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Friday Bolts – 4.30.10

Mark Heisler of the LA Times with a great story on Serge Ibaka: ”At 17, Congolese-born Serge Ibaka had yet to play organized basketball. At 20, he’s in rotation for the Thunder, a 6-10 version of Russell Westbrook, and one more way the Lakers just learned they’re not young anymore. Ibaka is the embodiment of the rising Thunder, not yet a starter but no longer a rumor, bounding his way out of anonymity in this, his first NBA season, following his two in Spain, which were, as he puts it, “my first time to play basketball, organizational.”

A story from the Houston Chronicle on the Thunder’s impact in OKC: Although the Thunder have not won over a community by bringing it a championship, they feel a sense of civic pride, even responsibility, because of the way the team was embraced as Oklahoma City’s first top-level pro franchise. From the Thunder Alley gathering outside the arena before games to shirts all over a University of Oklahoma campus usually adorned only in crimson 30 minutes away, Oklahoma City is the latest in a line of small-market, one-major-league-sport towns that have become an NBA specialty.

Shoals breaks down the rookie class: “Harm Reduction Rookie of the Year. Blake Griffin would have been perfect here. But when OKC drew number three, Presti had to put on his thinking cap — a golden device that so many young men would give their souls to glimpse but once. Russell Westbrook is their point guard of the future, so no need for clutter there. Even snagging Rubio as a defensive move would prove too much of a distraction. Trading the pick wouldn’t get them the big man they wanted, at least not without sacrificing cap room. Enter Harden, the ultimate low-risk, medium-reward pick, the equivalent of skipping a turn late in a game of Monopoly to collect rent money from others. Is that even legal?”

Simmons gave out some playoff power rankings and Serge Ibaka came in 31st. Oh, and Simmons also tries to take credit for the “Chewie” nickname. What gives?: ”Let’s say Sam Presti resigned, OKC hired me to run the team, David Stern announced that the league was adding 10 more teams, and there was a mega-expansion draft coming in June in which I could protect only three of my players. (I know, this isn’t the most likely scenario. Just bear with me.) I would protect Durant, Westbrook … and Serge Ibaka. It’s true. (Random note: I’m not sure someone named “Serge Ibaka” needs a nickname. That’s a strong name. He sounds like the villain in a James Bond flick — as in, the world is going to blow up unless 007 can stop Serge Ibaka. But every time an announcer screams Ibaka’s name — and it’s happened a few times in this Lakers series — it always sounds a little like “Chewbacca.” Which makes me wonder if we could get away with calling him “Chewie.”

I care about these types of things, so you can assume I enjoyed this from Henry Abbott on Steve Nash’s hair.

The Lakers want to impose their will on the Thunder: ”As the Lakers prepared to fly to Oklahoma City on Thursday, the team talked about the energy it hoped to take with it as carry-on to combat a raucous home crowd at the Ford Center in Friday’s Game 6. “It’s really about who imposes whose will upon the game,” said Lakers coach Phil Jackson. “You really have to impose your will upon the game. That’s something we did in Game 3, but we couldn’t sustain it.” Los Angeles has won the first quarter in four of the five games of the series, setting the tone from the beginning. In the first quarters of L.A.’s three wins, it outscored Oklahoma City by a combined 84-51. In Game 3, the first playoff game in the history of Oklahoma, the Lakers used a 10-0 run to start the game to diffuse the home crowd.”

Berry Tramel says the Thunder shouldn’t do a thing different: ”But here’s what the Thunder should do differently to take down the Lakers, either tonight or in some season to come. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The Thunder shouldn’t change a thing. Don’t tinker with the lineup tonight, which Scott Brooks says he won’t do. Don’t overhaul the roster after this magic carpet ride ends, which Sam Presti repeatedly has said he won’t do.”

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@DL
It just seemed to come out of nowhere. First he's a bubble second rounder, then Presti says nice things and he jumps to late first, then seemingly nothing actually happens but he jumps to top 10. I mean, how much can scouts/GMs honestly see when the kid was playing limited minutes behind a top 3 pick, and always next to another lottery pick?

