Daily Thunder.com

Daniel :

Kivman :Thankfully, the Sonics made up for the McIlvane mistake by getting Calvin Booth. Oh wait…

And then drafting Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Saer Sene in the first round in three straight drafts. Oh wait…

And who can forget Rich King, that 7'2" savior from Nebraska?

Kivman :Thankfully, the Sonics made up for the McIlvane mistake by getting Calvin Booth. Oh wait…

And then drafting Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Saer Sene in the first round in three straight drafts. Oh wait...

Thankfully, the Sonics made up for the McIlvane mistake by getting Calvin Booth. Oh wait...

Sammy :
Do you remember how the Bulls and Sonics were really close to a Kemp for Pippin deal? I think it might have been after the ‘94 season. It would have broken my heart at the time, but it’s a pretty amazing what if in retrospect.

Don't forget...Pippen was the Sonics but they traded him for Olden Polynice on draft night. Good times...

Over the last 10 games the minutes for Green and Collison are down a bit. Krstic and Ibaka up. But the changes are all about 1-2 minutes and may or may not mean anything.

Wow, Bargnani is fast.

If you want to "manage" Green's salary expectations a simple option would be to pull him back to 30-32 minutes next season. He might not like it but...

Nobody above the Thunder in win% starts a guy weaker on offense than Thabo.

I don't think any free agent, or even Westbrook will be the standard set. Right now, it's all on Green. Everyone knows Durant is going to get the max. He's the everything for the team, and every other player knows it. Westbrook may get the max, but he's on his way to deserving it. How our money management breaks down the line will be determined by Green. If we overpay for his chemistry/off-court relationship, then we can expect everyone to be demanding more than their worth.

Thabo looks like a fish out of water rookie with the ball in his hands. He looks nervous and the game moves too fast, which leads to all his botched fast breaks and misses at the rim. It's unclear whether he'll ever be any sort of asset on offense; it's pretty bad that I feel nervous when the ball is dumped to him wide-open right under the rim on a back door cut.

Thabo's minutes have drifted down a bit as Harden's have expanded. Thabo got 33 minutes a game in November and now it is 26-27. Next season will it be the same level or 22-24?

His inside finishing FG% and FT rate are both improving with the FG% being particularly strong recently. Almost never shoots from 5-15 feet. Good thing as his FG% from that range is really weak. Has 2 good months from 16-23 feet out of 5. His 3 ball is tolerable but barely.

Do you remember how the Bulls and Sonics were really close to a Kemp for Pippin deal? I think it might have been after the '94 season. It would have broken my heart at the time, but it's a pretty amazing what if in retrospect.

Westbrook eventually wanting the max or near max to stay wasn't anticipated in the design at the time of the draft.
Turning him and Green lose for huge minutes and more shots they probably ought to get will make it tougher to contain their salary desires. The handling of Harden is something of the opposite and may be a spinoff of the management of the other two.

If they get Harden 30+ minutes a game, they might have a pretty good chance of muting the starter issue- if they pay him according to his minutes and production. But they have to get to at least summer 2012, probably summer 2013 or maybe even 2014 before a new deal gets done. If everything goes perfect or nearly so they'll get it done. If not...

Influences on Cardinal's breakout 03-04 performance in Golden State include the departure of Gilbert Arenas the previous summer and the lack of a real #2 scorer. He seized an unusual opportunity and surprised defenders and probably opposing coaches before they knew what he could and could not do.

Do it 2 seasons in a row I'll tend to believe it.

Cardinal's efficiency came back to below average the next season.

@Bob
i agree that thabo is better as a starter. As a fan its easy for us to say how the team should look, but i doubt its hardens dream to be a 6th man, im sure he wants to start, being a starter mean he gets more money. All of the top 6th men started off as starters and then moved to the bench, ginobilli, crawford, terry all used to start. Harden never has, he is going to want to, its only natural. The team has to respect that or risk making him mad or frustrated.

Brian Cardinal is used as an example that even "great" GMs make mistakes (Jerry West). He actually lead the league in TS% the season before West bought the small sample performance. Again not quite 2000 minutes logged in at time of signing and only one real season of playing.

@Keith
Biedrins and Okafor, at least, have untradeable contracts--meaning they couldn't be given away for expiring contracts! They are really, really overpaid.

