Is this getting old yet? Yeah, I thought not. Yesterday, Russ threw down this ridiculous reverse lob. And today, he brings you three dunks of the nasty variety.
The past two games, Team USA hasn’t required the services of KD very much and Westbrook has mainly played in mop-up duty. So there’s nothing all that incredible to take from those games. But the U.S. is 5-0 and headed to the knockout phase, set to play Angola.
Also, Im predicting a triple double for Harden
@Keith
His Blocks and Steals will get abump this year. Im predeicting at least a .5 increase in blocks. Even multiple 5+ bocl games
@justin
Better by either improving his handle so he can get to the rim on his own more often (so he takes less 16-23 shots) or just become a better shooter from there.
Keith :@GregA Westbrook leap would be astounding. Durant really only has about two things he can feasibly work on: passing and limiting turnovers. As an offensive force, he is about as efficient as humanly possible given his usage.
I think the long mid-range game can get better... even in his two previous seasons he shot better from 16-23.
@Greg
A Westbrook leap would be astounding. Durant really only has about two things he can feasibly work on: passing and limiting turnovers. As an offensive force, he is about as efficient as humanly possible given his usage.
@Yoni from Israel
Thanks Yoni and L'Chayim. I feel better now.
The Bobcats were almost 5 pts better than average on defense but the Magic nearly matched them on D and were far superior on offense. It is much trickier to very good on both than just one.
Orlando made their big jump in defensive efficiency in Dwight Howard's second year and notably that was before VanGundy arrived. But he did nudge them from 6th to 1st in 2 years. Last season they slipped a little to 3rd.
Larry Brown took 2 seasons to go from 20th on defense to 1st with the Bobcats but the offense is still where it was before his arrival- in the bottom 20%. They made the playoffs in a weak east but were swept.
It is probably easier to deal with this in a bench player. You don't have to play him much or at all. If you are down by a lot you aren't risking that much.
@Keith
I wasn't meaning to understate our issues on offense, it certainly needs improvement. Was mainly pointing out how much of an accomplishment it is that this young of a team being so far ahead of the curve on defense is astonishing to me, it sets up the future nicely.
Things like improved shot selection and taking better care of the ball are both things Westbrook and Durant have improved on, and I see no reason why it won't continue. That will be critical. I'm also in the "Harden's going to have a leap year" camp.
You have to balance the offensive talent with the defense talent. If you've got a decent or good offensive guy who is bad on defense you can probably still use him in some circumstances if you have at least one really strong defender out there with him or at least are above average most other places. Of course if he is killing you, you take him out and try to pick better times.
Diogu was PER 25 last season but I think most coaches give more weight to the fact that coach only played 142 minutes. Both should be considered some. Certainly very small minute offensive performance has to be kept in perspective but many bench roles are fairly small. His per game minute average is over 12, that isn't that small. He has played almost 200 games at PER 16 for a career.
Defense is the issue (but it is for a lot of scorers) that explains the minutes a good deal though in this case. He was the worst or near to the worst for on the court team defensive efficiency for his last few teams. But that can be said for some other scorers too- Brooks, Kevin Martin, Bargnani, Amare, Z Randolph, B Lopez, Charlie V, A Jefferson, Boozer. etc.
Diogu has played 4 seasons and all at or above PER 15 if measured at the season rather than team level. And the trajectory is up, though the trajectory of the minutes is down. There are reasons the minutes have gone down but unless you are a good team I am not sure there is enough reason to justify the extent of the reduction.
Looks like he frequently was playing for teams fighting for the playoffs and falling short or making the playoffs for the first time in a while and not wanting to mess with it (Portland in 08-09). I understand this but I still think some of the also-rans could have taken a bigger development risk But that is just surface impression not based on day in, day out living it, so take it for that.
And the smaller one
@justin
No he didn't make the list. He actually got over 1000 minutes first season. I still might gamble on him but I'd want to see his condition and attitude.
