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Wednesday Bolts – 2.10.10

Hollinger after last night’s game: “Forget about their youth, their inexperience, and the difficulty of the Western Conference. Forget all that, and just know this: The Thunder are going to the playoffs. Tuesday’s 89-77 win over the Blazers showed a good example why, as Oklahoma City demonstrated how its defense and newfound depth could carry it on a night when the starters couldn’t deliver.” Also, Hollinger’s playoff odds have OKC as the four seed. Don’t laugh. Right now, the Thunder’s just two and half out of the three seed.

Team USA will hold a teleconference at noon central time to announceme the members of the 2010-12 USA National Team. But there is already a release out and it has both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant on the 27-man roster. Cool.

Vote for Kevin Durant in some All-Star thing. I don’t quite understand it, but KD is leading. I think some of that has to do with him being paired with Rihanna though.

Darnell Mayberry with a great point: ”Then Durant took over. He buried one jumper, then another, then a 3 from the right wing. All of them came over Blazers wing Nicolas Batum, who is supposed to be a lock-down defender. So the next time you think Durant is not clutch because he hasn’t hit buzzer-beaters, go back and review how he hit big shot after big shot in this game. And the Golden State game three nights earlier. And the Pacers game in mid-January … Here’s a game that serves as a classic example of how stats never can tell the whole story. The one that jumps out most is Durant’s one assist. Had his teammates finished more often he would have been credited for six or seven. Durant did a fantastic job of playing the role of playmaker in the first half.” I swear he had more than one assist. He had to.

Interesting thing here: Two of the new Tulsa Shock’s best players aren’t coming with the team: ”Coach and general manager Nolan Richardson says Nolan has indicated she intends to skip the upcoming season to rest instead of relocating with the team. Her agent says she’s not under contract and is “considering all alternatives.” Smith, a six-time All-Star, has already said she doesn’t plan to play in Tulsa and is listed as a free agent by the league. The season begins in May.”

Mike Baldwin wonders if OKC can win 50: ”Having already posted 30 wins, if the Thunder takes advantage of a softer schedule the next five weeks they could climb to around 18 games over .500, with a month to play, needing only to play .500 ball during a 12-game, season-ending gauntlet to reach half a hundred. I’ll stick with my prediction from a few weeks ago — a 47-35 finish and No. 6 or 7 seed. But don’t rule out 50 wins. It will be difficult. But not impossible.”

KD up to three in the Award Watch MVP: “After the Kobe-less Lakers beat the Spurs, I thought about moving KD ahead of Kobe and watching my inbox get flooded from Lakers Nation. He’ll have to settle for No. 3.”

Shoals looks at the KD leaving thing: ”It’s simple: Durant has absolutely no reason to leave. The team is boss. The front office lives in the future. He’ll get adequate pay regardless. And while this isn’t a knock on LeBron, Durant lives for basketball and basketball alone. The question has never been “won’t KD want to go somewhere bigger” but “will OKC be able to give Durant the situation he needs to stick around?” It’s almost Tim Duncan-esque. Which, given Sam Presti’s Spurs pedigree and Durant’s laser-like focus on the game, should come as no surprise. And yet it’s still startling that we spend half our lives prattling about any and all LBJ possibilities, when Durant’s future is a non-topic simply because he knows what he wants and has what he needs.”

Ben Golliver of Blazer’s Edge to make you happy: “So imagine my surprise when Durant saunters past Dwight Jaynes and me. We are, as is custom, watching his team warm up intently but without intruding. Out of the blue, Durant offers a “How y’all doin’ tonight?” as polite and genuine as can be. It goes without saying that it takes a lot to impress Dwight , who has been to more than 1,000 NBA games in person. I would venture to say that even Dwight was impressed by this unusual and unsolicited politeness from one of the league’s best. I certainly was. The determination, the personality, the likability, the effortless scoring, the developing leadership. He is the real freaking deal.”

Portland Roundball Society: ”First, the Blazers lost to the hated Lakers at the Rose Garden for the first time in ten games, then they got straight smoked by Kevin Durant, the one they passed over as their guy, Greg Oden, again watched from the couch, a cane no doubt nearby. Take away even the naked photos and this still stings. People say they moved on. But they haven’t. Portland fans wouldn’t boo Durant if everything in the Rose Garden was fine. And when the Blazers brass say that, had they the chance to do it all again, they’d draft the same, well, that’s nothing but a political trick.”

Art Garcia on Kevin Ollie: ”Ollie understands the business and the future in Oklahoma City. Westbrook looks to be on an All-Star path — he’s on the sophomore team for Friday’s Rookie Challenge — and Maynor isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Ollie could get traded later this month, latch on with another squad next season or simply hang ‘em up. The basketball vagabond established a home base in Connecticut four years ago with his wife and two kids to give his family permanence. Though he could go into coaching, he also owns a business conferencing company and may pursue other interests outside the game. Whatever comes next, Ollie will be ready. He always is.”

