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Tuesday Bolts – 9.7.10

Free Darko with more on Durant: “Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: there’s a modesty and restraint to Durant that sets him apart from other superstars. Yet there’s simply no way to look on Durant mid-game and not see something vicious, even tormented, in his eyes. Sometimes, Tim Duncan gets riled in the playoffs; otherwise, he glides along the pathways to victory with a detachment often mistaken for disinterest. That in no way describes what it’s like to watch Kevin Durant play. He possesses all the swagger of his peers, it’s just been sublimated, or shoved deep down inside so it’s even more combustible. Durant isn’t a throwback to some genteel sporting past. But, it should be noted, that past never really existed the way people want it to today.”

Jack McCallum of SI with a pretty outstanding column on Team USA: “There is much roster confusion, too. All over Turkey I’ve been asked, “Where is Kobe Bryant?” for it is Black Mamba’s likeness that is plastered on the billboards advertising the tournament. In the window of the Nike store on Istiklal, one of Istanbul’s main commercial thoroughfares, are displayed two U.S. jerseys: Bryant’s No. 10 and LeBron James’ No. 6. An English-language newspaper in Istanbul did accurately point to the real U.S. star with a Monday headline that read “Durant and Friends Lead U.S. Into Angola Test,” but ran a photo of Chauncey Billups instead of Durant.”

Darnell Mayberry on the expectations the Thunder will bring back from Turkey: “Whenever Kevin Durant manufactured a fall-away jumper or a fast-break dunk, the fawning would begin. ESPN color commentator Fran Fraschilla invariably insisted Durant, 21, is so immensely talented that he would be among the top two players picked, perhaps even the top overall selection, in any hypothetical world basketball draft. As if the Thunder hasn’t harvested enough hype following a stirring 50-win season that ended with a rack of awards and a riveting playoff series, OKC must now bear the burden of possessing a player some are openly considering the best in the world. A part of it doesn’t compute considering the Thunder won just 23 games in 2008-09. But there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight for the high praise.”

There was court dedication yesterday in Turkey and KD was there.

Fran Blinebury of NBA.com on players that need to straighten up: “There are rookies like Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant who make the jump from the college ranks to the NBA look as easy hopping over a puddle. They change uniforms and location, but keep their poise and confidence. They step into the glare of a bigger spotlight, but always find a way to outshine everyone else on the floor. For such players, there is no such thing as a transition period. However, there are others who find the adjustment more challenging. It takes them time to learn systems and teammates, to find where they fit in and how to contribute. But after two or three seasons to get their feet wet, it is definitely time to jump into the pool and make a bigger splash.”

John Rohde updating on Nenad Krstic: “Krstic played a key role in Serbia (5-1) surviving the first round of elimination play, scoring a team-high 16 points in a last-second 73-72 victory over rival Croatia on Saturday. Serbia is 3-0 with Krstic in the lineup and next plays defending FIBA champion Spain (4-2) on Wednesday in a quarterfinal contest.”

Nick Collison, television critic: “Watching the last Mad Men. If there was an Emmy for “Most Realistic Sounding Puking in a Drama” Don Draper would win in a landslide.”

Searching for a nickname for Russell Westbrook using “zero.” I’ve always been partial to “Jet Zero” on that one.

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Crow :@Jax
Raging Bile Duct
It is amazing that they went so far with such significant issues.

I'm sure there is something that works as a balance. Would be interesting to hypothesize about what that might be.

It also gets at coaching but that is for another time and thread.

In about 75 minutes a game the centers got 1.3 assists. That was less than 1/3rd of what bigger minute centers average around the league per minute. That gets at priorities. Presti seems to prioritize big man mid-range shooting (and other things) more than assist-making (or other things).

Thabo down a bit per minute. Durant has to take a bigger part of the assist-making load, at least with the current design.

When you have low role distribution you reduce your ability to sustain a down time by a relied upon guy.

Maynor's minutes per game were down about 25% in the playoffs but his assists were down 60%. Much of the responsibility for this was on the shooters but still you need to find a way. Durant's assists were down about 20%. Green's actually up by a tiny amount. Harden stayed even. Westbrook scored but he also dealt out 25% less assists than in the regular season.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

Thanks Jax.

