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Start Ibaka... Draft Larry Sanders!!!!!!!! Watch his interviews, check out his measurements!!!! He runs with the second unit with his former VCU point in Maynor...And then move Green :(

Darren Collison with Chris Paul would be going back to a two PG lineup, something New Orleans did a heck of a lot a few years ago... and then went away from. Will be interesting to see how much they do it next season and what the results are with these 2 in general and against the Thunder and if the Thunder matches with Maynor-Westbrook or not.

This season they used it about 5 minutes a game and while I didn't calculate how well it did precisely, it look s like it was neutral or a little better.

@william

Ok, there is a fair amount of support around here for each of those recommendations. Some against too, of course.

Camby was a good target but he did end up signing an extension with Portland, unfortunately.

yes next year ROCKET is better when they got YAO ming back and LA clipper look great....NOLA is looking good if they conbine collinson with chris paul ...they will step up like OKC did

i don't think we should be take COUSIN!!! he is very good but very high risk too........i think take DAVID LEE is easier or take macus camby 1 year for IBAKA learn from him is better idea ......and keep our 2 pick for our bench like Babbitt or Alabi or Sander

With Brooks- Martin- Battier- Scola- Hayes you had 3 good scorers and 2 good defenders and great results. With Brooks- Martin- Ariza- Scola- Hayes you had 3 guys who thought they were scorers and 3 guys who thought they were good defenders but it looks like it was 2 good scorers and just 1 truly good defender and thus a difference and for some reason a much larger one than you might expect if everything was linear and not dynamic / interactive.

Other teams (like the Griz) also show that having 4 of the 5 right guys on the court can be very different than having all 5 best guys who are right together.

Chnage out one guy from the Thunder starting lineup and it also can show large changes in results.

Brooks- Martin- Ariza- Scola- Hayes, just one player different than Brooks- Martin- Battier- Scola- Hayes, was modestly weak on raw team +/- and estimated pretty bad on Adjusted +/-, far different than the other lineup. Some of this is randomness associated with small sample sizes but it also suggests to me that lineups are unique production units with interactive player effects that are hard to see clearly, unless you really look for them (and even then can sometimes be hard) and 1 bad inclusion can have major impacts.

Brooks- Martin- Battier- Scola- Hayes was actually terrific in short minutes but Adelman played it less than 4 minutes a game. Brooks- Martin- Battier- Scola- Yao, might be terrific or not, get played a lot or not.

Only 2 of Martin's top 9 lineups in Houston without Yao were positive and most were strongly negative. With Yao is different but I'd still feel more confident going forward if Martin was positive on more of those lineups this season or at least less bad.

On the lineup Adjusted +/- this season the estimates say for every good lineup Adelman selected / used there was roughly one bad one. They did a lot better the prior season. We'll see how they do with Yao and Martin, etc.

@Paul

Honestly, as the rosters currently lie, I don't think Houston is better than any of those teams unless (as I stated) Yao comes back with a throw back season. After such a long hiatus, how likely is that?

The Rockets gave up 100 points per game pre All Star break and 106 points per game post All Star break. By shedding Landry and adopting Kevin Martin (also, Shane Battier's waning health), they transformed from a team that played gritty defense and made the most of their opportunities offensively to another thing altogether. Without a strong return from Yao, I question Houston's identity and direction.

The greater concern with them (and many other teams in the West) is what happens with player movement. That's a question for many teams this offsaeson, but Houston has the additional question of whether or not Yao can come back and play to the level he is accustomed. I'd say Houston has the most questions of any of the western conference teams in the Top 10.

I left an incomplete impression about the impact of Yao returning. The main positive of him back over Hayes for the bulk of the minutes is getting rid of Hayes' large negative offensive impact.

Almost all their players are 1 way strong on offense or defense. It is one of the most polarized teams in that regard I've seen. It will depend heavily on Adelman and Morey and his team of analysts to pick the right lineups.

The Rockets were 16th best on offensive efficiency and 17th best on defensive efficiency. With Yao in 08-09, but without Martin obviously, they were 14th on offense and 4th on defense. If they get to 10-12 on offense or better and 5-8 on defense then they are a top tier contender. If they are much above 12 on offense and / or 8 on defense then they will be fighting for one of the last seeds or the very last seed in the west like it turned out for the Thunder this season.

If the Rockets win around 50 but fail to get out of the first round that will be similar to what they have done in the most of the recent past and before Morey arrived and I would rate the deal as closer to ok than really good. If they get to the 2nd round again or go further then I'd be more willing to call the deal good or really good.