When Deandre Jordan went in the second, I thought that was a tiny bit low, but fair. He hadn't actually proven anything. When Ed Davis came back this year, I thought it was a good move. He simply wasn't ready for the NBA, despite all his potential. Orton going top 10 seems like a huge reach. Could he turn out great? Sure, as could just about anyone drafted. But is he ready to jump into the NBA after playing 13 minutes per game for a team that didn't ask him to do much of anything besides not blow it?

Also, Orton's smart, responsible, motivated and cares about basketball. GM's like Presti, and a growing # of others, really care about character. Talented big men with good personalities are hard to find.

I'm pretty sure Presti would pass on a guy like Cousins just because of the red flags. We can't have any bad apples upset our incredible team chemistry.

@Keith
1) Orton's 6'10" but with very long arms. Probably 9'3" or more standing reach. And he played at 278 pounds last year (got this from his twitter) and is muscular. The kid is a full-size NBA center. Think Kendrick Perkins.

2) His game tape, as opposed to his stats, has really wowed the scouts, even in limited minutes. He's already an excellent defensive player and has shown intriguing low-post scoring ability.

3) Bigs get overdrafted on potential. Omar Samhan put up great stats in college but he's probably going undrafted because his body isn't strong enough. Orton looks and moves like a starting NBA center so some team's going to take a chance very early in the draft.

@Keith
Point well taken. I took your initial comment to mean "trade away the draft picks for veteran leadership" which I disagree with. I was also disputing your claim that since we snagged Ibaka, it'd take a miracle to get that lucky again in the next 10 years. I agree if they are involved in a trade for a starter-caliber big in some Jeff Green package, then by all means deal away. Depth never hurt anyone, though (we were uncommonly blessed by good health this year), and solid young role players are great trade bait as well.

@DL
What is the deal with Orton? He jumped to early-mid 20s when Presti said he liked him, but Chad Ford didn't think he should come out. Now I look at the top 100 rankings and Orton in 10th. How does a kid who didn't play much, who isn't especially big, and didn't really wow in his limited minute end up 10th after being nowhere up until a few weeks ago?

@DL
I like Jerome Jordan with one of our picks.

@Sammy
Part of my point is that we have almost no use for role players. We have the 1-3 essentially locked down. We have 4 guys whose natural position is the 4, and 2 at the 5. If we can get a starting 4 or 5, that's one thing, but just another guy to sit on the bench most of the game? Not improving our bottom line.

Does it hurt to have/use draft picks? No. But are two guaranteed contracts in the late first likely to be of any more use than the late firsts already sitting on our bench? Also no. There is a reason those picks have so little inherent value.

My preference is to use them as sweetener in an already decent trade. For example, if Bosh is available in a sign and trade, I'd much rather throw those picks in to trump another team than hold out hope that one of these picks becomes our future starter.

Givony at DraftExpress calls 2010 the "deepest" draft he's seen since he started covering it. Polished players like Jordan Crawford, Jerome Jordan and Dominique Jones may be available in the 2nd round.

Too bad there won't be a really good center available at or after the Thunder's first pick at 21. I love Daniel Orton but he may slip into the lottery. We should, at least, have our pick of perimeter guys to fulfill the three-point shooting role. I like Luke Babbitt.

@Sammy
God, look at me, I'm turning into Crow.

Or looked at another way, using 82games ratings, the chance you get at least a role player out of the 21-30 picks is 44.5 percent, with a 24 chance at drafting a 'solid' player and 6 percent chance you draft a star. Given the historical trade value of these picks, I'd rather take my two shots at grabbing a useful player on a cheap rookie contract than take back some other team's cast-off veteran.

Yeah, I wouldn't use Carl Landry or Rodrigue Beaubois as evidence of Presti's drafting prowess... he gave them away.

@Keith
Ok, let's forget specific teams for a moment. The 82games average rating is a little deceptive since you have a lot of boom-or-bust picks in the late draft that never play. Look at the number of solid rotation guys picked 21-30 in the last few years.

