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Thursday Bolts – 3.18.10

You have just a few minutes to get into the DT bracket group. Free stuff could be at stake. And because everyone is doing it, here’s my Final Four picks if you want to piggyback off them: John Tesh, North Carolina, the L.A. D-Fenders and Kansas. The Jayhawks are just that good this year.

A non-Thunder fan also saw a poorly officiated game: “Thunder fans are upset about the officiating, so am I. Most likely, we’re all upset by the free throw disparity between the two teams. The Bobcats had a free throw rate (FT Rate) of 41%. So basically, Charlotte took 2/5 as many free throws as field goals, a high rate; meanwhile, Oklahoma City struggled to get to the line (a FT Rate of only 21%). That, and a non-call when Jeff Green was “clubbed upside the head,” according to Daily Thunder is probably why Thunder fans are so mad.”

The NFL, MMA and then the NBA – seems like a natural progression for me: “G Jose Calderon has returned as the team’s starting point guard, replacing Jarrett Jack, as the Raptors try to find a way to deal with lax transition defense, a glut of team turnovers and mounting losses. And Calderon, who started against Mike Bibby and the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday, gets Michael Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday in Toronto’s next outing.” We just need Brian and we’ll have the Westbrook trio together at last. (h/t to Elegy 44)

Dime lists the NBA’s top 10 fastest players and even has a few honorable mention. And there’s no mention of Russell Westbrook. I can promise you, end to end with the ball in his hand, Westbrook’s darn to as fast as anybody. The other night, I counted him going from the paint to the other rim in just over three seconds.

Fanhouse has some power rankings and has OKC sixth: “You can’t call them a fluke at this point. Coming off an impressive win over the Jazz Sunday, the Thunder sit just three games back of Denver in the division. The dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook lead this uber-talented starting five into the playoffs, a unit that averages out to be a mere 23 years old.”

James Harden has a Q&A with SLAM: ”SLAM: You might have the best beard in the League. What are the three keys to keeping a fresh beard? JH: Get up and brush it like you would do your hair. You got to make sure it’s clean cut and—[bends over in laughter as Thabo Sefolosha shakes his head at him nearby]. You have to make sure it’s looking right at all times. You don’t want to go out there and have your beard looking all nasty.”

Darnell Mayberry coming strong: “And don’t give me the excuse that the Bobcats are 25-8 at home. The Thunder has won at San Antonio (24-10), at Utah (26-8), at Phoenix (26-9), at Atlanta (26-7), at New Orleans (21-12), at Portland (22-13) and at Miami (20-15). This was just a bad loss. Plain and simple. It would have been different had the game been nip and tuck throughout. But it’s inexcusable when you lead by as many as 19 points, against a team on the second night of a back-to-back, playing without its leading rebounder and second leading scorer.”

Thorpe’s Rookie Watch: ”Ibaka is another guy on this list who showed his considerable upside in summer league. He’s now a steady rotation player in Oklahoma City, providing a strong shot-blocking presence inside and good decision-making skills on offense. He hasn’t blown up like some other rooks have, but he has continued to make progress from month to month. When a player is nowhere near his potential but plays well in his role, he earns considerable value in the league. That is exactly where Ibaka stands right now. His face-up game is going to be good, and he projects to be an excellent shot-blocker. How many guys in the league can do both well?”

Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook breaks down the Bobcats lob that helped them pull away.

John Schuhmann of NBA.com revisits some preseason predictions: ”What wasn’t I thinking?: That the Thunder would be one of the five best defensive teams in the league. As terrific as Kevin Durant has been and as much as Russell Westbrook has improved, the Thunder’s team defense has been the biggest key to their success. There weren’t any signs of that as late as the preseason. There was clearly room for improvement, given the team’s youth. Also, one of their best defenders, Thabo Sefolosha, came over in a deadline deal last February. Still, they’ve made a huge leap on defense.”