@justin
Oh you mean that Rocket team that was fighting for the playoffs all season without Yao, who could add an all-NBA first team Center plus a top 15 pick and possibly some other pieces??? That Rockets team?? As opposed to who??? Our team without post players to match with Yao? Dallas is just as big a choke artist, Utah could be good I suppose but they'll lose Boozer potentially which could set them back. Den never seems to be healthy in their front court. NOR and POR are injuries waiting to happen. Memphis could lose Gay this year. And who knows maybe the Kings will figure some things out this year much the way we did this past year. Tyreke Evans + top 5 pick and everyone else playing better they're not an easy beat. The Spurs seem to be aging quickly according to everyone. Kobe and Co. might lose Phil and lots of other things. Who knows what happens if Amare leaves PHX. Nobody knows the future, but to doubt against a team that played as hard as Hou did this year without "stars" and nothing to gain by winning games and not making the playoffs, can only be better when adding a legit center to that hunger and experience. This year we like to think we gave the Lakers a big scare, but if you think back to last year it was that same Rockets team that did the same thing. So to say they won't make noise is selling teams short and that's the worst thing that can happen in sports is to become complacent.

Martin had a negative "Adjusted" +/- while playing for the Kings every season. Adjusted +/- accounts for the relative weakness of his teammates and tries to get at his overall individual impact on the scoreboard (offense + defense, direct and indirect). It is not perfect, of course, but 6 straight negative seasons means something to me.

I am not forgetting Yao; I mentioned him, but a detailed multi-year version of Adjusted +/- says his net impact on offense is neutral and his defensive help is actually less than Hayes'.

"You’re telling me that a team of McGrady and Yao is better than a team with Brooks, Martin, Ariza, Scola, Yao, with an improvement to Jordan Hill, plus Battier, and whomever they draft in the first round isn’t going to b a team that could contend?"

Nope. I wasn't making that comparison.

I was comparing them to the other top contenders and some extent comparing the deal to other possible deals or no deal that might have kept Landry. But Landry was likely to leave in 2011 due to the tough deals he had to take from the Rockets.

It doesn't take APM to tell me that Kevin Martin's a shoddy defender.

Trevor Ariza is still a perplexing signing to me. He had a horrific year as 'the man'. Kevin Martin's been 'the man' for awhile and hasn't done much with that. Either Morey is hoping that Yao can come back strong or he's got some tricks up his sleeve to get one of these free agents in a S&T. Houston has a lot of decent role players and number two's. Say what you want about Tracy McGrady, but he was super duper star when healthy and lead the Rockets to a lot of their success.

The NBA is a star's league and I don't see the Rockets making major noise with that current roster barring a huge Yao comeback.

@Paul
KD's numbers were bad because he was a terrible defender. It's not like everyone on the team the last two years was negative. It wasn't the team that made him take it easier on defense and have no idea how to close off drives or rotate to help.

Obviously he's made huge strides, and I love it, but let's not sugarcoat his past two years. His rookie year he wasn't much more of a chucker, but he used it to learn where to shoot. His sophmore year he was a scoring dynamo but a ghost on defense, but he used it to learn what a star really needs. This year he put it all together and became a superstar. That, much more than his team just deciding to be good all of a sudden, is which his individual numbers are so much better.

Houston will be better next year is Yao is healthy, and Martin will score a lot, but his impact will be directly related to how well the team defends around him (kind of like Jeff Green here). If Martin drops 30, but the man he defends is able to score and make plays at will, that 30 becomes a lot more empty.

@Crow
He had a negative +/- while playing for the Kings..... SHOCKER!! Does that really surprise you that bad teams skew results, just look at the difference KD's +/- from last year to this year when a team is winning things change. Hou went from a playoff team to a non-playoff team which accounts for Battiers. You also forget that Yao back erases a lot of things their guys inside this year didn't do.

You're telling me that a team of McGrady and Yao is better than a team with Brooks, Martin, Ariza, Scola, Yao, with an improvement to Jordan Hill, plus Battier, and whomever they draft in the first round isn't going to b a team that could contend? They were on the verge of the playoffs this year without a legit post player, add in one of the most formidable plus player evolvement (what you think the Thunder are the only team capable of improving?) and you have a team that could be very legit. The Rockets haven't fared well in the playoffs recently not because of defense problems but more offensive struggles and injuries to key players. Martin and Brooks can both hit big shots and adding in a solid group of other players and they have a very good shot at title contention, whether other people want to look at that possibility or not. They scare me much more than Dallas, Den, Utah, or even Phx as non-Laker Western conference teams.

This is around the time of year where I stop reading rumor mills. Most of the stuff going around now is either bogus or a smokescreen. I just read the mock drafts, make my own, and wait for draft night.

@Paul

Martin, in the past, has rated one of the worse defenders in the league. He has had a negative Adjusted +/- 6 straight seasons, for what that is worth to you or Morey, who loved to cite it while Battier was strong on it. This season Battier barely ended up positive. Brooks has never been positive on this eiither. I'd think Brooks-Martin would put a lot of stress on the interior D to bail them out.

