Daily Thunder.com

@Keith

The best thing about Jefferson is his contract. I posted some details on the previous page. If we only have to give up expirings + picks, then Jefferson is a great fit for our team financially. Getting him gives us two full seasons after this one to evaluate him + Harden, Maynor, & Ibaka. All four of those contracts would need to be extended at the same time. It would be pretty clear by then who is going to work and needs the money and who we should let go.

I guess I'm not as concerned about the passing. As of now, team passing and ball movement aren't fundamental parts of our offense. Jefferson's assist rate is comparable to other players on our team (Durant, Green) and it's also comparable to other good bigs (Bosh, Z-Bo). A good post passer is a luxury I'd be willing to give up for efficient scoring + rebounding. On the bright side, Jefferson's improved his turnovers this year. I see what you're getting at though.

One thing that does worry me about Jefferson is his passing, or lack thereof. Spacing the floor is about stringing out the defense and hitting them where they're weak. From the perimeter, that would work fine with Al. If Durant is getting double, he or Westbrook throw it down to Al who then can beat his man or a help defender one on one (what he's best at). However, if Al has the ball, and they double him, he just takes dumb jumpers instead of passing out. Part of the reason he's falling so out of favor in Minny is because they run the Triangle, which necessitates passing all over, and Al really hurts there.

You don't get talent as good as Jefferson for free w/o flaws.

Yeah. It would be wrong to pass on Jefferson, depending on the price. He's definitely not where he used to be, but he's still the kind of player this team could use. I mean, we're getting by with a less than peak Nenad Krstic. I think a less than peak Al Jefferson would have something to offer this club.

I think Presti would definitely look into the DUI, but I don't think it would be a deciding factor, unless there is some sort of precedent that we're just unaware of. One mistake is not enough to pass on that kind of talent.

Nazr reminds me a lot of Erick Dampier.. playing the best basketball of his career in a contract year..

@dream catcher

Jefferson is one of the few players in the NBA that demands a double team in the post and one of the few players in the NBA that has legit back to the basket skills (those are related, of course).

I don't see us getting Haywood. We can't outbid the Mark Cuban Big Man Scholarship Fund.

The other three guys are utility players. None of them really solve any of our problems. They're no better worse than our utility bigs today imo (Collison/Ibaka). Not saying they're bad. They might be great for the money they're potentially signed for. Just nothing to write home about in terms of noticeably improving our team. Again, imo

Looking through the free agents and these are guys Presti might be interested in.....

Nazr Mohammed - fantastic rebounder
Brendan Haywood - good defender and rebounder/efficient offensively
Ian Mahinmi - Spurs project
Louis Amundson - good rebounder

that was me, and yes people make mistakes, but whenever I watch him he doesn't really impress me that much.

@Anonymous

Oh well, then, I guess the whole discussion about Zydrunas Ilgauskas is out the window since he had a DUI in 2002. I suppose if JJ Reddick is available we won't make a move for our bench shooter, because he had one in 2006. Denver going nuts and wants to trade Carmelo for Jeff Green? Sorry, Denver, Carmelo had a DUI. Juwon Howard was released by Portland and we could sign him for a playoff run? Nope, DUI in 1999.

I understand wanting good character guys but c'mon, people make mistakes. If the TWolves were giving away Al Jefferson for peanuts and we didn't take him because he had one DWI I'd be pissed.

@justin
Thanks for the explanation. That's an interesting stat, I wonder what it tell us about our offense given that the 5 guys above RW, except maybe Baron, all have significantly higher AST Ratios.

@Anonymous
This was my post. :-)

@Josh

It's an estimate of teammate field goals a player assists when he's on the court. So when Russ is on the court, about 37.8% of our made baskets are assisted by him. It's a decent measurement that accounts for pace better than assists per game..

@justin
What is the AST% stat that you are referring to? Is it the % of the teams assists that Westbrook accounts for?

Trade for Tim Duncan, if Spurs decide to rebuilding. Unlikely though.

