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On second look #1s and #2s aren't really much different in star-solid-role player outcomes than 3-5, so if you have 4 top 5 picks as the Thunder do you might expect about 2.4 stars, 1.2 solid players and 0.4 role players.

If they end up with 3 stars, 1 solid they are clearly above average in returns on investment.

2 stars, 2 solid would be a bit below average return.

It probably won't go lower than that but it will be something to reflect on again next spring /summer.

KD as a #2 pick was purposely kept outside this set. The set picked from 3 to 5 in the draft is RW, JH and JG.

The star vs solid count might be more settled after this season. I expect it will for me.

People probably vary widely on their split right at the moment. Maybe they still will after this season but I think it will be a bit easier to see who is the outlier in those assessments.

Crow :
If you have 3 #3-5 picks, “average” performance would be a yield of 2 stars and 1 solid guy. 3 stars and you are better than average. Of course the megawattage of the stars matters for how well you did.

If that's the case, I can see KD and Russ as the 2 stars and Harden as the 1 solid guy.

20 years is a long time, likely to have several GMs per team so that will tend to water down / regress teams to the mean.

A specific GM strong for 5-7 years is notable but it is also worth keeping in mind it could be aided by some short-run better than average "luck" / variation.

If you have 3 #3-5 picks, "average" performance would be a yield of 2 stars and 1 solid guy. 3 stars and you are better than average. Of course the megawattage of the stars matters for how well you did.

Another 82 games article suggests that the very best drafting teams over the last 20 years beat the expected level of performance of their draft picks by about 15% and the worst fall 15% short. It was done before the Thunder had had enough trial to get included in the study separate from its past.

It is hard to get what is average performance in the draft down precisely for all picks.

But a study at 82 games said that a 3-5 pick is a "star" at least 60% of the time and only drops to role player about 1 in 10 times. The middle ground of "solid" is kinda nebulous. Who is a star and who is only solid? That will often be debatable.

justin :@DXL
Unbelievable hot streak with first round picks? Ignoring the easiest pick of the last decade (Durant), he’s gotten one other potential star player our of three other top five selections. He’s done well with his selections but it hasn’t been an ‘unbelievable’ hot streak…
Then you have to consider Byron Mullens over Rodrigue Beaubois which looks like a disaster.
Russell Westbrook was really the only challenging first round selection he’s made so far where you could outright say has been an overwhelming success. But that’s expected of a fourth pick.

Three words about draft success: Beaubois, Budinger, Blair

@DXL

Tibor Pleiss is another 2nd rounder that I'm interested in.

@DXL

Unbelievable hot streak with first round picks? Ignoring the easiest pick of the last decade (Durant), he's gotten one other potential star player our of three other top five selections. He's done well with his selections but it hasn't been an 'unbelievable' hot streak...

Then you have to consider Byron Mullens over Rodrigue Beaubois which looks like a disaster.

Russell Westbrook was really the only challenging first round selection he's made so far where you could outright say has been an overwhelming success. But that's expected of a fourth pick.

Budinger would've been an excellent backup SF, in the event that JG wasn't able to stay past this season.

@Crow
I believe the Budinger pick cost a little less than 2 million. The Vaden pick was cheaper at $500,000.

While Presti's been on a unbelievable hot streak with first round picks (the Westbrook and Ibaka picks especially), he has been mediocre with 2nd round picks. I do hold out hope for Reid and Lat Williams, I like what I saw out of both of them at summer league.

@justin
I know. Scary. I wonder if they would go to a five-man front court rotation or just put Jermaine on the bench???

@Bryan

Perkins will be back eventually, too.

.... just look at the minutes distribution for the Celtics' center rotation: Shaq with the start and 18 mins and Glen Davis and Jermaine O'Neal off the bench with 29 mins and 13 mins respectively. Some of Davis's minute came at power forward, where Garnett played 35 minutes.

I can't think of too many teams outside of the Lakers that will be able to handle that front court rotation.

It's crazy how good a defensive player Garnett is. I'm thankful he's gotten to play in Boston and be successful, it would have been a shame if he was in Minnesota losing his whole career.

