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Wednesday Bolts – 6.16.10

Ian Thompson of SI writes that OKC is the most efficient franchise: “Clay Bennett’s payroll is the envy of his fellow owners. For starters, no team has less salary on the books than the Thunder, but look deeper: More than $5 million is covered by an insurance policy on Matt Harpring, whose contract the Thunder took on while netting rookie point guard Eric Maynor in the deal. That leaves the Thunder at $49 million in actual operating costs — or an unheard-of $1 million per win. Of that total, another $8.7 million is paid to veterans Etan Thomas and Kevin Ollie, who rarely play. Boil it all down and their nine-man rotation is making $32.8 million this season in return for the league’s 10th-best record and fourth-stingiest field-goal defense.”

KD, apparently not a fan of JVG: “Man jeff van gundy is tuuuuuuurible…shutup pee wee Herman.”

Darnell Mayberry writes that Solomon Alabi could be the fit for OKC: Solomon Alabi is the low-post defensive presence the Oklahoma City Thunder needs. Well, that’s the pre-draft buzz he’s been generating.The Florida State center looks the part. He’s 7-foot-1 and has a 7-foot-5 inch wingspan tailor made for swatting shots and rounding up rebounds. And he’s even drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon. This is the player many draft experts have projected to land in Oklahoma City when the Thunder comes out of the 2010 NBA Draft.”

KD made his first return to Barry Farms last Sunday: “His performance wasn’t 62-point-esque but Durant’s 35 points raised enough ‘oohs’ and ‘aahs’ from a packed crowd to grade his Goodman League debut as a success. Playing alongside the Washington Wizards’ Andray Blatche, Durant and Blatche dazzled at times “inside the gates” for their 3rd Eye ball club. The Oklahoma City Thunder forward launched the first shot of the game; a three-pointer that grazed off the rim before executing a spin move on his next possession and finishing with a one-handed dunk. That would turn into an ongoing theme for much of the night for the 21-year-old nicknamed “KD.” While his normally reliable jumpshot wasn’t falling, KD was busy attacking the rim and finishing strong with two-handed and one-handed rim rattlers. Clapping his hands after explosive finishes and face-flexing to the crowd.”

Video of KD getting ragged on by a fan at Barry Farms:

And another video, this one with a little actual game footage.

Evan Turner will only work out for the Sixers: “Ohio State’s Evan Turner, who is expected to be the 76ers’ choice with the No. 2 overall draft pick, will work out for the team Thursday. Turner’s agent, David Falk, has said Turner will work out only for the 76ers.”

Thunderland interviewed Kristin Chenoweth: “Stage and screen star Kristin Chenoweth is currently appearing on Broadway in “Promises, Promises,” a musical that happens to boast a song titled “She Likes Basketball.” Chenoweth’s character in the show, Fran Kubelik, is a big hoops fan. And so, it turns out, is the actress herself. “I love basketball,” the Oklahoma native and Oklahoma City University graduate recently told Thunderland by email. “So finally a hometown girl has a team to root for!”

The list of college and international players that have withdrawn from the draft.

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I think Jeff Van Gundy is a very good and insightful, not to mention funny and self deprecating. I enjoy him. Sorry KD, go play, I will watch.

I wasn't going to argue the basic issue, but I guess I started to so I might as well add this:

If you don't look at or want to use Adjusted +/- at all to me you are either saying

a) a player's movement and spacing and rotation of the ball and picks and box-outs and ball saves and pass denials and everything else that isn't in the boxscore does not vary much among players or can be safely ignored,

b) outside the boxscore impacts somehow vary in a pattern consistent with the way players vary on boxscore stats and / or some sort of broad-brush team level adjustment is good enough (this is what Win Produced, Statistical Plus / Minus and Win Shares appears to assume)

c) it can't be estimated indirectly to an acceptable level of accuracy,

d) you can make a better estimate in your head just using video than using Adjusted +/- and video

or e) you prefer to track these boxscore items directly.

