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Tuesday Bolts – 10.5.10

Scott Carefoot of The Basketball Jones ranks the top 10 point guards: “7. Russell Westbrook – After his 2008-09 rookie season, a lot of people wondered whether Westbrook would be better-suited as a two-guard in the NBA. Nobody is wondering about that after he increased his assists per game from 5.3 to 8.0 last season. Westbrook is big and fast and uses those attributes to drive aggressively and get to the free throw line five times per game. He’s smart to do that because he still has a lot of work to do on hitting outside shots. He also needs to focus more on the defensive end, where his play doesn’t quite live up to his reputation just yet.”

John Hollinger projects the Thunder roster and shares thoughts every player: “At this point, shooting is the only thing keeping Westbrook from being a perennial All-Star. Otherwise, he’s awesome: He ranked third at his position in usage rate and rebound rate, eighth in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and is one of the best defenders at his position. Even his point guard credentials, often chided by scouts, are vastly improved — he climbed to 13th in pure point rating and had a solid assist ratio.”

Darnell Mayberry on how Cole Aldrich fits: “For now, it appears the most likely route for Aldrich will be a similar one taken by Ibaka during his rookie year. Ibaka played sparingly in much of the first month before earning more time as the season progressed. But Ibaka had proven by last season’s open scrimmage that he possessed natural abilities that Brooks couldn’t afford to keep off the floor. In Aldrich’s case, his ticket to court time might be in his savvy.”

The Basketball Prospectus superbook is out and like last year, I’m happy to say I made a small contribution.

Chris Silva looking at the four camp invites: “Millsap came here wired like the rest of the Thunder in that he enjoys the defensive end. At 6-5, he grabbed 9.5 rebounds per game as a junior at UAB. Asked how he did it, Millsap simply stated that he has a nose for the ball and that he loves attacking the boards. Defensively, Millsap said he tries to pattern himself after players like Thabo Sefolosha, Ron Artest and Luc Richard Mba a Moute. And Millsap said he’s relying on his defense to make a name for himself at camp.”

It’s 2K11 day. Yay.

Great note from Mayberry on yesterday’s practice: “Some near fireworks nearly went off when Westbrook and Ibaka almost went at it during the mini-games. Ibaka appeared to take exception to what he deemed a cheap shot by Westbrook during a fastbreak. Ibaka began yelling at Westbrook on his way back down on offense after taking the ball out. It looked like the two were just horsing around, jawing back and forth, until Ibaka set a screen on Westbrook with bad intent. Ibaka raised his arms near Westbrook’s head, and Westbrook then took exception, barking at Ibaka to not elbow him. The sequence clearly showed how these guys can be great friends off the court but are all business on the court. Westbrook and Ibaka have bonded since Ibaka arrived last season. Westbrook was a mentor of sorts to Ibaka last year. But that all went out the window for a brief moment. And Brooks will tell you that competitive fire is a good thing to see on the practice floor.”

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"We are a defensive team and we have to score off our defense," Brooks said. "That's what we always talk about and that's how we have to be built. With that being said, offense can improve. It can improve with just the trust factor of each other. We have terrific playmakers and they just have to continue to make plays and make the right plays."

It really sounds like nothing is being changed on offense. Such a sad thing. Transition opportunities are not going to be there as much in the playoffs. Can't contend without knowing how to score in the half court.

I'm getting a little worried about the offense. If turnovers and screens are being stressed that might mean they assume the offense is fine and it just needs minor tweaks.

Anybody listen to Mayberry with David Locke?
http://blog.newsok.com/thunderrumblings/2010/10/05...
Any summary or comments from it?

Brooks: "Serge, he can play 4 and 5"

yeah... use with some at both... but which one are you going to put him at more long-term and will it be the best choice?

Versatility is good but folks regularly debate the Green issue and more often than not come to the view that his main position use is weaker than his minor one. The same has been said off and on with Collison his whole career.

Statements like "position doesn't matter" and summaries of statements like "not much will be different" of offense don't suggest to me that analytics are being applied to the max. It sounds a bit casual. Maybe it is presented more casually to the media than they really take it but it still sounds too casual, too simple to me. Real world basketball is messy and stats don't capture all of it or exactly but you round a lot of stuff off into simple choices and postures and I do not think you are giving yourself the max chance to beat all 29 other teams.

Kind of interested to see how Monroe looks tonight.

"Some near fireworks nearly went off when Westbrook and Ibaka almost went at it during the mini-games."

