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Durant is highly likely to do very well for a long or really long time even though averaging 30 over 14 years is at least highly unusual. It comes down to is he one of the 3 best of all-time or something less. Something less is usually the better bet in most cases but Durant makes it tough, makes it a bigger possibility. For the theory to have much chance he'll have to elevate into that 33-35 point range first. Only 4 got even close to doing 35 twice and only 2 got even close more than twice. Only one actually fully did 35 pt / game 2 twice. Jordan was just short on his 2nd best season.

This is not a criticism, by the way:@4razr

Justin, you're falling in love with that phrase, "highly unlikely." Justin "highly unlikely" Contrarian.

@Greg

As Crow said, McGrady lead the league in scoring twice only a couple years removed from the age Durant won his first. Nobody in 2003 or 2004 would have predicted McGrady's career going the way it went.

Wing players who play a ton of minutes are susceptible to a lot of injuries, you just don't know how it's going to play out. To play for fourteen years and drop 30PPG like Royce said would be an extraordinary feat, and a highly unlikely one.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_per_g_career.html

Shaq has slipped back and off as is often the case. Dirk isn't that close at under 23.

KD gets on the board when he hits 15,000 minutes.

Iverson and James also in with LeBron the active leader at 27.8. Only 2 over 30, Jordan, Chamberlain (both barely). So far.

Only 12 guys who played enough to qualify for the leaderboard have averaged 25+ in NBA history. Kobe and Wade are barely in the club. McGrady isn't. Melo is just barely outside.

McGrady was leading scorer per game twice. Top 10 6 times.

Among high school direct to pro players Kobe and Garnett had 20+ pt per game at 30. McGrady didn't get there. Kemp was 20+ at 29 but at 30 it was 18 pts and it fell apart rapidly after that.

I know there are a few other high schoolers out there. Some portion of whom haven't gotten to 30 yet perhaps. I don't think I'll chase them though.

justin :

Joe :I’ve been accused of jumping the gun a few times, but to extrapolate KD’s career stats in this fashion after only 1 scoring title and three years seems kind of ridiculous.

See: McGrady, Tracy.

I think that's an injustice to Durant, on multiple fronts.

Joe :I’ve been accused of jumping the gun a few times, but to extrapolate KD’s career stats in this fashion after only 1 scoring title and three years seems kind of ridiculous.

See: McGrady, Tracy.

I've been accused of jumping the gun a few times, but to extrapolate KD's career stats in this fashion after only 1 scoring title and three years seems kind of ridiculous.

"reason"

Right. Part of the real for posting an early stat is to try to remember to do it again and see how it changes.

*be

Interesting.... it will bed fun to go through all these when the sample size gets a bit bigger

He is shooting better than his NBA average but he is getting to the line about 1/3rd less than his norm.

Looks like KD's usage rate is about the same as his rate in the NBA when you adjust the stats for the difference in minutes.

@Bryan

Good call. You beat me to the main explanation by a hair. And you are right to add the other one.

I guess being tied for 42nd on minutes per game explains a lot of this, but maybe not all of it.

@Crow
It's only a guess, but I'd say it probably has more to do with minutes than anything. KD only played significant minutes in the Brazil game. And I'd bet that his overall usage rate is less than some other players as well.

But here's the most important thing: I don't think they will call the rip move lol

Make it 19.

At least 16 guys in the World competition are getting more free throw attempts than KD. Fair or not, I don't know; but it could matter at some point.

I know it's off topic, but I was just watching a replay of the Germany, Australia game to check out Tibor Pliess.

First impression, he is very long (visibly bigger than anyone else on the court) and is a nice presence around the rim, contesting nearly everything. He also rebounds well.

However, he looks pretty lost on offense, sets soft screens and has a hard time finding the right spot/timing in PNR situations.

He's not a stiff, but he has a ways to go yet.

NOTE: Germany played like hell after having a double overtime game the night before (which I'll watch next)

Correction: Durant 10th best in league on TS% at "60.7%" last season.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Good call, Jax! I'll have sec.318 screaming for 'em!

@justin

Each season I mean.

Deseps :What about Kareem’s college years? It’s not as if he was sitting home relaxing at the same age KD was playing in the NBA. Do his seasons with UCLA not take any physical toll on him?

Much fewer games / minutes. Even if Kareem played every minute of his college career it'd amount to less than half of a regular season for him (or KD).

What about Kareem's college years? It's not as if he was sitting home relaxing at the same age KD was playing in the NBA. Do his seasons with UCLA not take any physical toll on him?

Cpt. C-Note :
I hope that if we win gold, silver, or bronze at the FIBA WC,(even if we just play hard and together), the fans on opening night in OKC give a round of applause to KD, RW and Derrick Rose for working hard and representing The USA well. Go USA! Go Thunder!

