Home > Bolts > Wednesday Bolts – 9.1.10

Wednesday Bolts – 9.1.10

Did you know: 27 days until Thunder Media Day. It’s going to be here sooner than you think.

Jason Kersey of NewsOK is thinking political about today’s game against Iran: “I’m fully aware that many people watch sports to get away from things like Iran’s nuclear program. But sometimes sports can add intrigue to the big political issues of the day. The Miracle on Ice, anyone? So, apologies all around if you couldn’t care less about the political implications of a United States vs. Iran basketball game. I, on the other hand, find it captivating.”

Jonathan Givony of Draft Express on OKC’s new hires: “Some interesting front office moves from OKC Thunder. Promoting Rob Hennigan is a great move. Future GM material.”

SLC Dunk is doing some mythbusting: “The other thing that OKC has going for them is that a new CBA will hypothetically help owners more than it helps players. Maybe a max contract for Westbrook in 2012 will mean a lot less than they just shelled out to Durant. This is why it is so smart for OKC to make Jeff Green wait for a contract extension until the next CBA. The Thunder might lose one or two of these young players, but Green isn’t close to a max contract and Ibaka and Harden aren’t going to be either. As long as they can retain Durant and Westbrook, this team will be contenders. And I think at worst, they will be able to afford Durant and Westbrook at max contracts and either Harden or Ibaka at a quasi-large contract. But more than likely, future contract extensions will keep the whole core from staying together.”

Neil Paine of Basketball Reference has advanced stats for the Worlds. Interestingly, Russell Westbrook leads the American’s with a floor percentage of 59.6 percentage (the percentage of possessions that he scores at least one point divided by total possessions).  He’s also second in 2-point field goal percentage also and No. 1 in true shooting percentage. A lot of it is because he’s scoring at the rim at will, but still. Also, KD is second on the team in defensive rating. So that’s cool.

Rob Mahoney of PBT doesn’t like what Coach K is doing so far: “Yet thus far, in games against Team USA’s most skilled opponents, Mike Krzyzewski has turned to a top-heavy rotation heavily dependent on its starters. It’s an understandable tactic for most NBA and NCAA teams, but given how talented this roster is? And more importantly, how roughly congruent every non-Durant talent on the roster happens to be? It’s ludicrous.”

Why Russell Westbrook wears No. 0? Because he needed to get his swag back.

Ziller making a case for Melo in Sactown: “The Kings have modeled themselves after the Oklahoma City Thunder; like OKC, Sacramento hit the depths, drafted a superstar, drafted well again and is ready to rise. Evans isn’t Kevin Durant, but one could argue Cousins is a bigger chip than Russell Westbrook and that the Omri Casspi-Donté Greene dragon outstrip the Thunders’ third tier … Look at it this way: who wouldn’t want to get traded to the Thunder right now? Two years ago, stars would have crossed Oklahoma City right off their list — too country, too many losses, too far from contention. They say the same about Sacramento right now, and while no one can guarantee the Kings are on the path of the Thunder, ready to contend in 2-3 years’ time, it’s a pretty straightforward analogy.”

Share:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • del.icio.us
  • Fark
  • StumbleUpon

Bolts

Post comment as twitter logo facebook logo
Sort: Newest | Oldest

@Bryan

KD tends to settle for the long two pointer a lot especially against physical defenses or trapping defenses. Teams will settle for him taking those shots, he only shot 37% from 16-23 feet out.

@justin
Agree on both posts. The best players always have a strong mid range game to keep defenders honest. In terms of ISO plays, the only mid range game Kevin can turn to is that baseline fade away ala Kobe (which he nearly has mastered). He has a really nice pull up jumper, but he doesn't hit it with enough regularity yet. He starts to drop those two shots with regularity and he will be even harder to stop. He also needs to improve on his passing. Complete offensive players like Lebron, Kobe and Jordan, have all three options, drive, pullup or dish. I'd say Kevin has 2.5 out of three.

If he adds a post game where he can score or pass out.... well, game over. There won't be anybody not named Ron Artest who would have a prayer on D.

KD would be a monster with a Dirk-like mid range game... I think offensively that's the best thing for him to work on, and his most likely area of huge improvement.

@Matt

Durant does not have one of the best jump shots in the NBA. His long mid range game is actually somewhat of a weakness, considering how often he shoots them. Durant should improve lots of things about his game but it's statements such as:

"The idea of a 37-11 type season at KD’s peak 4-5 years from now is not ludicrous."

Which is leading to some calling Kevin Durant overrated. 37-11 is very ludicrous. Even Wilt only did that four times, and him and Elgin are the only players to ever do it. And that was in the early 60's when teams put up 50% more shot attempts. Making such a statement is basically saying Kevin Durant will be the best basketball player in NBA history in 4-5 years. Which he would be, if he put up those numbers.

