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Tuesday Bolts – 2.2.10

This is so cool. Wyn Douglas has put together an amazing transaction flow chart for every team. It’s an awesome visual way to see how each team was formed. Here’s the Thunder’s chart. Seeing “Kurt Thomas for unprotected first round pick” in graph form is still a beautiful thing. (via TrueHoop)

KD on the MVP chants: “Yeah I heard ‘em all right, I wanted to stand there longer so I could hear it more,” Durant said after Monday’s practice. “It was cool for the fans to think of me like that. To hear that MVP chant was pretty special.”

This doesn’t sound great: “Two reports over the past week — one by Frank Hughes of Sports Illustrated and a second appearing in Sports Business Daily (subscription required) — suggest the coming formal proposal from NBA owners regarding the salary split in the league’s new collective bargaining agreement could lop off as much as 20 percent from player payroll. Currently, players are guaranteed 57 percent of basketball-related revenue earned by the league. Hughes reports the owners are looking to lower that share to 45 percent.”

At the ThunderShop downtown in leadership square, Kevin Durant All-Star jerseys are on sale today. Getcha one.

This writer for Bleach Report think KD could tell LeBron a thing or two: ”He lives the good life in OKC. Maybe James and Wade could use another reminder of their peachy situations. Would you turn down $30 million over the life of your next contract? James and Durant play to engaged sellout crowds, and Wade sometimes does. The three stars are heroes in their cities. The self-proclaimed King owns Ohio, Wade has a monopoly on Miami, and Durant suits up for the only pro franchise in the state. Durant should not tell them what to do. Not even the NBA’s leading scorer since Christmas Day has that right. He can, however, recap his story, and it will hold some water.”

KD won Western Conference Player of the Week again.

Power rankings! Stein has OKC at 16: “January was Durant’s best month as a pro. He averaged 32.1 points for the month and signed off with his fourth 40-point game of the season, placing him fourth in the league behind Kobe (7), Melo (5) and LeBron (5).”

Hollinger has OKC eighth.

NBA.com has the Thunder at seven: “It was against the Warriors (there’s a Golden State Conversion Rate for scoring), but Kevin Durant was ridiculous on Sunday: 45 points on 16-for-21 shooting as the Thunder shot better than 50 percent as a team for the second straight game.”

OKC has made it to the first page on SI’s power rankings: “Two nights after dropping 30 points in a win over Denver, Kevin Durant scored 45 of the Thunder’s 112 points in a win over Golden State. The outburst, which came on 16-of-21 shooting from the field, moved Durant to within a tenth of a point of Anthony in the race for the league’s top scorer.”

Mike Baldwin reviews January: “The Thunder’s record in January was similar to cars in Oklahoma that spun their wheels during recent winter storms. The team avoided careening off the road — but it didn’t gain much traction in the NBA playoff race. Still, posting an 8-7 record in January was the first time since 2005 the organization has posted back-to-back winning months. The 2005 season is also the last time the franchise reached the playoffs.”

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More of the total story can come out this way as long as it is on the facts or opinions about their game and not just mainly I'm right / you're wrong.

It isn't easy to put a SF at PF or desirable. Durant. Or Green. Giving reason why passing on Noah, Lopez and Love was worth noting. Pass on all them, you better you pretty confident you got enough at PF / C= and I don't think they do= or can get it (with Mullens, Ibaka and whoever comes next) and we'll see on that.

Ugly ugly ugly by both teams so far. KD's shot better start to drop or this is gonna be one long night.

@Crow
Yeah, not trying to troll or anything. I just like having sports arguments :)

I noted the mixed decision on Durant's rebounding at PF last season and this one.

Thanks for the different view.

Even if I present a side, I can see a good deal of the other side. And I do in this case.

If they can hold their own better or actually win at PF with somebody else that's fine.

Unless you have a monster in the middle, Durant would have to pretty radically change his game for the team to succeed with him at PF. Stick this version of Durant at the four with a league-average 5, and you're getting eaten alive on the inside in the playoffs (much like we'll get beat this year). If Green is not the PF of the future, then you find another PF; I don't see how moving Durant makes the roster building situation any easier.