I'm not sure it's a good idea for anyone fond of breathing to get crossways with Ibaka. But then again, this is Russell Westbrook we're talking about. The last time he backed down from someone was probably four or five previous lives ago. I'm sure he and Russ wouldn't actually get into it, but I'm glad they're on the same team. I keep getting that image in my head of Ibaka face-to-face with Odom, or whoever it was, in that great "Here Comes the Boom" video. All Serge did was stare, as if to say, "Do you realize how close you are to the end of your life?"

all this meanness and etan thomas isnt even on the team to get in fistfights with teammates. They will be fine its like fighting with a sibling, they are a family even if they are playing rough

@Mark!

Thanks for the SCHOENE Accuracy By Category. Maybe I under represented the adjustment process but those correlations are consistent with my statement of "substantial room for variance", in fact, probably more than I expected.

@Mark!

Denver at 3rd in the West is a reasonable prediction assuming their normal degree of disfunction, but it seems like it's going to be worse.

If I had to choose between Utah or Denver missing the playoffs this year, I'd pick Denver to miss the cut right now.

Crow :
Schoene has Golden State at 4th seed?? They’ll be better but I can’t see them going that high. Even above .500 would be a strong movement.
Any system that projects the future largely or entirely off the past stats of players in atomized separateness will have substantial room for variance when they play as lineups / teams or “molecules” or “organisms”.

Quite a bit of work goes into adjusting the individual projections within the context of their team. Predictable, it's better at predicting team offense than team defense.

Here's a table from the Prospectus:

SCHOENE Accuracy By Category, With Minutes

Offense
eFG% - OR% - FTM/FGA - TO%
Correlation to actual: 0.82 - 0.33 - 0.58 - 0.58
Correlation w/ minutes: 0.79 - 0.51 - 0.69 - 0.57

Defense
eFG% - DR% - FTM/FGA - TO%
Correlation to actual: 0.49 - 0.49 - 0.63 - 0.55
Correlation w/ minutes: 0.50 - 0.60 - 0.53 - 0.69

Anyway, I agree the Golden State projection is way out of left field. Probably not a good candidate for home court in the playoffs, but I do think they're a good candidate to fill in the hole in the West left by Phoenix (assuming you don't like this to make it back this season.)

New Orleans is better candidate IMO.

The other hole in the playoffs is Utah. They're weaker this season, but I'll believe that they won't make it when I see it.

This sounds like good news:
Ibaka’s screens have become a talking point and a part of the reason he’s starting at center in Wednesday’s opener in place of the injured Nenad Krstic. “He’s been setting some great picks,” Brooks said. “We’ve been emphasizing it and our guards are feeling it, which is good. It’s important that we do. One of the things going into camp that we were focused on was setting better screens, and Serge has been doing a great job.”

Sounds like training camp is getting testy...
James Harden fell to the floor at the top of the key, laying there in pain as play continued.

Before rising to his feet, the second-year shooting guard chewed out Serge Ibaka for setting a hard screen that Harden thought was dirty. Ibaka tried to apologize while offering a helping hand. Harden coldly rejected the offer and the hand.

This is what the final few days of Thunder training camp has turned players into, a fierce and fiery team sick of two-a-days, defensive drills and bone-crushing screens.

“We’re ready to see a new team,” said Thunder coach Scott Brooks. “Our guys are ready. When it starts to get a little chippy like it has been the last couple of days, that’s a sign that you need some competition other than your own team.”

Marv Albert is calling the Heat-Pistons game tonight. Chances that Friday's match takes on a much more competitive tone just skyrocketed.

I think you are being optimistic about our offensive development.

I think we'll continue to see a lot of Durant ISO from the top of the key and a lot of Westbrook trying to create off (erratic) drives into the paint.

Maybe Durant has improved as a playmaker and he'll have fewer turnovers and more assists off the ISO playcall.

Maybe Westbrook has developed offensively and will convert points at a more efficient percentage.

Both of those may be true, and I expect our offense to improve over the season. However, I won't mistake those developments as results of an increased emphasis on offense.

I'll believe any improvement on offense (that doesn't stem from individual improvement) when I see it. I don't expect to.

Half-court offense is generally weaker than fast break efficiency. The Thunder had an eFG% of 54% in the first 10 seconds of the clock (which is fast breaks and its cousin "early offense") compared to about 46% after that. That is a big difference compared to the size of the difference between being a good and average defense overall. If the defense is facing less early shots (they will still face some) it will help their defensive efficiency.

DeWayne :
Maybe they will emphasize offense during the season, once defense becomes almost second nature.

