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Tuesday Bolts – 10.19.10

The Thunder beat the Spurs 111-102 last night behind 29 from Kevin Durant and 27 from Jeff Green. The starters scored 103 of OKC’s 111 points. The Thunder used a big fourth quarter to win, but it’s not as good as it seems as San Antonio wasn’t playing as many regulars as OKC was. Westbrook finished with 17 points and nine assists and was good overall. And James Harden was excellent, scoring 18 points on six shots and going 3-3 from downtown, along with five rebounds and four assists.

David Aldridge on NBA.com referenced that he thinks Jeff Green could still have an extension coming: “Green could certainly argue he deserves a new deal after averaging 15.1 points and six rebounds a game last season for the emerging Thunder. And Green’s agent, David Falk, has a way of persuading teams to see things his client’s way, so Green’s status may change by the deadline. Oklahoma City’s plan has been to keep its powder dry until its young core group came on line for new deals. But the next extension in OKC will certainly go to guard Russell Westbrook, not Green. And the Thunder is not likely to break the bank for many others on owner Clay Bennett’s watch, which means hard choices on the rest of the roster.”

I wrote a little on the 2007 class not getting extensions, and specifically about Green.

Also, here’s Basketball Reference’s preview with a small contribution from me.

Darnell Mayberry wrote on it and talked to Scott Brooks about the poor transition defense from last night: “It was pathetic,” said Thunder coach Scott Brooks. “It’s something that we’re not proud of. They did a great job of really running out and scoring off of our misses. The first part of our transition defense is getting a good shot. We have to be able to consistently get a good shot every time down court so we have good floor balance and can get back in transition.”

Durant picked up a “respect for the game” technical last night for throwing his arms when he was unhappy with a generous continuation call. Then Russell Westbrook picked one up as well, but his wasn’t very clear as to why. It’s the first two technicals the Thunder’s been hit with this preseason.

Mayberry’s thoughts: “It was hard to not be impressed with Jeff Green tonight. He dominated the Spurs from the left block. Brooks made it a point to post up Green against Garrett Temple, Richard Jefferson and Matt Bonner. Green bullied all three and earned trips to the free throw line or 3-point plays. And the versatility that we hear so much about when it comes to Green became evident when he was able to take DeJuan Blair out to the perimeter whenever Blair came in. Green didn’t hit any 3s tonight, but just pulling the Spurs’ big away from the basket is beneficial. Also, when Green can get into a rhythm with touches down low and trips to the foul line, he is capable of putting together a monster game.”

The Thunder’s on the cover of this year’s Sports Illustrated preview issue. It features Kevin Durant and… Thabo and Nenad?

In terms of fantasy, this writer from ESPN loves Westbrook and Ibaka: “Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder: As one of the league’s quickest, most explosive point guards, I loved Westbrook last season and love him even more this season. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he turned himself into a top-20 fantasy player by season’s end. Serge Ibaka, C, Thunder: Inexperienced but undeniably talented, Ibaka averaged 8.1 points, 6.2 boards and 1.8 blocks in just 20.3 minutes per game after the All-Star break last season. As one of the more dominant shot-blockers in the league, Ibaka is one of my favorite late-round targets (along with JaVale McGee).”

Ziller previews the Thunder: “First and foremost, Westbrook must be more efficient. When a player controls as much of the offense as Westbrook does (nearly 26 percent of the offense when he’s in the game), he’s got to execute more efficiently than, say, Baron Davis. Westbrook shot just 44 percent on two-pointers and a ghastly 22 percent on threes last season. He became a much better playmaker in his second season (despite still-high turnover totals) and excels at getting to the rim. But he still takes too many long jumpers considering his lagging skill there. When every possession counts in the throes of a tight playoff series, you can’t be wasting attempts on a Westbrook 20-footer. He needs to either defer to Durant more frequently, or develop his jumper.”

Ken Berger of CBS Sports preview the Northwest Division and the Thunder: X-Factor: “Cole Aldrich. In yet another shrewd move, Presti packaged the 21st and 26th picks and sent them to cost-cutting New Orleans specifically to get Aldrich, who as a Kansas product will be more polished than most rookies. Not much can be expected offensively, but Aldrich could be a factor as a shot-blocker and rebounder, something the Thunder need to fortify their weak front court.”

Thanks for all the kind words about the preview. Hopefully next year it’ll be even better.

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Thanks, Crow. I actually find those clutch numbers pretty mind boggling, especially considering the perceived trajectory of their careers.

Green's outside clutch shot FG% for his career went 50% for the rookie season, then 55%, then 45%.

Durant's 54%, 32% and then 37%.

Westbrook 37% then 23%.

Krstic and Collison were light on outside clutch shot frequency. Harden was in-between but I decided to call that low given that Green took about 50% more and Harden played light minutes this season. Those things might change this season and might make Harden the best with significant numbers in the future.

