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The thunder are not going to get any FA. They ate just going to win with the team they have. Which is s pretty damn good team

One other way to think are player PER and contending is can you field PER14 (based on last year) for all your minutes at each position? Thunder can't do that at PG (unless you try Harden) or SG. SF is covered. They'd be pretty close at PF and C though Collison was a little short.

Ultimately a combo PG/SG with a PER14 may be desirable. If Maynor, Thabo, Weaver and others can't do it.

Ron Adams bothers me on several fronts:
1. He was undoubtadly the reason for our defensive turnaround
2. Our we not willing to pay to keep top coaches?
3. I feel, that if we were truly building something special here, i.e. A championship team, that he would stick around to see??

Hopefully he just misses his family in chi-town and I am reading too much in to this..

I guess Adams was on a 2 yr or really 1 & change contract. If they had offered an extension mid-season would he have taken it? Did they? One of the many things we'll never know given the team's style and the local media's style.

Westbrook at this point has the largest chance to hit PER20. Harden or Ibaka? I guess there is some chance. In the near term it will need to be one of these or a newly acquired guy or maybe you can get where you want with 2 PER 17-18s and Durant. Maybe, if it breaks your way.

@The Hitman
weaver is much more turnover prone. he had 4 turnovers in 144 mins, ollie had 6 in 263 mins.

Ilyasova might be someone to watch. Do the Bucks stay committed to him? They've picked up a few other PFs recently.

Weaver can play back up PG in the same way as Kevin Ollie. Just bring the ball up the court, facilitate movement, defend the position and passing the ball to the open man. I reckon he is a good chance to be kept.

The average amount of over PER20s for the champs over the last 5 seasons is 2.6.

There were 57 forwards 6-8+ who were over PER13.5. Green's PER was next to last. If he wasn't next to Durant and Westbrook almost all the time and got more shots his PER would probably be higher. But almost 40% of the guys ahead of him got less shots per minute.

Crow :@Greg
What’s with Arenas? Rumored trade talk or actual trade?

Just rumored talk:
UPDATE: The Magic continue to be a rumored destination for Arenas.

Writes Ken Berger of CBS Sports on Monday: "A person with knowledge of the Magic's plans said a trade for Gilbert Arenas, the one-time superstar whose reputation took a massive hit with his gun suspension last season, remains a 'definite possibility.' GM Otis Smith has a good relationship with Arenas, but a stumbling block could be the fact that Dwight Howard has questions about whether Arenas would fit in. If Howard gets the answers he's looking for, there could be legs to the Arenas-to-Orlando scenario."

@Greg

What's with Arenas? Rumored trade talk or actual trade?

I probably haven't given Westbrook enough credit for the team offensive improvement. There are plenty of reasons but he deserves some credit. If they / he can improve the offensive efficiency by another 5 spots they will be in the top contender zone.

Removing all of Russ' 3pa and making thing 2pa puts his TS% almost exactly at 50%.

Making his 2pa 45% instead of 43.75% ups that to 51%. Those are modest improvements, probably close to what I'd expect from him this year.

Adding more FTA to that on top would probably get him close to 52% TS.

Sonics back then, at the beginning of the run, had a good mix of vets and young guys, and the scoring came from both if you consider Payton, but in the first season of Karl success everybody but Payton and Kemp were over 25 and when they played the Bulls in the finals a few years later it was everybody over 26 except a few very minor bench players and 7 29 yrs and older.

Either your targets or Justin's would put him pretty close.

Westbrook had no gain in getting free throws from season 1 to 2 per game and actually slipped a little per minute. If he wants PER20, getting to the line more is a good way to do it. Then hitting them. That will increase TS%.

@Joshau

It might be pretty close. It wouldn't take that long to calculate but I think I'll just leave it as pretty close.

Russ has another jump to make, and if he makes it he'll be really good. Not Payton good because Russ isn't anywhere near GP's universe as a defensive player, but still real good.

Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Rating are both mostly team-based. The Sonics became a great defensive team his 3rd season with Karl / Kloppenberg. Payton was as good as any other teammate and better than most. I don't recall if it was 100% what it became in year 1 or 3.

Westbrook's team got very good on defense in year 2. He is a part of it but an inconsistent one and probably not near the top despite his ability. He may have benefited some in the team-based stats.

Payton inherited the 8th best offense and got it to 4th in his 3rd year and 2nd in the 4th year. Apart from what he did personally- covered by Offensive Rating and OWS and that is all they cover- he was a very good offensive leader but also one in a good position with lots to work with, a good mix of vets and young guys, but most of scoring came from vets.

justin :
Payton’s first two seasons were before George Karl and before the defense started to get real good. In his third season the Sonics had the 2nd best defense in the league and Payton’s DRTG reflects that.

Thank you. It will be interesting to compare Payton's 3rd and 4th years to Russell's 3rd and 4th years. You could compare Payton's 3rd year to Russell's 2nd, since that is when they both had head coaches that installed a defensive focus for the first time in their careers.

@Joshau

It's difficult to calculate PER that way. I think if Russ increases his TS% gets it to 53%+ then he has a decent chance of making it to PER20 considering all the other stuff he does. But that's a big leap for him.

Wow the Magic are desperate. First Vince Carter, now Arenas..

Payton's first two seasons were before George Karl and before the defense started to get real good. In his third season the Sonics had the 2nd best defense in the league and Payton's DRTG reflects that.

