Daily Thunder.com

I'm happy the old commenting is back. Now I can add my two cents without the extra nonsense.

Thats why my current prediction for the eastern finals is Bucks v Bulls

@Keith

Well Lets agree to disagree. On the Lebron Melo Debate. I think most of lebrons numbers reflect that he was the central focus on that cavs team. As opposed to him being a vastly superior player. In a super team environment that benefits team Melo as lebron's talents tend to improve lesser team mates, but overpower good ones.

If this NY super team does happen. then they wont have to worry about having a lack of passing as chris paul is be pretty good at that.

As for the clutch V the rest of the game comments, i would probably lean toward the clutch players, as i like large rotations, and the idea that team is bigger then individuals, as you have to play your bench eventually.

@jdstorm
I don't think you can actually say Melo-Lebron is a wash. Melo doesn't have assist numbers like Lebron because he's just not nearly as good at it. Also, head to head outcomes are inherently flawed because like you said, it is a team game. Take the last game the two played as an example. Lebron put up 43-13-15, with 2 steals and 4 blocks. Melo put up 40-6-7, with 1 steal and 2 blocks. Obviously Lebron was the better player, but Denver won. Melo and Lebron also don't generally guard each other a lot for full games, so it's not like one is truly beating up on the other. It's often been the case that Lebron was let down by his supporting cast against Denver.

Further, Carmelo is NOT easier to build around than Lebron. Carmelo needs a strong PG, needs a stronger leader than himself, and doesn't play very good defense. A Melo-Lebron dual between superteams would likely favor Lebron even more as Melo would not be able to take it easy on defense since every player around his position is a superstar. If both Lebron and Melo are forced to defend each other for a full game, you can bet that defensive difference in their games will show up a lot bigger.

4th quarter metrics have their use, and I'm not going to debate that Melo is a very good 4th quarter guy. However, every other metric out there says Lebron is the superior player for the whole of a game. Being better for the first 36 minutes has a greater impact (up to three times as great) than being better for the last 12. I hate to bring it up, but look at Jeff Green. If it's the last few plays of the game, I want him in. But if I could upgrade his overall performance at the expense of those late game heroics, I would do it in an instant. Late game heroics only matter when the game is tight at the end. If we were the 2-4 points better per game up to that point that a superior player could have us at, no late game heroics would be needed.

@jdstorm

Won't the greater depth tend to make it less likely that they increase from 4 players over 25 minutes to anything higher? I'd think so from one perspective but I guess it comes down to the quality of Harden and Ibaka vs the starters and the other depth and how much those 2 get used.

The Bobcats were #1 on defensive efficiency, the Thunder 8th. I guess few players playing 25+ minutes a game allows for more use of defensive specialists and perhaps greater average defensive intensity but still is this a significant design concern with regard to the playoffs?

@Crow
I think thats to be expected. it feels more like a stage of roster design. that should change this year as we have more depth.

I think the inside shot numbers also reflect roster composition, and hopefully should change sometime this year with the addition of Cole and Serge's improvement.

The Thunder tied with the Bobcats for the least number of players regularly playing 25+ per game at 4. Is this a function of "stage of roster design" or direct philosophic choice?

And with such players, the Thunder got a lower proportion of inside shots from the big men (PF and C) than any western playoff team, though its overall team inside shot numbers were good at least during the regular season. Not sure about the playoffs at the moment but that is a concern.

I just hope he doesn't end up in orlando. because if he does, they may be unstoppable

@DSMok1

Regarding your analysis of expected impact of rest days on the schedule, those are pretty small difference but worth seeing.

Some other related ideas / issues:

1) How do things look if you isolate weekend rest days from weekday? Who works more weekend games (by the combination team choice, arena availability issues or league choice)? Who gets an edge from that?

2) How do weekend rest days correlate to market or arena size or average weekday / weekend ticket sale ratios at those arenas?

3) How does it look if you correlate rest days to distance from geographic center of the league, conference and division? How much of these impacts are driven by geography?