Yeah, I think you are right. That is probably their general approach. Not enough for me, but that is probably the approach being used- to retain their strength first. It would be big news if they don't do that.

guys, I think the reigning NBA Coach of the Year knows we have to score points. ;)

@Greg
i agree, but if it did happen it would be brooks fault.

@justin
yeah i dont think it will be an issue until we reach the finals then the offense really will need to be on, esp against a team with firepower like the heat.

@Greg
good offense limits fastbreaks for opponents.

f5alcon :@Steve Hhe was coach of the year, that award is cursed. he will be fired eventually, probably not this season, but lets say we have 3 more years of first rd playoff exits because of not scoring enough points.

Kevin Durant isn't Tracy McGrady. I don't think we'll have to worry about three consecutive first-round exits, personally.

@justin
I'm not sure I agree with your logic there. Good defense can create good offense (mostly in the form of turnovers and fast breaks). I'm not sure how good offense creates good defense, ask Golden State though.

Maybe they will emphasize offense during the season, once defense becomes almost second nature.

They started allowing oop passes later in the season, maybe they will open the offense up a little more if the team cuts turnovers down and runs the sets they already have to perfection.

I hope that if I say "maybe they will" then.. maybe they will.

@f5alcon

I think Brooks will be on the hot seat with one more first round exit, unless it's due to injuries or stuff out of the team's control. If the team does not progress further I think there will be an acquisition next offseason and that will be Brooks' last chance to advance.

It's a decent possibility that we get homecourt for a round this year, though.

@Steve H
he was coach of the year, that award is cursed. he will be fired eventually, probably not this season, but lets say we have 3 more years of first rd playoff exits because of not scoring enough points.

Saying offense will take care of itself as long as they focus on defense is the same as saying defense will take care of itself as long as they focus on offense. Neither is true. Defense may be more important but still... without an elite anchor in the middle I don't think we can have a dominant enough defense to contend without a much better offense.

Schoene has Golden State at 4th seed?? They'll be better but I can't see them going that high. Even above .500 would be a strong movement.

Any system that projects the future largely or entirely off the past stats of players in atomized separateness will have substantial room for variance when they play as lineups / teams or "molecules" or "organisms".

If we're able to limit turnovers and everything else remains equal that alone should make the team a top 10 offense. I think it has to be a little better than that, though.

It's annoying that we're not putting emphasis on offense at all. Real annoying.

f5alcon :well if we struggle again on offense and it leads to us not performing in the playoffs brooks will get fired

If Brooks has an affair with Bennett's wife, or rapes Bennett's dog, he will get fired. Short of that, he will be around for at least the next couple of years.

well if we struggle again on offense and it leads to us not performing in the playoffs brooks will get fired

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Yeah, that's more or less what it's sounded like Brooks' strategy would be. I think we're going to have to be content with our lack of any offensive system and hope that individual growth will be enough to get us to an adequate level on that end. I'm not exactly optimistic that'll happen, but I'm willing to give it a shot, at least this year.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I think Justin's head is about to explode..

Ibaka is not a bad defender. If you're a bad defender, like D.J. White for example, you don't get minutes on the Thunder. Serge had some miscues last year, as all rookies will, but he moves his feet really well, has excellent length, and is able to hold his position in the paint.

Aldrich will eventually challenge Ibaka for the starting spot at center, but he's too green right now. Ibaka got really important minutes last year, especially in the playoffs, he's way ahead in terms of development. They'll have a good battle at training camp next year.

To continue a topic that Crow and Sammy and I were tossing around yesterday...

http://blog.newsok.com/thunderrumblings/2010/10/05...

From Darnell's Thunder Rumblings Blog today:

I spoke with Brooks today about the team’s offense, specifically what we can expect to see different this year that we didn’t see last year. I’ll have a story up on NewsOK.com later today and in Wednesday’s paper. But the offensive end is something I’ve grown more and more curious about because, for all the team’s struggles last year on that end, the offense has again taken a backseat to defense in training camp this year. It’ll be interesting to see how that translates into the regular season. There is a collective belief that the offense will take care of itself as long as the defense remains a staple. And Brooks essentially said not much will be different. He has his areas of focus, which I’ll outline in my story, but limiting turnovers is Brooks’ biggest point of emphasis.

Q&A with Byron Mullens:
You had a three-hour session today.

"It's tough, but we're warriors and this is what we're trained to do.

Warrior isn't the first thing that comes to mind when describing Lord Byron.

@James
well brooks did say for some 5s and some 4s, so sounds like he wont make serge guard the stronger centers

Apparently the Cavs went after Larry Bird before contacting Byron Scott.