@justin, @Keith

Sorry, took too long posting that up there to see your responses.

Keith, I see what you mean by that 5 game difference. But I was more thinking of Lee+Harden+Ibaka > Bosh. Especially given that we don't know yet what Harden and Ibaka will be eventually. That combo could end up putting us into that 60 win category. Or better yet, that combo might actually be a better 7 game series team.

Justin, I knew a Lee+Green pairing would cause frontcourt size issues. We know what it's like to see Green pushed around, and we'd have to deal with it being twice as bad with Lee in as well. But it's worth a thought. I don't know if it's worth a try though. Seems like several teams have tried that small lineup, but never won championships with it.

Agreed on Jefferson, Mark. The fact that he only has three years remaining is what makes him attractive.

Sorry if my cap work/numbers are off. Did my best. I only know enough to be dangerous with half-baked theories.

justin :If Minnesota is willing to trade Al Jefferson for nothing do you take a look at him? Him and Biedrins are two guys that seem to have worn out their welcome and require a change in scenery. Not sure Presti is the type to take chances like that though.

You have to look at Jefferson. It works out so well for us on a number of levels. But let me preface all this by saying it won't happen. I get the sense that Kahn manages his affairs via media feedback. He floats a rumor out there, waits to see how it's received by the press and goes from there. I'm not sure he has a brain of his own. I feel sorry for Minnesota fans.

Anyway, back to Jefferson.

Assume our "core" going forward is Durant/Westbrook/Jefferson, Durant gets a max contract and Westbrook gets a Rondo deal of 9/10/... Our "core" cost would be:

2010-11: $23.1M
2011-12: $32.5M
2012-13: $38.8M

Next, assume Green is slightly overpaid with a 8/9/... contract (overpaid imo anyway). This sets our "secondary" group as Green, Harden, Sefalosha, Maynor, Ibaka. Their cost would be:

2010-11: $14.3M
2011-12: $18.7M
2012-13: $22.9M

Total cost of:

2010-11: $37.4M
2011-12: $51.2M
2012-13: $61.7M

After 2012-13, Jefferson, Harden, Maynor and Ibaka would all need to be on new contracts. But surely after 2 seasons with that group (2010-11 and 2011-12... we'd be working on extensions prior to 2012-13) we would know who's going to work and need larger salaries and who isn't, right? In 2013-14, we would be committed to ~$40.3M between Durant, Westbrook, Green and Sefalosha. There are worse places to be.

I would assume we would fill up the rest of our roster with picks, minimum contracts and maybe 1-2 reasonable MLE or lower type deals. Seems to work.

The timing of Jefferson coming off the books at the same time as our current rookies getting new contracts is pretty nice. Nevermind what he brings to the court.

Also, lets look at Lee vs Krstic through Dean Olver's eyes.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tin...

Shooting (eFG% - TS%)
Krstic - .49 - .53
Lee - .56 - .60

Ball Handling (TOV% - AST%)
Krstic - 11.5 - 6.6
Lee - 13.0 - 10.4

Off. Rebounding (ORB% - TRB%)
Krstic - 8.3 - 12.5
Lee - 10.6 - 18.2

FT Rate (FT% - FTA per 36)
Krstic - .72 - 3.7
Lee - .77 - 3.8

So while Lee may be a worse defender due to a lack of size, he makes up for it with his scoring efficiency and his rebounding. Lee is a better passer. His turnover % is higher than I expected, even given his usage.

This of course, would pair Lee with Green. We would be undersized at two positions in the frontcourt. We would absolutely have to keep our defensive philosophy the way it is now, with tons of double teaming and help rotations. We would have to beat teams with quickness on help D and on close-outs. And honestly, it may not work. But you never know. Playing small ball and making the leagues bigs chase us around for 48 might actually work. We would have all the quicks we needed to constantly front their bigs, and bigs HATE it when you front them. Ibaka and Nick off the bench is just a relentless push of athleticism and hustle.

