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The burden of expectation

Anytime training camp and preseason can be seen on the hardwood horizon a certain level of excitement begins percolating throughout a franchise’s organization, the team and the fan base. And that excitement is usually directly proportionate to what level of expectation all three groups have for the team in the upcoming year.

And as commenters justin and Kivman discussed recently, the expectation to succeed and win at a playoff-caliber level will be entirely new to this team and their fans. In fact, you could even argue that this upcoming season will be a better determinant for if the Thunder will compete for a spot at the top of the NBA’s pecking order for the next five-to-six years (at least) because being an elite, championship contending team means having a target on your back.

Last year the Thunder was the surprise of the league in terms of exceeding expectations, a fact accentuated by Scott Brooks winning Coach of the Year. No one, especially not the fans, expected the team to make the playoffs, let alone be only five games back from the number two seed when the season ended.

Everyone except the players. But, honestly, I thought they were crazy. “3-29?! And they expect playoffs?! Oh don’t do that to yourselves.” I’m sure almost everyone thought something similar last year when they heard Durant discussing the team’s goal in training camp.

And it’s this unique dynamic between a team’s belief and the expectations placed upon them by their fans and their competition that can make or break a season, influencing if the year was considered a success and that a team’s future is bright, or if the year was a disappointment and everyone heads into the off-season with a sour taste in their mouth.

Since the Thunder had such low expectations for last year, anything and everything that went right, from Durant’s 25 point streak to Westbrook’s increase in assist production to Ibaka’s surprising development to the 9 game winning streak, it all was icing on the cake. We, as a fan base, had prepared for the worst. Reduced our expectations to a very plausible 34-38 win season and in doing so, lowered our ability to be disappointed. So the euphoria of last year was almost celestial to a sports’ fan who had come to expect pretty egregious basketball.

But that’s all been thrown out of the window now. After a 50 win season,  a vastly entertaining playoff series against the trophy winning Lakers, and an off-season that saw the Western Conference finalist Suns take a giant step back while many West All-Stars headed to the East, the Thunder is expected to compete for home-court advantage and build upon last year’s remarkable turnaround.

But all of this expectation serves as a potential source for heartbreak and disappointment, let alone the bullseye it paints on the back of the Thunder jerseys now that there won't be a single NBA team in the league who overlooks the boys from Oklahoma City.

And it’s not just the team as a whole, either. Durant is considered by many to be the favorite for MVP (some say Kobe), Westbrook’s performance against the Lakers has raised the bar for his development as an impact point guard, Serge Ibaka will be under heavy scrutiny to see if he can take the next step in his progress and plenty of critical eyes will be cast towards Scott Brooks to see if he becomes the next COY victim.

So what do you expect?

Certain Thunder players have discussed home-court advantage as the goal, which would necessitate a much improved record against other Western Conference playoff teams than the team experienced last year but that doesn’t sound unrealistic by any stretch. Another thought resonating throughout the fan base is that this team needs to do their best to construct/become a team that can beat the Lakers, an idea that the Cole Aldrich acquisition lends its support to.

But all of this expectation serves as a potential source for heartbreak and disappointment, let alone the bullseye it paints on the back of the Thunder jerseys now that there won’t be a single NBA team in the league who overlooks the boys from Oklahoma City.

All of these lofty expectations and high goals raise the bar for this team’s upcoming season at a time when excitement and interest for the Thunder are undeniably at their highest level ever. Can the team bear the burden of expectation and bring that same intensity and “hunter” focus that they brought last year now that they will be the hunted?

Will the coaching staff be ready and able to adjust to the many schemes they will see now that teams have had a full season to scout and game-plan for the Brooks coached Thunder?

And one last question begs to be asked that not many individuals want to contemplate. If the Thunder get off to a slow or horrible start, or they experience a dreadful losing streak and maybe even don’t make the playoffs next year, what will the fans do? How will this franchise respond?

Because it’s not a question of if a team, organization or fan base will go through hard times or have their fair share of disappointment; that’s merely a question of when. The issue is how those players, the front office and the fans respond during the midst of their despondence that will reveal not only their character, but if they have any championship mettle at all.