Before the game begins the captains of both teams will meet at half court to sign a ball for a kid. Just remember to start the USA! USA! USA! chants and the crowd will catch on and the players will get the message.

I just want KD to stay healthy and be himself. We're very lucky and proud to have such a class-act as our ambassador and leader.

@Mark!
I can't believe I wanted Rubio as our point instead of RW. I guess Presti and co.are better at player assessment then me. That's why I watch from Loud City and they run the show ;)

OT

I hope that if we win gold, silver, or bronze at the FIBA WC,(even if we just play hard and together), the fans on opening night in OKC give a round of applause to KD, RW and Derrick Rose for working hard and representing The USA well. Go USA! Go Thunder!

Rubio Rubio!

29 minutes, 3:2 A:T, 6 Pts (0/2 3P)
26 minutes, 11:4 A:T, 8 Pts (0/2 3P)
28 minutes, 2:2 A:T, 3 Pts (0/1 3P)
—————————————
83 minutes, 16:8 A:T, 17 Pts (0/5 3P)

Kareem and Malone were the perfect storm of outliers; they both had extreme durability and they both were the focal point of their team's offense.

Shaq has that kind of durability, and he spent most of his career as a focal point offensively, but his poor FT% kept him out of reach.

KD has to be a durability outlier to reach that goal. I hope for his sake he is that durable. It's just not likely.

10th best in league last season at 61.7%. Keeping this up is more important to the team than staying over 30.

Hard to say where Durant will end up on career TS% but his career average would put a bit above Jordan if he qualified and last season was one of the 300 best ever.

Kobe at #126 on career TS% among those qualifying with enough attempts. Jordan 77th.

Kobe was just .001 from his career worst. Probably gets it next season or the one after unless he cuts back on usage enough to compensate.

In his first 2 seasons above 30 years old Kobe's TS% has fallen from his peak of 58% to 56% and now 54.5%.

Miller has one of the most efficient and every season over 30 he was at 57% or better including 3 times at or close to 62%.

Payton was the leader on this for those 6'-5" and under and during those years his teams made the playoffs 3 times but failed to get out of the first round. At 30 his TS% fell below league average and while he was only below by a little or a modest amount a few times after that he was never again above it.

By 30 I mean they were at least 30 at start of the season.

Seasons of over 30 years old and over 20 points per game
(selective listings)

Malone 10
Jordan 6
Ewing 6
Garnett 1
Miller 2
Hakeem 5
O'Neal 4
Payton 5
Stockton 0
Nique 4
McGrady 0
Carter 3

If KD makes the move to PF he'll have a much, much better shot at this.

@justin

"Miller and Payton dropped off as first option scorers well before 40k."

Of course. I was focused on the after 40k tail.

You are right it is combo of age and mileage. The mix matters.

@Greg

I think you're putting too much into age and not enough into NBA experience. Age is kind of irrelevant, actually. The rigors of 3000 minute NBA seasons takes its toll on you faster than age does. Just take a look at guys like Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O'neal. Kobe's even coming down to Earth and he's 'only' 32 years old.

Saying that injury is the only thing in Kevin Durant's way is correct; but injury comes with high minutes and wear on the body. It's just another way of saying that his minutes will catch up to him, and they will.

Kevin Durant's at 1.49 points per minute in his first ~8800 minutes. That's pretty good, but it's not unheard of. Yes. It's incredible what he's done at his age. But looking at some of the first young 18-19 year olds break down in their early 30's, I don't think his age will help him in this matter. He's just going to break down sooner.

Number of over 30 years old and over 20 points per game by age in last 20 years

30 27
31 23
32 15
33 7
34 6
35 3
36 1
37 1
38 2
39 2

A total of 233 player seasons ever of over 30 years old and over 20 points per game. Over the last 20 years an average of 4.5 guys do that each year.

Kobe at about 27 in his first 2 season at over 30 years old. But only 2 others were over 30 years old and over 20 points per game this season. Dirk and Stephen Jackson.

Crow :Make that 10.
Miller fell from PER 17ish to just 16ish after 40k. Stockton didn’t move from PER 22ish til his final year when he ticked down to 21. Payton fell off the most- from PER 21 before 40K to 17after, then 15, 11 and 9. But a large part of the fall was from his usage falling by almost half.

Miller and Payton dropped off as first option scorers well before 40k. Also keep in mind Michael Jordan, Nique, Kareem and Wilt will probably have smaller total minutes than Durant will at comparable ages since he came into the league earlier.

24 averaged 25+ at or after 32. But only 7 at 34 or older and only 7 did 25+ at or after 32 more than once. Malone did it for 4 as did Alex English. Jordan and Dominique 3. Kareem and Wilt only once.

Nobody averaged over 27 pts / g past age 34. Only 3 did it at 34.