2008:
Ryan Anderson
Courtney Lee
Serge Ibaka
Nicolas Batum
George Hill

2007:
Jared Dudley
Wilson Chandler
Rudy Fernandez
Aaron Brooks
Arron Afflalo

2006:
Rajon Rondo
Kyle Lowry
Shannon Brown
Jordan Farmar
Sergio Rodriguez

2005:
Nate Robinson
Jarrett Jack
Jason Maxiell
Linas Kleiza
David Lee

Looking at these lists, the idea that you have to be very lucky to get a decent player out of the late first round strikes me as false.

@Sammy
First of all, you can't overlook when a player is traded away. If they were such great talent evaluators, they wouldn't trade away good players. That IS something you must take into account. Second, we specifically were referring to late first rounder, which is why I left out second round picks. You simply cannot pretend that second rounders are worth noting when the failure rate is so high. You are pointing out a handful of players out of hundreds of others who never made it in the NBA.

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm The Spurs have been smart in picking players late, but smart is still only have 4 contributors from 23 picks in the last decade. That's a 1 in 6 chance of getting someone worthwhile, and that's the top end for teams.

You can't give Presti credit for Landry, Beaubois, or Davis. If he really thought they were worth as much as they are now, he wouldn't have traded them away. Landry (31st overall) was traded for a future second (in essence a late first for a future second). Davis was nothing more than a throw-in for the 5th pick for Ray Allen in order to balance rosters. Beaubois plus a second rounder was traded for Mullens. Obviously none of those players was very highly regarded on draft day.

f5alcon :@TempBoy BrandonThere is a redhawks game tonight too, so no matter when you leave it will be crazy I think

thanks for trying.. i appreciate it..

by the way, FANTASTIC new article on the ESPN front page about Westbrook that everyone should read: http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/...

Did I just read Mullens and gazelle in the same sentence?...hehehe

@sas
I googled it and got nothing. But if it true thats good to hear.

@TempBoy Brandon
There is a redhawks game tonight too, so no matter when you leave it will be crazy I think

does anyone know what band is gonna play before the thunder game tonight? just wondering how early i should go out to the game this time..

I watched a few Tulsa 66ers games and I was actually very impressed with Mullens. He's got a nice perimeter shot (he shot 42% from 3 point range!), runs the court like a gazelle, and catches/finishes really well. There are very few people on the planet with his combination of size, length, power and agility.

He'll have to improve his BBIQ, he'll never be the true post-up man we're all looking, but he's got other strengths. He'll play a lot like Ibaka, run from rim to rim and live off tip-ins, dumpoffs for dunks, and open jump shots off of others' penetration. At worst he'll be a solid back-up center for a long time.

@BDK
durant, westbrook ibaka and harden could become the fantastic 4.

We have 2 picks we could alwasy keep one and trade one, its not an all or nothing thing, we need to finish building for this championship window, but trying to get future picks maybe even in the lottery will help us when the rookie deals start expiring and we need to rebuild with rookies.

@Thundercat
I heard it there yesterday coming home from class too. Can't find a substantiating article to save my life though.

RE: The Simmons Article

Simmons makes the claim that Durant's nickname should be "Plastic Man" a la the D.C. comics superhero that is lanky and can stretch. However, the Marvel comics equivalent is much better: "Mr. Fantastic." Is there a player that's already had this nickname, if not, we should definitely consider it for KD. Durantula blows as a nickname.

@kev
I'm not saying we should count on our picks to help, just that they might be more valuable if we keep them instead of punting them altogether since lower firsts fetch very little in trade.

@Keith
Agreed. The spurs late round draft picking is completely over exaggerated.

I would rather trade our picks for unprotected picks or weakly protected a few years from now with aging teams or teams needing to build now. Knicks, maimi, nets could all use late 1st rd picks now to fill out their roster. spurs, denver, dallas, boston, atlanta could use picks now to try and make a run at a title before they lose their window.

@Keith
Whether Beno is overpaid or not is besides the point – he is an NBA player with NBA player skills. So does Splitter (who I hope to trade for).
Mahinmi's barely played, but his per minute production suggest that he'd be a good pick up for somebody (much like DJ White).
Also, you forgot DeJuan Blair.
Forgetting for a moment who they kept and who they gave away, the Spurs also drafted John Salmons, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic. Heck, Presti in his time with the Sonics/Thunder drafted Rodrigue Beaubois, Serge Ibaka, Carl Landry, and Glen Davis. My point is that there's value there in the late first and early second; it's harder to find, but success rates aren't as low as you make them out to be.

