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Monday Bolts – 6.14.10

SLAM’s mock has OKC taking Daniel Orton: “Outside of the statistics, this was a pretty obvious selection. If you’re less than impressed after checking out Orton’s freshman numbers of 13 minutes, 3 points, 3 rebounds and a block you’re not alone. A lackluster freshman year is Daniel Orton exactly why we have the opportunity to snag an athletic big man with enough upside to make Jay Bilas order and chug six consecutive Jager-Bombs with the 21st pick. As usual, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Orton is a home town boy, straight out of Bishop McGuinness high school in Oklahoma City. He was a five star recruit and the biggest signee of the much-maligned Billy Gillispie era at Kentucky. He’ll be at home here – literally — and eager to move beyond last season’s disappointment.”

Ryan Russillo lists his ten most likely draft busts: “Daniel Orton: It is always a challenge evaluating a potential lottery pick that only played 13 minutes per game, but Orton sure seems like an inconsistent player. Granted, he is huge, moves well and is good around the basket, but when he gets caught in traffic with the ball, the possession doesn’t end well. On film, I find myself wondering what he was thinking with some passes, and I rarely have an answer. Orton gets frustrated too easily and can take himself out of games. He is a good team defender, shows on screens, closes out on the perimeter and holds position well, but he goes for a lot of fakes and he needs to cut down on his fouls.”

Because I’ve been asked more than once: Draft preview stuff is coming this week and the next – the official DT big board, a mock (or two) and some other preview stuff. We’re only 10 days away from the real deal.

There was some talking that Kevin Seraphin would withdraw from the draft, but he’s staying in.

Darnell Mayberry says OKC needs to go big: “With Durant, Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Russell Westbrook and Eric Maynor on the wings and in the backcourt, it’s also a much longer shot for a perimeter player to find minutes anytime soon. Although post players take longer to develop than guards, and the Thunder certainly could stand to add more talent on the perimeter to its program, the first priority in June 24 should be to go big. It just might need to be the second option as well.”

Oklahoma City was named the dumbest city in America by one economist: “Rob Pitingolo is an economist who rates cities based on the number of college-degree holders per square mile. He created a list of the 52-biggest cities, called “clusters of smart people”, and put San Francisco on top and Jacksonville just above Oklahoma City, at the bottom.” So we’re the fattest AND the dumbest. There’s an easy joke here about a certain sports radio personality contributing to both those categories in a big way that I’m doing my best to stay away from. (Update: Smart comment from reader Glenn: “The dumbest thing about this is the rating of degrees per square mile. That means absolutely nothing. OKC has a large area compared to most other cities. I found the spreadsheet generated by the crack “economist” (graduated in May 2010) and re-ran it to calculate degrees per number of people in the cities. OKC came out equal to, or better than, 19 well-known cities.”)

Part two of the podcast looking at Sam Presti’s transaction history.

Hoopsworld with a nice list of the 2011 cap clearing contracts: “Nick Collison, $6.8 million: The Thunder are not going to be inclined to trade him, but some team may make them an offer they can’t refuse.”

The mayor’s convention just wrapped in OKC. I found this moderately interesting: “The mayor of a city 20 miles south of Seattle wasn’t shocked when asked about the Seattle Sonics-Oklahoma City Thunder rift. He grinned. “There is a little controversy there,” said Mayor Pete Lewis of Auburn, Wash., “but quite frankly, I’m not built for basketball, it didn’t mean much to me. I’m more baseball and football. If you’re trying to move the Mariners, then you’ve got a problem.”

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Those are high numbers. Harden would probably need in excess, maybe well in excess, of 30 minutes and 12 shots per game to average those numbers. It exceeds what he did per 36 minutes this season on Pts,Rebs and Asts.

Over scrutinizing Hardens shooting is hardly helpful or insightful for a rook. Every rook is streaky. He will improve immensely this year. Im asure he will lead teh team in scoring on a half dozen nights. He might even be the second leading scorer on teh team this year.