Durant with Dennis Scott talks a little about “Durantula”.

Happy birthday to my most excellent mother-in-law. And also, while we’re on personal matters, congrats to my little brother who was named a National Merit Finalist yesterday. He’s the smart one. I didunt geht the brayns in the famulie.

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@KingGondo

@Royce Young

Thanks to both of you

Pistons did win a title with a 16 spot bias toward defense though.

Orlando got to the finals last season with a 10 spot defensive bias.

So there isn't a hard rule but balanced strength is usually more successful.

I should have said usually teams this biased (Phoenix 28 spots, OKC 18 spots), don't make the playoffs.

The biggest biases last payoff was 12 spots with Portland and Dallas. Portland 12 spots better on offense than their defense. They were one and out. Dallas had the same bias, made the second round but was a pretty easy out then.

The teams most biased toward offensive strength compared to defense are Phoenix and Toronto. The teams most biased toward defensive strength compared to offense are Charlotte, Chicago and OKC. Being this biased one way or another is usually not that good a thing in the playoffs.

@K
Forgot about that. So does that mean in the scenario that the WC finishes:

1. Lakers
2. Nuggets
3. Utah
4. OKC
5. Phoenix
6. Dallas

OKC would face Dallas in the first round with OKC getting homecourt advantage?

Actually, unless we pass the Jazz or the Nuggets, the top seed we could garner would be the #5.

Nonetheless, if our record was better than the Southwest Division champs (Spurs or Mavs) we could have homecourt in the first round.

@Sammy
yeah i agree, really if we can get the 4 seed its probably best.

@f5alcon
I'd consider 2 wins against the Lakers a successful series. Anyone else and I'm gunning to take the series. No one else in this conference scares me so much that I don't have confidence that OKC could pull an upset.

lakers are the only team i dont think we can beat in a 7 game series, mostly because the nba wouldnt let that happen. Denver would be tough also. nobody else really scares me, id even say i would give good odds to beat the spurs or suns in a series.

I'm trying to figure which teams scare me in the playoffs. Lakers Dallas... Denver

@crick
I'd imagine the big jump has as much or more to do with the recent play of Houston, Memphis, and NO as it does with OKC's. What get's me excited is he has OKC projected 4th taking on the 5th seeded Suns. Wow, that would be awesome.

Ugh. Apparently Miami is making a hard push for Amare, basically making everyone available less Wade. Talk is of some combination of Dorell Wright, Q Rich, Beasley, and J O'Neal. Obviously, all four would mean the Suns would be sending more salary back to the Heat.

Boo hiss. Beasley would be a beast in Phoenix. Can't imagine a package like that would make the Suns any worse this year.

has anyone mentioned that Hollingers Playoff Odds now have us at 95.1%?

:)

The
always interesting Mike Prada has posted this weeks

SBNation Power Rankings

OKC at #10

KingGondo :

Omar :
If we win 50 games, KD has to win the MVP right?

As someone said earlier, I think the MVP is LeBron’s to lose. If we hit 50 wins and KD wins the scoring title (and it would also be helpful if he surpasses MJ’s 40-game 25ppg streak), there might be a discussion. Hitting a few game-winning shots would be good too, but I’d rather win by 10 points and avoid those situations in the first place.

I think that this is like last years "All-Star Discussion" of KD. A lot thought that he should play in it but he hadn't quite made it. Next year he will start off in the conversation.

One thing to note, if he does win it (this year, next year or beyond) he will be only the eighth player since the merge of the ABA to have won both the ROY and MVP. Here's the list (Note: the dates are for ROY):

LeBron James 2004 1 time
Tim Duncan 1998 2 times
Allen Iverson 1997 1 time
Shaquille O'Neal 1993 1 time
David Robinson 1990 1 time
Michael Jordan 1985 5 times
Larry Bird 1980 3 times

Nice company!

and actually if they pick a player to replace kobe i would actually love to see monta ellis but he tweaked his ankle...

russell westbrook anyone ;)

ya i think he would start... i mean as a fan of the game of basketball i dont want to see him or any other players get hurt in this nonsense game...with that being said however... its gonna be a pretty awesome weekend for basketball for darn sure

@dizzydai
r u saying starting for the all-star game... well KD is young and no serious injuries to date so i expect him to play maybe 18 mins and win all-star mvp haha

I'm not saying KD at the 2, but maybe Melo.

f5alcon :@Jeff Allenyeah a few days ago, its kaman, now its possible kobe misses also.
thabo is possibly 1st team all defense. Durant could make all nba 1st team, melo has missed a lot of time, so that will hurt him, its really dirk and duncan that could take the other forward spot. If durant is 1st or 2nd in scoring I think he makes the all nba 1st team.

If Kobe misses what are the chances of Durant starting?

@Jeff Allen
yeah a few days ago, its kaman, now its possible kobe misses also.

thabo is possibly 1st team all defense. Durant could make all nba 1st team, melo has missed a lot of time, so that will hurt him, its really dirk and duncan that could take the other forward spot. If durant is 1st or 2nd in scoring I think he makes the all nba 1st team.