I don't think I'd feel safe generalizing from the Heat's performance in this game too much.

While I have been skeptical of the arangement from the begining in terms of getting those pieces to fit together, I think they will pull it together at some point.

Also, the Celtics are going to abuse a lot of teams this year. With all that depth they will be more rested and probably have a better chance at staying healthy throughout the season.

Miami vs Boston Shot Selection

Miami
Close: 12-28
Midrange: 7-26
3PT: 8-20

Boston
Close: 19-36
Midrange: 5-17
3PT: 8-16

I'm still smiling about the Heat losing last night. I loved Rondo's response when asked if Miami was still the team to beat, "I think we are." and then he walked off. Stupid reporter.

By the way, that Converse commercial played during the game last night w/ Dr J was sick.

The Jumpman commercial with Wade made me sick.

I wonder how much money these guys lost.

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Lebron played 43 minutes and the only time he was taken out to rest was right in the middle of his hot streak.

How long until Riles takes over? Spoelstra looked out of his depth.

@Mark!
Now I'd go as far as saying LBJ would be a lock for 6th man of the year.

So Lebron had a +/- or +1 and Ilgauskas +17.

Lebron played his best basketball when it was him + a bunch of scrubs on the court.

So just bring him off the bench, right?

Ozark :Yeah, Lebronze is clearly gonna average a trip dub this year.
Where’s Elegy?

I'm here late! What's up? [and in case you're associating said trip-dub with me, I didn't say that!]

Greg :One thing that was quite evident to me tonight, the supporting cast for the Big 3 is mediocre at best.

Kevin Garnett looks pretty healthy and he was a monster defensively. Miami looked uncomfortable on offense the whole way, mostly because Garnett and his long tree arms were everywhere.

Getting through today will be so hard.

Just call him "Hugo"

Carved my pumpkin with the Thunder logo tonight. Looks awesome!

Houston paid a future 2nd and cash (not sure how much but probably over $1 million) for the right to take Budinger, the last player who was worth something that draft. Vaden was "cheaper" but doesn't look like it was worth it.

Overall Presti turned 15 draft picks at the time of the draft over the 4 seasons into 8 players on the team and 1 more coming (possible more with Reid and Williams).

Buying a second-round pick for Chase Budinger would have worked out so much better than buying a second-round pick for Robert Vaden.

One thing that was quite evident to me tonight, the supporting cast for the Big 3 is mediocre at best.

Royce Young :@justin

Dwyane Wade is soooo Jamario Moon. I totally see it.

Exactly. More true than you think, Hoyce. That's why I come to this internets.

@justin
Dwyane Wade is soooo Jamario Moon. I totally see it.

Serge Ibaka’s Unknown Sibling :I really didn’t see the difference between the heat and last year’s Cavs. I know theres 81 games left, but it really looks like its still the Lebron vs 5 at the end.

You don't see the difference? Really...?

I really didn't see the difference between the heat and last year's Cavs. I know theres 81 games left, but it really looks like its still the Lebron vs 5 at the end.

Well, LBJ did manage 31 after warming up in the second half and picking up the pace on punching Pierce in the chest and traveling more efficiently.

Wade looked bad, and Bosh was quiet as a door mouse.

LOL at how Miami totally sagged off Rondo in the clutch when he was wide open at the 3 pt line. I can't believe how he hung with KD in the HORSE train wreck 3 pt shootout.

Miami losing the first game of the Big Three Era is going to be great!!!!

and now miami has closed the gap on lebrons scoring, but this game is pretty ugly

Boston looks great

the poor free throw shooting by both teams is ugh, they are professionals and neither team can hit 65%

rondo has more assists then everybody else combined

miami shooting 27% from the floor and 64% from FT not a championship level of play

lebron+wade 2 AST 9 TOs

so much for lebron averaging a triple double

Wow! The Heat is off.

The big 3 have 70% of Miami's pts, as expected. Unfortunately, that's only 21 pts.

Miami's missing a lot of easy shots IMO.

Yeah, Lebronze is clearly gonna average a trip dub this year.

Where's Elegy?

wade 1-7 4 TOs

@Ozark
lol miami is on pace for 39 points, durant can get that by himself