I am ok with e. Maybe the Thunder does a lot of this. Some teams like Miami and Orlando do.

I accept that many prefer d, but I don't know that I trust many people to be more right using just tape than what is suggested by looking at Adjusted +/- and parts of it and using video.

I accept that c will remain debatable, though the dismissals of Adjusted +/- are often quick and / or simplistic or quite absolute, moreso than they have proven.

b is an argument that is not often explicitly made and might be ok in general but it will significantly miss the mark for some players just like Adjusted +/- will.

a is clearly wrong to me.

APM - Statistical +/- for a player's individual action= Estimated Impact Beyond The Boxscore. I'd want to know these scores and where the Factor level Adjusted +/- suggests this impact is showing up then watch tape for confirmation or adjustment in that estimate or rejection of all those estimates- as best as you juggle and sort the information from thousands of plays.

I think you can make a better choice at the level of whether to play a guy a lot or don't play this guy a lot or vs. another player with this information than without.
Guys in the middle are the tougher calls but that is always true and knowing these additional things and considering them seems likely to help more than hurt on average to me.

@Bob
APM by itself has no value but when used with other stats it has its uses. no stat is useful by itself. For something like this its useful because we are not watching every kings game to see what they are doing.

I guess that should have been... "make use" of Adjusted +/- specifically...

If they use Adjusted +/- and keep Green as the PF starter then they are choosing to rely more on subjective opinion of him and faith in his development or something else over what Adjusted +/- has said 3 years running.

The current starting lineup is not terrible in general but by Adjusted +/- is not good enough to be unchallenged either, especially against playoff level teams.

So having / looking at something like Adjusted +/- (the public versions or their own brand) is not enough. Apparently overriding it after looking at it or giving it little weight in these cases is different than completely dismissing it and not wanted to even look at it, but not much.

@justin

Of Adjusted +/- specifically or just "advanced stats" in general?

The more teams that win 35, the tougher it will be to break 50 or break it by much. The seeding race will probably be as tight or tighter next season.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

They have a good shot to get better. It may not happen because the west is tough and somebody has to come up short. I think every team in the west but the Wolves can win 30 next season. The Kings could win 35 or 40 if good lineup decisions are made.

@Crow

They were mentioned as a team at Sloan Sports Conference that makes use of the stuff.

I have no idea if the Thunder actually use this or a later version or how much, but I would think it is more likely than not.

@justin

There is no evidence yet that the Thunder use Adjusted +/- for players or lineups at all or give it significant weight- or that they don't.

What they have and use I don't know. I assume it is a lot but probably not "everything" and some things may not be used as much as I think they could or should.

Their consultant did develop and temporarily share a hybrid stat at Protrade that included what a player did individually in combination with a partial share of credit / blame for what happened while they were on the court. It was not Adjusted +/-, it looked like a rule-based system but whether the weights were subjective or based on regression I don't recall.

I know the Kings were bad last year. I know basically everyone on that team will have a poor +/- as a result.

My statement that the team will be scary, nightmare, etc... is because of Evans and Cousins, and the good role players around them.

When Evans was in the game, everyone on the floor knew he was going to get the ball and drive the lane. He was a one trick pony. The thing is no one could stop him. Those types of players concern me. Cousins could be that type of player.

I remember stories that old OU football players under Switzer would tell. When they would line up under center, the linemen would tell the defense "Hey, we're going to run the ball over the left guard. Just thought I'd tell you, since there isn't anything you can do about it anyway." It may be brash, but it was true. If you have two guys that can't be stopped, you just make your role players adjust to compliment that gameplan.

I'm not saying they'll win a championship. But they'll be a headache on the schedule.

Durant had a big efficiency edge over #2 and 3 Green and Westbrook. Evans didn't and in fact Udrih and Landry were notably better.