It's possible.. all the games Melo's missed. I mean we're only a game behind Dallas right now so it's not like Dirk's had tremendously more team success than KD this year..

@justin
Interesting. Wow, that really opens up the field. So we have LeBron, Durant, Duncan, Bosh, Melo, and Dirk in some order. LeBron/Durant Melo/Dirk Bosh/Duncan???

Anyone know if they found Brandon Roy's replacement for the all-star game yet??

Jason Kidd and Gary Payton made first team together..

All NBA is G G F F C doesn't matter if you're SF or PF. Dirk and Duncan were first team together a bunch of times.. TMAC was put in as a forward for a first team one year. Pippen and Glen Rice made at least one second team together, etc. etc.

ya i mean i could see this as far as end of season indivudual awards...
durant-2nd team all NBA, scoring leader, most improved player, MVP??????
thabo- 2nd team all defense?
scotty- coach of the year
harden- all rookie team

@justin
Hmm... haven't thought about All NBA in a while. Kinda wrote off KD as third team SF behind Bron and Melo a while ago, but you have a point. Would they elect two small forwards to first team?

If KD breaks the record and OKC wins close to 50 I think there's a legit shot that he makes All NBA 1st team with LeBron over Dirk..

@sammy

thats pretty much how steve nash lockedd up that 2nd mvp award... he was out 10 games they went 2-8....

BTW, both of Blazer's Edge's game recaps (they do two for every game) are well worth reading

The only way I think LBJ loses the MVP is if he's out for any significant time and the Cavs continue to roll without him. If he's out for 5 games, and the Cavs lose 4 out of 5, doesn't that kinda prove the point?

Heysloth :
I know this has been posted before, but it was a long time ago and I cant find it. How does one get a picture above their name?

http://en.gravatar.com/

One more thing re: the MVP discussion: I don't think anyone can realistically make the argument that KD is REALLY more valuable to OKC than LBJ is to Cleveland. LeBron is a triple-double machine and his team would be mediocre (at best) without him, and KD (at this point) is simply a great scorer with a good work ethic. I think KD will win the MVP at some point, but LeBron is still clearly the best player in the league.

So Hollinger's playoff odds are 95.1% for us, with projected 50-32 record. Thats all computer based, but looking at our schedule, 50 wins is possible, we have a lot of tough games at home, if we can figure out how to take care of games at home, 50 is very realistic. Which according to Hollinger's simulated rankings, we would have the 4 seed. Dallas will do something at the trade deadline and/or the veterans will start picking up the team and will probably finish better. But it's fun to think about, home field for the first playoff series isn't just a pipe dream anymore.

haha john milner is a good man... stupid UPS shipped my zombie sonics t-shirt to some other residence... john milner fighting back and getting that re routed... attaboy

Omar :
If we win 50 games, KD has to win the MVP right?

As someone said earlier, I think the MVP is LeBron's to lose. If we hit 50 wins and KD wins the scoring title (and it would also be helpful if he surpasses MJ's 40-game 25ppg streak), there might be a discussion. Hitting a few game-winning shots would be good too, but I'd rather win by 10 points and avoid those situations in the first place.

I think his chances are better than most people think, mainly because of the way MVP voting has historically worked. People have already 1) seen LBJ dominate and lift his team to 60+ wins, and 2) he won the award last year. The voters like to see fresh faces in that slot. Then again, KD's age might also work against him.

I know this has been posted before, but it was a long time ago and I cant find it. How does one get a picture above their name?

@f5alcon

yea no way thats heppening more than likely they are going to take time off and relax would be my bet.

This season has been great, I would have never guessed that the Thunder would be sitting in good position to make the playoffs, and Durant would be a legitimate canidate for MVP (even if he has very little hope of beating Lebron). I cant imagine a better situation to have gotten a pro team, I was screaming like a little girl after the third time Durant shot over Batum effectively putting the game away.

@Omar

No.

@ThuDer

Chandler circa 2007 would be great on this team. Best rebounder in the league that season and could finish inside.. looks like they were right about the injuries though.

If we win 50 games, KD has to win the MVP right?

After last night's game anyone missing Tyson Chandler?

Hopefully the players that are not participating in the all star weekend use this week to get ready for dallas and work on weaknesses like a mini training camp

I'm confused...whats the WNBA?

We also need someone to upload Grant Long's call on KD's first crossover J over Batum in the 4th. It would have been incredibly anticlimactic if he had missed the shot, but it was a great call when he nailed it.

Anonymous :I check for bolts at 10:05. If they’re not there, I throw my keyboard.
Sometimes I hire the neighbor kid to start hitting refresh on my browser repeatedly at 9:55. Sure, I could automate it, but she’s 19 and cute, and there’s only the one chair.

I've been chuckling quietly at this for a minute straight now.