Gasol, Garnett, Varejao, Martin, Duncan, and Nowitzki may not be traditional 4s, but they are far closer to the archetype than Durant is. Rashard is the only true wing.

I don't think you can just look at KD's rebounding totals and conclude that he would be grabbing 9-10 a game at PF. I would think that being boxed out by the opposing PF instead of the opposing SF would have a substantial effect.

The only team on this list you really strongly need 2 traditional bigs on the court at the same time to beat is probably the Lakers.

My last post wasn't really an argument. It was mainly a survey.

Of the six teams I mentioned they had one traditional inside player and mostly the other guy shoots jumpers at least 50% of the time. Durant would be middle of the pack as the second rebounder in this group on defensive rebounding. Durant at PF wouldn't work well without a monster offensive rebounder at C but that doesn't absolutely require an all-star and it doesn't require a strong inside offensive game though that obviously is important.

I am not arguing you don’t need a traditional PF. I am saying Durant at PF might at some point work better than Green at PF.

@Crow
I'm not sure what you're arguing. Are you trying to say that you don't need a traditional PF? I would argue that of Garnett, Gasol, Martin, Varejao, Duncan, and Rashard, Durant is most like Rashard. Are you trying to argue that the pg + 3 wings + center strategy isn't limited to the Magic? I don't think you'll have much luck convincing anyone that Gasol, Garnett, Varejao, Martin, and Duncan are wings.

The Magic formula was a pg + 3 wings + a center... and then they brought in 2 PFs and a true SG and let a SF go.

The Celtics formula is a pg + 2 wings + a PF with both similarities and differences with Durant but a similar build + a non-All Star level center. It won a championship.

Cavs fairly often went pg + 3 wings + a center til they got Shaq and even then their PF is often Varejao, not considered that traditional or tough.

With the Nuggets Martin is a PF but with jumpshooting tendencies and size issues.

Gasol is clearly a big but with jumpshooting tendencies.

San Antonio doesn't really know how they want to play beside Duncan. They do a little of 3 different things.

RW/JH/Thabo/KD/ random center lineup with today's centers and today's Durant probably isn't much different than the current starting lineup on rebounding. The early numbers show a defensive rebounding problem and a big improvement in offensive rebounding so I basically don't really believe either that much.

I was only calling for it to be used 3-5 minutes a game, presumably against the right matchups and shut it down when things start to slide.

With a 25-27 year old Durant and a better center I think it could do fine.

But if you want Durant to play 40+ minutes it is probably easier for him at SF so I doubt that will change anytime soon.

And as you you got to have a compelling a reason. That reason will either be and only be 1) making the playoffs, if the current way doesn't work or 2) going deeper in the playoffs, if the current way doesn't work.

I think the Green pick was Presti looking at the future of the nba. The traditional PF has moved to center, and the traditional center has almost been extinguished. With that in mind, Green might fit alright at PF in that future. Green is the type of player that Presti likes, smart, athletic, was supposed to be a good passer, decent shooter, good attitude, strong work ethic, the type of guy that you want KD to be best friends with. Looking at the draft, there weren't many guys to choose from, Noah wasn't seen by many scouts as a starter, Brewer and Hawes didn't have very high upside, and have proven as much although Brewer is finally coming around. So while Green wasn't the BEST pick, I can't see how you could say it was a bad pick. If Green keeps KD around and helps generate a team first attitude, then I think it works out.

@kev
I was on the fence about the JG pick at the time. But at this point the only lottery pick lower than JG that I would make a one for one swap for is Noah.

Sammy :Finding a role playing 3 is fine, but then you’re essentially following the Magic formula of a pg + 3 wings + a center. If that’s the team building philosophy you’re after, you absolutely need an all star caliber center to space the floor on offense and hold down the middle on defense.

Sammy is rolling today . . .

Finding a role playing 3 is fine, but then you're essentially following the Magic formula of a pg + 3 wings + a center. If that's the team building philosophy you're after, you absolutely need an all star caliber center to space the floor on offense and hold down the middle on defense.