Harden next year: 17.8 Pts, 5.7. Rebs, 3.9 asts 37+% from 3

@BryanS
Uh, who cares what Mayberry thinks. I don't think Presti has given up on Mullens. He didn't draft the other guys you mentioned.

Blair is an undersized power forward who will never be a factor on a championship team. Budinger should have stuck with volleyball.

I found it interesting in D. Mayberry's column Sunday about OKC needing to "go big," with their 21st and possibly their 26th pick as well. He went even further to conclude that Serge Ibaka may be the only current big man that has a future in OKC. That being said, looks like he has already come to grips with last year's blown pick spent on Byron Mullins..that pick should have taken DeJuan Blair or a 3-pt shooter with range like Chase Buddinger from Arizona. I continue to repeat...Robert Swift, Johann Petro, Byron Mullins...this team has a history of drafting some really bad big men. Now everyone is talking about the 7 ft. 1 in. kid from Florida State...once again, he did not dominate at all in the ACC...what makes anyone think (just because he is 7'1" ?) he will be able to deliver in at the NBA level? I don't know who the Thunder should draft, but I do know, that mediocre high school and college centers do not pan out in the NBA

I've said it once, I've said it twice, I'll say it again.. Please no Orton in OKC.

Bell in Miami would be unlikely to get more than 15 minutes a game tops and he is unlikely to get the job or get that many minutes.

But the no minutes perceived available thing will be an issue getting any free agent at any position this summer.

They'd have to reassure. I'd guess teams probably almost always have to. But playing the deep bench far less than anybody else in the west and the recent rigidity of the starting lineup might make it even more of factor here on top of other things for free agents small and bigger.

They could carve out up to 20 minutes, if they wanted.

None of those shooters will sign here, we have no minutes for them.

Bell has already said he wants to play Miami.

I don't want to get Korver, Bell, Miller, etc until either Thabo or Harden are traded for other assets.

I just Clicked on a Hassan Whiteside video on you tube and the song in the background jsut keeps saying. "Thunder!!!.....Thunder!!!" Its Thunder struck by ACDC. I hope its true

The traditional version of Adjusted +/- has him as terrible. The newer RAPM version as only modestly negative. I'd probably split the difference this time. But year 3 for guy like him could be almost anything.

I shouldn't have cited those stats regarding Bell in Charlotte last season since they were so small sample but in much bigger sample 08-09 he was still best on win % with him on the court and in a pretty close battle for 2nd thru 5th best on raw +/-.

I am not by any means an advocate of taking Beasley but I wouldn't go completely crazy if they did, for some reason; I guess because he could be expiring after next season and he'd add to the competition for and options with minutes.

I wondered if he shot better when he shot less but the data says he shot the 3ball better when he took 10 or less shots but hit the 2 pointer a bit worse and overall it was a bit worse when he shot 10 or less shots.

Has anybody heard anymore on the Michael Beasley front? Personally, if they're still shopping him for nothing, I'm not sure why we haven't taken that. Even if he never plays he's worth more than just straight cap space that he'd be renting until we traded him.

@Crow
You never know what vets might play for the minimum for a chance to win a ring.

Somebody like Bell will have to decide how to trade off contention, money and minutes.

You'd have to do a workout and a medical check before deciding. If he won't do that, you pass.

Team best raw +/- and win % for Charlotte by far and mildly positive on both multi-season Offensive and Defensive Adjusted +/-.

Bell would be fine by me. Might have more of a shot at him if they pay enough than Korver or M. Miller given the money and minutes and years those 2 guys will probably get.

Crow :FWIW, DX hints that a trade somewhere in the league will be announced by tomorrow.

Has to be Nocioni and/or Hedo.