Russ was at a PER 17.90 this year with his FG% at 41.8% and his FT% at 78%; any idea how high his PER would have been if he could have gotten to 43% FGs and back to 81.5% FT (which he shot his rookie year)? Both of those improvements seem pretty reasonable to expect for next year and might bring his PER closer to 20.

At that time Payton hit near his peak on eFG% with a minimally decent 3 point shot to help with that in several ways and his free throw frequency was pretty good.

I hadn't really thought of Westbrook catching or passing Payton and that would be hard to do considering everything including defense and leadership but he is doing pretty well for this early.

@Crow

That comparison surprises me when it comes to the offensive and defensive ratings (rating and win shares: ORtg, DRtg, OWS, DWS). I think I'm surprised because Gary Payton was such a lockdown defensive player and I would have thought his rating and win shares would have been much better than Russell's.

For those who followed Payton's career much closer than I did, when did his defensive abilities start to define his game? And if it was there from the beginning, any reason why it is not reflected well in DRtg or DWS?

Payton got to PER20 in season 5.

That is a useful name.

After 2 seasons compared to Payton,
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tin...
Westbrook the better scorer (on TS%), higher Assist%, lower TO%, much higher usage, higher PER.

justin :He’d either have to seriously improve his scoring efficiency or lower his turnover rate / increase his assist rate more.
blockquote>
I think he can do both. His rate of finishing at the rim is bound to go up, and if his jumper is on the better part of next season (like it was against LA) then that will help a lot. And he made strides with his A/TO ratio last year, that could very well happen again.

justin :I don’t see Russ maintaining a PER20 unless he develops a 3pt shot. He’s just not efficient enough of a scorer.

What about his improving mid-range game? Or improving A/TO ratio? If he improves in those areas, just as he did this past season, as well as finishing at the rim, I'd say he can become a more efficient player. 3pt obviously influences PER, but he can excel in a lot of other areas as long as his development continues.

He'd either have to seriously improve his scoring efficiency or lower his turnover rate / increase his assist rate more.

Gary Payton had seven years straight of PER20 and was never a highly efficient scorer. His turnovers were low, his assists high and he had a high usage. I think that's Russ' easiest path to PER20.

I don't see Russ maintaining a PER20 unless he develops a 3pt shot. He's just not efficient enough of a scorer.

Crow :Can Westbrook get to PER20? About 10 PGs have done it at least once in the last 5 years but only 4 last season.

If he played like he did in the playoffs, then yes. There's still the chance Russ has a couple 4-14's and 5+ turnover games a week. But maybe that can be reduced next season. KD took a giant leap his third season, maybe Russ is poised for the same. If Russ's leap was anything like KD's, 60 wins could be within reach.

Boozer too, though that is much more unlikely.

Less than 30 players league-wide at any position who played 20+ minutes per game and went over PER20.

Lee is one, Love another.

Can Westbrook get to PER20? About 10 PGs have done it at least once in the last 5 years but only 4 last season.

Greg :@justin You’re a smart guy. Playing a stretch PF next to a bruising C is much improved over a stretch PF and a stretch C. Not that hard to see. His weaknesses, mostly on the defensive end, won’t be as exposed. Not saying he’s going to be a completely different player, but slightly more productive wouldn’t be outrageous.

If you haven't figured it out yet Justin HATES all things Jeff Green. Don't take it personal just accept it. There is no discussing it with him.

Utah and San Antonio were the only top teams to fulfill these 3 criteria. Other teams did better so this is apparently not sufficient but still might be a good minimum to try for.

If you are talking design goals in the abstract I'd say you'd want 2 over PER20 and at least 6 total over PER14 and at least a good team defense.

Green isn't a stretch four with his shooting percentages from 16+ feet.

I understand the reasoning and Aldrich would probably help our defensive rebounding problems, but I don't think his presence would really help Green do well in any other capacity.

@justin
You're a smart guy. Playing a stretch PF next to a bruising C is much improved over a stretch PF and a stretch C. Not that hard to see. His weaknesses, mostly on the defensive end, won't be as exposed. Not saying he's going to be a completely different player, but slightly more productive wouldn't be outrageous.

Suns had 2 over PER20, Orlando 1, Boston none.

Thunder at 1.

Portland 1, Utah had 2, San Antonio 2, Dallas 1, Memphis 1 (almost 2), Houston none until Yao returns, New Orleans 1.

justin :So a traditional center will make Green a better mid range shooter, rebounder, and post defender? Gotcha.

Since I said that?

Lakers made it because they had 3 over PER20. Had to have 3 of those and a great defense to get it done with just 4 over PER 14 I think.

So a traditional center will make Green a better mid range shooter, rebounder, and post defender? Gotcha.

For the next couple years we'll be riding Ibaka and Green at the 4 spot. If neither can be productive enough at that position, we should have a lottery pick in 2012 to possibly address that. I feel good about Ibaka and Green though, especially now that they'll be paired with a traditional center.

Durant 26.2
Westbrook 17.8
Ibaka 15.2
Harden 14.0
Green 13.8
Krstic 13.7
Collison 13.1
Maynor 11.6
Sefolosha 9.8

I'd say close to 0%. But it's fun to think about.

justin :With Aldrich in tow, Al Jefferson makes a lot more sense.
Aldrich / Jefferson / Durant / Sefolosha / Westbrook
If you subscribe to the notion that Jefferson would substantially improve his efficiency as a #2 option instead of a #1 option, that’s a balanced, seriously potent lineup.

What do you guess the chances are Presti acquires Jefferson? Higher than 5%?

Green is right on that PER 14 line.