Sammy :I really don’t understand all the talk of moving KD to PF. Sure, if he fills out and the roster calls for it, I can see the switch. But why would you predict such a thing? Is he struggling at SF? Is he not already a matchup nightmare and playing solid defense? I don’t know what reason you would have for moving him there unless he just gets way too slow to guard anyone on the perimeter.

agreed . . .

Crow :Sammy I just think it’d be much easier to find a 3 to complement Durant (Thabo would fit there and allow Harden to play more or just get a strong 3 point shooting SF) than it would be to find a strong 4 period, much less one that made life easier for Durant.

I don't like the RW/JH/Thabo/KD/ random center lineup because of the hole we have in rebounding - that's our issue now with Green . . .

DizzyDai :KD was an obvious pick.Green is questionable.Westbrook and Ibaka were great picks (in my opinion).White, Weaver, Harden were solid picks.Mullens is a questionable pick, that could be a stoke of genius if he works out.Vaden and Hardin are decent junk picks for second rounders.

KD was a no brainer

RW was an acceptable pick (the jury is still out on "great"

JG was not a good pick

White and Weaver were acceptable because low 1st round picks and all second round picks are specualtive . . .

Harden (as of now) was not a good pick - I'm a Thabo fan, but even I thought Harden would be pushing Thabo to start by now - as it is, when Harden is playing, I can't wait until he's back on the bench . . .

Sammy I just think it’d be much easier to find a 3 to complement Durant (Thabo would fit there and allow Harden to play more or just get a strong 3 point shooting SF) than it would be to find a strong 4 period, much less one that made life easier for Durant.

On the Turkoglu comparison, he wasn't as fortunate as Green at receiving minutes early in his career but they were quite close on PER the first 3 seasons. Both tuned up their 3 pt shot in season 2 but then Turkoglu never lost it and with Green it is something of a question mark right now. They were similar rebounders early and Turk never changed and seems more likely Green won't than will. Turk didn't display the strong passing until really asked to at 27 though it was a notch ahead of Green by year 2. Does Green have to be asked or pushed? I don't really understand that part.

Green and Turkoglu have totally different games . . .

@Crow
I still don't understand why you would expect a move of Durant from 3 to 4 unless the roster that's built demands it. Honestly, I think it'd be much easier to find a 4/5 to complement Durant than it would be to find a 3.

It is a long time til Durant is 25 or 27 and so even though I left the time indefinite I was still generally expecting it to a ways off. Probably til after the decision whether to keep Green is made and perhaps tested into his 2nd contract and Ibaka gets his shot.

They are using Ibaka at center but that seems either out of necessity (if you won't cut back Green) or wrong but time will tell. Maybe Ibaka at center (with Mullens, and Krstic and/or Collison if kept around) will be whatever balance of small/big ball they are seeking.

There were only really 3 times when Westbrook-Harden-Sefolosha-Durant-Green didn't "work" (if in short minutes you can eve sorta say that) and in 2 cases the other team was bigger than normal, playing 3 bigs with a PF at SF.

If teams put the PF on KD and it isn't working out for the Thunder or even if it is then Green should post up the SF more.

But since KD can elevate over almost anybody and isn't that physical I assume most teams will opt to cover him with the SF unless they have a real small SF or a real good defending PF.

Actually looking at the detail it appears 2/3rds to 3/4ths of all the time of that Westbrook-Harden-Sefolosha-Durant-Green lineup
got came on just 4 occasions. Whether they were dictating or matching up would take an even closer look, which I won't do since they are using it so little.

Sammy it depends on how he plays. If Durant starts out from exactly his same normal spots as now but against a PF his ballhandling, driving ability and perimeter game are even more of an asset.

When he starts in the post and stays there they are less an asset but it all comes down to how he mixes it up.

Against backup 4s I wouldn't mind seeing him start in the post and stay there.

But if he plays PF you have to play a SF that other teams will / "have to" guard with the SF. Otherwise they will just put the SF on him, if they think that is better. With Green the other team basically can do what they want. They don't have to guard Durant with SF or PF, they can choose whatever they feel is best or best in that moment given where he is hitting from or not.