The team numbers for this pair on the court together (this season without Yao) were 107 offensive efficiency, 105 defensive efficency. Actually my defensive fears were not realized but then neither were hopes of strong offense.

It could work better next season, perimeter mostly offense + interior better defense + Yao's scoring addition, but right now I doubt it all will lead to the level of top contender. But one or two more good moves and tweak the lineup rotation and they could do better than 50 wins and a no better than even proposition to get out of the first round.

@Mark!
Yeah, that's true. Although I'm not sure why New Jersey would be so high on Parker. If Harris is healthy next year, he basically does all the exact same things Parker does (super quick, scoring PGs, not a lot of range on their shot). Harris is also younger.

It's not like NJ has bad contracts they need to unload. The biggest one they have is Harris. I don't think Parker would be worth the 3rd pick if I had a need at PG, much less when I already have one who does the same things.

@Paul
Splitter has yet to say he even wants to come to the NBA, and would necessitate a salary in the 8 million range just to consider it. I honestly don't think his draft rights are worth that much.

Also, while Ginobli would trump Green, I can't see how even the 2 pick would be worth both the loss of Ginobli and inclusion of Brand's contract. They have only a couple more years of contending left with their roster, and Favors doesn't improve the team as much as Manu. Trading for Favors in their case would be a sign of rebuilding, but they wouldn't have the picks or cap space to do it for several more years.

The only reason trading up works for us is because Harden, Ibaka, and 2nd pick would be on rookie contracts through Brand's contract. We can basically outgrow him because our players are so young. An old team like San Antonio is just stuck with him unable to get better on their own (no cap space) and slowly diminishing from age all around their new cornerstone.

Moving Parker as part of getting Favors could make sense for the Spurs given that they have Hill; but for the Nets to do that would seem to require them to believe that PG is very important and they absolutely have to make a change to get anywhere and / or that it would help sell tickets. Those things might be true but then Harris probably has to move elsewhere too and that seems difficult.

There are plenty of ways to try to make something unlikely or difficult work but it comes down to willingness and the precise valuations- to them- given to the moving pieces by both sides.

@Keith

Spanish law firm w/ Rubio is a little different tho, right? We were actually in range to draft the guy.

San Antonio would have to trade to get Favors. The rumor that had the most traction involved Parker to New Jersey.

I think Martin and Hill was a pretty good deal, not to mention the rights to swap picks with the Knicks, and then a future 1st round Knick pick can b huge maybe i'm wrong but I think that's a pretty good way to go about trading a guy that isn't even playing on your team.

@Paul

Those 3 guesses were my quick most likelies but I agree it is still unlikely. Indiana and Toronto if they can get the guy they really want will keep the pick but it they miss they could possibly decide that a vet and a lower pick would be alright in some deal. Miami might potentially want the cap room or a vet and a lower, somewhat cheaper pick.

@Mark
Going for Gortat was consistent with their need, not getting him outright was not a surprise, not succeeding with any fancier deal I can't really judge because Smith may not have been interested.

@Paul
The McGrady deal was very complicated and it was something but I'd say it is a bit too early to call where it falls long term between real good and ok, when considering everything including the cap space they might have had, not immediately but eventually instead of taking on Martin.

@Keith
San Antonio has the rights to Splitter, their own pick, Ginobli and Tony Parker could both be available if all rumors are true those things would give them a slight edge. Plus trading one of the later 2 points mentioned would give them the cap space to take on a player like Elton Brand or Dalembert.

@Mark!
I don't see how San Antonio has any more pieces than we do. Their interest in Favors is just about their due diligence. Presti hired Spanish lawyers last year only to not draft Rubio. I wouldn't read too much into it.

The Houston/Gortat thing made sense at the time. Most teams thought Gortat was looking very good in his limited minutes. A lot of us were hoping the Thunder would pursue him even. That kind of went down the crapper though when he didn't wow this season.

@Mark!
I think Mike Holmgrom made a great quote once in reference to drafts. He said, "Most of the things you hear are just to keep people looking one way so you can slip in another way to take what you're really after."

Guys like Morey are really smart though look at how they played the McGrady card to pull in the pieces they really needed.

@Paul
In all reality, we're not stealing a pick from anyone if they guy the want is there. Teams who might be willing to trade down will be doing so for a reason. Either they have something so poisonous that they'll give up something valuable to get rid of it, or they simply need so much help that one pick, where they pick, doesn't do enough.

There is a growing thought that Philly wants to get rid of Brand so bad they would be willing to trade down. Other teams simply aren't slotted at picks that look to have a player that fills a significant need.