KD is on the cusp of Top 5 status right now, and will probably get to Top 3 at least within the next few seasons. There's a remote chance he might even surpass LeBron if he continues to improve defensively and on the boards (a 30-10 type season isn't as ludicrous, and would be very impressive). Let's appreciate him for what he is and not crown him king of NBA history just yet...

The analysis of the Blazers/Thunder argument is fundamentally flawed for one critical reason. It does not in any way account for the likely progression of Kevin Durant.

We know that Durant is a tireless worker who has improved by leaps and bounds every year he's been in the league. To expect that progression to simply halt, at the age of 21, when many people his age are still playing college ball, is ludicrous. Durant will continue to hone one of the best jumpshots in the NBA, and he will develop a formidable low post game as he continues to get stronger.

The idea of a 37-11 type season at KD's peak 4-5 years from now is not ludicrous. The Blazers just can't keep up with that sort of superstar. The only other guy in the league with this kind of talent is LeBron James. Period.

@Mark!

2009 was indeed a strong PG draft. The best front offices are studying several years in advance. A plan tries to use that knowledge to maximum advantage. One move affects another. What ifs have their place and their limits.

@Crow

As far as revisionist drafts, the best play was probably Lopez in '08 and whatever PG was available to us in '09 (Rubio, Flynn, Curry, Jennings, Holiday, Lawson, Teague, Maynor, Collison, Beuabois, Douglas) right?

A well-played trade down could have brought Lopez and something else. A trade down for Thompson or Hibbert would have been more risky but they were also options at the time. Can't re-run it though. Green was already locked deeply into the plan and a main reason why Love was not selected.

Which sounds stronger, the current starting lineup or it modified to have Maynor at starting PG (or some other signing) and a drafted Love at starting PF and Green off the bench? I'd be for the latter but Presti went his way passing on Love and Lopez. I wasn't a 1000% for Love in the draft but I for him more than any other choice. The right choice should be clearer in a year or two either way. None of the 3 so far are great or bad, all are pretty good but big men are rarer.

The best time to get Love was the '08 draft when they had the chance and made a choice. The next best chance will be if he refuses an extension next summer or whenever the lockout is over.

The Blazer depth looks good but it could get difficult to manage right.

@Mark!
Yeah. I actually am just Effing with you a bit. Love is REALLY good.
I just haven't seen Presti make a "big-time trade" with our young guys. He might trade Collison, Nenads, BJ,(maybe)Aldrich, Cook, and Mo-pete...but not KD, RW, Green, Serge, Harden,...I think they are all off limits. At least for 2 more seasons or so. I could be wrong...just my opinion.

@Cpt. C-Note

I'm confused why it isn't the Presti way to trade an unproven gamble for a proven stud that fills an obvious hole.

I'm hoping this slogan isn't indicative of anything factual and the only reason trade scenarios like this don't happen is because they weren't ever available.

@Mark!
SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I do like Kevin Love, but it's not the Presti-way to trade core assets for a semi-proven/mid to high-value player. Presti and co. will continue to build on our own developing talent.
I wouldn't trade Serge for Love.
Yes, I'm a bit loco, but it has nothing to do with this hypothetical trade...more the paint-thinner I'm drinking ;)

Go Thunder!

@Mark!

So Rubio's averages are about 4 pts, 6 assists, 2 turnovers in about 27 minutes per game.

This isn't the NBA but I could only find 1 NBA scrub with no more than 5 pts per game and no less than 5 assists in similar time in the last 30 years.

Change the standard to under 7 pts and more than 4 assists per game and the best name in the group was Nate McMillan. It is a mostly weak group with lots of 30 year olds.

@justin

I don't think there is any possible trade we can make with Minnesota to get back Love that doesn't include Westbrook or Durant.

I can't think of anything.

They don't have any stinker contracts.

Now they have more SF than they have PT to accommodate.

Decent PG rotation. Maynor offers them nothing significant.

SG is a little weak, but Harden hasn't shown Love type value. Certainly hasn't proven he's a significant leap over Brewer/Ellington. We *hope* it, but Love is proven.

Their center rotation sucks, but it might be better than ours. Probably a wash at worst.

Our draft picks won't have any value.

No other team is going to three or four way with us and Minnesota in a deal that leaves us with Love. Whatever other team is in the deal trading usable assets would have to take Love.

If I were a Minnesota fan, I would laugh at anyone offering up Ibaka + useless filler (again, what do we have of value outside Ibaka?) for Love. I wouldn't trade Love for Ibaka/Harden/Green given their current roster.

I'm sure there are still people here who would rather have Ibaka over Love. There were certainly a passionate and vocal group going on about that last time this conversation took place.

And they're still crazy.

