The battle for fourth: Breaking down the schedules
The Western Conference playoff race is tight. Like super-tight. Like tight like Gabourey Sidibe walking through an average-sized doorway. Right now, 2.5 games separate fourth place from eighth place. There are four winning streaks going in the top eight of the West and every team is playing above .500 its last 10 games.
And you want to finish fourth because that means you get to play on your home floor for your first game of the postseason. That’s huge, especially to a young team like the Thunder. But a lot of what could decide it won’t necessarily be who’s hot at the right time, but the upcoming schedules for the teams in contention. I’m going to assume the top three in the West will go the Lakers, Dallas and Denver in some order, leaving Utah, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, San Antonio and Portland to battle it out for fourth. So who has the easiest path to that fourth spot? Let’s look:
UTAH JAZZ
Current record: 42-24 (half game ahead of OKC)
Number of games left: 16
Number of home games: 8
Number of road games: 8
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 6
Number of games against current playoff teams: 6
Number of back-to-backs left: 4
Games against Oklahoma City left: 1 (at Utah)
Tiebreaker: OKC (3-0 vs. Jazz)
Schedule Difficulty Rank (of the teams in consideration): 5
Utah definitely has the lightest schedule of the teams battling for fourth. The Jazz have an even amount of road and home games, plus get Oklahoma City at home. Out of their remaining 16 games, they only play six .500 or better teams and just have four back-to-backs. It all sets up for a favorable schedule for the Jazz.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Current record: 41-24 (half game back of Utah)
Number of games left: 17
Number of home games: 8
Number of road games: 9
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 12
Number of games against current playoff teams: 11
Number of back-to-backs left: 5
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 2
The Thunder have a tough schedule, especially because a lot of the games they play against sub-.500 teams are on the road. For instance, this week the Thunder goes to Toronto and Indiana, both teams under .500, but both teams decent at home. Plus OKC has a healthy number of back-to-backs left. Realistically, I think in the final 17, OKC could go 10-7, but also could very easily got 8-9 or maybe worse. It’s a tough finish but the good news is that the Thunder plays every team around it during the finishing stretch. So if there’s ground to be made up, at least the Thunder will have destiny in their hands for the most part instead of relying on someone else.
PHOENIX SUNS
Current record: 41-26 (one game back of OKC)
Number of games left: 15
Number of home games: 7
Number of road games: 8
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 8
Number of games against current playoff teams: 7
Number of back-to-backs left: 4
Games against Oklahoma City left: 1 (at OKC)
Tiebreaker: Not decided yet (1-1 vs. PHX)
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 3
The Suns don’t have it easy with eight road games and eight of their final 15 being against quality opponents. And the remaining game against the Thunder is in the Ford Center.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Current record: 39-25 (1.5 games back of OKC)
Number of games left: 18
Number of home games: 7
Number of road games: 11
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 14
Number of games against current playoff teams: 12
Number of back-to-backs left: 5
Games against Oklahoma City left: 1 (at OKC)
Tiebreaker: Not decided yet (1-2 vs. SA)
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 1
No question in my mind, the Spurs have the toughest remaining schedule. They play the most games yet, plus have 11 of their final 18 on the road with a stunning 14 of them coming against .500 clubs. There’s a real chance for San Antonio to slip to eighth here. And the icing on the cake is that the game left against OKC is at the Ford Center.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Current record: 41-28 (two games back of OKC)
Number of games left: 13
Number of home games: 6
Number of road games: 7
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 7
Number of games against current playoff teams: 7
Number of back-to-backs left: 2
Games against Oklahoma City left: 2 (one in OKC, one in Portland)
Tiebreaker: Not decided yet (1-1 vs. PDX)
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 4
The Blazers have the fewest games remaining, but play a solid number against playoff caliber teams. This is the only opponent OKC plays twice and with the season series split at 1-1, these will be big games. Most don’t realize that Portland is just two games back of the Thunder.