Here is the big list
@justin
Yes I saw it and thought about referencing it previously but didn't and then didn't recall it now. The key finding there seems to me to be that a super strong defense is indeed more dominant in the playoffs than a statistically similar strength offense. If you are 5 or more points better than average you have something quite powerful on defense. 8+ pts better than average you really look good to make the finals or win a title. Thunder last season were 3 pts better than average on defensive efficiency. Need to pick up 2 more points to be one level of strong and 5 points to be dominant.
Did Ike Diogu make that cut? I remember Pacers or Warriors fans going bananas for him...
Actually the 2 guys who didn't turn out well, weren't that bad. They played for 7 and 8 seasons respectively and finished with a career PER of about 13 which is close to median overall and might be better than average for bigs. So it is gamble how well it will turn out but it seems more likely to be ok or good than bad.
24 guys over 6-9 have posted 20+ PER in their first or second year in any time under 500 minutes. How many turned out well? Looks like only 4.
But add a 100 minute minimum and there are only 6 candidates of which 2 turned out well and 2 are still in the pipline to be determined including DJ White.
So the rate of turning out well by the first standard was 1 in 6 but 1 in 2 in the super small second sample. My bet on Mahinmi is a riskier one than I realized but I'd still rather take it than let someone else take it.
Crow, Neil Paine did an article on "defense wins championships" that you might find interesting: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7276
Top 3 on defense is a very good thing but it may not be enough to get past the conference finals unless accompanied by a good enough offense, in line with what Justin noted.
The 2007 Spurs were 5th best on offense and 2nd best on defense. They swept the Cavs who were well past the usual tolerance at 18th on offense and 4th on defense.
The 2008 Celtics were 10th best on offense and 1st on defense. The Celts eventually beat the Lakers but they were quite competitive at 3rd on offense and 5th on defense.
Minor correction: made the second round about "80%" of the time
Defense is quite important but went to check the recent playoff fate of top 3 defenses:
2010 3 playoffs, 1 conference finals appearance.
2009 3 playoffs, 1 second round, 1 conference finals, 1 NBA finals appearance- but all in the east.
2008 3 playoffs, 1 first round exit, 1 conference finals, 1 NBA champion, 2 in the west but Boston won it.
2007 3 playoffs, 1 second round, 1 conference finals, 1 NBA finals, 2 in the west and the Spurs won it.
2006 3 playoffs, 1 first round exit, 2 second round.
So in 5 seasons these 15 top 3 on defense teams always made the playoffs, made the second round about 75% of the time, made conference finals a bit less than 50%, made finals 20% of the time and won it all about 13% of the time.
OT, but noteworthy:
http://ht.ly/2yuZu
"This will be a good experience for KD and Russell (Westbrook). Many teams will be wary of us this year. What is certain is that we don’t fear anyone." -Serge
I LOVE this guy!
GO USA!! GO THUNDER! (...and go college football kickoff!)
@Josh
totally.ive been thinking that for the past two years and im suprised nobody caught onto that
Mentioning Mahinmi again as I did in June/July. If he does well, the comments are already there and can't be accused of being rear view mirror phony bull.
I remember a certain Sonics radio host on a past draft coming on and saying he had inside info the Sonics wanted to take an obscure African and he wanted people to guess who it was. I dug around a bit based on the clue and guessed Mahnimi. He replied- "Who?" and "Nope". They took Sene.
@Greg
I think the issue is that our offense is worse than bad against other elite defenses. Take Durant out of the picture, and we're completely sunk. Can you imagine how badly our offense would have looked if LA had pretty much anyone other than Fisher at PG?
Even if we become a top 3 defensive team, we've shown an ability to lose even when we shut down the opposition.
@justin
They would have space is they ditch or move Cook or Peterson or somebody else. I'd rather gamble on Mahinmi's upside and have another big, young but a little older, in the stable for 2011-12 and beyond. But didn't happen.
justin :@Greg
Which is great but do we have the roster to be a top three defense? I’m not sure we do. Maybe if Aldrich meets the high end of his expectations. We’ll need the offense to come around if we’re going to take another step forward, IMO.
