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	<title>Comments on: The five factors of playoff basketball: The bad news</title>
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	<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/</link>
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		<title>By: Kev</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63931</link>
		<dc:creator>Kev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 23:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>DJ White is averaging over 20 pts per game and 8 rebound per game (per 40) in basically his rookie year  . . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DJ White is averaging over 20 pts per game and 8 rebound per game (per 40) in basically his rookie year  . . .</p>
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		<title>By: Kev</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63929</link>
		<dc:creator>Kev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:56:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>more reliable doesnt mean that you can draw a valid inference - 

we just don&#039;t know yet  . . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>more reliable doesnt mean that you can draw a valid inference &#8211; </p>
<p>we just don&#8217;t know yet  . . .</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63916</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 20:57:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Kobe&#039;s first year per 40 stats were very good: 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals. There were signs he was going to be a real player.

D.J. played 128 minutes last year, and only 71 minutes this year. Serge has played 885 minutes, roughly 4.43 times more minutes than D.J. The sample size is much larger, therefore more reliable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kobe&#8217;s first year per 40 stats were very good: 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals. There were signs he was going to be a real player.</p>
<p>D.J. played 128 minutes last year, and only 71 minutes this year. Serge has played 885 minutes, roughly 4.43 times more minutes than D.J. The sample size is much larger, therefore more reliable.</p>
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		<title>By: kev</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63889</link>
		<dc:creator>kev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 19:47:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63889</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;#commentbody-63882&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-63882&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;DL &lt;/a&gt; :&lt;/strong&gt;Dwight Howard is probably the best center in the world! I’m not saying Serge is going to become Dwight Howard. I am saying that Serge will be a legit starting center in the NBA–and the measurements and the stats do show some similarities between Dwight and Serge in their early careers.
Dwight’s per 40 stats in his rookie year:14.7 points, 52.0% shooting, 12.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks
Serge’s per 40 stats this year (and he’s improving weekly):13.7 points, 53.5% shooting, 12.0 rebounds, 2.7 blocks
I’m not saying they’re going to be the same player (Serge will never have Dwight’s raw power) but the stats indicate a very bright future. As a center!&lt;/blockquote&gt;


you&#039;re basically doing what someone did with DJ White&#039;s stats . . . you&#039;re making assumptions . . .

you are using per40 stats - there is a good reason why he doesn&#039;t get more time - he&#039;s not good enough (yet) . . .

again, I will pull up another future HOF player - I am too lazy to look it up, but Kobe&#039;s first year numbers were probably pedestrian - I am sure there are more than a few 2 guards that have similar rookie numbers - that doesnt mean they will come close to Kobe or even start - I am a stat geek, but I DON&#039;T really use them to predict future performance - there are too many variables . . . one important variable is work ethic . . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote cite="#commentbody-63882"><p>
<strong><a href="#comment-63882" rel="nofollow">DL </a> :</strong>Dwight Howard is probably the best center in the world! I’m not saying Serge is going to become Dwight Howard. I am saying that Serge will be a legit starting center in the NBA–and the measurements and the stats do show some similarities between Dwight and Serge in their early careers.<br />
Dwight’s per 40 stats in his rookie year:14.7 points, 52.0% shooting, 12.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks<br />
Serge’s per 40 stats this year (and he’s improving weekly):13.7 points, 53.5% shooting, 12.0 rebounds, 2.7 blocks<br />
I’m not saying they’re going to be the same player (Serge will never have Dwight’s raw power) but the stats indicate a very bright future. As a center!</p></blockquote>
<p>you&#8217;re basically doing what someone did with DJ White&#8217;s stats . . . you&#8217;re making assumptions . . .</p>
<p>you are using per40 stats &#8211; there is a good reason why he doesn&#8217;t get more time &#8211; he&#8217;s not good enough (yet) . . .</p>
<p>again, I will pull up another future HOF player &#8211; I am too lazy to look it up, but Kobe&#8217;s first year numbers were probably pedestrian &#8211; I am sure there are more than a few 2 guards that have similar rookie numbers &#8211; that doesnt mean they will come close to Kobe or even start &#8211; I am a stat geek, but I DON&#8217;T really use them to predict future performance &#8211; there are too many variables . . . one important variable is work ethic . . .</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63882</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 19:18:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63882</guid>
		<description>Dwight Howard is probably the best center in the world! I&#039;m not saying Serge is going to become Dwight Howard. I am saying that Serge will be a legit starting center in the NBA--and the measurements and the stats do show some similarities between Dwight and Serge in their early careers.