OKC could have had those two (or Haywood, Butler, Jamison or Camby who were all traded for expirings mostly) at the deadline. They're all bad assets for a young team. Presti's not going in that direction and that's it.

big minute / big "money" guys

Julian Wright is his only other non-"locked -in" starter... but he did begin the season as a starter and he is again now... in year 3.

@f5alcon

I just dont think that Thabo would be effective from the bench. He has the ability to shut down great scorers like no-one else in the league (i'm exaggerating i know). I'd like to quote B-RY, a dailythunder reader, after the game at miami(amazing defense on wade):
To me, Thabo is like one of those Ronco “Showtime Rotisseries” – you “just set it, and forget it”

Players like thabo will get forgotten fast because they won't score in high numbers and you dont see them in the highlights of a game. I just wanted to say he is a great player and i think he is a bit underpaid (brian cardinal gets 6 millions!).

Agents can get cranky if their top draft pick doesn't get starter minutes by year 3. Harden's agent, Rob Pelinka, is #3 in total contract value and prefers the big minute / big minute guys. 11 of his 13 clients are starters. Will have to see what he gets Boozer.

First off, great article Justin.

As far as Thabo goes, one thing has really stuck with me about his extension: if the Thunder hadn't wrapped him up, there would have been a $8 million cap hold next summer or they would have to renounce their rights to him.

@Bob
even if other teams wanted him i doubt they pay him more, he isnt an MLE player. Bobcats only have felton coming off the books so are committed to 62MM next year, so i doubt they add a 5 or 6 million dollar contract with thabo. I agree he wanted to stay here, but i doubt he would have gotten much more elsewhere, SGs are a dime a dozen. he would only really be looked at by defense first teams.

harden right now in the starting lineup might not be the best idea but if he makes a westbrook or durant like jump next year and averages 16/5/5 or so which is a possibility, no reason to keep him from starting, especially if we add a big man scorer and ibaka continues to develop his shot. Our starters then can build a cushion and the 2nd team comes in and holds the lead with tough defense.

@dirkdajerk
It has to happen, harden was drafted number 3, so unless he gets hurt or regresses he will eventually start, maybe not next year, but the year after. either that or a ben gordon-esque departure, im sure there are multiple teams that would start harden.

Oh and Harden in the starting lineup instead of thabo is just stupid. Harden would not be that effective imo. Harden is way better when he has the job to score and not defend or share the ball. IMO thabo just didnt want to leave OKC. I mean why leave? He has durant & co as teammates, a coach good who appreciates his work and gets many minutes to play.

Crow :
San Antonio might have had interest in Thabo this summer but not sure if they would have paid and played him.
Thabo’s deal is probably enough of a win for both sides.

Lots of teams were interested. For some reason the bobcats wanted him. Since when does Larry Brown not trade for old established players?

If anything shakes this, it will probably be playoff performance, or at least that would be a good reason.

That last comment was somewhat contradictory but I think they will let the force build awhile and be sure that they want to do it and stick with it rather than bounce back and forth like some coaches / teams do.

So far Westbrook, Thabo, Durant, Green and Krstic as starters have had very little second-guessing.

Krstic had some Collison substitution last season but not this season.

If he is going to start in 2011-12 or soon after when do you start building that starting lineup chemistry? They'll do it when they want to, probably when they can't stop it.

Thabo can start next year and Harden just has to put up with it. It could stay that way again in 2011-12 but either Harden eventually starts or he will leave.

San Antonio might have had interest in Thabo this summer but not sure if they would have paid and played him.

Thabo's deal is probably enough of a win for both sides.

Excellent article Justin. I remember those deals like they were yesterday.

What's really funny is that I was terribly relieved when we were able to salvage an All Star power forward out of Shawn Kemp after he publicly said he would never again play for the Sonics...he was very insulted by Jimmy Mac's deal. I thought we would get nothing back for Kemp. Baker was a player....for a year.

But regarding Jimmy Mac, what makes this move so sad is that like Crow said, it was a small sample deal. And not only did Wally Walker make that mistake with Jimmy Mac, he did it again a few years later with Calvin Booth.....

Wally is not one of my favorite GM's.

Why is there talk of Harden taking over Thabo's starting position. Harden is the best offense the second unit has, and a big reason the Thunder can hold or increase leads when the starters need to catch their breath. OKC would have to pick up/draft someone who could really score, and be willing to do so on the second unit. Thabo is a defensive guy obviously...we don't need him guarding the 2nd units best player.