I didn't look at playoff distribution of stats / roles before but, at your prompting, I checked and the breadth of distribution of league average performances on stats on the Thunder fell a bit further to tie the level of the lowest team that I checked in regular season.

No other Thunder player had 2.5 assists per game. In the regular season there were 6 teams with just 3 including the Thunder but having one is an unparalleled weakness among those checked (I didn't check the 10 worst teams).

The number of Thunder players putting up 2+ 3 pointers per game in the playoffs expanded by two but they couldn't hit them decently- under 30% 3 pt FG% and still 4 less attempts than the Lakers.

It is amazing that they went so far with such significant issues. If they played somebody else it might have gone better... or they might have still got beat by a lesser team and gotten somewhat less praise for it. The Bulls probably would have been tough since they are a good defensive team and that is clearly the tougher type opponent for the Thunder based on W-L splits of teams good on one or the other.

@Crow

I don't know if you'll revisit this thread again, since I'm a day late getting to your comments, but I find the stats / 'roles' research interesting.

I wonder what those numbers would be for the Thunder if their playoff opponent was someone other than the Lakers. For instance, and this isn't possible, but if the Thunder and the Bulls had played each other, I wonder how different their numbers would be.

Krstic at 16 pts (11th best) and 7 rebs in 24 minutes per game so far.

Brazil's Huertas at 11 pts, 6 assists and 47% from 3 pt land has drawn some attention. 6-3 PG, 27 years old. Not sure if he'd come to be 3rd string or how know maybe even 2nd string. Other information would be needed to know the talent level and situation.

Traded for Pleiss finished at 8 pts, 6 rebs, 44% FG in 20 minutes.

Former second round Thunder pick sold for cash to the Cavs Sasha Kaun stats for Russia- 11.5 pts, 6.5 rebs, 64% FG% in 22 minutes. He hasn't come over yet and might not but that is a decent line for the Worlds.

Cavs were 50+ for 4 of 5 years and are probably going to fall out of it at least temporarily. Nuggets 3 of 6 with Karl, 3 of 7 with Antony and look likely to fall in 2011-12, if not before. Suns 5 of 6 and it could go either way whether it continues. Jazz 3 of 6 after the big free agent moves. Lakers, 3 of 5 with Bynum and impressive over longer terms with some bumps in the road. Mavs and Spurs both 10 for 10 over 50 wins but the Spurs have 4 titles while the Mavs have none with one NBA finals appearance and one more conference finals appearance.

@ThunderFan

Questions that could be asked from Susan's article:

1. What percent of future cap space will be used to sign new players vs existing and what kind and when? Of course flexibility is valuable but if 70, 80 or more % of the project cap space gets used to retain existing players then the impact of the future cap space might be easy to overstate.

2. Why on a team with many "high-character, unselfish players" are assist totals so low and as a consequence team efG% so low and offensive efficiency only a bit better than average? I've discussed before, so I'll just mention it.

3. What "complementary pieces" are still needed? Possibilities include another 3 point threat or two, a better passing front-line player, a post scorer or at least an all-round stronger interior player and probably a vet who is a contributing leader.

4. They are "building a team that can grow together and last". How long to do they think they can do it? Off the cuff only about 5 teams current have gone beyond a good 6 year run. Are they still going to going 50+ wins at the end of Durant's extension? If so, that will be impressive. And hard.

If interested, here is the revised and extended version of my previous posts

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php...

@Sammy
There's the blueprint (Kahn copying Presti) and then there's the execution of the blueprint (massive fail so far for Kahn).

@Sammy
Good analysis of Kahn vs. Presti!

Or, perhaps more accurately, you could say the Thunder has less roles shared by players at or above the level of league average performance.

Here is a version of something I posted elsewhere:

From hoopdata I found and rounded off the league average per game for all players on certain stats:

FGA 9
3PA 2
FTA 2.5
TRB 4
AST 2.5
ST+BL 1
PTS 10

Then I looked at a few playoff teams and how many of their guys met or were real close to the above standards for these stats / "roles". It is worth keeping in mind that 5 of these are related to offense, 1 shared, 1 defense.