Yes Green is the highest among those taking a good rate of clutch shots.

The rank from best to worst overall on clutch outside shots effective FG% is Harden, Krstic and Collison tied at .500 eFG% then Green at 45%, Durant at 37%, Ibaka 33%, Westbrook 23% and Thabo 17%.

So is Green our best outside clutch shooter among players with significant numbers to judge?

Westbrook has to stop falling apart as a passer / ball-handler in the clutch. Durant and Harden probably need to rise up to help with the issue but the ball is mainly in Westbrook's hands.

Overall the players are pretty different in the clutch and that might deserve different coaching of that time. Some of this is probably caused by sample size but you could check multi-year to partly address that.

Westbrook and Durant try to offset the rebounding losses by others. Green, Krstic and Collison try to offset the shooting losses by others.

Nobody in this group is there to pick it up on passing for shots that the guys can make then.

Kristic actually improved on everything in the clutch except for a decline in rebounding.

Collison fell modestly on almost everything (ball-handling fell significantly) besides shooting. Inside shooting had no change and he actually improved outside shooting.

Thabo's inside shot was the same but the outside shot fell massively. Passing and ball-handling were close to the same. Rebounding down modestly.

Most players shoot worse in the clutch (last 5 minutes, game close) than on average. But what about their rebounding and passing / ball-handling? I don't think I've ever checked before. I'll throw in an outside / in shooting split for free too.

Durant improved on both rebounding and ball handling significantly. Passing fell to a very low level. On shooting both the inside and outside game fell significantly.

Green has about the same on clutch rebounding compared to overall performance but fell on passing / ball-handling. On shooting it fell inside but actually improved outside.

Westbrook improved in the clutch on rebounding significantly but fell on passing / ball-handling by a massive amount. Both the inside and outside shooting fell significantly.

Harden was the same as a shooter inside and outside regular time or clutch. Same on rebounding, much less passing and much worse ball-handling shown in the clutch though.

Unless the players change enough to change the past trends.

Green SF and Ibaka PF arguably has 2 players at their better defensive spots and 1-2 at their better offensive spots (conventional wisdom has Green better at SF on offense, the stats say better at PF on offense). Most of this time was probably without Durant but perhaps more against subs. If you use Green - Ibaka this is the better way, at least based on over 600 minutes of data last season and 50-100 in pre-season.

Looking at lineups used over 10 minutes last season (and ignoring those under 10 minutes for time) the pairing of Green SF and Ibaka PF was on average -0.5 per 48 minutes on raw team +/- while Green PF and Ibaka C was -6.5 per 48 minutes on raw team +/-.

It appears from play by play, as best I can tell, that Green = Ibaka last night was -10 until the final 5 minutes where they went +13.

Against CSKA Green - Ibaka was -16. Against the Griz, Ibaka - Green might have been -15 but I think it was Green SF and Ibaka PF. Against Miami they were -7. Against the Bobcats they were -3 but much of that time was again Green SF and Ibaka PF.

That is a pretty bad run for that pairing. But did they know or will they pay attention to it?

FYI Looking forward to s video preview next year with Mike Rowe commentary.

justin : Jeff Green is better suited to the bench anyway.

For the 1032nd time. : )

Rotations can be staggered in a way to minimize the time spent without one of Harden or Durant on the court (two best shooters). Harden performs so much better with the starters, if his performance continues during the regular season I'd be irritated if the change wasn't made. Jeff Green is better suited to the bench anyway.

One compelling reason to have Krstic running with the 2nd group is his offense. His jumper could be a big help to the 2nd groups offense. He may be that much more effective offensively against backup centers. Especially if Harden eventually moves out of the 2nd group and they lose his offense. That would leave the 2nd unit looking something like this...

Maynor
Harden or Sef
Durant or Green
Collison or Ibaka
Krstic

If I remember correctly Durant stayed in the longest and played awhile with the 2nd group and then Green subs in for him about half way through. I have to say Sef isn't near as exciting guarding a backup 2 with the 2nd unit because he doesn't provide much offense. It's almost a waste. I think I still like Harden coming off the bench getting the majority of his time helping the 2nd unit and then just let him stay in during crunch time at the end of games.

Joe :@justinAccording to Darnell, Green was also defended by Blair.

In the start of the game, a bit. Green really got it going against the smaller defenders, though.

Sammy :Harden’s preseason line has been beastly.54 FG% / 63 3p%(!) / 91 FT%4.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 3.2 SPG, 15.4 PPG
Man I hope this is a sign that he’s improved as much as I hope he has.

Yeah he's been the huge bright spot, especially going up against other team's starters more of the time. Obviously he isn't going to continue shooting 60% from 3PT range but his overall play has been excellent...

I'm am so excited by Harden's number's this pre-season. He's starting to look like a real second scoring option, and a regular quadruple nickel threat. Westbrook/Harden/Durant is looking like it could be the best backcourt in the NBA for a long time.