When you lead the league in blocks, and are a top-10 defense, with Nenad Krstic at center and Jeff Green at power forward, then I am very confident we can become a top 3 defense with Ibaka and Aldrich protecting the paint. It's a huge advantage that the players who will be here in the long-term, are miles ahead of others in the league at their age- defensively speaking.
His rebounding and block rates at WC are pretty consistent with his past. His pretty big FG% dip (he was mid to high 50s in Germany and EuroCup) is the main indicator of tougher conditions.
@Greg
I think a lot of teams in the NBA envy a coach/franchise that can convince kids that young to play that kind of defense. Offense can, and will come later. The champions of the league nearly ALWAYS play elite defense, and we're on track to get there when considering how young we are and how well we are already defending.
@Greg
Which is great but do we have the roster to be a top three defense? I'm not sure we do. Maybe if Aldrich meets the high end of his expectations. We'll need the offense to come around if we're going to take another step forward, IMO.
This is probably the best sustained competition level he has ever faced, yet.
Same with second level "EuroCup" stats though they are probably better than German league competition.
@Sammy
In general I'd take Euroleague stats as equal or better than World Cup. But I'd put his German league stats below.
justin :I think perhaps it’s Brooks who doesn’t care much for scoring efficiency. All he ever talks about is defense, and our offensive game plan is dumb. He seems to lean more defensive oriented players as far as his rotations go.
Whether right or wrong, his all-defense attitude convinced a group of primarily 20, 21, and 22-year olds to play top 10 defense in the league.
@Crow
Yeah I know, it's not like we had the roster space to acquire him anyway.
I think perhaps it's Brooks who doesn't care much for scoring efficiency. All he ever talks about is defense, and our offensive game plan is dumb. He seems to lean more defensive oriented players as far as his rotations go.
@justin
I am not saying for sure that folks, insiders and fans, underappreciate him but I am curious how much run he gets this season and how well he does. He was a no risk acquisition. He doesn't have to play to justify his salary. The worst he can be is about the cheapest insurance policy out there.
Jusy my impression from the last couple of Germany games
Pleiss has a ways to go, but there are some things he does well. He contests shots at the rim, moves his feet and blocks out well. He is also long as hell.
On offense, he sets soft picks, can't find his spot on PNR's (though I have not seen today's game) and generally looks lost. He also has a hard time getting off the ground (though not as bad as Swift)
Mahinmi at Worlds to date:
5 pts 3.4 rebs O.6 blocks per game but in only 14 minutes.
Put it on per minute basis he is pretty close to Pleiss on these 3 stats.
But he is also shooting 64.3 FG%, and 88% from FT line. With a third less turnovers per minute than Pleiss.
Ian Mahimni played 165 minutes last year, most of his big minute games (10+ minutes) were in blow outs against scrubs. I don't think any team looking at him were paying much attention to his numbers in such limited run so much as his skill set / talent level.
justin :
Greg :@justin Did you just look beyond statistics? No way..
In general I don’t think the statlines from these games tell a whole lot about how the players will do in the NBA, though.
i.e. Krstic
@Crow
I think this is a problem we as fans have been hiding in the backs of our minds for a while. We are hoping that it is simply a matter of poor offensive system, but there is a legitimate chance that the team simply does not put enough value on players who can score efficiently.
I don't think statss in the German league are much more telling than stat's in Summer League. Basically, good production is the baseline. If you have good stats, you can go either way in the NBA; might make it, might not. If you have bad stats, you have no chance.
Turn to TS% and Mahnimi was still first in limited minutes of course. Krstic slips to 72. Mullens 118.
I think Presti and Co values a lot of worthwhile things. But they don't seem to emphasis FG% or shooting talent as much as others.
Greg :@justin Did you just look beyond statistics? No way..
I don't really think stats in the Worlds are as meaningful for a prospect like Pleiss who is miles away from being NBA ready. For someone like Ricky Rubio, I'd be scrutinizing his stat line a little bit more. In general I don't think the statlines from these games tell a whole lot about how the players will do in the NBA, though.
@Crow
You should check out Mahnimi's stats from this past week, they've been remarkably unimpressive.
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