@James
There's been a lot of talk on the board about Brooks focusing on offense this off-season, but I also want to see him show some flexibility with lineups that he didn't last year. Last year, I think flexibility was not necessarily a good thing -- when you've got a core almost entirely made up of rookies and sophs the last thing they need is to be looking over their shoulders. I think a set rotation for players like Ibaka and Harden was important.

This year, though, is different. These guys are a little more grown up now, and I think if Brooks is going to say "those positions really don't matter", then he should coach like it. At the 2, 4, and 5, we really have the depth to go night-to-night based on matchups. The question is whether Brooks will trust his players enough to go more with the matchups this year and risk hurting feelings from time to time.

“It doesn’t matter, it’s the same thing as is Kevin a 2 or a 3, is Thabo a 2?” Brooks said. “I mean, those positions really don’t matter. Whichever we feel the best matchup for him is…but Serge, he can play 4 and 5. He’s quick enough to guard some of the 4s and he’s strong enough to guard some of the 5s. That’s what makes our big man unit pretty good, because each man brings in something different and Serge can guard either 4s or 5s. I feel comfortable with him.”

@James

Just like I was hoping! Only thing still missing is Harden in the starting 5 instead of Sef. Ibaka should be starting though. He's our best big.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IBAKA TO START
Date: 10/5/10 Time: 1:07 p.m.

Head coach Scott Brooks said after Tuesday’s practice that forward Serge Ibaka will get the start in tomorrow’s preseason opener against the Charlotte Bobcats, joining guards Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha and forwards Kevin Durant and Jeff Green; Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison are recovering from injuries and will not play.

“Serge is one of our players that’s not a finished product,” Brooks said. “He’s going to get better every game, every month, every year and this is an opportunity to get out there and play with the starting unit. He has a tendency to play a little fast and we’re going to try to slow him down a little bit because he’s excited. He wants to do well but he has to take it down a level but also keep that intensity on the defensive end. Offensively, you’ve got to slow it down a little bit. Defensively you’ve got to always be ready to go and he is.”

Ibaka has continued to make strides on the defensive end as well as with his midrange jumper, which we got a taste of during Friday’s Open Practice scrimmage. Last season, Ibaka played with an energetic, physical style of play that impressed both teammates and coaches, which is something they’re hoping to see more of this season.

Brooks said that a focal point heading into training camp has been the need to set better, harder screens, and Ibaka has been a model of consistency in that area, although that praise extended to all the big men in camp.

“He sets some great picks,” Brooks said. “We’ve been emphasizing it and our guards have been feeling it, which is good. It’s important that we do.”

And as far as whether Ibaka is most useful as a power forward or center, Brooks said it’s not fair to peg players at certain positions.

“It doesn’t matter, it’s the same thing as is Kevin a 2 or a 3, is Thabo a 2?" Brooks said. "I mean, those positions really don’t matter. Whichever we feel the best matchup for him is…but Serge, he can play 4 and 5. He’s quick enough to guard some of the 4s and he’s strong enough to guard some of the 5s. That’s what makes our big man unit pretty good, because each man brings in something different and Serge can guard either 4s or 5s. I feel comfortable with him.”

TIME CHANGE
Tomorrow’s tip-off against the Bobcats has been changed to 7:30 p.m. and can be heard on WWLS.

@DizzyDai
A second unit with Thabo and Millsap in the game at the same time = some really fascinating offense.

@Greg

If I were Green I'd take exception to Millsap. No needs to touch Durant's back up minutes other than Uncle Jeff.

@J.G.
Yes. I do appreciate that point of view. I'm just worried it will carry over elsewhere.

@J.G.
Maybe Jeff Green should take exception to another player, or vice versa.

Strange how before Ibaka hurt his knee in summer league they wanted him to continue coming off the bench bad enough that they started Mullens over him? Or maybe the decision had more to do with getting Mullens the most minutes possible. If that's the case, why was DJ White starting over Ibaka? Probably looking too much into it, considering it was summer league.

@DizzyDai
No, no, no. Taking exception to one another in practice is a great thing that you should love. That means there's intensity in practice and both players are in the moment.

That's a great sign this early in the season.

@f5alcon

I've only had one and I think it was an isolated thing. I was controlling Westbrook and drew a blocking foul, the game froze as it was transitioning to the free throws. I've been unable to reproduce the bug so I don't think it's a big deal.

I like the fact that Ibaka is getting the nod to start, but eventually I still think Cole will win the starting spot.

I dislike that Westbrook and Ibaka were "taking exception" to each other in yesterday's practice.

Maybe Ibaka's showing stuff in camp that we haven't seen; he'll have to be incredibly improved to be starting regular season games at C, IMO.