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Dr. Anxiety or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the playoff race

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Take five minutes and go back through the archives. I’ve probably said 50 or so times following a big win that THIS one convinced me this Thunder team was actually good. THIS is the statement game that tells the world the Oklahoma City Thunder have arrived. Typically that was following a bad loss that made me want to cry into a pillow or after a big win against a contender.

But I’m not sure I totally believe it. Why? Mainly because of games like yesterday’s laugher in Indianapolis.

I think the main reason for this is that we’re all a little nervous, a little on edge. Or at least I am. There are 14 games left in the season and OKC holds a six-game lead of the Houston Rockets, the team nearest to it that’s sitting outside the top eight in the West. Yes, at this point playoff seeding and home court advantage is what’s on all our minds. But yet, in the dark recesses of our fandom, there’s the scary thought we try to avoid but all think about constantly: Could this team fall on its face and miss the postseason?

If you ask me the answer is no. Seriously, no. Well, I’m pretty sure… no. I suppose if they lost three straight it might get tight… but no. Well… I guess they could go 5-9, Houston could get hot and blow it. I will now put on a black jumpsuit and lie down on a busy street at night.

But that’s kind of sort of the thought process I live with every day. Did you know I stare at the Western Conference standings for problem 10 minutes a day? It’s true. One, because I can’t stop looking at that sexy 42-26 record. But two because I live in fear thinking someone behind the Thunder will catch them. But the reality is, if OKC went 5-9 to finish the season – a horrible finish considering how well they’ve played this year – Houston would need to go 11-3 to catch them. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely? No, not really at all.

So why do we fret? There really shouldn’t be anything to worry about. Yes, the upcoming schedule is tough. Yes, this team is inexperienced and can drop games like in Indiana. But they’ve proven time and again that they’re a good team. I think it’s because the Thunder fan’s psyche is a fragile one and that’s largely because we don’t know how to completely understand this incredible turnaround. I’ve been trying to sum this mindset up the last few weeks, but honestly I’m not a good enough writer to really get it nailed down. But hang with me.

This all seems a little surreal, doesn’t it? I mean, 3-29 to now sitting sixth in the Western Conference? Seriously? For some reason, it all kind of feels like a sham. It feels like an abberation. Some weird coicidence that’s gotten the team lucky. It just feels too good to be true. And as a result, I think trying to overcome this state of mind makes us all a tad fickle and a lot anxious.

It’s hard to really completely comprehend and understand this season. We try to thumb it down by talking about expectations and how far they’ve been exceeded with 14 games to play. But yet, I don’t think I even fully get it. How can a team that started 3-29 last year and won only 23 games, turn around and compete for not just the playoffs, but home court advantage in it the very next year with essentially the same core group of players? It honestly just doesn’t make sense. So as a result, I end up waiting for a crash. Some dose of reality that wakes us all up and says, “Nope, just kidding. You’re not really that good. But the first five months were fun, right?” It seems like it has to happen. Right?

It’s this underwriting fear of a collapse that I think is why we live and die with each game. A big win in Toronto? Ah no sweat, this team is good stuff. An ugly loss in Indiana? AHHHH, IS IT ALL FALLING APART? TRADE EVERYONE!!! I’m being honest here, but before each game I wonder if the Thunder really has a shot to win. Even against the worst teams. I think it’s because there’s still a little scar tissue left over from last season so the taste of constant defeat lingers, but if OKC were playing Putnam City West High School, I think I’d stop for a second and wonder if this really was a winnable game. I realize that’s pathetic. But then they beat Orlando, they beat Phoenix, they beat Dallas and it all makes sense. You watch the game and nothing is surprising. Kevin Durant is really, really good, Russell Westbrook is a star waiting to explode, Jeff Green is a glue guy that makes big plays, the bench is solid, Scott Brooks is smart and they all play excellent defense. Yet still, it all feels surprising for some reason.

So as a result, I end up waiting for a crash. Some dose of reality that wakes us all up and says, "Nope, just kidding. You're not really that good. But the first five months were fun, right?" It seems like it has to happen. Right?