4) What if you shift from "rest days" as currently defined to no travel days or days with less than 1 or 2 hour flight time? Does the impact range expand? I'd think it would.

@Keith

Melo and Lebron is a Wash, and their head to head record actually favors Melo. While Lebron is a better passer, Melo is one of the few guys who can get buckets on lebron any time he wants, and could outscore him. in a shootout.

Advanced metrics also have Carmello as a better 4th quarter player then Kobe, Lebron and Wade. Lebrons Assist numbers are so high because he has been his teams primary ball handler. since melo doesn't have that responsibility on his team he can let one of his team mates handle that.

Basketball is a team game, and Melo is an easier player to build around. if he gets traded to the right team, because he doesn't over-handle the ball, can play off the ball, has a reliable jumper, and a working post game.

The Miami situation has thrown every star for a loop. They look around at a team they thought might have a chance before, and realize what it now lacks. Does Paul demand (or not, depending on whom you believe) a trade if Miami never went down like it did, or does he play out his contract as the savior of NOLA and then say he's done everything he can and move on if they haven't gotten to the top? Does Melo really want out of Denver (where he is the man and gets to shoot all the time) if he didn't think he could swing his own super team?

Something just as well to keep in mind is the decision of owners and GMs. They are as affected by the Miami situation as players. Is Denver, who intends to try winning a championship in the next 5 years, going to ok a deal that creates a SECOND super team? Is NOLA going to do the same? It would just be dumb. It's one thing to trade a player for assets, it's entirely another to handicap your ability to compete for a championship by building another team into a contender.

If Denver trades Melo, it won't be to NY. Why? Because NY has nothing to offer, and a dozen other teams would take the chance (or at least take on the expiring contract) for more than NY can offer. And Denver would be stupid to accept less than their franchise player is worth. That is, unless they want to be the next Memphis Grizzlies.

My two cents is that Melo feels left out. His 03 draft buddies all went and teamed up without him. Worse, he's always the second thought from that class. Everyone knows Lebron is the best, everyone saw Wade leat the Heat to a title, everyone considers Bosh one of the best big men in the game. With Melo, it's always been, "Yeah, he's good, but is he really elite?" To which there's no easy answer.

Melo doesn't want to sit back and watch these guys that get the press over him also hoist the trophy while he "wastes" away on a pseudo-contender in Denver. So of course he wants to make a super team of his own.

But then, look at Paul-Melo-Amare. Paul is tremendous, no doubt. He's one of the few players actually on the Lebron-Wade level. But match it all up, and that "super" team isn't going to hold a candle to Miami. Let's say Paul and Wade are about a wash. Even if you give a healthy Paul the slight edge, it is just that, slight. Lebron is miles better than Melo, and Bosh is miles better than Amare. They would have as little or less of a bench, meaning the top three are everything.

I think the Carmelo situation shows how quickly things can change. They surprised everyone by going to the WCF two years ago, and I remember people saying they made it there a year ahead of schedule. Then last year happened and they fell apart after Karl left, now they seem as likely to implode as anyone.

Of course, it's not that simple, but wow... At least their troubles bode well for the Thunder.

I'm thinking, and of course this is only speculation, but a team with CP3,Amare and Melo would be pretty poor defensively, and with D'Antoni mostly emphasizing offense over defense (even though his Phoenix teams weren't terrible defensively) that you could make a case, a very strong one, that teams that don't play great defense don't win championships. So they could beat the hell out of people in the regular season and die a slow death in the playoffs.

i'd be fairly interested to see how cp3/melo/and amare would do in nyc, but not near as interested as i would be to see how the nuggets are without him...and how much it would help us...

im all for the knicks super team, im a fan, just like if i was a miami fan id be all for it.

Let NYK get a mega team. Miami and NY can beat each other up before the Finals.

The elephant in the room for CP3 is Okafur. NOLA won't trade him away without the team taking Okafurs contract. Does NY have room for Melo, Amare's max, CP3, and Okafur? I think a more likely scenario would be a Melo-Amare-Tony Parker trio.