I hate to guess, but if I were, I’d say 53 wins would lock away the fourth seed in the West. That would mean the Thunder would need to go 12-5 to get there. Is that possible? Definitely. But against this schedule, it could be tough. To reach 50 wins, the Thunder would need to go 9-8, which is definitely achievable. But I don’t know if that record would get the fourth seed. This will be an extremely competitive finish and like I said, the Thunder has a chance at the tiebreaker against everyone and also a chance to catch up or distance themselves against everyone.
heh, a little OT but… that pic cracks me up. It’s probably just a perspective thing, but it really looks like Collison is trying to push something into Krstic’s ear
Looking at the schedule, it seems that the most likely scenario is as follows:
4. Utah
5. PHX
6. OKC
7. Portland
8. San Antonio
That is my guess, but hopefully some impressive play down the stretch will put us in the 4 or 5 spot and away from a 1st round series with Denver…
@Durantula
Agree with that order. We could end up tied with Phoenix. That loss to them in the final seconds really hurts.
what is scary about the playoffs for the thunder is the fact that of the current eight playoffs teams, the thunder have the worst record against the western conference.
According to that handy-dandy little web site Alex found, we could go 8-9 the rest of the season and still have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NBA/Western/Northwest/Thunder.html
Not too shabby!
I’m okay with the sixth seed if that means okc draws Dallas for round 1.
Okay, I think we’re all on the same page about not wanting to tangle with the Nuggets, since they seem to have our number. (They’ve had it all season. They’ve probably sold it to telemarketers by now.) The easiest way to avoid Denver as long as possible is to win enough games to be 4th or stay 5th. Denver is not going to win enough games to ace out the Lakers for the top seed, nor will they lose enough games for anyone else to slip by the Nuggets into the top 3. So going 10-7 or thereabouts would actually be Just Fine, as it would probably leave the Thunder (given Royce’s analysis) in possession of the 5th seed and heading to Salt Lake City for Game 1 of a Jazz-Thunder series. Of course, if we continued to play well against Utah and won the series, that probably leaves us with a ceiling of five-six more games in our season, courtesy of the Los Angeles Lakers. But hey, better to tangle with them than Denver, yeah?
San Antonio is screwed; they better watch out for Memphis.
Me personally I am not at all afraid of Denver. They are just a nut that we haven’t cracked yet, but in a seven game series, I think we can surprise anybody. I think we can and will figure them out.
Sorry, but this statement shows your bad knowledge of basketball. Nuggets could easily swept the Thunder they’re a terrible match-up. Most likely Nuggets in 5 with no sweat.
Just because of one statement that you disagree with you disregard Joe’s entire body of work that displays his vast NBA knowledge? Sorry but this statement reveals your illogical state of mind.
But really, the Thunder could beat Denver it’s just they have a mental block or something. The Thunder have long perimeter defenders which should help against their incredible shooters and our interior players could realistically match up against them. I think that they kick our butts because they are confident, smart veterans and have very crisp offensive sets. The Thunder can’t possibly figure that out?
OT – Shaun Livingston is on a 10 day with the Wizards – he’s starting tonight vs Utah . . .
@Chas
Agreed.
Joe has been an intelligent commenter since I first became obsessed with this site.(18 months or so.) Joe knows basketball, yo!
@Chas
“Thunder could beat the Denver” You’re in denial if you really think they can beat Denver in a series. This is why i make money betting on the NBA and you just make comments on this blog.
Guy even said Spurs better watch out for Memphis when they have a 7 game lead in the loss column, but go head and protect your boy friend.
@Eric4Mayor
Ok, your the expert. You win. I quit arguing with experts on blogs years ago.
@Joe
…classy…
I didn’t mean to insult you, my mistake.
@Eric4Mayor
Are you kidding you said he had no basketball knowledge???? Sorry, couldn’t not say something..