I think the Kings are a little bit like the Thunder. KD also had a terrible +/- his first two years. In KDs case it was about defense, in Evans case I think it is more about how the team functions with and without him. He is surrounded by role players, not good ones, but at least guys who know their role. When Evans is out, the offense runs more like a well-oiled machine. When he's in, the entire offense devolves into "get that kid the ball!" Our offense actually tends to work in a similar way, albeit with better players.

justin :

Bob :@Crow
Stats dont tell everything. The kings were tanking and please dont use +/- stats. They have zero value.

Whoops. I guess I’ll tell that to all the NBA teams (Thunder included!) that incorporate APM and other advanced metrics in their decision making. I’ll let them know Bob said they have zero value .

Thank you.

With regard to Thunder assist-making there should be plenty of discussion between Westbrook, the coaching staff and the rest of players to determine where Westbrook can pass it or quicker for more assist-making by others, where these other players should be passing it but aren't and where the coaches need to draw up better plays that will lead to better opportunities for after-Westbrook assists.

I am not going to argue their relative value any further than I may have in past posts. Everyone will have their own take. I will mention them though, as I think they should be consulted and have some value when used reasonably alongside everything else.

Bob :@Crow
Stats dont tell everything. The kings were tanking and please dont use +/- stats. They have zero value.

Whoops. I guess I'll tell that to all the NBA teams (Thunder included!) that incorporate APM and other advanced metrics in their decision making. I'll let them know Bob said they have zero value :).

@Crow

Stats dont tell everything. The kings were tanking and please dont use +/- stats. They have zero value.

Their best lineup used 40+ minutes for the season that they can still field was Udrih- Evans- Casspi- Nocioni- Thompson. It won its minutes on a raw basis and was close to neutral on Adjusted +/-.

Evans was not positive with any starter.

When Rodriguez and Evans played together they won at +15 per 48 minutes, though they only were tested together 180 minutes.

Rodriguez had by far their best raw +/- and was in 6 pf their 8 best pairs. He was estimated neutral on Adjusted +/-. I think trading him was a mistake.

League average is 56% and change.

Assisted FGs for the team fell from 58% without Evans to only 50% with.

With Westbrook went from 52% without to 53% with, but 53% is still low and an issue.

@Paul
Evans can't shoot outside is all I'm saying. He gets his points going to the hole. Therefore, to complement him the best, he would need a guard who is more than capabable of shooting the rock outside. Evans does his work in the paint, while the other does their work on the perimeter.

Team offense was the worst with him on the court over any other rotation players. They gave up an offense built around Martin- too much so- to do the same thing- so far- with Evans.

Evans had the team's worst by far Adjusted +/-. That can change fast if the player changes and / or the way he is used and who he is used with changes.

Anyway, 100% impossible hypothetical.

No way do we turnover 3 of our 5 starters in the season following 50 wins + a competitive playoff series vs the Lakers :)

@Mark!

In fact, you could sub Garcia in for Miller and we could still be players in the David Lee sweepstakes.

Sac hasn't found a 5 man lineup that works well. They also didn't try any lineup more than 1.5 minutes a game this season. I haven't checked everybody recently but that may be as diffuse as anybody with only Golden State coming to mind as this diffuse.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.php?year=2009...

That has got to change. They are the opposite extreme of OKC's heavy starting lineup concentration. You learned very little at either extreme. Really they are close to the same outside the one extremely heavily used lineup. Knowing as much as you can about what you perceive to be your best 4-8 lineups makes more sense to me- until you find the one or two that are very good or better.

Thompson isn't going to be traded.
(Teams probably can get Brockman, if you wanted.)

The only thing Sac did well was offensive rebound. They were below average on everything else. They didn't have any bottom 5 Factor rankings though. That is something I guess, a floor to build upon.

How much they rise and how fast will depend on how well they do finding some good lineups and a few Factor strengths.

@Vega

I dunno how terrible it is for us. We can use our extra cap to sign a shooter like Mike Miller (my favorite of the bunch). Use our #32 pick to draft Brackins or Booker, whoever is available.