I dunno if acquiring Lee with the thought of playing him extended minutes at center is wise. I'm a huge David Lee fan (let's not also forget he's one of the best passing bigs in the league..) but playing him at center, especially in the west, is setting him up to fail. He's about the same size as Collison and a bit more athletic, but he has no defensive moxy. Sure, he might be able to learn the system and play good team defense.. I just dunno how effective he'd be in our starting lineup next to Jeff Green and Kevin Durant. Say what you want about Nenad, he's big. And Collison just knows how to play defense in all forms..

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Lee was doing what he does now, with fewer PPG, before D'Antoni got there. I don't think there should be any doubt he would be an incredible rebounder and smart scorer on another team. That said, the difference between impact between high tier players is like the difference in wins between good teams. 60 wins is only 5 more than 55 wins, but 60 wins is elite, something incredibly difficult that shows so much more than 55. Bosh is 60 wins, Lee is 55. The difference seems small in the numbers, but is huge for the team.

i personally want david lee, yes he is undersized at center, but no more so then collison is, and against bigger teams we just play him more at PF and use krstic/mullens/ibaka at center, green could use a few games with low minutes to help him stay rested.

@justin
yeah i agree that a center/PF would be better.

@Williamfh
here are ones we might target at PF/C, not saying my opinion just a list

david lee, jermaine oneal,boozer, Louis Amundson, marcus camby, amir johnson as an unrestricted fA
scola, landry as RFA

These types of topics are just a little too hypothetical for my taste, but just to throw my two cents in for good measure I wanna go back to something Justin suggested. Lee at 5/65 or Bosh at 6/120. I'm going with Lee 10 times out of 10 in that scenario. I know that Bosh > Lee, and I know all of the arguments against Lee (system, size, position). BUT, Lee's efficiency and rebounding will translate to another team. Maybe not at the rate, but his talent is not a fluke, and his technique is not a fluke. I think we tend to over-emphasize the system he plays in and give it too much credit for his production.

At first, I was thinking 13 mill is too much for Lee, but when you put it that way (Lee at 5/65 or Bosh at 6/120), it shocked me how good a value that could turn out to be.

If you think of the move in terms of adding efficient post scoring, instead of adding a bruising/dominating center, then Lee gives you exactly what you want. Pau is not a bruiser, but he's skilled and will win championships when you surround him with complimentary players. Lee could be another Pau type, in terms of skill and efficiency vs. bulk and power.

And at that price, you could more easily afford to keep an Ibaka or a Harden, where you might have to let them go if you were paying Bosh that kind of money. Lee+Harden+Ibaka > Bosh.

I guess Boozer is up there with Lee as PnR player but Lee has a better jumpshot..

@Keith
And they got great production from Stephen Jackson at a time nobody was sure that was possible, made Bruce Bowen a household name, etc. Drafting number 25-30 on draft day every year is going to mean lots of hits and misses, so I'm not sure how relevant their late 1st-round draft performance is anyway. Udrih is one of the few guys I can think of that the Spurs worked with and tried to turn into a good player who then found himself playing much better with another team.

Lee is the best PnR big man in the league and can also do the PnP. He'd make our offense 10,000x better but I wonder about his defense at the center position. Krstic tries, at least, and he's a smart dude. I love Lee but would feel much more comfortable with him at PF.

@Williamfh
David Lee would solve a lot of those easy shot/rebounding problems we have. His defense is bad, but perhaps Brooks and the team can get him to work harder on that end. Regardless, Krstic's defense isn't exactly great to begin with, so the downgrade there would be more than made up by the offense and rebounding.

Al Jefferson is an idea, though he'll need to start doing better for Presti to make any serious offer.

@spike
Just something to keep in mind, the Spurs also drafted Felipe Lopez, Leon Smith, Leandro Barbosa (whom they sold on draft day), and Beno Udrih. The one decent player from that group they sold. Everyone likes to remember the Spurs as only drafting Duncan (no brainer), Parker, and Ginobli, but they've made as many mistakes as good decisions. That's how the draft works. It's a crapshoot. No team wins big on every pick.