@crick
yeah i think the reason why these are better power rankings are that they explain why they ranked a team where they did.

Also, I don't see how moving KD furthers the mismatch on offense. His length is less of an asset if he's being guarded by PFs + his ballhandling, driving ability and perimeter game are less of an asset if he's spending more time in the post

Don Nelson would be all over that Westbrook-Harden-Sefolosha-Durant-Green lineup.

Or he'd make it Maynor- Westbrook-Harden or Sefolosha-Durant-Green

Mentioning him is not flattering to the lineup of course, it deserves to be viewed on its own merits.

I do think they could go that way 3-5 minutes a game for awhile and see how it does. It is getting an average of 1 minute a game and you can't say much about 44 minutes of total play.

I really don't understand all the talk of moving KD to PF. Sure, if he fills out and the roster calls for it, I can see the switch. But why would you predict such a thing? Is he struggling at SF? Is he not already a matchup nightmare and playing solid defense? I don't know what reason you would have for moving him there unless he just gets way too slow to guard anyone on the perimeter.

You named some pretty tough guys there Joe. Green could probably benefit from watching tape of them.

I think it has become less rough inside than it was in their day. So somewhat less risk for Durant to be in there, though I imagine that is still a major concern right now. And may continue to be. Wait n see if he changes physically or mentally to handle more of that. Though who at PF in the West is going to rough him up? You'd probably want to avoid Randolph and K Martin, maybe Duncan but who else? Maybe Love. Boozer, but he is probably headed east. Griffin when he plays. That isn't that many match-ups to avoid.

is the zintweeter back?

"nickcollison4 Watching "I Love You Man" w/wifey and thinking we are having a good time. Then I see on her facebook page that shes sleepy and headed to bed "

12th in the power ranking is plausible. I wouldn't go more than 1 - 2 higher and you could easily go down 2.

That 12th at SB is exactly 8th in the West. That is the more important list to rank against.

I want to see Westbrook/Harden/Thabo/Durant/Green sets more often when the matchup is right. That lineup, in limited time 44 minutes, has put up amazing numbers, is amazingly atheltic, and could force teams to play smaller which would help us.
From 82games.com
# Unit Min Off Def +/- W L Win%
1 Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Green-Krstic 699.6 1.02 1.05 -36 17 24 41.4
9 Westbrook-Harden-Sefolosha-Durant-Green 44.0 1.30 1.01 +26 6 6 50.0

Crow :
At some point Durant will become a full-time PF. I don’t know if it will be at 27 or 25 or sooner or later than these dates but I expect it to happen.

I completely agree crow. I think PF will be his primary spot with some SF sprinkled in. Lots of SF's have become very very valuable PF's as they age and get stronger and heavier. Rodney Rogers, Terry Cummings, Jerome Kersey etc. Heck, even Magic played PF when he came back from his AIDS retirement, and he did decently well.

But if KD did it when he was 26 or 27 he would still have his hops and foot speed, so he would be a double nightmare. A faster, taller and better shooting PF than most every matchup he would meet.

Green I think would be best destined to play SF or else tweener forward off the bench.

I tend to go the way you are asking Steven, KD might be the kind of guy who would take $2-3 million a season less than the absolute max or at least not all of the maximum allowable increases if he is happy and convinced it will help him win more.

crick :
at last… found a ranking that is really on the money, imo:
SB Nation NBA Power Rankings

the analysis by Mike Prada is spot on -- and funny too!

Yes Dan2 Green has a tough challenge playing PF in the NBA.

But arguably his Georgetown experience should have been great training if he was going be a point forward, the best possible experience in the Princeton offense and the key to it. But he is not and shows no signs of becoming that or being asked to be that. He is being asked to be a PF or a stretch 4 or bounce between these and that isn't the same as a point forward. I expected the point forward and if we had gotten that I probably would have been among his biggest fans, having been a big supporter of Schrempf and McKey.