I know some don’t care about OU news, but this is pretty big basketball news in this state because it could really cripple the Sooner basketball program. Tiny Gallon may have taken moolah: ”Gallon — a freshman center for the Sooners - scored a $3,000 wire transfer last August, according to a document obtained by TMZ. The money was deposited in a bank account jointly held by Keith and his mom, Sylvia Wright. As for who gave Keith the dough — the document shows it’s Jeffrey Hausinger, a Merrill Lynch financial advisor who reps several professional athletes. It’s a violation of NCAA rules for any player or player’s relative to receive money that isn’t readily available to other players — for example, a student loan or scholarship. We’re told the rule clearly prohibits any agent, lawyer or financial advisor from trying to lure a player with money.”

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Last season the most used lineup of 3 of the 4 conference finalists was +6 or higher on Adjusted +/-. The one that wasn't didn't make the Finals. The season before it was essentially the same if Jameer Nelson had been healthy enough to get his normal minute level.

If you want a big minute lineup that delivers winning edge I'd think you'd search for it among at least several options pretty hard. The Thunder, at least for this season, settled on a starting lineup that was negative for much of the season and is just neutral after being given huge minutes, huge opportunity.

They met or exceeded their goals for this season but either thru development or change the starting lineup probably will have to get better to get to the conference finals or beyond.

Thanks. Sometimes it happens that way.

Hard to get the perfect center.

Brooks Lopez apparently didn't offer enough on defense.

Mullens... it will be interesting if he does enough to become a part of the rotation by mid-next season. If not, it could still work out later... but odds would have to be moved down.

Crow, your on fire! Yeah, a couple of changes in order to be a 2-way strong team.
" The guy most like Perkins that they have right now is Collison"
Yeah, they need someone taller, longer, a little bigger, more athletic, but just as smart/crafty. Can we just go somewhere and order one?

Cavs coach Mike Brown is clearly a San Antonio style coach.

I haven't compared the style and choices of Ferry, Presti and Pritchard in detail, recently. But I'll probably get back to it.

"shares", not sales

Chandler, Diop, Diaw. Surely he wants to trade at least one.
Larry Brown probably wants to trade 2 or more.

Now that it is mostly his money (at least 'til he sells off sales of the Bobcats for more than he paid for it) I expect the Bobcats to be highly motivated to dump salary. There are several big contract / big guys from amongst they will try to pawn off at least one. Might you be able to get some combination of draft pick and young talent along with a big contract? I'd think there would be things to try.

The Lakers preferred starting lineup is the 7th most used in the league and would be higher without Gasol's absence. Charlotte's current starting lineup is 11th and would be higher if you pro-rated for the time after Jackson was acquired; so yeah, they both have a big minute starting lineup and a good defense like the others. Having a good system and a stable groups of guys executing it a high level of the time is a frequent pattern. Houston tends to do it that way as well. Cleveland is more like San Antonio in that their system trumps the lineup and they don't have (or at least haven't had) a big minute lineup.

@Crow

I wonder if it is a coincidence that the teams you're mentioning (Boston, Orlando and OKC) that are set in their lineups are also top defensive teams. Do Charlotte and LA come close?

6-9 months ago I was saying the starting lineup needed 2-4 changes to get where they want to go. Westbrook is now locked in thru his rookie contract. But I'd say it is still likely to "need" or "be helped by" 2-3 changes in the next 2-3 years. Maybe one is enough, maybe they don't change at all. Getting to 50 wins is a big accomplishment but doing something bigger from there in the playoffs is even tougher.

4razr, The guy most like Perkins that they have right now is Collison. If you want more, fine, probably necessary, but he is the benchmark. Got to provide more than that.

A better starting center is indeed the most obvious way to improve conceptually but hard to get it done.

If Ibaka eventually got into the starting lineup at PF either he'll need to learn to play better with Krstic or as you suggest Krstic goes to the bench, replaced by Collison or a new guy.

In case you were wondering, these aren't the new methods of lineup analysis I mentioned. They go more to coaching- the lineup patterns, responses to match-ups and immediate results, how these things look in wins and losses and compared to other top teams, the speed and frequency of changes, and such.

Ibaka-Krstic? Might they someday go to that? Well they spent just 65 minutes looking at it this season and it was ok to bad and mostly bad.

Boston's top lineup is +12 on Adjusted +/- and rates 112 on offensive efficiency and 98 on defensive efficiency. Their top lineup was +15 when they won the championship.