@KB
He could very well be traded there. Amare, CP3, and Melo will do everything they can to team up in NY within the next year or so. Here's all you need to know:

A series of toasts at the wedding reception, initiated by New Orleans Hornets guard Chris Paul, suggested Anthony leave Denver for the New York Knicks. Paul suggested it playfully, one source said, but subsequent guests -- including Knicks power forward Amare Stoudemire and Anthony's brother, Robert -- made the point more forcefully.

Then Kroenke stood up to give a toast and the room was filled with an awkward silence, one wedding guest said. Kroenke tried to make light of the situation by suggesting Paul could come to Denver but that elicited no response.

While Anthony stood and applauded Kroenke when he was recognized, he apparently did nothing to discourage or dismiss the suggestions that he should leave the Nuggets.

@Greg
I thought CP3 was a free agent after the 2011-2012 season?

@Greg
As long as it happens in the East, I won't be as worried.

KB :It would be great for us if Melo left. I think that team would fall apart.

I'm all for Melo leaving. What I'm not all for is CP3-Melo-Amare in 2011-12.

It would be great for us if Melo left. I think that team would fall apart.

if melo goes to NY himn and amare would be good together. Plus it makes our division weaker, even the distraction will help somewhat.

I dont think that the wins will be as hight his year for seeding, not all teams will be 50 win teams, so 54 wins might be enough for a two seed

I did some quick analysis on rest days in the schedule over at Real GM:
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=34...

The Thunder's schedule is a positive when comparing their rest days to opponents' rest. Worth only about 0.12 pts/100 possessions, though, or about 0.25 wins on the year.

@Mark!

Agree with everything you said, but his taking off balance, leaning jumpers and not setting his feet properly, and sometimes not even squaring up just lends to the inconsistency of his shot. Part of being a good jumpshooter is knowing how and when to shoot.

He has to take his time more than anything.

@DSMok1
I think Rose might be better suited for FIBA play since he's a better shooter and his defense isn't as much of a detriment. In any case, Rose is the star and he was always a lock.

@DSMok1
I would say RW is a better rebounder, but Rose is better offensively, especially when it comes to driving to the basket. I havent watched enough of Rose to comment on his defense.

@justin

This is definitely picking nits on my part but I hesitate to just say Westbrook is an inconsistent shooter... sometimes he just chooses to take inconsistent shots.

A good jump shot has as few moving parts as possible. You try to minimize all excess motion. This makes it repeatable, and if its repeatable, then it's practicable. A jump shot is a lot like a golf swing in this regard.

Westbrook's mid range shots commonly come off the dribble -- with speed -- with a very high vertical, often with staggered feet, etc. That is a difficult shot to do the same way every time.

Westbrook is using his athleticism to get separation. He needs to use footwork. It's a reasonable expectation for him to improve his footwork and improve his midrange as a result. I'm not worried about midrange in general. I just wish he wouldn't take the shot as previously described. I hate it when he hits it because it gives him confidence in that shot when no player has any business taking shots like that.

Watch Rose highlights for examples of solid footwork creating space followed by a solid jumper.

I think Westbrook has good mechanics on his jumpshot when he isn't taking them at speed off the dribble. I really love his catch and shoot game off the ball, but our offense rarely ever allows for him to do that. Sadly.

Serge Ibaka’s 17th Sibling :
Westbrook is gone. Rose and Rondo more than fill the quota on guards that can’t shoot.

I would take Westbrook over Rose... Oh well.

Westbrook is gone. Rose and Rondo more than fill the quota on guards that can't shoot.

@Deseps
I think the chances are pretty good KD is the only Thunderererer on the final roster. Gordon and Curry have both shot the ball well recently, and it looks like Westbrook would be behind both Rondo and Rose. Since Billups is being brought along for veteran leadership, it's pretty hard to see where RW would get any minutes.

Whoops, forgot to sign in ^^^

Can't argue against the facts. Thanks for the breakdown.

@KB

We tend to remember the games that were good and not recall the games that were bad. But here are the facts.

From March 2nd to April 14th, Russell made 3 field goals from 10-15 feet only once. He made 2 field goals from that distance only twice. So from real short mid range to the free throw line (15 feet), he wasn't prolific at all.