Paul :What do people think about Raja Bell?? He might not have interest in coming to the Thunder, but I’m not sure why not. He would bring defense, 3 pt shooting, some veteran experience, and I don’t think he’ll be overly expensive. Though he has been linked recently with saying he’d love to play in Miami (I think he’s from there). Not sure what kind of deal he’d be looking at but he or Korver could be nice, and wouldn’t take up TONs of FA space. A simple little trade here or there could easily clear some space for them. Plus the simple addition of Korver would mean a subtraction from Utah, which in my opinion is a good thing.

he's been often injured as of late and he is old . . .

pass . . .

FWIW, DX hints that a trade somewhere in the league will be announced by tomorrow.

What do people think about Raja Bell?? He might not have interest in coming to the Thunder, but I'm not sure why not. He would bring defense, 3 pt shooting, some veteran experience, and I don't think he'll be overly expensive. Though he has been linked recently with saying he'd love to play in Miami (I think he's from there). Not sure what kind of deal he'd be looking at but he or Korver could be nice, and wouldn't take up TONs of FA space. A simple little trade here or there could easily clear some space for them. Plus the simple addition of Korver would mean a subtraction from Utah, which in my opinion is a good thing.

"If" the team is too young to advance in the playoffs near-term it will either be treated as a trade-off Presti was willing to live with for a hoped for better future further down the line or maybe as he went too far that direction.

A vet 2/3 or 3/4, strong on offense, on 3 point shooting and late game shooting might help with the offensive need, even with Harden. Not arguing for the ones they let go though; just saying what might help from here but maybe Harden and Green step up into those roles more fully in future playoffs.

The way Presti was constructed it on purpose they will be young for quite awhile barring moves to purposely undo this, something that might happen gradually or quicker if expectations are not met several times or missed by a lot.

In the 2 wins Harden scored about 3 times as much in the first halves as the second. He basically had 3 good quarters before halftime and 1 after. He got decent time in the second half in those games. Again not enough to conclude precisely off of but enough for some encouragement.

@justin
While some might question Brooks, it is important to remember that Harden is still very young and is still learning the NBA game. I know the Thunder did great and everything and everyone wants to keep going to the next level and what not. However, I'm not sure how to make this point more dramatically. The Thunder had 3 rookies (Maynor, Harden, Ibaka), 1 2nd year player (Westbrook, and 2 3rd year players, (Durant and Green) as BIG MINUTE PLAYERS for this team. Add in whoever we draft and Mullens and White and that's over half the team having less combined NBA experience than Kobe Bryant has. As Thunder fans we should be excited about where our team is. However, I almost feel bad for the team for next year because of everything that happened this year making fans almost crazy with their hopes and expectations.

justin :@Kev

Harden was very assertive, active, and rose to the occasion in our two playoff wins IMO. If you look at his lines, it was basically what we hope for him to become – a jack of all trades SG doing a bit of everything. One of the biggest problems with Harden and I’ve said it before is that he had a really short leash. Many times when he’d assert himself and make a mistake he’d get benched by Brooks.
I have high hopes for him to become a great player. He does knock down shots, he gets to the rim very easy and fluidly (though finishing has been a problem) and he draws fouls at a higher rate than Durant. There’s a lot to like and a lot of reason to believe he’ll ‘take’ that starting spot. If we don’t make any big moves we’ll need him to be that guy…

agreed. Harden was very impressive in our 2 wins at home. He showed great aggressiveness, good decision making, and good passing. That's what I hope he becomes in a couple years.

@Kev

Harden was very assertive, active, and rose to the occasion in our two playoff wins IMO. If you look at his lines, it was basically what we hope for him to become - a jack of all trades SG doing a bit of everything. One of the biggest problems with Harden and I've said it before is that he had a really short leash. Many times when he'd assert himself and make a mistake he'd get benched by Brooks.