And with the training camp and the preseason drawing nearer and nearer, the expectations will probably increase even more. That’s why this upcoming season will reveal more about the Thunder, from the front office to the end of the bench, and the Thunder fans than anything that we’ve seen thus far.

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Mark! :

Royce Young :

Anonymous :I dont mind political ads, but that ‘cartoon yourself’ is borderline nsfw. I had to hit refresh to get another ad up, I hope this doesnt become an ongoing issue, because i’ll have to stop visiting at work..and I can’t install firefox as I’m at work.

Don’t worry, it shouldn’t.

Dunno why you don’t think it will be. I’ve seen that same ad on the sidebar consistently over the past few days; it’s on cycle. I’ve seen other google ads that are less tame than that one for similar products in the past on other sites.

Good grief. The ads aren't permanent. I put a few on just get a look at how they work within the template. Plus Google ads rotate off every week or so.

Expectations (unbiased, of course!)...

- Team starts hot, stays hot & places 3rd in the western conference.
- Durant continues to improve all around game, efficiency & reduce turnovers.
- Westbrook makes the all-star team with CP3, Williams... just ahead of finally aging Steve Nash who struggles with his now crappy team.
- Ibaka takes over the starting PF job by the all star break sending Green to the 6th man role.
- Harden wins the starting SG job but Sefolosha continues to log significant minues.
- Cole Alrich starts from the 1st game on & Nads has trouble getting 10 minutes a game because Dirty Nick Collison continues to do what it takes to win games off the bench.
- Mo Peterson never gets off the bench & is let go at the deadline.
- Mullens shows promise, enough promise that the faithful begin debating Nick Collison's expiring contract & long term future with the team.
- DJ White & Maynor shine so much during their limited minutes that certain of the faithful intiate underground & secretive movements demanding they get more playing time.
- Cook sets a new NBA records for 3pt shooting at 63%, a PER of 41 but still can't get more than 12 minutes a game.
- Ivey beats the crap out of both Westbrook & Maynor every day during practice but he only gets to play limited minutes in 42 games this season.
- Jeff Green makes the USA World Tournament team, sinks the championship winning basket, plays more minutes than anyone on our team not named Durant & fans continue to call for his immediate trade or release.
- Scotty Brooks, after spending part of his summer on a ranch with a certain Zen master, learns how to coach during game.

Royce Young :

Anonymous :I dont mind political ads, but that ‘cartoon yourself’ is borderline nsfw. I had to hit refresh to get another ad up, I hope this doesnt become an ongoing issue, because i’ll have to stop visiting at work..and I can’t install firefox as I’m at work.

Don’t worry, it shouldn’t.

Dunno why you don't think it will be. I've seen that same ad on the sidebar consistently over the past few days; it's on cycle. I've seen other google ads that are less tame than that one for similar products in the past on other sites.

I don't think it's clear how much Cole Aldrich would help our PnR because a lot of the problem is how our guards run it. He'd probably be better than Serge or Krstic, though.

BREAKING NEWS:
Brett Favre is retiring.

Say it ain't so...

Weaver signs with Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Greg :

Davy :@Greg @justin Do you guys feel like Cole will improve our PnR? I didn’t watch him enough at Kansas, but he seems like a great, smart baskeball player with decent hands. What do you think?

Yes. He’s already better than Krstic and Ibaka at PnR. It should only get better in time as well.

If Aldrich can be Kevin Love on the boards and can be a tough nosed defender that would be perfect. Love is quite a bit more athletic but Aldrich is taller and longer.

Davy :@Greg@justin

Do you guys feel like Cole will improve our PnR? I didn’t watch him enough at Kansas, but he seems like a great, smart baskeball player with decent hands. What do you think?

Yes. He's already better than Krstic and Ibaka at PnR. It should only get better in time as well.

@Greg

@justin

Do you guys feel like Cole will improve our PnR? I didn't watch him enough at Kansas, but he seems like a great, smart baskeball player with decent hands. What do you think?

Heat opening in Boston Oct. 26th.

The Lakers scheme was excellent, and they had the talent to execute. BUT Durant missed a considerable amount of open shots, he rushed shots, and he just didn't look comfortable during stretches on offense. Artest's defense is partly responsible for this, but I think Durant had troubles shaking the playoff nerves.