Orlando's top lineup is also +12 on Adjusted and rates 113 on offensive efficiency and 99 on defensive efficiency.

OKC's top lineup is neutral on Adjusted and rates 107.4 on offensive efficiency and 103.6 on defensive efficiency.

They are all mainly facing starters I assume.
League average efficiency is 107.3.

If you want to be like Boston and Orlando you need to get a lot better on especially starting lineup offense or do it a very different way.

The way they are doing what they are doing right now is by having a bench that maintains a strong defense. Apparently neither Boston or Orlando maintains the sensational defensive efficiency of the starting lineup when they blend in much in the way of bench guys. But in the playoffs they aren't going to do that. It is mostly your best 5 for even bigger minutes. The Thunder's starters as a unit don't look like contenders in that cut.

eh, in the first paragraph of the previous post...

"wait" for it
(not what)

If you can't get a starting lineup strong on offense and defense at the same time, or won't go that way- preferring to save some for the bench- then maybe they need to dance guys in and out more frequently, more like San Antonio.

This is repetitive but... if the Thunder wants strong defense and good shooting and stay with a high minute starting lineup then either one or more of the guys not named Durant will have to "develop" into a better shooter / scorer (how many years do you what for it? when does time run out on that for Krstic, Green, Thabo or Westbrook?) or they'll need to change other guys into it.

I guess having a bench with more offensive capability, used skillfully, could compensate. But when you don't have many guys who are clearly and consistently 2 way strong as players it is harder to be 2 way strong as a team and you usually need to be that to be great.

Orlando, Boston and OKC have 3 of the top 8 most used lineups in the league and if Jameer Nelson hadn't been hurt Orlando probably would have been top 5 like the others instead of 8th and climbing.

San Antonio has generally not had a high minute lineup.
Til the playoffs.

("bunch" not much. Would be nice if my fingers typed what my brain thought more reliably.)

Looking at Ibaka's top 10 lineups (20+ minutes for the season) 7 are with Collison (5 postive on team +/-), 2 with Green (both negative, one badly) and 1 with Durant at PF (positive).

(I have recently thought of a much of new ways to evaluate lineup management. But I am not going to talk about them, at least yet.)

Good find on the Pop quote 4razr.

Orlando, Boston, San Antonio follow very close to the same model. The main differences are the Spurs aren't getting to the line much and Boston believes more in steals than fouling.

Somehow they have gotten very good shooting and defense. Presti has so far gotten the latter.

I can't help myself. Everyone is focused on the playoffs, and then I read a quote like this all I can think about is, "How is this team going to get better?"

- Gregg Popovich praised the Magic following the game. "I think they are built for championships. They have everything that it takes. They have an inside game, obviously. They have a perimeter game to go with it and a team needs to have both. The three-point shot is very important to winning championships. The inside game is important. They have the depth that is necessary. Defensively, they are leading the league in defensive field goal percentage and if you don't play defense, you don't win championships. They have all the elements there; it's a matter of being consistent and focused. I think they have the ability to get it done," he said. http://www.hoopsworld.com/Blogs/CourtsideBlog.asp?...

I went on a long walk and kept going over this in my mind. We haven't had either an inside presence or a perimiter game since the departure of Lewis and Allen (though it is getting better). I thought about our players, and I thought about teams that have won, and I realized, we have a lot of similarities to the Celtics. Westbrook plays the Rondo role. Harden steps in for Allen. Durant for Pierce. Ibaka is KG ultralight. All that leaves is someone to play the Perkins role. I don't see Mullens there (in my dreams, maybe), so who's the guy? Haywood? Gortat? Probably not available. Milicic? Says he's gone. Someone in the draft? Have to go back and look at those draft prospects profiled a bit back. But the more I think about it, the more I think what we need is a legit center who can bang and rebound and defend against anyone, not a forward to step in for Green. I think Ibaka is a forward. I think Green would be great off the bench behind Durant and Ibaka. A bench of Maynor, Thabo, Green, Collison, Kristic sounds pretty good.
The new starting lineup looks much more balanced. Harden and Durant on the perimiter. Westbrook driving and setting the plate. Ibaka cleaning up on the inside and developing his face-up game. And someone who can post up and defend. I think this lineup has excellent defensive potential as well.
I'd also like to see this lineup with Kristic, because he's a good position defender and can draw the opposing center out of the paint. I just don't see him, or Ibaka, being the answer against Howard, Bynum, Gasol (either one), and a few of the other bigs around the league. We need someone else for that.