Sammy :@KeithDon’t be so quick to write off late-firsts. Look what the Spurs have been able to do this decade.

My thoughts exactly. Rudy Fernandez, Aaron Brooks, Nate Robinson, David Lee, Ersan Ilyasova, Ronny Turiaf, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, Carl Landry, Big Baby, Marc Gasol and DeJuan Blair were all drafted after the 20th pick.

@Keith
LA cant afford bosh, they would have to give up gasol to get him, which isnt happening. Chicago is probably where Bodh goes, Other places could open up depending on lebron, if nets get wall/turner and lebron then nets might convince Bosh to go there too. a harris, tuner, lebron, Bosh, lopez lineup would be scary

we can't count on our draft picks helping us - if they do, it's a bonus . . .

@Sammy
George Hill Good pick, starter caliber
Tiago Splitter May never come over, fell in draft for that very reason
Ian Mahinmi Good per minute, only plays 6 mpg in 36 games, career
Beno Udrih Overpaid, career backup
Leandrinho Barbosa Spurs didn't think highly enough to keep
Tony Parker Good pick, still took 4 years to become a quality player

Right now, the Spurs only have 2 quality late round picks this decade (Hill and Parker). The next two best play for other teams, so we can't count them as great Spur picks. And to be fair, I'm not saying late rounders are worthless, just that the odds are against us (and even the Spurs) for late rounders to be real contributors. Given the players we currently have, a late rounder who doesn't blossom into a starter has almost no value to us. We already have backups, and those guys aren't hard to replace.

@DizzyDai
The problem with potential is that it is most often not realized. Lebron could be the greatest bball player forever if he spends all offseason working on an outside shot and free throws, turning into a 50-40-90 guy. Thabo could be the perfect starting SG for a non-SG based team if he could just get himself an outside shot. Mullens has all the size and athleticism to grab boards all over the floor and score over most anyone.

Fact is, none of those things are likely to happen. Lebron just has too much going on and is too good already to worry about spending his whole offseason on specific shots. Thabo has been a defensive specialist all his life, just got a pretty good extension based entirely on his defense, and is trying to fight for his starting spot on a defensive minded team. If he hasn't gotten the memo to fix his outside shooting by now, can we really expect him to suddenly make a leap? And Mullens... he's just given no reason to suspect he is working on the things he needs to work on. He still takes jump shots, primarily, leading to low percentage shooting. He still doesn't hit the boards hard, despite having every advantage to make that count. And perhaps worst of all, he hasn't changed those habits all year.

@Keith
Don't be so quick to write off late-firsts. Look what the Spurs have been able to do this decade.

Draft Larry Sanders if he's there, otherwise I'm fine with picking up Solomon Alabi and sticking him in the D-League. I like Avery Bradley, with the Suns pick: spot-up shooter who loves to play defense.

@DizzyDai
I would really really prefer to trade our first rounders in a package for someone established. Historically, late picks don't amount to much. Already we have Ibaka as a huge suprise, but Mullens and White can't even get in the 12 man rotation. If we are playing the averages, Ibaka has just ruined our late first round picks for the next decade.

That said, if we are definitely keeping the picks, I like Jordan Crawford as a scorer off the bench and Jerome Jordan as a backup center who focuses on rebounding and defense.

@Thundercat
Can't say I listen, but it's interesting. I still stand by my instinct that it is unsubstantiated, but it wouldn't be terribly surprising if true either. There are 3 places that Bosh could look at and see multiple championships: LA, playing PF next to Gasol and Kobe; Chicago, letting Noah play defense while he and Rose score 50 a game together; and OKC, where he, Durant, and Westbrook take over the West. And if he's giving a list with multiple names, it doesn't matter which team is first, just which is willing to give up the most in a sign and trade.

f5alcon :@VegaI think it is too early to tell with mullens, he is young, played few minutes at any level aside from d league. I doubt he ever is starting center quality, but could become a decent backup center. I think a full offseason of training, summer league and maybe another year in the dleague is needed before we have any semblance of what he will end up being. He is better then swift or petro ever looked.