I have high hopes for him to become a great player. He does knock down shots, he gets to the rim very easy and fluidly (though finishing has been a problem) and he draws fouls at a higher rate than Durant. There's a lot to like and a lot of reason to believe he'll 'take' that starting spot. If we don't make any big moves we'll need him to be that guy...

justin :I don’t see where or how our offense gets much better with Thabo in the lineup unless we acquire a significant front court upgrade or Westbrook finds a jump shot.

true, but Brooks probably wants to keep the defense at the same level - so that's why I think Thabo stays on the court at the start . . .

Paul :@justinA lot of Thunder players could learn a lot from watching the Celtics. Westbrook could learn a lot from Rondo. KD and Harden could learn a ton from both Ray Allen and Pierce. Ibaka could learn from all the post players.

agreed - I am in the midst of charting game 5 and those guys take defense to another level. Our defense is very good - but it has a ways to go to match the defense of the Celtics . . .

I don't see where or how our offense gets much better with Thabo in the lineup unless we acquire a significant front court upgrade or Westbrook finds a jump shot.

justin :James Harden has to watch Paul Pierce operate the mid range game and basically emulate him.

nice call - I think what's bugging me about Harden is his "passion". I listened to an old 2009 draft preview and someone mentioned that - and that's what I was looking at in the NCAAs - he didn't really rise to the occasion - maybe he doesnt love to play the game . . . time will tell . . .

@justin
A lot of Thunder players could learn a lot from watching the Celtics. Westbrook could learn a lot from Rondo. KD and Harden could learn a ton from both Ray Allen and Pierce. Ibaka could learn from all the post players.

James Harden has to watch Paul Pierce operate the mid range game and basically emulate him.

dream catcher :

Larry :@The DON Dude, you had me crackin up so hard my kids were wondering what was wrongJust for the record, I think favors has a chance to be special but he is not a full time center in my mind. I understand Henry would be oone dimensional, but that is what we need, a dead eye shooter that can get his shot off in the NBA and not get in Durant’s way. I really think if we had someone of that caliber we would be much better than taking a flyer on bigs that have questionable athletic ability that won’t get it done against the better bigs in the league. If any of these guys were that good, they would go 1,2,3 in the draft. They arn’t and that tells you what you need to know. Henry is a much taller version of Derek Fisher.

Harden can become our dead eye shooter. He has the stroke, he just needs some more time to develop and get a bit more consistent.

it's possible - the problem is that he doesnt have a quick release - we have to see what he does against starting twos assuming he starts - and thats still an "if" at this point - I am in the minority in thinking that Thabo still starts at the beginning of the year . . .

Paul :
Does anyone know where to find a list of the Internationals that stayed in the draft?

Not sure if the NBA would immediately release this evening. They seem to like to shut down press operations by 5 pm eastern except in strong need. I'd think draftexpress or nba.com would have it tomorrow.

@ThunderHorn

I disagree. He has more talent than Cousins and Monroe Favors is more athletic but Mullens is much bigger. Mullens has true center size, can guard the pick and roll, can shoot inside and outside. He certainly more Gasol than Howard.(not saying he is good as Gasol)

I think the centers in the draft are crapshoots and Presti does not like gambling with high picks. This team needs frontcourt help and shooting/bench help. If Presti is indeed moving up, he is targeting the latter.

Larry :@The
DON
Dude, you had me crackin up so hard my kids were wondering what was wrong
Just for the record, I think favors has a chance to be special but he is not a full time center in my mind. I understand Henry would be oone dimensional, but that is what we need, a dead eye shooter that can get his shot off in the NBA and not get in Durant’s way. I really think if we had someone of that caliber we would be much better than taking a flyer on bigs that have questionable athletic ability that won’t get it done against the better bigs in the league. If any of these guys were that good, they would go 1,2,3 in the draft. They arn’t and that tells you what you need to know. Henry is a much taller version of Derek Fisher.

Harden can become our dead eye shooter. He has the stroke, he just needs some more time to develop and get a bit more consistent.