Dwight&#039;s per 40 stats in his rookie year:
14.7 points, 52.0% shooting, 12.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks

Serge&#039;s per 40 stats this year (and he&#039;s improving weekly):
13.7 points, 53.5% shooting, 12.0 rebounds, 2.7 blocks

I&#039;m not saying they&#039;re going to be the same player (Serge will never have Dwight&#039;s raw power) but the stats indicate a very bright future. As a center!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dwight Howard is probably the best center in the world! I&#8217;m not saying Serge is going to become Dwight Howard. I am saying that Serge will be a legit starting center in the NBA&#8211;and the measurements and the stats do show some similarities between Dwight and Serge in their early careers.</p>
<p>Dwight&#8217;s per 40 stats in his rookie year:<br />
14.7 points, 52.0% shooting, 12.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks</p>
<p>Serge&#8217;s per 40 stats this year (and he&#8217;s improving weekly):<br />
13.7 points, 53.5% shooting, 12.0 rebounds, 2.7 blocks</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying they&#8217;re going to be the same player (Serge will never have Dwight&#8217;s raw power) but the stats indicate a very bright future. As a center!</p>
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		<title>By: kev</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63879</link>
		<dc:creator>kev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:48:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63879</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote cite=&quot;#commentbody-63877&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-63877&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;DL &lt;/a&gt; :&lt;/strong&gt;Any 5′7″ kid with Spud Webb’s vertical leap and baseline to baseline speed has a legitimate chance to make it. There are very few human beings with that kind of athleticism.
There are very few people on the planet with 9′3″ standing reach and 35 inch vertical leap. Serge and Dwight are two of those people.&lt;/blockquote&gt;


you are assuming that Ibaka will put on weight - that&#039;s speculative . . . 

if it happens then great - but it may not . . .  Ibaka was drafted lower than Howard for a reason . . . 

I want Ibaka to be a future center, but it may not happen.  Even Presti isn&#039;t sold - if he was, he wouldnt have spent the last first round pick on Mullens, especially looking at our lack of outside shooting . . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote cite="#commentbody-63877"><p>
<strong><a href="#comment-63877" rel="nofollow">DL </a> :</strong>Any 5′7″ kid with Spud Webb’s vertical leap and baseline to baseline speed has a legitimate chance to make it. There are very few human beings with that kind of athleticism.<br />
There are very few people on the planet with 9′3″ standing reach and 35 inch vertical leap. Serge and Dwight are two of those people.</p></blockquote>
<p>you are assuming that Ibaka will put on weight &#8211; that&#8217;s speculative . . . </p>
<p>if it happens then great &#8211; but it may not . . .  Ibaka was drafted lower than Howard for a reason . . . </p>
<p>I want Ibaka to be a future center, but it may not happen.  Even Presti isn&#8217;t sold &#8211; if he was, he wouldnt have spent the last first round pick on Mullens, especially looking at our lack of outside shooting . . .</p>
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		<title>By: J.G.</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63878</link>
		<dc:creator>J.G.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:46:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63878</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d say the bigger indicator is their play style. And Howard IS a center, true and true. Back to the basket, 8 feet or in shooting, great hands, dominating the paint center.

Serge is more of a jumpshooting, weakside shotblocking, KG-esque PF type of player (probably why Serge said that KG was his favorite player and the player he models himself after) in his attributes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d say the bigger indicator is their play style. And Howard IS a center, true and true. Back to the basket, 8 feet or in shooting, great hands, dominating the paint center.</p>
<p>Serge is more of a jumpshooting, weakside shotblocking, KG-esque PF type of player (probably why Serge said that KG was his favorite player and the player he models himself after) in his attributes.</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63877</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:45:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63877</guid>
		<description>Any 5&#039;7&quot; kid with Spud Webb&#039;s vertical leap and baseline to baseline speed has a legitimate chance to make it. There are very few human beings with that kind of athleticism.

There are very few people on the planet with 9&#039;3&quot; standing reach and 35 inch vertical leap. Serge and Dwight are two of those people.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Any 5&#8217;7&#8243; kid with Spud Webb&#8217;s vertical leap and baseline to baseline speed has a legitimate chance to make it. There are very few human beings with that kind of athleticism.</p>
<p>There are very few people on the planet with 9&#8217;3&#8243; standing reach and 35 inch vertical leap. Serge and Dwight are two of those people.</p>
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		<title>By: kev</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63873</link>
		<dc:creator>kev</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:33:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63873</guid>
		<description>I said the comparison was absurd because you are implying that since Spud Webb (5-7) played in the NBA, then every 5-7 kid that plays high school ball has a legitimate shot to make it . . . 

Ibaka MIGHT develop and get a body similar to Howard&#039;s, but it is doubtful . . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I said the comparison was absurd because you are implying that since Spud Webb (5-7) played in the NBA, then every 5-7 kid that plays high school ball has a legitimate shot to make it . . . </p>
<p>Ibaka MIGHT develop and get a body similar to Howard&#8217;s, but it is doubtful . . .</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.dailythunder.com/2010/03/the-five-factors-of-playoff-basketball-the-bad-news/comment-page-3/#comment-63870</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:28:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=8552#comment-63870</guid>
		<description>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMK4UXr3XrU

This is video of Dwight Howard as a rookie in summer league. He&#039;s 6&#039;10&quot;, 240 pounds. He doesn&#039;t look that much bigger than Serge right now. Nothing absurd about the comparison.

I&#039;m not saying Serge has to get to 275 pounds or whatever Dwight weighs now, but he&#039;s definitely going to get bigger.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMK4UXr3XrU" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMK4UXr3XrU</a></p>
<p>This is video of Dwight Howard as a rookie in summer league. He&#8217;s 6&#8217;10&#8243;, 240 pounds. He doesn&#8217;t look that much bigger than Serge right now. Nothing absurd about the comparison.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying Serge has to get to 275 pounds or whatever Dwight weighs now, but he&#8217;s definitely going to get bigger.</p>
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