@spike

I agree. While Jeff Green has been a disappointment, both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have made some pretty significant changes to their games from year to year that have helped them be more productive. Even Green has become kind of a defensive pest, which makes him a lot more useful than the numbers would indicate. Presti does have a decent track record of acquiring players who seem to work hard and desire to improve their performance / are coachable.

Credit for this has to go to the coaching staff as well..

@f5alcon

Maybe, but in the end, the big man who can score closer to the basket and either draw fouls or convert is the ideal fit because most of them also solve some of our other problems (DREB).

Even someone of Nene's caliber would suffice for this offense..

@Justtin @f5alcon if not boss .who is a very good player who will good for OKC in this summer?? in Center?? and other position we need?

@justin
Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm firmly in the camp that we need a better inside presence in order to make a serious run. I'm just responding to those who say that Durant's progress is out of the norm and should not be expected to be duplicated even to a partial degree with the other players. In my opinion, what the Thunder are doing is so unprecedented that it's impossible to predict what will happen, but it's reasonable to think all the young players make significant progress.

Technically, Jordan's teams never had an inside threat, but they had Jordan and Pippen, so probably not that relevant, unless we can add one of the best 2-guards in history to complement KD.

@justin
harden could become the scoring threat, he at least has the best chance on the current roster

@spike

At some point the team is going to need efficient offense and some kind of interior defensive threat, as Keith stated, to cover up for the perimeter breakdowns that just happen in the no hand check era. Ibaka might be that kind of defensive presence at his peak, but neither him, Green, or anyone has shown the ability to score effectively. All the championship teams have go-to guys to get easy buckets when they need them.. we rely on Durant, who is a great scorer, but isn't someone who's going to get easy shots at the end of games.

So even in the best case scenario given the skill set of our young players, I don't think we have that offensive threat on the roster.

@Williamfh
chandler isnt worth 5 dollars much less 7 million his career is over. not to mention chandler isnt a FA, no way he is opting out.

even though we are 8-14 against the top teams in the west, we could have had an win against the lakers,mavs,spurs and suns if a few shots fell differently. then we are 12-10 against the top teams.

The counterpoint to that is that work ethic and character issues are a key reason players fail to reach their potential. One reason I have more confidence than the "realists" on this site is because Presi is so careful only to add character guys with very good work ethics. Look at a guy like Ibaka and the ceiling is Shawn Kemp. Kemp may have been more talented (was more talented) but also had a host of character issues that limited his output and caused him to fall far short of his potential.

I haven't seen the test case that shows players in the OKC system won't reach their potential.

Look at San Antonio. Is it coincidence that the players they draft all wind up reaching or exceeding their potential? Probably not. Richard Jefferson is the only example I can think of where they add a player and it just doesn't work out.

The system both for picking players and developing players has to be taken into account and I don't understand why it's so hard to believe that OKC may have a superior system. The team is 3rd in the league in defense. Westbrook and Durant are two of the most improved players in the entire league over the past year. Maybe what they're doing from a system standpoint means the young guys continue to get better more than other young players do.

if Sam presti can sign Tyson Chandler in cheap like a 7 million in this free agent ..it would be great to get him support with serge Ibaka and next summer used to Nenard and Nick for first round pick in lottery position it would be great....................this summer just get very good center and sharp shooter of 3pt who can help KD when some match he is poor perform..it seem perfect for OKC

I think the point is that unless you make a stupid decision and acquire a player that isn't worth his $$$ or waste draft picks it's hard to go wrong. Like Keith said, if we acquire a big man in the summer and Ibaka goes bananas, that's a pretty good 'problem' to have.

@Keith
i think it is safe to assume RW will be a star he already pretty much is.

@kev
What we have should get us in the playoffs consistently, that I believe. What we have does not make us a championship contender. It might, in time, if guys like Ibaka and Green just explode in production. But as we are right now, we can't know that will happen, and we can't be champions without it.