@The DON

Dude, you had me crackin up so hard my kids were wondering what was wrong :)

Just for the record, I think favors has a chance to be special but he is not a full time center in my mind. I understand Henry would be oone dimensional, but that is what we need, a dead eye shooter that can get his shot off in the NBA and not get in Durant's way. I really think if we had someone of that caliber we would be much better than taking a flyer on bigs that have questionable athletic ability that won't get it done against the better bigs in the league. If any of these guys were that good, they would go 1,2,3 in the draft. They arn't and that tells you what you need to know. Henry is a much taller version of Derek Fisher.

justin :
We were 20-23 when Russell Westbrook attempted 14 or more shots. We were 18-9 when James Harden attempted 9 or more shots.
We really need a legitimate second option on the court.

I really think Harden can become that justin. He just needs some time to develop. Patience is a virtue. I just hope he stops eating cheesecake. He seems to go that restaurant a lot from twitter updates and I think losing some body fat would do him some good.

We were 20-23 when Russell Westbrook attempted 14 or more shots. We were 18-9 when James Harden attempted 9 or more shots.

We really need a legitimate second option on the court.

@Mark!

I looked at the very small sample playoff series:

Harden was 3-7 with 2+ starters; 3-8 without.
I wouldn't conclude off that of course.

Does anyone know where to find a list of the Internationals that stayed in the draft?

Not to bring up comparisons between the two again, but does anybody else think it is funny that the closer to the draft we get the more people are talking bad about Orton and talking good about Pittman?

I would also just like to have this question answered by all those who think Harden should go into the starting line-up. Where is the perimeter scoring going to come from with the 2nd unit? Maynor, Green, and Thabo aren't bad players but none are especially great for getting their own shots, and if it is on the post players to score other teams will double down there or double over onto Green. To me this just doesn't seem like a productive offensive 2nd unit. Maybe I'm missing something, but could someone explain their solution/view of this problem?

Harden shoots it far better from the corners than at the wings. Broadly speaking, he seems to get attempts in the corners more often when he's playing a support role. When he's in with the second unit and used more handling the ball up top he doesn't seem to get 3PT shots in the corners as often. I suspect he'd shoot a much better % with the starting group.

Mark! :@Crow

Is it possible to isolate Harden’s 3P% while playing w/ at least 2 starters?

It is a good question. I don't have that immediately. I don't tend to work with a play by play database but might in the future.

I should have said...

I’d expect Brooks to utilize any player chosen by Presti "in the order of priority Sam places on them".

That has an edge to it but I think it to be true and not necessarily wrongly so. It might be wrongly so in some cases in some eyes or at least for some time-periods but in the long-run I would think these anomalies would tend to go away. At least I would hope so.

@Crow

Is it possible to isolate Harden's 3P% while playing w/ at least 2 starters?

That's my biggest question about our 3P shooting troubles. I wonder if Harden was much less efficient when he was forced to be the primary scoring option.

For that matter, might be interesting to look at assist behavior for Harden in those two scenarios as well.

@Mark!

If Lee got one-third of Green's minutes and shots (4) + Collison's (4 more) + 2 each from Westbrook and Durant that would be 12. He got 15.5 with the Knicks. Is 12 shots enough for Lee at his hoped for pay? Would they go farther to get him 15?

@Crow

I would just prefer to assume that the players will respond professionally to changes in personnel until I see evidence to the contrary. Especially given the proclivity of many posters here to start w/ the opposite assumption.

KD would be mad if Green isn't resigned or starting or whatever. KD would be mad if he had to share the court w/ another great player. Et cetera. When did KD become a diva?

@justin

Of the top ten offenses in the league, the average rank on 3PM was 11.5. I agree that isn't a huge bias in favor of strong performance on that measure but it is still a bias and a big gap from where the Thunder was.

Of the top ten offenses in the league, the average rank on 3PT FG% was 6.8. I knew it was higher than 3PM but just calculated it.