Crow :
@Mark!
You can go crazy trying to figure out why everyone does what they do, but it is worth trying to follow a good teams and see what you can learn from them.
If they are really interested in Favors it must be as heir apparent to Duncan and they must want to keep their model with a strong big man. Hopefully 2 way strong, if his offense progresses as hoped to go along with an already pretty strong defense. I forgot earlier that Favors is just 18. I guess I’ll take the tip and upgrade my previous quick take.

Yeah, that's my thinking too.

Another example of this is Houston/Morey w/ Marcin Gortat. I'm pretty unimpressed w/ him, but Morey liking him has me second guessing my judgments.

@Crow
All of those teams though have very specific needs so if they player they want is on the board I don't see them trading down. Especially, since all of them want a PG and Bledsoe and Bradley are the only ones that are available outside the 1st two picks. So they might ask for Maynor, which I don't necessarily see happening, though if Monroe were available at 10 I'd personally be fine with trading Maynor to the Pacers and then signing another veteran backup PG.

John-o :Nash won 2 MVPs when he was 31 and 32 … but then since some of his age comes in Canadian years it means it’s not like a normal US year.

Nash had ~18,000 total NBA minutes going into the 2004-2005 season. About the same as LeBron James had going into the 2008-2009 season. Both had the same amount of mileage when they won their awards. Just another example of how age can be misleading.

I don't know who is willing to trade back or out, and I don't think media reports are that helpful for determining this, but I'd guess that it might be most worth pursuing it with the Pacers at 10, Raptors at 13 or Heat at 18.

Nash won 2 MVPs when he was 31 and 32 ... but then since some of his age comes in Canadian years it means it's not like a normal US year.

And what's not too much both 1sts or a 1st and a future 1st or a 1st and Collison?

@Paul
We could probably get 12-16 in that range trading up without giving up too much.

The extension or not will be a main message but I'll wonder what words go along with it either way. Where along the spectrum of "We're happy" to "We're happy, but we need to see some improvement on a few things" to "We need to see improvement on some things" will the words fall and what will be the response?

So if we cancel out the ideas of a top 10 pick, not saying it "can't" happen just figuring that most teams there would price them higher than the Thunder might want to give up stuff. What places do we see as actual spots interested in taking 2 picks for 1, or would be interested in a player like Mullens, White, Green, or Collison since those pieces seem to be what we have to offer besides future 1sts, or use of our cap space. Or what other players do we actual see available like Dalembert, Biedrins, Turiaf, someone mentioned Gortat once. Or what FA pieces could we use our cap space on that isn't a MAX FA??? Because as much fun as it is to dream about Lebron or top 3 picks if we're more realistic about it, we can start looking at pieces that we'd think are better fits and more logical fits, who knows maybe we'll inspire moves lol.

@f5alcon

An extension for Green may or may not happen and may or may not change things for him but it is a significant issue for Presti.

@Bob

I guess PJ is intended to improve the defense. As an assistant, he might help some. He might end up doing more but I won't comment further on that.

@ Vega

Humphries is indeed like Collison in body type, rebounding and offensive game. Nick has a clear edge on defensive intelligence, especially on help defense.

Turiaf in a bigger deal would be worth checking. I like several Warriors.

@Mark!

You can go crazy trying to figure out why everyone does what they do, but it is worth trying to follow a good teams and see what you can learn from them.

If they are really interested in Favors it must be as heir apparent to Duncan and they must want to keep their model with a strong big man. Hopefully 2 way strong, if his offense progresses as hoped to go along with an already pretty strong defense. I forgot earlier that Favors is just 18. I guess I'll take the tip and upgrade my previous quick take.

Seraphin apparently hurt his knee recently.

@f5alcon
Yeah, there are a lot of parts that could move in the design and if you tinker one place, you may then decide to do something else too. Doing enough without overdoing it and in the end works together does take a lot of talent.

If K Love is offered, I'd make a strong bid for him, with Green if they wanted him or otherwise. He is not perfect but I think he could be a useful piece.

I'd probably pass on Jefferson for several reasons.

@Paul
right, i dont think it is, all the players have flaws, we at least know what we are getting with green

What are we willing to give up???? Everyone seems to think Green and 1st round picks are easy enough to move but what else. It's not like a team like Minnesota needs more picks. Philly needs all kinds of things but Green and later first round picks don't necessarily seem like the building blocks a no 2 pick would be even with a huge cap relief from the "Brand" trade. Utah isn't going to just give up the no 9 and Monroe for nothing. Everyone has a price, is it really worth moving up??

@ThunderHorn
nba draft net has him at 5, so does draft express.

Regardless trading into the top 10 is difficult and would cost us green at the minimum.

@f5alcon

Monore is slotted in the 6-10 range, not top 5.