My take, for what it’s worth, is that given the schedule that’s left it will be hard for any team to displace a team in the top 4. Lakers likely maintain first but 2-4 is a crap shoot and so is 5-8. With the quality of the teams in the playoffs I think the home teams have to be favored but any series could be an upset (though injuries have seriously hurt the Blazers potency and age and health don’t seem to be doing the Spurs any favors). Phoenix could surprise but the Thunder are the biggest X- factor.
Regardless of who they play, the Thunder will be underdogs but they could really surprise and pull off the upset. Even though the schedule should keep them from getting home court I think the tough competition will only help them prepare for the playoffs all the more. Even the injury to Harden and getting Weaver some burn or compressing the rotation will pay dividends.
The cool thing is its all gravy from here in, the team wasn’t supposed to make the playoffs, management hasn’t made any last minute moves to help bolster the roster for the playoffs, its all about getting better and getting the most out of whatever series they are involved with so that next year, and for years to come, they can do real damage.
Word of caution, as good as it is all turning out so far the Blazers seemed to be in about the same spot last year (although the Thunder’s development seems even more abrupt) but with injuries this year their whole long term plan seems to have taken a serious downturn this year. I have followed both teams closely and I think that the Thunder is even more promising than the Blazers seemed last year. Can’t wait for the rest of the next game!
… oops got stuck on the last phrase between the ‘rest of the season’ and ‘the next game’ so I guess I spliced them together
This vid is from almost a year ago. (April 9, 2009) You’ve probably already seen it, but go watch it again. Their talk about 3-29 really helps put this entire season in perspective. This year these guys are going to be BUSY in mid- to late-April!
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4055132
I’m with Joe for what it’s worth, I think Denver is vulnerable without Kenyon Martin because they play absolutely no defense now (see the Rockets game). Boston got blown away by the Knicks, do they lose to the Knicks in a playoff series? Silly comparison, but the point is that one bad loss does not mean much.
Anything can happen in the playoffs if the ball bounces the right way a few times and you play well. Denver over Seattle, Knicks over everyone in the lockout year, Warriors over Dallas.. the disparity between Denver and OKC this season isn’t that large. We probably have a better chance in a series against Dallas or Utah, but Denver’s not much tougher than those teams.
@MarcUpNorth
Blazers also have the benefit of Paul Allen’s never ending check book..
I would like a 4 or 5 seed, but long as we make the playoffs its a great season for me. Once you are in anything is possible.
I am gonna be greedy and say I want the 3 seed with Dallas as the two. Can I do that? The nuggs’ loss lstnight makes it more believable. We just have to have three less losses than them the rest of the season. I know this puts us at winning our division but it is possible.
The Nuggs have 8 games left that are atleast semi-losable, (@BOS,@ORL,@Dallas,@OKC,LAL,SA,Memphis,@PHO) and the BOS, ORL, Dallas games are the 2,4,5 games in a 5 games in 7 nights stint.
We have 7 left that would be considered not-entirely-crappy losses, (SA, @LAL, @BOS, @Dallas, @Utah, DEN, @PHO)
Improbable? maybe… It pretty much comes down to us beating denver the night after playing in Utah
@Justin
… and Prichard has done a good job as GM (PA helps make things happen) but I think Presti’s team has done an even better job.
Lots of similarities between the 2 teams, for example the ‘family’ atmosphere etc(while they are still close there it seems to me that the Blazers aren’t as tight as they were perceived to be… playing time etc is certainly an issue with Bayless, Miller, Rudy and some jealousy when Oden was starting to play a bigger role).
I remember at the beginning of last year how apparently Roy and Aldridge stated how much emphasis they were going to put on becoming complete players (playing some D)… much like Durant said this year, but it seems like lip service as far as the Blazer’s duo was concerned but not with KD and co. (and I think that Durant had a worse reputation than Roy as far as being a one-way player), KD seems to have really stuck to his promise to work harder on D!