I agree with Justin Harden needs to start, or see starter minutes (~30) for our offense to take the strides necessary to become legit contenders. We all know last off season was significantly all defense, and we went from one of the worst to one of the best in the league. I think our halfcourt offense should improve with adequate instruction this off season, expanding sets, etc. It's not rocket science that there will be more of an emphasis put on offense, it's just to what extent.

Greg :@justinYou make it sound as if that’s an easy task. All a team has to do to beat us in the postseason is “ignore everyone except Durant and sometimes Harden on the perimeter”? I disagree. The Lakers had a strong game plan, but they also had one of the best defenses in the league and two giants to expose our greatest weakness. How many other teams can execute that game plan with the firepower of the Lakers? Very few defensively, and none in the post.
Do you really think Durant is going to shoot 35% in the playoffs next year? Absolutely not. Some of the best players to ever play the game struggled in their playoff debut. Durant is a rising superstar, I expect much better out of him next time around. Luckily he kept us in it with his defense and rebounding. Not to mention next time against LA there will be more Ibaka and Harden. Both are Laker-killers.

For Durant to succeed in a similar situation he would have to improve a lot as an isolation scorer. Maybe that will happen, I think it's OK to expect some improvement there. But, with the team as currently constructed, it's still going to be difficult to get points against a defense that is forcing us to take long jump shots. Teams like Dallas and Portland have been successful at defending us in similar ways that the Lakers did. Dallas liked to trap Durant a lot. Portland did that too. Kobe Bryant didn't guard Thabo Sefolosha all series. Jeff Green was given a five foot cushion. It's tough to win like that when you're unable to hit those jumpers.

Kevin Durant might not shoot 35% again from the field, but I don't see him being ultra successful against a defense like the Lakers when he has no help. He's not that kind of player, yet. With better shooting to spread the floor, and better scheming to get him free (i.e. double screens suggested by Joe) then he could be a lot more successful. Our vanilla, predictable half court offense won't cut it, though.

This burden is part of life as a professional of any kind. When you perform well, that is what is expected of you. This should not be a scary thing for Thunder fans. This is the essence of the NBA. Every team in the offseason tries to get better and tries to win more each season. We are blessed to have fun, hard-working YOUNG players. Things look to be headed up but every season is going to be a challenge, whether you're the Lakers or the T-Wolves.

Well, one of the things the Lakers do is that they zone up on the strong side of the court and play man on the weak side. So the ballhandler is facing a zone per se and is forced to shoot over, or drive through (Westbrook was nails at this as you remember) or worse yet, make long cross court passes. Double screens work really well like I mentioned before, but we don't utilize them much or at all. So when KD had the ball up top or on an elbow, he was shadowed by Artest, but he was also facing a mini zone; it's a great scheme.

If I were facing the Thunder I would do the same thing. I would play zombie defense on KD and force him into really tough shots and also force the rest of the team to beat me. As constructed, you would have good odds against the Thunder.

justin :
Starting Harden seems like a good start, and something that needs to happen eventually to open up the offense unless we see major improvement from Durant from long mid range + Westbrook from everywhere.
I’d like to see Green in PnR action with Westbrook, he’s a good finisher and has decent hands. Sticking him in the corner which is what we usually do doesn’t seem like the best use of his skills.

All true.

@justin
You make it sound as if that's an easy task. All a team has to do to beat us in the postseason is "ignore everyone except Durant and sometimes Harden on the perimeter"? I disagree. The Lakers had a strong game plan, but they also had one of the best defenses in the league and two giants to expose our greatest weakness. How many other teams can execute that game plan with the firepower of the Lakers? Very few defensively, and none in the post.

Do you really think Durant is going to shoot 35% in the playoffs next year? Absolutely not. Some of the best players to ever play the game struggled in their playoff debut. Durant is a rising superstar, I expect much better out of him next time around. Luckily he kept us in it with his defense and rebounding. Not to mention next time against LA there will be more Ibaka and Harden. Both are Laker-killers.

