is just a fan of the game. You have to look at the collection as a whole in order to form a valid opinion.
No one here is dogging on Serge. Like I said, we all think he’ll be really good. He’s not there yet, but we have patience. There is nothing wrong with Serge being your favorite player. That’s part of being a fan. Doesn’t matter how good or bad he is, how he fits with the team, how many accolades he gets or what the statistics say – he’s your guy and that’s that. And that’s just fine. But when you take that fanaticism and use it as the basis to claim that your favorite player is better than he actually is… well… that’s where we are right now – with you refuting solid evidence to the contrary of your opinion.
All we are saying is that Serge isn’t there yet, let’s not anoint him king of anything right now. Krstic is currently the better player for our team, and Collison too, in regards to winning. Not next year, or five years from now, but right now.

That's a fair post. I'm not arguing for Serge because he's my favorite player and the point of my previous post wasn't to say anything negative about Kev. It was to point out that his evaluations, just like Synergy's is subjective. They are opinions.

I obviously don't know a whole lot about Synergy but when they are rating Harden as a better defender than Sefalosha and Ibaka as a worse defender than Collison and Krstic, I already don't think much of it. I haven't documented every play of every game obviously but it's not hard to watch a game and see guys making plays or not making plays. I've listed several examples of Serge making key defensive stands in critical periods during games when he was in there because the other guys were struggling to contain guys defensively. Not to block their shots or dunk on them but to play solid low post defense on them and he delivered. He wasn't put in those positions because that was a rarity. That wasn't the only time he played solid positional defense. He was put in that position because he had demonstrated he was the best option. There is a reason he was in there in game 6 when the buzzer went off and Gasol tipped the ball in. Because he was the best defensive option. Obviously it would have been better if he or Collison would have blocked out but he was our best option at that time and that's why he was in.

Mark! :@James
I’m curious to know how your eye has been trained Pro scout? Little league coach? Years on the couch? Just asking.

I'm sure there aren't too many college coaches on this message board. Like most, I'm sure, I've played for 20 years or so and coached kids probably 7 or 8. I'm not the guy in the stands that gives the play by play, yelling at the refs on each whistle and harping on each move the coach makes. I'm also not a Serge guy just because he's makes big blocks and dunks. I watched every game last year and it was obvious to me when he was in there (especially towards the end of the year) because he guarded better than the other postmen for the most part.

I've already listed several examples down the stretch in key moments of games where he made a difference. None of them involved dunks or blocked shots. The Phoenix game was another example where Stoudamire was abusing Collison, Ibaka came in and he didn't score a bucket for about a 6 minutes stretch in the 4th quarter. We put Collison back in with about 3 minutes left. Stoudamire went back on the offensive and led them to a win.

@Mark!
Well, there's a bigger delta between Serge and Kevin Garnett than between Harden and Kobe, so yep :)

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Well done Jax. Very well put.

@Sammy
That was the point I tried to make earlier. Its not just picking and choosing what to believe based on what suits you, its choosing what to believe based on logic. If you (James) can provide a logical reason to ignore the Synergy data on Serge's post up defense, I'm all ears. I can't think of one, and therefore believe that data is valid.

Speaking of, where is Kev?

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Well said. I've voiced my concerns with Kev's grading system before, but my objections were all things he's considered and decided to ignore for one reason or another. No way I can fault him for that since he has his reasons, even if I disagree with them.

I also agree Ibaka has more POTENTIAL than Harden, so long as we're defining POTENTIAL as the gap between actual currently possessed skill and whatever possibilities my imagination can dream up.

@James

No need to get defensive. You are more than welcome to develop your own grading system based on your own collected data. Kev does a good job grading defense. Kev has a background in basketball, and he freely admits that he grades based upon the defensive principals that he considers to be the best. He doesn't like switching on all matchups or going under on high ball screens, so if you do that you get a bad grade in his system. It could very well be that our staff requires that we switch onto all matchups and to go under on all high ball screens. Maybe our staff would give guys good grades where Kev would give them poor grades.

Synergy is more than one guy. Synergy is the main company that supplies NBA teams with their data, and it's up to the team to analyze and conclude. Several teams keep their own set of proprietary stats, but Synergy's data is accepted by NBA professionals as the standard for delivering video indexed statistics. They just don't list the stat, they store the video of the play.