@Williamfh
I'd love to give everyone all the time in the world, but the fact is we won't have any more cap space after next year. It's either give Green and Ibaka forever (no longer have the space to get free agents or one-sided trades) or get something proven right now. It's not like they can't still develop with someone else there. If they become great, we can just trade one of them or our pickup for something else very useful. It's never a bad thing to have extra talent (unless you sit on it and destroy it - a la Minnesota).

Keith :@IsaacBecause even on pace for 50 wins now, we are constantly getting beat in the frontcourt, giving up tons of offensive boards, and relying far too much on inefficient jump shots. I don’t want to burst any bubbles, but we are 8-14 against Western playoff hopefuls. What we are doing is great, but we have significant deficiencies. I mentioned it before, but we are a team that is built for the regular season, not the playoffs. We have no reliable big men to get easy buckets against tighter defenses. We have no one to erase small mistakes defensively that will be magnified in the playoffs.
We are good, but to say we are destined to grow up into a championship team is crazy. The baby Bulls thought they were going to be great one day, they imploded and are starting over already.

another very good post . . .

still - OKC possesses two things that that Bulls team didn't - a bonafide top 5 NBA player AND and identity (a stalwart defense) . . .

those two things alone almost guarantee winning seasons year after year . . . obviously we need (at least one) anoher scorer, but there's no reason to believe that we can't win at least 45-50 every season assuming we keep most of our key players . . .

Keith :@justinI’ll admit, I remembered it from one of your posts. It stuck out, because it so perfectly summed up the way a lot of people assume something that is really only around now because they’ve been spoiled. It bears repeating now and again.
Durant makes us think everyone is going to be a star someday, when the fact is, he may be the only star we ever have. Everyone wants to believe the best case scenario as set in stone, without even mentioning the worst case scenario as a possibility.

best post I've read in a long time . . .

Take chris boss in OKC this summer who know boss will match up with us 100% ??.if he not .itis risky . ..what SAM presti did a great job for us in couple year?? we can't extend our young talent like harden and serge and mullen and maynor

this year OKC is huge improve from bottom 5 of NBA to be on top10 in NBA right now..it very good for OKC now.............in my opinion wait serge and Green grow with us just 1 year.just 1year!!! i can tell if serge get30minute plus he can take double double for us at Center and next free agency open again...we will have first round pick of next year.not necessary for us we have enough young talent plus we can used to 11-12million salarie cap of Nenard and Nick in free agent to get very good center like Andris Biedrins, Andrew Bogut, Chris Kaman , Marcin Gortat to share with Serge in center..this way is better take boss this year.....wait SERGE just 1 year SERGE!!!! is amonster of shot blocker and rebounder!!!take boss you will loose uncle jeff 90% and limit for our young talent

@justin
I'll admit, I remembered it from one of your posts. It stuck out, because it so perfectly summed up the way a lot of people assume something that is really only around now because they've been spoiled. It bears repeating now and again.

Durant makes us think everyone is going to be a star someday, when the fact is, he may be the only star we ever have. Everyone wants to believe the best case scenario as set in stone, without even mentioning the worst case scenario as a possibility.

@justin

i agree, we need to do something this summer, either a center, or Pf with green going to the bench. i dont even mind keeping krstic as long as he doesnt start next year. but it does depend on team goals, like my dad all he wants is to make the playoffs he doesnt care about championships or anything, so he would rather see us do nothing and keep the players he likes

@justin
If Al or Andris are offered for nothing more than expirings and/or picks, I think we'd take it, though Presti would probably do a whole lot of scouting and interviews before ok-ing it. Al might have a long term nagging injury like Chandler. Both will need to be checked out as good guys off the court too. For nothing, they'd be hard to pass, and I think Presti would make the right choice.

@Keith

"People tend to forget that improvement isn’t linear."

That's my line! :)

I think we're ahead of the curve with Kevin Durant.. it makes it much easier to build a successful team.