We need more movement in our sets, really. Without strong perimeter shooters, we have to manufacture more looks at the rim. Our offense isn't really geared for that since our PnR stinks and our front court players don't move the ball all that well. Against a good defensive team, we basically have to either get them in transition a lot or get lucky from the perimeter.

Starting Harden seems like a good start, and something that needs to happen eventually to open up the offense unless we see major improvement from Durant from long mid range + Westbrook from everywhere.

I'd like to see Green in PnR action with Westbrook, he's a good finisher and has decent hands. Sticking him in the corner which is what we usually do doesn't seem like the best use of his skills.

@Greg

The Lakers had a strong game plan. They ignored everyone except Durant and sometimes Harden on the perimeter. That's really all you have to do against us and you'll win in the long run (seven game series).

@Greg
And I'm referring to the previous season, 08-09, when Green shot 39%. Now that he struggled quite a bit, his freedoms could be tempered to an extent. Likely by way of an emphasis on getting to the hoop.

After watching the OKC-LA series, one thing that really stood out to me was our young guys really struggled with their composure, offensively, and that was mostly indicated by the shot selection. Particularly Durant at times. You could tell sometimes when our guys when we were on offense that it was our first go at this thing. A lot of guys in their first few years don't always take the best shots, but often times the players who are smart and have the capability, see improvements in that area.

After shooting 39% from the 3-pt, I think Green was given a pretty long leash and maybe too much of a green light from beyond the arc. I think schematically, or simply telling him he needs to go to the hole more and not settle for jumpers, some sort of an adjustment should occur. One thing a player of only three years in the league can improve on, is shot selection. We saw it last year with Josh Smith, and Green is a heady player so I anticipate him improving some in that regard. And obviously Green isn't the athlete of Smith, not saying that.

I just hope we don't do any "outs" (white-outs, blue-outs) during the regular season. That should be for the playoffs, and playoffs only. A Thunder tradition, so to speak.

I don't mind the politcal ads, or the cartoon yourself ads. The stubhub ad, however, is deeply offensive to me as it is borderline fhduej. Please remove all sponsors from this site so I can read it on company time, immediately.

We looked super vulnerable when Harden went down last year for a week and a half.

Yoni from Israel :
Theres no such thing as being ready for dissapointment.I dont believe theres one Thunder fan that doesnt think were top 4 west material next season so itll be pretty devastating if we dont make the playoffs.

I think we are "potentially" top 4, but it's by no means a given. Health is huge for us. If KD went down, or Westbrook, or Ibaka I think we would see our team win totals drop significantly. That's why we play the games. We aren't good enough to just keep on rolling like some of the great teams do when the big pieces go down. But, I think that the system, the template that Presti/Brooks is working with is such that down the road we will have a very experienced and capable stable of bench players that won't miss a beat if somebody other than KD goes down. There's no replacing him of course, but just about anybody else might be somewhat replaceable down the road. We shall see.

Anyone hear any rumors/leaks on the 2011 schedule?

Theres no such thing as being ready for dissapointment.I dont believe theres one Thunder fan that doesnt think were top 4 west material next season so itll be pretty devastating if we dont make the playoffs.

Anonymous :
I dont mind political ads, but that ‘cartoon yourself’ is borderline nsfw. I had to hit refresh to get another ad up, I hope this doesnt become an ongoing issue, because i’ll have to stop visiting at work..and I can’t install firefox as I’m at work.

Don't worry, it shouldn't.

Tyreke Evans makes the highlight reels even in the offseason I guess, with the police lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TD2iDfmlXk&NR=...

It would appear he drives like he plays: fast and loose!

To get into top 3 in the west on these measures the Thunder have to pass 5 teams.

Doing better against the better teams is far more important in the long-run. An extra regular season win counts the same regardless who it comes against but come the playoffs it is generally the teams who do better against their own conference and the better teams who went farthest.

The western conference finalists last season were the two best against the west and top 16 and best and tied for third best against the top 10.

The eastern conference finalists last season were the best and third best against the east and 2nd and 3rd best against the top 10 and the best and third best against the top 16.

Last season they were tied for 8th best in the west against the west and also 8th best in the west against the league's overall top 10 and top 16.

I guess the good news is that their record wasn't considerably weaker against the better teams relatively speaking to what other teams do with those levels of opponents.