So I say we forget about landing Lee, Boozer, or even Bosh, or someone in that mold. We need a tree. Agree? Disagree? Can we make like Boston and ride to a ch'ip?

Royce Young :@f5alcon

Kind of strange how fickle we’re all becoming, isn’t it? One loss and we’re all huffy and upset.
I honestly think it’s because deep down, we’re not ENTIRELY confident that this team can keep this up for three more weeks. I think it’s so surreal to go from 23 wins to potentially the four-seed in the West, that we feel like every loss could be the beginning of a major slide.

"we feel like every loss could be the beginning of a major slide"

good grief guys, buck up. last night was not the beginning of any slide. Playoff are a virtual lock. The team will do just fine down the stretch. sheesh.

@Tom
we have a 40% chance of making the playoffs if we go 3-13 the rest of the way, a 70% chance at 4-12. we can loose to all winning teams and still make it, just beating philly, golden state and wolves should do it.

Royce Young :@f5alcon Kind of strange how fickle we’re all becoming, isn’t it? One loss and we’re all huffy and upset.
I honestly think it’s because deep down, we’re not ENTIRELY confident that this team can keep this up for three more weeks. I think it’s so surreal to go from 23 wins to potentially the four-seed in the West, that we feel like every loss could be the beginning of a major slide.

I think you are exactly right. This team has not made the playoffs yet

@Royce Young
I think you are exactly right. This team has not made the playoffs yet

@JelloPuddinPup
yeah thats true, but for us to really fall to the 8th seed that means we slid pretty bad, the spurs with such a difficult schedule should fall to 8th.

Ibaka's dunk might not have made the Top 10 however, it did make it on Youtube so, you can watch it over and over again...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPyOW9XfedY

@f5alcon

I don't think we should be picky. I'm happy with ANY playoff seed. We weren't even expected to make them.

And I feel strongly enough about our team that we can play against anyone in the playoffs. We may not win or play well, but the other teams are just as likely to do the same. I wouldn't mind having San Antonio though. I think we could wear them down the best.

Of course, I want to win a playoff series (and more), but I don't care what seed we enter the playoffs with, as long as we enter them. :)

Now that the tournament has started... lots of chalk there Royce.

Remember that last night's game wasn't on FS-Oklahoma (and who knows about the Charlotte fees). Considering KSBI's track record, would anyone be surprised if the feed didn't make it to ESPN?

Side note: I just realized the acronym for the World-wide Leader in Sports would be WWLS. There's just something terribly wrong with that.

@Snowflake
It didn't make NBA TV's Top 10 either, which is a little ridiculous when you watch what did.

@Snowflake
Yeah, saw this morning and couldn't believe it. I thought that was a guaranteed top 5.

Okay so i just got done watching SportsCenter's Top 10 Plays and Ibaka's putback wasn't in there! I'm furious!!!

well at this point i'm just anxious about meeting denver or LA in the first round and getting the 5th seed for pretty much guarantee us utah

@Royce Young
yeah, i mean i want a good seed, but i would still be happy with a 5,6 or 7 seed. Really if we beat the spurs, rockets, blazers, suns, grizzles, we can probably maintain our seeding over them.

@Lefty
Hello Saturday Morning Cartoon.

@f5alcon
Kind of strange how fickle we're all becoming, isn't it? One loss and we're all huffy and upset.

I honestly think it's because deep down, we're not ENTIRELY confident that this team can keep this up for three more weeks. I think it's so surreal to go from 23 wins to potentially the four-seed in the West, that we feel like every loss could be the beginning of a major slide.

Formatting is pretty wonky on that. Sorry.

This is a pretty fantastic video, in case any of you haven't seen it yet: http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_tv/2010/03/1...

well just have to move on from the loss, they happen, at this point its not derailing our playoff hopes, as long as we beat raptors and pacers. nobody has ever gone 82-0 so even the best teams ever lose.