I think another reason for all of this might be because a lot of us have really never been through this before, myself included. Both years the Hornets were in OKC, they competed until mid-March before folding completely, most notably their last season here when they lost 10 of 15 in March, which included a six-game losing skid. So combine that, with the incredible turnaround, with the scars from last season’s failure, with the newness of this race, with the typical anxiety ANY fans has around this time, and maybe you can understand where I’m coming from.

Marc Stein brought some reason to my brain today in his power rankings: “OKC has set the bar so high that you didn’t know how to react when it finally threw in a stinker in Indy. It was just the fifth L in 23 games for a team whose leading rebounder — Durant — averages a whopping 7.5 rpg.” That’s right. OKC is 18-5 over the last month and a half. Think about that. That’s pretty good. Is it luck? Is it an abberation? It’s tough to fake 18 wins in the Western conference over the course of a season, much less five weeks.

Maybe I’m alone in all this. But when you stare down a difficult schedule to finish the year, you worry a little. I think it’s hard not to and completely natural for you to. It’s what makes us fans. Sure, we want the four-seed and home court advantage. Sure, I’d love a favorable matchup that gives OKC a chance to get out of the first round. But you know what, I’d be pretty stinking thrilled with just a spot in the playoffs too. I don’t think it’s greedy to have big expectations for the next month, but I think it’s silly to be disppointed with a postseason birth, even if it’s the black spot of eighth to play the Lakers. I think I’d take it with a big grin on my face.

This doesn’t mean I’m not going to worry about these last couple weeks. Until that magic number clicks to zero, I’m going to fear the worst. I grew up a Chicago Cubs fan, so I’m probably a little more scarred than most. Not to say I don’t believe in this team, because I do. I’m just, let’s say, cautiously optimistic at this point. But this couldn’t be more fun right now. Would I rather be fearing a collapse that could cost my team the playoffs, or wondering if they’re winning to much and costing themselves ping-pong balls?

I think I can confidently say, I’ll take the former.

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Great article. My feelings exactly.

As a fan of a different team, it's easy to be objective about a team like your Thunder, and as such, I now say "The Thunder are most certainly making the playoffs. The Rockets are NOT catching them, or anybody, for that matter." Case closed.

stanley kubrick reference FTW.

4razr :
Don’t forget to sit back and enjoy the ride. The first time only happens once

Thats what she said. :)

Of the top-4 teams in the west, how would you rank them in terms of which you would like the Thunder to match up with?
I'd have to go
1. Utah (we have clearly played well against them so far)
2. Dallas (we've had good success against them, and they have a history of folding in the postseason)
3. LA (As tough of a matchup as this could be, we've played them pretty well and it would certainly be an entertaining learning experience for the team.
4. Denver (we just don't match up well, although poor big-man health could tip that in our favor a bit.)

Don't forget to sit back and enjoy the ride. The first time only happens once ;-)

@Royce Young
" I end up waiting for a crash. Some dose of reality that wakes us all up and says, “Nope, just kidding. You’re not really that good. But the first five months were fun, right?” It seems like it has to happen. Right?"

Right, Royce. It's going to happen, whether it happens now, or in the first round, or later if there's some miracle. The thing to remember is this is the first time for these guys, almost every one of them. The season is a freaking marathon. And it's easy to collapse at the end of a marathon. The pressure is amped up. Every team is gunning. This stretch right now is the most intense they have ever played, like being in the playoffs for the first time. Nothing comes easy. And we know, sooner or later, it will end in failure. Sooner or later, they will get exposed, because they really aren't that good--not yet.

But what an unexpected pleasure as fans of this team that we get to be disappointed by a failed run at the playoffs, or a first-round exit against the Lakers, or a second-round exit against the Lakers. The future's so bright, you gotta wear shades! (sorry, I couldn't resist)

I give the Thunder a better shot against Utah than Dallas.

As of today, according to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NBA.html, the Western Conference playoffs will most likely result in this situation:

(The percentage listed is the team's best chance)

1. Lakers (98%)
2. Nuggets (47%)
3. Jazz (32%)
4. Mavs (40%)
5. Suns (35%)
6. Thunder (27%)
7. no one
8. Spurs (35%) and TrailBlazers (39%)

So that 7th spot is still undecided, leaning towards the TrailBlazers who have a 33 to 29 percent chance to take 7th (both percentages being the second highest percent per team).