Rubio Rubio!
29 minutes, 3:2 A:T, 6 Pts (0/2 3P)
26 minutes, 11:4 A:T, 8 Pts (0/2 3P)
28 minutes, 2:2 A:T, 3 Pts (0/1 3P)
26 minutes, 7:0 A:T, 0 Pts (0/2 3P)
—————————————
109 minutes, 23:8 A:T, 17 Pts (0/7 3P)

Crow :It is a mixed bag but if you want something else to read this Blazer board engaged in some discussion of the Thunder vs Blazers. http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/8/29/1657429/blazers-vs-thunder-the-other
What do you most agree and disagree with?

There are some great commenters over there, lots of good points.

It basically comes down to how you project the Thunder youth progressing vs. how you project the health of the Blazers. I'd say the Blazers have the advantage in that they could overcome a moderate amount of injuries easier than the Thunder could overcome their young guys (especially Harden) not making all that much progress.

Putting your faith in a Camby / Oden / Przybilla center rotation is asking for trouble, though. Without either Camby or Oden or Przybilla playing at a high level I don't think the Blazers are a top four seed in the West. It'd be tough to pick a less durable center rotation, Camby's been decent lately but he's getting up there. If they can get 80+ games between those guys, playing at a high level, they can be a top four seed. If Camby and Oden are relatively healthy all year then they could win the West.

For the Thunder to be a top four seed they'll need some progression from James Harden and the offense in general. And no regression from anyone like Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook.

I think the Blazers have less 'ifs'. But it's very close, IMO.

John :We should trade for Kevin Love IMMEDIATELY. Westbrook and Love worked Iran over today. awesome combo

It'd be nice but it's too late... probably would have to give up Ibaka plus maybe something else. He's going to be a great player.

We should trade for Kevin Love IMMEDIATELY. Westbrook and Love worked Iran over today. awesome combo

It is a mixed bag but if you want something else to read this Blazer board engaged in some discussion of the Thunder vs Blazers. http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/8/29/1657429/blazers-vs-thunder-the-other

What do you most agree and disagree with?

Roster limit of 15 doesn't apply in off season. You have 'til a few days before the season starts to get to 15 or less.

@justin

I hadn't heard of an official waiver and a google search reveals none. Sham Sports doesn't have a cap hold for him... but they do still for Shakur (signed elsewhere) and Ollie, so I am not 100% convinced. But it is a minor point.

PNT :

Bo :Another OKC article.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/does-team-usa-experience-help-thunder-083110

The author of this is clueless. He says Harden plays no defense at all. Not True. He thinks Serge will get the bulk of the minutes at center by season’s end. Hardly. And to top it off, he thinks Etan Thomas is still on our team!!!

He also said aldrich is "extremely raw" Really not the way i would describe a player coming out of a top 5 college program who is probably the most NBA ready of centers from this years college crop.

@justin
im pretty sure we had to to have the space to get aldrich mo pete

@Crow

I'm almost positive the Thunder have renounced their rights to Etan Thomas.

@PNT

Harden still has stuff to improve upon on both ends of the court but he was tied for 3rd best on raw team +/- while on the court in the playoffs and the team defense with him on was toloerable. Except for the scrubs, Thabo was only ahead of Krstic.

Technically Thomas hasn't been waived so he is still a cap hold for now. I heard Atlanta was looking at him but I don't if it happens. Talking about him with the Thunder does make Rosen look distant from the situation though.

Susan Bible rated the west last week
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=16913
Don't recall if it got linked before.

It is a tough year to order them precisely. Not many big disagreements with the list though.

OKC at 3rd seems fairly responsible though I probably go at least a bit lower.

My initial reaction is that Hornets seem too low to me and Houston too high but they are plausible calls.

I think Russ got a little bit of a bum wrap in today's broadcast. He's made 3 poor decisions so far, but he was brilliant with Love in the game. He was driving and kicking well, but take Love away and Russ can't find anyone. Russ is one of those guys whose court vision is more familiarity than natural talent. He needs more time with everyone not named Durant or Love and he would be better.

Bo :Another OKC article.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/does-team-usa-experience-help-thunder-083110

The author of this is clueless. He says Harden plays no defense at all. Not True. He thinks Serge will get the bulk of the minutes at center by season's end. Hardly. And to top it off, he thinks Etan Thomas is still on our team!!!

Slightly off topic, but I'm just now catching the USA/Iran game on ESPN3 Replay.

Just my eye test, but I think Odom and Billups miss more shots at the rim than anyone else. Not hard shots, easy, uncontested layup type shots at the rim. Amazing. Watching Billups miss those bunnies time and time again makes me hope Russ doesn't follow that same path.

@Keith

The Kings will probably eventually change coaches. Whether it is in 1, 2 or 3 years seems hard to call with Petri and the Maloofs. A stronger defensive coach would help them move up and be more like the Thunder was last season.