Russell took far more shots from beyond the free throw line (16-23 feet). But he still only had four games where he hit 3 or more shots from that distance. The two big games for him were consecutive, where he went 4-6 and 4-5 against Utah and Charlotte. Other than that, looking at the game log there isn't anything that stands out or says 'Russell Westbrook was "killing" teams with that shot'.

Here is the game log and you can look for yourself: http://www.hoopdata.com/gamelog.aspx?player=Russel... Westbrook

You'll notice that for a lot of the good games he has, he has ones where he'll go 0-6, 2-6, 1-4, 1-3, etc. It comes down to the same thing: he's a terribly inconsistent jump shooter.

If I hadn't seen any stats I thought for sure Russ improved that mid range pull up jumper, it just seemed like he hit it more often in the latter parts of last season. I'm surprised by the stats. I would like to see a game by game breakdown because I know he had some games where he killed teams with that shot.

@Mark!
I'm not defending anybody. I wasn't talking about the playoffs. I was talking about the end of the season. We all saw Russ grow in confidence with that free throw line jumper. He hit it with a little more consistency. I thought we all saw that.

He's not a good shooter though and a two percentage point improvement isn't something to do flips over. And like someone mention, that improvement was because of Russ's ability to finish at the rim for the most part.

The worst part of the article is that Darnell smugly states that if you 'look beyond the stats' you would see he's a better jump shooter. I'm sure you could convince yourself of anything if you ignore all objective evidence that does not support your position!

@Mark!

Exactly. As a scorer, Russ' big improvement last year was finishing at the rim. His jumper was marginally better, but still so inconsistent that cherry picking good shooting months to justify Darnell's argument is a little ridiculous.

@DSMok1
SBNation's comment system blows any other blog's out of the water for high volume commenting.

Question for you gurus out there - if Denver did a sign and trade before this season with someone what's the realistic expectation that they can get back? I'm just curious what they would like this year without a disgruntled Melo.

"Now I think it was pretty clear that in the last month or two, Westbrook hit that midrange jumper with a lot more consistency. But is he a better shooter overall? I think that’s yet to be determined."

Westbrook hit 58% near the rim against the Lakers in the playoffs.

Everywhere else inside the arc, Westbrook hit 40%.

Compare that to 2008-09 regular season (37.0%) and 2009-10 regular season (37.4%)

Is that really an impressive jump? Even taken on its own? Nevermind that it's a very small sample size. Or that it's a very selective sample taken against a team that everyone knew before, during and after the series couldn't guard Westbrook.

Don't defend Mayberry. That article was a joke. And Westbrook is a big boy; he does a lot of things really well. Mid-range jumpshoting isn't one of them. I hold my breath everytime Westbrook pulls out his patented running Westbrick shot. Be honest. You do too.

SIDE NOTE: J.R. Moehringer(who followed Lebron) is a really great author and I would recommend reading his memoir, THE TENDER BAR, or OPEN by Andre Agassi in which he co-wrote.

Anyone know if we will get an alternate uniform this year?

@justin

My guess is Carmelo continues to play hardball until the extension deadline. I'm sure he'd like to be traded to NYK and get a max extension there. But if something hasn't been done and the deadline looms, we'll see how Carmelo really feels about the money.

He went with the money the last time he got extended instead of taking the 3 year deal like Lebron and Wade counselled.

The Docter :
Royce, nice piece on “The Decision,” over on CBS.

Well thank you very much.

Greg :

The Docter :Royce, nice piece on “The Decision,” over on CBS.

Link?
And also thanks Royce for the switch back. Much appreciated.

http://nba-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssports.com/mc...

If I had to specuulate on Melo's motives, I'd say he's none to happy about the stagnation in Denver. A lot of teams got better this offseason and I'm guess he wants to make a move that will put him back in the spotlight.

Also, glad to have the old comment system back. I still was unable to comment from my phone... and I noticed a dropoff in traffic here during the experiment.

@Greg

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/...