There are two ways up- do better against the better teams or the weaker teams.

30 games in there will probably be some trends worth talking about.

Early in the season they play the east with greater frequency I think. The east was quite a bit weaker than the west last season but it may not be as much of a factor this season.

Also we don't know if thabo went to bruce Bowen camp and learned how to hit an open 3pt shot from the corner

@ Justin

I don't think u can start harden right away... But I would say maybe 40 games in if he has proven that he can exceed with the minutes he has and is ready to take on more minutes and responsibility.

With that being said.... I think it can be like somewhat similar to what San Antonio does with the manu.

Joe :I was rewatching a late season Boston game saved on the DVR; and it struck me just how excellent our defense was this last season. Our offense is so bland and vanilla, but that defense and team shot-blocking and getting to loose balls is just really something. If we improve, it needs to be on the offensive end, because a small jump there with our continued stellar defense will be the way to go.
It’s a great contrast. When Boston wants to get Pierce or Ray ray a shot, they use a double screen and motion. When we want to get KD a shot, we use a single screen and a quick curl more often than not. We really need another dependable scorer on the first unit because if KD isn’t making those shots, its a long long night.

Agree 100%. This is why I think James Harden needs to start...

I really think this will be the year that KD starts to "get it" and learns how to close out tight games. I just have a good feeling about how the Team USA thing will help him in this regard.

I'm trying to go into this season with an open mind. Frankly, I'm prepared to be disappointed due to injuries and other factors that could lower the team's win total.

I really hope Brooks can keep his guys focused on the day-to-day work instead of fan/media hype and heavy expectations. Granted, the goal should be to improve upon last year... but the important thing is to focus on getting better from game to game... and on not letting the defense slide just because the points come easier (and they will).

Steve H :Why is there an anti-Obama ad/link on this page? Infusing divisive political crap like that is the last thing this site needs.

As long as it is anti-Obama it's cool.

Steve H :
Why is there an anti-Obama ad/link on this page? Infusing divisive political crap like that is the last thing this site needs.

It's just a Google ad. I don't have control over what goes up there.

I was rewatching a late season Boston game saved on the DVR; and it struck me just how excellent our defense was this last season. Our offense is so bland and vanilla, but that defense and team shot-blocking and getting to loose balls is just really something. If we improve, it needs to be on the offensive end, because a small jump there with our continued stellar defense will be the way to go.

It's a great contrast. When Boston wants to get Pierce or Ray ray a shot, they use a double screen and motion. When we want to get KD a shot, we use a single screen and a quick curl more often than not. We really need another dependable scorer on the first unit because if KD isn't making those shots, its a long long night.

@Steve H
Install Firefox... then get the Ad-Block-Plus add-on. You won't see those adverts ever again.

Regarding expectations, I think it's going to be interesting to see how quickly sentiment turns against OKC if it ever appears that they will fail to meet these new lofty expectations. Will people still be supportive or opt to criticize everything ad nauseam?

Every team attempts to improve from season to season (well, except the TWolves and Cavs). These teams are expected to show improvement next year, but there is still a fixed number of games to be played and not all teams will improve. The reaction towards team hurdles will allow us to see if these are real fans or just fan-boys who think the grass would be greener if things get shaken up.

Think about how quickly people in Houston turned against TMac because of injury. Or how Richard Jefferson morphed from a classy and heady veteran into a perceived fool for opting out of his final year of contract due to one bad season.

@justin
Oden says he'll be back by training camp, Yao probably shouldn't be counted on even if he claims to be healthy before the season starts.

@Keith

I don't expect anything but you never know. I'd like to know what the status of Yao and Oden are, for one.

Why is there an anti-Obama ad/link on this page? Infusing divisive political crap like that is the last thing this site needs.

@DSMok1
I would like to think further improvement by specific players (Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka) can at least offset the likely stints of other players on the injury list from time to time.

@justin
I think any expectation of significant change would be foolish at this point, so I don't think it is too early or hazy to begin formulating a sense of what we have and compare it to what we will face.

The offseason is not over so it is impossible to say.

From an analytical point of view, expecting anything more than 50 wins is probably a bit of a stretch, because more injuries than last year is almost a certainty.