Do they really want to stay in Sacramento? I have some level of doubt despite their public statements. I don't think they've really made up their minds either way.

Rosen seems too tough on Harden's defense to me. I found it odd that he diagnosed Green's weaknesses then said "his potential is unlimited".

Another OKC article.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/does-team-usa-experience-help-thunder-083110

I agree with the 3rd myth-bust more than the other two. With the OKC myth-bust the least.

Ziller talks about France but gives little space / attention to Gelabale and none to Mahnimi or Koffi. People talk about the value or desirability of short articles but as is often the case this piece of one was too short.

I'd call him no more than the 6th most important player. So that is borderline for being a significant long-term retention. Presti thinks he is. Time will tell more. If Harden grow to 35 minutes a game in a year or two it will be less significant than if he doesn't.

Thabo avoided the hassle of restricted free agency. I assume he and his agent decided to do this based on a pretty good read of what his market might have been best case and the level of uncertainty and risk.

Next time he will be unrestricted but that is a long ways off.

Whether they got Thabo at a discount is somewhat debatable. It depends on the offense and the number of minutes he gets in the future. His salary is typical for a wing stopper / little offense / share the position player. For a wing stopper to get paid more they usually have to have more offense or stay at close to 30 minutes. If Thabo drifts back to 20 minutes or less and / or stays who he is now on offense then his deal is fairly typical. Maybe a bit of a discount but that discount was mainly a trade-off for a longer contract than many wing stoppers get and probably more security that his minutes will stay at least near half the game. Wing stoppers are always in fear of being replaced by a stronger offensive player or a cheaper stopper.

@DXL

Thanks. I forgot about him.

They'll need more of those type retentions, including- I'd think- at least one more vet or young vet offensive player.

Givony gives praise and a tout for Hennigan and that is to be expected and in the long run he might well become a future GM. Scouting though is only a part of the GM job and he has done that for a couple years and perhaps not much else yet. The supply of decent to good assistant GMs will always exceed the number of GM openings. Now he gets to work on other parts of the work. I assume he will travel less or much less.

I also assume Weaver is the other guy who allowed to talk trades now besides Presti. Probably was Cho before. You certainly can do exploratory stuff or detail work though I don't know how much Presti and other GMs let others do the really important bargaining. Hennigan may assist the assistant for awhile.

That OKC could potentially lose some of its core and still be contenders is a pretty big stretch. The future depends on being able to retain almost everyone they want to retain to stay at this level or advance. They can maybe afford to lose a few players, especially after the first 3-5, but they won't feel it only if they get vets in somehow to replace or if the current bench or the next few additions from the draft develop fast. It is a tightrope to get good and stay that way when the budget climbs and players hit at least restricted free agency. Several players other teams will try to bid high enough to get or at least disrupt the Thunder.

Floor percentage adds some side perspective but in the end is inferior to other scoring measures. Frequency of some points is pretty tangential compared to simple point frequency.

@Crow
Thabo was traded from Chicago, and he re-upped for 3 years, and at a discount from the market rate (for free agents this summer).

@Joe
I guess it also depends on what you build around with, the current lakers team is built around kobe, but pau is one of the best offensive big men. Or the bulls were built around jordan but had rodman

@Sammy
i wonder how good aldrich can be at PNR, he is almost certainly better then all of our current big men.

The "who wouldn’t want to get traded to the Thunder right now?" theory by Ziller might be right now but it needs to be tested to really mean much. Every player who has been traded to them previously was traded again or was let go or walked away when they finished their contract or is still to be determined. None have re-upped and added anything long-term yet. So get someone worthwhile and get them to stick. Then you can say it and it will mean something. The only significant free-agent so far was Krstic who appeared to have no other option to get back to the NBA at such a salary.

RW played the same way against Brazil. I hate to say it, but it seems he's taken a step back the past couple of games.

For those watching, I liked what the announcer said, "At some point, you're not playing Iran (20+ pt lead), you're playing yourself." Westbrook is more than happy to beat himself today. I look for a big bounce-back tomorrow.

I hate seeing rookie Russ. He ran straight into the defending center. He didn't lean to get around, or even take the extra dribble after the defender got himself set. There was almost no chance of making that shot, but he just expected the foul.

@Colin B
Not at all. I have badly wanted K Love here forever. And not just because I got to watch them at UCLA. More because Kevin Love is an absolute beast. This is a tangent, but in what possible justification was there for him coming off the bench and only playing 28 minutes a game last year? Why didn't somebody slap Kurt Rambis for inexplicably sitting his best player?

@Colin B
Russ+Love can dominate offense rebound

Sammy :K Love and Westbrook owning the offense right now. Westbrook looks like he’d thrive if he played with a big that ran the PNR well.

Yep...