Green and Krstic is what does not work IMO. Offense or defense, it's not a good combination.

since kd is such a team player and loves all these guys.. do you think he would at all pull a tim duncan and take a bit of a discount so the organization could sign westbrook and whoever else to an extension? I'm sure Presti will mention it at least

Part of that is Thabo and Krstic. So.. I wouldn't play Thabo and Green and Krstic together more than anything else by a huge factor. Take your pick, change at least one.
If not now, certainly if you got to the playoffs I'd want different and you have to be experienced enough with it to go that way.

Unless you can swing a big trade for a young capable starting center (unlikely but not impossibly), I think you need to use these two picks this year on high-upside pf/centers in this year's draft. Whiteside and Udoh are my picks. If you can move up to grab Aldrich, fantastic.

at last... found a ranking that is really on the money, imo:

SB Nation NBA Power Rankings

Green could become a Turkoglu, who struggled for a while. I think being a tweener, it takes longer to find your niche, because unlike in high school where you play PF and C, and unlike college, when you play PF but are still stronger than most PF, Green is weaker than most PF, so he has to relearn how to his game, mixing SF type moves for jump shots and PF type moves to go to the post. He has shown plenty of savvy going to the hoop, he just doesn't do it enough, maybe thats a coaching thing and Brooks is still trying to figure out how to best use him, or maybe its Green not wanting to give up his perimeter shots. Maybe Green has maximized his potential already, I hope not, but he could also still be in the process of learning how to be a big SF playing PF against the biggest, most athletic basketball players out there. Not all above-average players had a steep growth curve like Durant and westbrook. Those guys are rare, the exception not the rule. And I've said this before, I don't think he plays well with Kristic, they don't complement each other at all.

If Ibaka can become a bit more like Varejao and Noah- big rebounding... and overall positive defense and helping the team offense (not just contributing individual offense) and not hurting it that would also help.

This is raw and isn't a simple definitive answer but Noah 3 seasons, 3 times team offense better on than off, as a bench player and as a starter. Team offense is more important than individual offense.

Green, just once and not this season, not even close.

If Mullens works out or they swing a big man trade that takes pressure off the earlier picks. If the quality of the PF/C contributions relative to the best of the west remains weak for several more years then the pressure comes right back to these draft day decisions.

@Mark!
I agree that the O needs alot of work. Obviously more attention than it is getting now is required, but if they do the same thing to the O next year as they did with the D this year we will be great. I'm crossing my fingers.

Ultimately you need a roster and lineups that can win more than 50% against playoff teams and the better playoff teams.

With Green the Thunder is 6-12 against the top 10 and 9-16 against the top 16 thi season.

Can't say what they do with Noah but I think it is more likely a toss-up between the same or better than worse.

In Noah's first playoff taste he did about what he is doing now- 10 pts on alright shooting with 13 rebs per game (including 4 per game on offensive glass).

But we'll see what Green does in his first playoff series. Eventually. I assume.

@clarkem

Defensive focus is fine.

I think we expected something closer to 70/30 D vs O.

Feels more like 99/1.

KD was an obvious pick.
Green is questionable.
Westbrook and Ibaka were great picks (in my opinion).
White, Weaver, Harden were solid picks.
Mullens is a questionable pick, that could be a stoke of genius if he works out.
Vaden and Hardin are decent junk picks for second rounders.

@Crow

I think we value versatility. I think they will acquire a traditional center and see how things work with the Green / Durant forward combination. I don't think they look at Green / Durant as SF / PF in the traditional way. Green just usually ends up guarding the opposing team's PF. He has varying degrees of success depending on how physical his opposition is: this is the main problem with that forward combination IMO. Green's shown some glimpses offensively that perhaps he could work alongside Durant on that side of the ball.

You are correct that they will eventually have to make a decision on whether or not the Green / Durant pairing is ideal long term. If you look at lineup production, Green / Durant does much better when Collison is the center (offensively and defensively). So maybe there is some logic to the idea of BIG CENTER / Green / Durant. I just wish we'd see more of it.

I agree with Clark that Harden has come a long way defensively. Offensively, he's still adjusting to the NBA. I think it was Vince who said that it might take him a bit to adjust coming from the Pac 10. All he really needs is a mid range game IMO and he'll be very effective.