I don't know about Justin, but I data mine for a living. There is too much data going on during the course of an NBA season for one person to adequately measure in their own head how a player performs. Especially to a person who is just a fan of the game. You have to look at the collection as a whole in order to form a valid opinion.

No one here is dogging on Serge. Like I said, we all think he'll be really good. He's not there yet, but we have patience. There is nothing wrong with Serge being your favorite player. That's part of being a fan. Doesn't matter how good or bad he is, how he fits with the team, how many accolades he gets or what the statistics say - he's your guy and that's that. And that's just fine. But when you take that fanaticism and use it as the basis to claim that your favorite player is better than he actually is... well... that's where we are right now - with you refuting solid evidence to the contrary of your opinion.

All we are saying is that Serge isn't there yet, let's not anoint him king of anything right now. Krstic is currently the better player for our team, and Collison too, in regards to winning. Not next year, or five years from now, but right now.

@James

I'm curious to know how your eye has been trained :) Pro scout? Little league coach? Years on the couch? Just asking.

@James
Give me a cogent argument for why we should distrust the Synergy post up defense ratings. Justin's provided a reasonable hypothesis for why Sef's spot-up shooting defense numbers are artificially low. When you make this a game of "you can believe what you want to, I'll believe what I want to because the evidence is worthless," you're not gonna get anything more than people shouting past each other.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@James
You can be that way if you want. But if you want someone to take your opinion seriously, its best if it’s formed from more than your untrained eye.

Untrained according to who? Justin? I guess you can pick and choose which Synergy ratings you want to believe based on what suites your bias? That makes sense.

I even disagreed with the guy that gave the grades on here half the time and he was super detailed. I know that's really the only grading system out there but it's kind of a blind faith in it.

@James

You can be that way if you want. But if you want someone to take your opinion seriously, its best if it's formed from more than your untrained eye.

James :

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@JamesSynergy isn’t wrong, they’re just reporting data. It’s up to the educated individual to make conclusions. It is an aid to the eye test, and often if you don’t have a trained eye, you miss important things. Synergy is there so the trained eye can confirm or deny their own suspicions. When Synergy offers data that makes you draw a conclusion that is opposite of your eye test it is an indication that you need to pay more attention to other aspects of the game that you are missing.We all know Serge has the athleticism and motor to be a great player. We all want him to be that great player. If we’re patient enough, he’ll get there. He’s just not there yet, and there’s nothing wrong with that, it’s to be expected.

So Harden is a better defender than Sef. Thanks for clearing that up.

Sorry, I just can't take a grading system where I don't know how they graded what as gospel. It would be interesting to see them grade one game or even one quarter to know how they broke it down. I just find it hard to believe that a guy could pay attention to every guy, in every minute of every game in a year and give them a detailed, accurate grade. I don't know how a computer could do that either.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@James
Synergy isn’t wrong, they’re just reporting data. It’s up to the educated individual to make conclusions. It is an aid to the eye test, and often if you don’t have a trained eye, you miss important things. Synergy is there so the trained eye can confirm or deny their own suspicions. When Synergy offers data that makes you draw a conclusion that is opposite of your eye test it is an indication that you need to pay more attention to other aspects of the game that you are missing.
We all know Serge has the athleticism and motor to be a great player. We all want him to be that great player. If we’re patient enough, he’ll get there. He’s just not there yet, and there’s nothing wrong with that, it’s to be expected.

So Harden is a better defender than Sef. Thanks for clearing that up.

@SunTzu 76

Good point about Ibaka's improvements. He did learn english, the NBA games, and Brook's system. So judging him from last year's data can be misleading.

@James

Synergy isn't wrong, they're just reporting data. It's up to the educated individual to make conclusions. It is an aid to the eye test, and often if you don't have a trained eye, you miss important things. Synergy is there so the trained eye can confirm or deny their own suspicions. When Synergy offers data that makes you draw a conclusion that is opposite of your eye test it is an indication that you need to pay more attention to other aspects of the game that you are missing.

We all know Serge has the athleticism and motor to be a great player. We all want him to be that great player. If we're patient enough, he'll get there. He's just not there yet, and there's nothing wrong with that, it's to be expected.