I looked at the Lakers, Celtics, Magic and Suns as the final 4 playoff teams and then the Bulls and Thunder to look at first round teams who may have a bigger future.

The Lakers met these standards the most in this subgroup. It could be said they shared the roles the most. Suns 2nd, Celtics tied for 3rd in this group. The Bulls tied the Celtics. The Magic and Thunder were separated some from the others and were tied as trailers in this small group on the number of standards met, the amount that roles were shared to near league averages.

The importance of the stats / roles are not the same and the importance of sharing them may not be either. But this is a quick and simple look into the topic. Hope to hear more what the presenter does and finds and any related work others have done that they are willing to talk about.

The Lakers had 5-7 guys meet each standard. The Suns only had less than 5 once, Celtics and Bull 3 times, Magic and Thunder 5 times.

It would be worthwhile to look at all teams and across at least 10 years.

Shot defense is not in the data and are shared roles. It could be added to the comparison in some manner using various measures traditionally at 82 games and previously public Adjusted Factors at hoopnumbers. The Magic and Thunder as a whole do shot defense very well. How many individual players met the standard of above average at the task could be estimated from these resources though it won't be perfectly precise or agreed to by all but it still could be fairly good and could be even better with access to Synergy data if truly tape-based. The Suns were actually a bit above average on eFG% allowed and FT/FGA allowed. The Celtics and Thunder were below average on FT/FGA allowed. By choice probably, but nonetheless below. With these exceptions the rest of the sub group were top 10 on both.

Bottomline, the Thunder has more role specialization on offense than the Lakers or 4 of the 5 other teams reviewed so far and was tied for the least combined player achievement of these league averages. You may be able to win deep against the grain. I haven't studies previous years yet to draw a strong conclusion. But this is part of the blueprint / reality / achievement to date review.

Did you miss Bible's OKC Blueprint article on HoopsWorld? http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=17245

@MartzMimic
There are other similarities. Kahn shares Presti's strategy of stock piling draft picks and cap space. The difference is that Presti knows how to use those assets; Kahn doesn't. Before last year's draft, I remember thinking that the Randy Foye for the 5th pick was a great trade for a rebuilding team. Kahn had the 5th, 6th and 17th picks in what turned out to be a very deep draft. Course, we all know what's happened since then.

@Floppy Punch!
I think Brazil matches up with Team USA much better than Argentina does, so Argentina all the way

Who should I be rooting for, Brazil or Argentina?

@MartzMimic
Now,if one GM wants to rebuild his team with young players,the media would compare them with thunder.

I was apoplectic this morning after reading HoopsWorld's review of the Timberwolves. In one of the sections, it compared David Kahn to Presti. With the exception of both teams trading away franchise players - Jefferson vs Allen - I see absolutely no similarity.

Royce - did you see this? The NBA store has a "Durantula" t-shirt. Man, you shoulda trademarked that or something!
http://store.nba.com/product/index.jsp?productId=4...

that SI article is hilarious (and sad?)!

Of course Nick Collison watches Mad Men.

@Mark!

My parents bought a new car last week at Dobrinksi's in Kingfisher and saw a very tall guy buying a black Yukon. They were told it was Cole Aldrich. So at least he is buying locally.

@Mark!
I'm very very interested in seeing how Aldrich looks against NBA big men.

@Mark!

Follow them on twitter. They tweet about their workouts all the time.

@Mark!

Harden put on twitter that he had a great summer for working out and getting better. We can hope. Other than that, Ibaka and Maynor are always posting about being at the gym.

Has anyone heard anything about the rest of the team as far as working out, practicing, conditioning, whatever? Curious about anything people have heard, but specifically about Aldrich. I haven't heard a word.

Personally as a nick name for russ, ive always liked " the torch" or "Human torch" as in that guy from the fantastic 4, or like one of vinces old nicknams, the human highlight reel.

it also fits russ' game with the confidence he plays with, that he is a highlight waiting to happen, that he has to try and play in control ect

PS id love to see that shirt with the thunder as the fantastic 4.
KD as Mr Fantastic
Russ as the torch
Harden as the thing or thebeard
and uncle jeff as the invisible green