On another note. I've got an extra ticket to the pre-season game Thursday night. Anybody interested in catching a game? Drop me a message at osanowhoa@hotmail.com

Think of it this way, we had 3 starters who were available, 2 of whom were playing out of position, and it's PRESEASON...

Geez, you guys are so starved for B-ball you'll overanalyze anything...

Think of it this way. Nearly every player player for OKC had a negative +/- until the 4th quarter when Pop started playing his scrubs.

Joe :@justinAccording to Darnell, Green was also defended by Blair.

Yes, but mainly in the 1st. The only reason we won that game is because Pop decided to rest his guys.

Video of KD (and James Harden) for Skullcandy headphones.

http://bit.ly/c5otkG

@Sammy
He really deserves the starting spot, move green to the bench and start collison at the 4.

@justin
According to Darnell, Green was also defended by Blair.

@justin
This is why he shouldnt start, against backup 4s he would be much better and they are not the offensive threat usually, so his defense is less of a liability.

Harden's preseason line has been beastly.
54 FG% / 63 3p%(!) / 91 FT%
4.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 3.2 SPG, 15.4 PPG

Man I hope this is a sign that he's improved as much as I hope he has.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

Yeah he was great last year on MSG, too. He should really do the color.

I expect Green to play well if he's starting at SF tonight.

One of Darnell's bullet points:

I sat next to Malik Rose tonight and got even more excited about his addition to the FOX Sports Oklahoma studio crew. Rose broke down a few plays to me with so much precision that I instantly became smarter about the game. Or at least I felt smarter. There were plays Rose called out, to no one in particular, before they happened. I’m telling you, it will be an absolute joy to listen to Rose break down the Thunder at halftime and after the games this season. Check back for a Q&A with Rose to get his thoughts on the Thunder and his new television career.

------------

Just reminded me that I'm excite that Rose is joining the squad.

This is probably old news:

But late last night, I saw a commercial featuring Durant for ESPN Fantasy Basketball. Anybody seen this?

Bryan :I just love how Jeff Green abuses the Spurs (proving I was too quick to lose hope this week) and all anyone can say is “it was against scrubs.”
And, GO!!!

It's too bad he can't get defended by Matt Bonner, Richard Jefferson, or Garrett Temple every game... he is a strong offensive player when he is going against guys same size or smaller.

Ziler's wrong: disappointment will not "spread like sarin" in OKC because of one bad stretch of games by the Thunder. There's not a confidence bubble that's going to pop when things go a little bit wrong. That sounds like a silly stereotype about smalltown America! OKC trusts the ownership, the management, the coaches and the players for the long term.

Also Aldridge's snide remark about Clay Bennett not breaking the bank is misguided. The Thunder won't have to break the bank to pay their core players because they are making money hand over fist. They ran a profit of 13 million dollars in 2008-09, in a recession, with an awful team. Imagine what kind of money they made last year, the playoff revenue alone was around 9 million for the 3 home games. OKC franchise may have made $25 or $30 million dollars last year. We'll find out in December when the Forbes franchise value #'s come out.

We're not going to overpay players, especially with labor strife in the horizon, but secondary guys like Ibaka, Green and Harden will definitely be offered the market rate. No bank breaking required.

I think more players than just K.D. are sitting out tonight.

I hope I can watch Nenad and Thabo playing as starters when the season begins.

How about some rumor-mongering? OKC going to Denver tonight, who need to trade their small forward. OKC will be sitting Durant, which will open up space for Uncle Jeff to play extended minutes at the 3. We all agree that Green is better at the 3 than the 4. Is OKC showcasing Green to entice a trade? What if Denver likes what it sees out of Green at the 3?

Certainly OKC won't be taking Carmelo, but as a trade partner with Denver, we make a lot of sense. We have a young forward in Green who would look good as a permanent '3', draft picks, expiring contracts, etc. Could we pick up Nene, Anderson (if healthy), or even Billups as veterans to help the young core? Could we pick up a better option at PF or C from another team in the swap?

Is this what is happening tonight? Probably not, but that's why it's fun to talk about.

Thabo and Nenad! Glad to see it - and after hearing that KD wouldn't be on the cover w/o some teammates, I makes me happy that he's getting everyone involved in the publicity.

I just love how Jeff Green abuses the Spurs (proving I was too quick to lose hope this week) and all anyone can say is "it was against scrubs."

And, GO!!!

@andrew
That was my first thought too.

@andrew
I love it. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but I appreciate those guys getting some pub, too. Would have been even cooler to have the whole starting five, but I guess they wanted our paralell to Miami's Big Three. ;)

not sure if this has been posted already but Thabo and Nenad? Really?

http://twitpic.com/2z0wrm

anyone else notice the tattoo on KD's wrist? just a small '35'. i'm not sure how long he has had it, but I never noticed until before now.