So, if their predictive model is correct, we may fall to 6th and face the Jazz. If we finish strong and get to 5th, we'll most likely face the mavs (who's chances of any seed other than 4 is a tremendous drop-off relatively speaking).

So maybe a strong finish is more of a Pyrrhic victory. Go 6th seed?

If I sound cold and emotionless about this season, it's because of the way I think. I've got the mind of a GM. I'm always looking ahead at the big picture, which is as everyone here should know, building a team that can win championships for ten to fifteen years in to the future. I don't give a damn about this year. So long as they make the playoffs and win one game in the playoffs, I'll count this season as a success and one small step towards dynasty, but that is it.

Heck, I consider this upcoming offseason to be way more important than this regular season. Next offseason will decide the course of the franchise in my opinion. Will we get loaded down with a bad contract, sign or trade for someone who pushes us to championship level, or continue on the conservative road of building through the draft and making smart trades? (I'm inclined to say that we continue on the conservative road.)

Guys, we're still closer to the 2 seed than missing the playoffs. Relax.

@Vega
Exactly. I remember back in late December, we all were going to be thrilled with the notion of sneaking into the playoffs as the eight seed just to get swept by LA.

Whatever happens, MAJOR strides were made this year.

I think this fanbase has become a bit spoiled. Remember last season? Yeah, that exact same team is sixth in the West. There should be singing and dancing that the Thunder are even in playoff contention. So, do I think it is a bit greedy to want the fourth seed and home court advantage? Yes. Be happy with the playoffs. Expect the fourth seed and home court advantage next year at the earliest, maybe even the year after that.

Bad losses happen. No need to panic about the Indy game.

i am stressing more after the loss to indy, but it is irrational, even if we end up stinking it up bad, somebody else will too, the spurs have a tough schedule. Houston still plays lakers, spurs, celtics, jazz and suns. Us, bulls, bobcats, grizz, hornets are not push overs either. With 6 games up in the loss column and 7 up on memphis, they have to win that many more games then us.

memphis has 12 games left best possible record is 49-33, so 7 wins(including over them) or 8 wins total eliminates them from passing us, even if they win all their remaining games. They have 7 of remaining 12 against playoff teams.

houston has 14 games left, we have to win 9 to eliminate them, best possible record is 50-32. 8 games against playoff teams for them. even if houston splits those and wins all the games against non playoff teams they are 10-4(46-36) so 5 wins by us should hit the 47 games needed. But they could just as easily go 5-9 and miss even if we win 0 games.

I am just ready for the playoffs.. Imo the NBA season is about 10-20 games too long.. It has been pretty well established what the hierarchy is in the NBA by now.. The only things that are likely to change anything now are injuries (Bynum) and people coming back from injury (CP3)..

I'm not anxious at all because I have realistic expectations. I'm expecting one or two wins and out in the first round. Heck, I've already started to look ahead to the offseason.

I think there's already been a small dose of reality regarding our defense, which has not been as impressive as it was pre-All Star break. Our tendency to allow so many shots at the rim is catching up with us, and teams are shooting a higher percentage.

Now you dunnit! An anti-anti-jinx Royce?! You might as well stab needles in to your Kevin Durant VooDoo Doll

Tonight is the key to this 4 game homestand. Lay a stinker and it could be a loooong week. Win and we could be looking at the confidence to grab a 3-1. I think anyone who says 4-0 is gonna happen is kidding themselves.

@Lindsey
I think was more of an anti-jinx.

Why you trying to jinx us, man? Damn ...

I was looking at the standings -- and then the Rockets' schedule -- right before I clicked over here. And, I agree with you wholeheartedly. I don't entirely trust this team either. I think for those of us who have been fans since the move we've drilled into our heads "yeah we're 3-29, or 13-40, or 23-59, but wait for 2012, these guys are going to be good" and we're not entirely sure how it happened so quickly.

Fantastic title by the way. Referencing one of the greatest comedies -- heck, greatest movies -- of all time always earns some points.

high anxiety... yep, definitely feeling it

this four game home stand will tell us a lot about what to expect from here on out

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