Livingston gets to finish the season with Washington.

There are several guys in europe who might be worthwhile, but as for translating their performance and figuring buyout and what it would take to get them, I probably won't venture that far into it anymore.

His PER, affected by low usage and low efficiency, is at 9.6. Not many guys with a 9.6 PER get a 4 year extension. But Thabo is in a special class of role players.

@Bob
i dunno if thabo will reget it, he was a bench player in chicago, has no offensive game, which limits his appeal to a lot of teams, even here, harden will probably be the eventual starter. Signing an extension was probably the smart thing for him, what if harden had a evans like rookie year and displaced thabo as the starter quickly, then we let thabo go and he might not even find an nba team, much less get paid 3 million a year

Thabo isn't fully captured by individual stats but shooting / scoring percentage (never been close to league average) and turnovers committed per possession (highest since his rookie season) are still part of the story. Assist ratio is at career low, steals rate down 20% from last season's career high.

Presti signing Thabo for this kind of long-term deal is clearly a forward-looking part of the strategy of trying to stay positioned to squeeze all the necessary ingredients in. How good deal it is for the team will emerge over time. He might be a trade chip at some point, but almost everyone "might be".

Crow :
I doubt Thabo would have done better by waiting but we’ll see.

He would have done better but i think he was afraid of not playing in the NBA for some reason. I think he saw that OKC is perfect for his family. By the way he has 3 children with 25?

I doubt Thabo would have done better by waiting but we'll see.

@Vega
tiago might not play in the nba he would have to take a pay cut to come here, same issue with rubio, the allure of the NBA only goes so far. I mean who is going to turn down millions just so they can be a decent player in a league where they are a star somewhere else. At least initially rookie scale pay would also limit their earnings.

Crow :
Will there be another major case of a guy regretting the long-term deal he took too early? Probably not. Hypothetically it could happen if Ibaka were to take an extension after year 3 and sell himself short or Mullens were to do that.

Thabo did and probably will regret it.

Bouroussis will be 27 in November. Sounds like he is more an offensive guy. Not really much of a shot-blocker. A possibility.

I wrote one a week or so ago. I'll send it when I get back to my house.

How about Yiannis Bouroussis? He's the premiere Euro center, and he's a free agent. His preference was to sign with San Antonio, but considering how they are no longer title contenders, I can see him coming to OKC. Another option is Tiago Splitter. The Spurs may not have enough money to sign him, so perhaps they would be willing to deal him.

@dj
I think most of us have enough faith in Presti that he won't trade for someone horrendously overpriced. Is Bosh a max contract player? Well, he's not Lebron or Kobe, but he's better than other max contract players out there. I'd make a trade for him. Is 9 million too much for Biedrins, 12 million too much for Jefferson, or 11 million too much for Okafor? Maybe, but not by too much.

People tend to forget that Etan, Collison, Harpring, and Krstic all make more money than Durant, and that Watson made more as well. Our guys don't have the luxury of being bent out of shape over someone else's contract, it's how the CBA works right now. Further, Presti has been stockpiling guys with good character. Kemp's situation was very unique given when he signed his contract plus his immaturity. Given money is more likely to go down that up, I don't see that situation being readily repeatable.

@Kivman
yeah bringing in an outside FA can hurt, but plenty of cases where it has helped,and there is a big difference between trading kemp and trading green, lakers last 4 titles, heat, pistons, celtics, pretty much all the championship teams in the past decade except the spurs had brought in free agents that played a major role on the team,and even the spurs brought in bowen and horry during their titles.

Nice and smart guy though. Worked with the union. Now runs a camp for kids among other things.

McIlvaine was a poster boy for not going overboard on small samples. He didn't have 2000 minutes logged in and only 6 career starts when Sonics management bet on him.

Bernard :I am interested in writing one, how many words are suggested?

Whatever you feel like. It could be 200. It could be 2,000. Go crazy.

This is a good article. I remember it clearly. McIllvaine couldn't find his ass with either hand. And Kemp, not the most emotionally mature guy, went crazy.

Bottom line, this is EXACTLY why trading for some high priced center (Okafor, Beidrins, Dalembart, etc) is so problematic. Once Presti sets the bar he's going to have to live with it.