Westbrook 36 / Maynor 12
Harden 30 / Miller 18
Durant 36 / Miller 12
Ibaka 30 / Booker(Brackins) 18
Cousins 30 / Krstic(Collison) 18

And that's completely ignoring Garcia. Garcia's far from a scrub.

@Greg
I'm not saying Evans is as good a player as Lebron or D-wade but like Lebron and D-Wade, Evans is most effective with the ball in his hands and slashing towards the hoop. So if he has the ball he needs the other guard to be able to hit shots around him. However, the kings also need someone to be able to run the offense and get the ball to Evans. It sounds weird but I think a player like Derek Fisher might be a great fit alongside Evans as well. The Kings don't need another guard to be a great shooter, just one that understands it's not their priority to do anything but hit a few shots a game, not turn it over, play a bit of defense, and keep the offense moving.

@Mark!
Awful trade for everyone but Sacto.

In this impossible hypothetical, OKC's cap assuming KD = Max and Westbrook = $55M/5Y:

2010-11: $44.9M
2011-12: $42.4M
2012-13: $45.4M

Not including draft picks.

Whiteside's free-falling the same way Mullens did last year. He interviews like 13 year old (he's 21), his 227 pound body looks frail and unlikely to put on weight, and he's years away from being able to defend man-to-man. C-USA players like Jerome Jordan (and others) destroyed him--what do you think is going to happen in the NBA? If an NBA coach wants to win he can't put Whiteside on the court--he's going to get isolated and posted-up mercilessly-- for at least 2 years.

@Mark!
Can't see Presti giving up that much and taking on 2 bad contracts. Maybe just for one of Green or Thabo, unlikely he'd ditch both. But for Cousins I think anything could be considered.

Why all the hating on Beno? He's a pretty good player.

SAC (-) Garcia, Udrih, Nocioni, #5
SAC (+) Calderon, Green, Sefolosha

TOR (-) Calderon
TOR (+) Udrih, #21, #26

OKC (-) Green, Sefolosha, #21, #26
OKC (+) #5, Nocioni, Garcia

Personally, I think the Kings should keep the #5

@Paul
I'm not sure Evans needs a combo guard paired with him, after all Evans is a combo guard. IMO Evans should be paired with a sharpshooting guard.

We need to find a way to sign Brian Scalabrine. Just saying. Next year is his breakout season.

I'd just like to state that Udrih isn't actually a bad fit alongside Evans, it's more his contract is bad and they don't have a guard behind those 2. Evans is a lot like Lebron in that he needs a combo PG by him which Udrih is. Or they could try and make a trade for Lou Williams from Philly, but other than that I'm not sure of a lot of cheap combo PGs unless they take Bradley or Bledsoe

@DXL
Pleiss is better used at the 32nd pick that way there isn't such a big deal about their starting salary if he plays well and we want to bring him over.

Mark! :@Jax
Raging Bile Duct
SAC needs a 3P shooter at SG to spread the floor for Evans?
You mean… like Kevin Martin?

Ha! Yes. But like Greg said, someone who doesn't wrestle with Evans for usage.

21) Seraphin or Orton
26) Sanders or Pleiss
32) Pondexter or Ebanks
51) Dexter Pittman or Lazar Hayward

We've got to come out of this draft with 2 or 3 frontcourt players.

@Mark!
Martin has to have the ball in his hands too much for he and Evans to play well together. Martin shoots well, but he also likes to get to the bucket a lot (just like Evans) and is the master of drawing fouls.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

SAC needs a 3P shooter at SG to spread the floor for Evans?

You mean... like Kevin Martin?

@Greg
he is already in la from the clippers, so yeah i could see him going to the lakers

@f5alcon
I think LA will try to go after Blake too. Outside of Sessions (maybe Andre Miller can't remember for sure) who else is there to replace Derek Fisher?

Maynor does not have a lot of value... he'd have to prove he's starter quality before teams give up anything of substance for him.