I think Mullens will be better than what most Thunder fans think. Mullens has potential, at least give him that much credit. He can't help it that he is not Roddy B.

@Vega
I won't pretend I know anything about Bouroussiss, but I don't think Mozgov or Pekovic would work here. They are polar opposites. Mosgov is a tremendous defensive presence, but essentially useless on offense. He would be a good backup against big frontcourts (like now), but why would he come over to be a backup? Pekovic, conversely, is all over the place offensively, and can score like young Shaq within 10 feet of the basket. That said, Pekovic told teams when he was in the draft that he wouldn't be coming over anytime soon, and didn't even like the NBA. There's no point in trading for a player who probably never plays for us.

@Thundercat
This reply was for keith.

justin :@kev
Certainly this can be learned..? He’s young enough where it’s not a tough habit to break.
Marcus Camby was the same way for a long time.

I agree - I was only saying what he does now . . .

@f5alcon
Sports Animal. If anyone listens to this channel on a regular. Please let me know if this is true.

New topics?

With our 4 draft picks, what should we do?

I say draft a big (Larry Sanders?), draft a 3rd string pg (G. Vasquez), and then send the rest of the drafts to Europe (Elliot Williams & Kevin Seraphim(sp?).

I think our best shot at getting a legitimate center is to sign one of the European guys, like Timofey Mozgov or Yiannis Bouroussiss. We could also try to get Nikola Pekovic from Minnesota.

@Thundercat
Do you have a link? I find it hard to believe such a list would really have been leaked, as the only people seeing it would have no reason to spread the news. But if we are even on the list, that is huge.

@Vega
I'd love to keep saying how Mullens has the talent, but talent alone doesn't turn you into a quality NBA player. Right now I've seen nothing to assume he amounts to anything. He doesn't like playing in the post, utilizing his size, and he's not near a good enough outside shooter to do that. What's more, he's already said he wants to be a PF. That sounds a lot like, "I don't want to change or put in the work." If that is the case, he'll never get out of the D-league.

@The Rest
Serge is a 4. The way the league is (and all leagues are copycat leagues), most teams have their primary defender at the 5, as an anchor for the rest of the team. But there's no harm in having a Camby-esque guy at the 4 instead. Though, for all we know, he might be the next Josh Smith. As a rookie, it's very hard to gauge, but I like him a lot better at the 4 than 5.

Regardless, we need a scorer who can guard centers on and off for the frontcourt really to function.

@Vega
I think it is too early to tell with mullens, he is young, played few minutes at any level aside from d league. I doubt he ever is starting center quality, but could become a decent backup center. I think a full offseason of training, summer league and maybe another year in the dleague is needed before we have any semblance of what he will end up being. He is better then swift or petro ever looked.

@kev
Serge is a 4. Ithink he will gain 5 lbs in the offseason, but not enough to make him a dwight howard. Though i think that justin is right and we could pair him with a scoring rebounding 4 like lee and he could play the 5, but i would want a legit center krstic, mullens a draft pick behind him for bigger opponents.

@kev

Certainly this can be learned..? He's young enough where it's not a tough habit to break.

Marcus Camby was the same way for a long time.

Guys, is it true that Chris Bosh put a list out of all the places he wants to go, and Okc is 3rd on his list. Has anyone herd of this rumor?

Serge's issue is that he tries to block shots when he's getting posted up - maintaining proper defensive position is more important in that instance . . .

I think Ibaka is a four, but I hear people assuming he's starting at center next year - he doesnt even play backup center. Collison does . . .

Anonymous :
I think the back of the Serge shirt should be that qoute from Scott Brooks: “Jump high. Run fast. Block shots.”

YES! Royce, make that happen!

@Sammy

Plus it's usually the weak side defender who gets the block because of good positional defense by the other guy, that's what makes the collison ibaka frontcourt so good defensively

They're so similar.. I think Serge is a little more reliable as an offensive player, i.e. he knows his limitations and won't jack shots like Thomas does.

Just look at Noah / Thomas on the Bulls from last season, it'd be a similar situation.