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Kevin Durant and the Visibility Index

Kevin Durant’s star is rising. That’s obvious. He absolutely ruled All-Star Weekend, he’s got a lot of folks chattering about what he could be and his stock has risen so high that there are whisperings of  ”LeBron or Durant?” debates. His team is now in the thick of the Western Conference, he’s chasing a record Michael Jordan has and he has a chance to lead the NBA in scoring.

But nobody is seeing it. I’ve heard some of the national talk about Durant and even down at All-Star Weekend and a lot of it was, “Yeah, he’s a scorer, but what else does he do?” There were even people talking about his shot selection, which was an issue his rookie year. People aren’t completely understanding his evolution and improvement as a complete player because he’s not visible. It’s obvious that KD is setting the world on fire without its citizens taking notice. The reason? Nobody is seeing it happen. So I thought it might be interesting to apply Free Darko’s “Visibility Index” to Durant and compare him to some of his peers.

(What is Visibility Index you ask? It’s simple: Take this season’s attendance (both road and home), add Google hits, add this year’s All-Star vote tally, add their top price for the player’s rookie card (multiplied by 100,000), add this year’s total national television appearances (multiplied by 1,000,000) and divide it all by 1,000,000.)

I went ahead and separated each category just in case you were curious.

PLAYERGlobal Google Hits (Jan.)09-10 All-Star Votes09-10 Total AttendanceTV AppearancesTop Rookie Card Price
Kevin Durant170,000870,567925,8392$19.99
Kobe Bryant5,000,0002,456,2241,073,63225$80.00
LeBron James5,000,0002,549,6931,125,38825$129.99
Carmelo Anthony550,0002,137,560972,28122$89.99
Dirk Nowitzki246,0001,093,0051,031,31215$50.00
Dwyane Wade823,0002,327,5501,011,08913$60.00

It’s an absolute crime Oklahoma City hasn’t played on national TV more. I honestly don’t know why. NBA fans want to see them. They’re begging to get a look at one of the most exciting young teams in the league. They’ve seen enough of the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Hornets. They’re wanting some Thunder.

This isn’t to say Durant isn’t getting his due. Most national publications have him in the top five in their early MVP balloting and he got a solid amount of All-Star votes for a third-year player. But in terms of global recognition, he’s lacking. A lot of it has to do with his playing in a forgotten NBA town. Oklahoma City isn’t quite the household name like Dallas, Los Angeles or Denver. And plus, Durant’s team hasn’t been successful until recently.

Don’t get me wrong though, this isn’t an Oklahoma City problem. It’s not about the market size. It’s more to do with the incredible rapid improvement of the Thunder and Durant. People weren’t expecting to be talking about KD as an MVP so soon. People weren’t thinking about the Thunder as a legit contender. The recognition is surely coming, but just not right now.

Durant if making his visibility rise. He’s forcing people to take notice. He’s in commercials, he’s making All-Star teams and he’s gathering the attention of the media. A playoff run will get him some serious exposure that will likely lead to more visibility next year. But right now, Kevin Durant is absolutely tearing up the NBA and not enough people are getting to appreciate it.

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My English is not good, not too much to see to understand. But thank you to share with me

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SAASF

Reputations are made in the playoffs. More people will know about him this time next year, no doubt.

same with bosh and the raptors

I jsut think as far as the national tv schedule goes, you need to remember that most of that is put in place before the year begins, and they dont change very many of the games during the year. If the Thunder and Durant arent on national TV more often next year, then thats an issue, but not too much the NBA could do, especially with such hefty gaps

I still collect sportscards, and I am not the only one. The prices used in this visibility index are B.S. Lebron's best rookie sells between 10,000 and 12,000 dollars. Durant's sells 1,000-2,000. The brand is called exquisite, check E-bay if you don't believe me. The prices used look more like their Topps rookies (inexpensive brand) than their best rookies.

It's funny that this formula adds all of those things together and the last thing is TV appearances x 1,000,000 and then divide everything by 1,000,000. Evidently whoever created this formula was not a math person. You can just add tv appearances and forget about multiplying by 1,000,000 then dividing by 1,000,000. You'll get the same number.

I think this is a little skewed by how many years the other players on the list have been in the league compared to Durant. All these players have big endorsement deals as well, so they're in commercials on a regular basis.

I'd be curious to see a couple guys on the list with him who haven't been in the league quite as long (i.e. Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Brandon Roy). I know LeBron isn't much older than these guys, but he's a bit of an exception, he's been famous since high school. Anyway, I think Durant would measure up favorably with these guys, who are all older than he is. Either way, I definitely feel like this is the calm before the storm for his national and worldwide attention goes through the roof.

using the rookie card is pretty ridiculous.. i used to be an avid collector when i was a kid, but then they overflooded the market and completely ruined it.. anyways, the older the player, the older the card, the more expensive the card.. so KD is hurt for only being in his third year.. yes, the bigger the star, the more expensive the card, but the age of the card has a lot to do with it as well..

and that sitting down making a shot world record is beyond stupid.. anybody can make that given enough shots.. all of us could make it given enough shots.. you can't just start making crap up and calling Guinness to have them make it a record.. "Hey Guinesss, I can write my own name backwards faster than anyone in the world!"

@f5alcon
Eh. He'd probably overthrow the backboard every time.

@Arrrchie
its mostly set before the season.

We will get 16 more tv appearances on our undefeated playoff run to a title

@Sammy
finally something for jamarcus russell to practice while destoying his nfl career

As far as national TV appearances, is that something that is set in stone before the season or can they change who gets national appearances throughout the season? The reason I ask is that nobody (at least not on a wide scale) was expecting this kind of improvement in such a short amount of time for the Thunder. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Thunder will be featured in several national appearances next year based on how they've done this year.

Also, Durant doesn't seem to be the same kind of "spotlight" personality that players like LeBron and Kobe are. People haven't seen an engaging, hilarious player yet, but once he gets featured in ads and so on, his (inter)national visibility is sure to skyrocket. Be patient, because soon enough, Durant's popularity will match his talent level if he's willing to market himself. The only way that doesn't happen is if he prefers to stay low key...

@andrew
300-500 a year is a realistic number, thats only 1 or 2 a day. sucks for his wife though. It is more realstic then wilts claim of 20,000.

Valley of the Suns has a pre-game preview up:

Preview: Suns (34-23) at Thunder (33-21)

money quote:

“Oklahoma City’s turning into one of the best teams in the league,” Nash said. “Kevin Durant is turning into one of the best players in the league. They found out how to win, and they’re a bunch of winners right now.”

all those players are older then durant, compare them at their 3rd years and i bet the picture is different, lebron is still tops probably but i bet wade is 2nd then.

One thing about Durant's visibility... it couldn't be higher here in our own fan base.

Man, I've stared at so many pics and videos of Durant in the last year and a half -- I think I know his face better than my own.

@andrew
Just to clarify that was not a statement wishing that I had AIDS.

Do you think Portland is kicking themselves now for taking the second coming of Sam Bowie who they drafted instead of Jordan? I thought we studied history to prevent repeating the same mistakes. Apparently Portland doesn't heed that advice.

Who buys sports cards anymore? Why is that deemed a fair barometer of popularity/visibility?

Other things we should use then:

Price of player's favorite cassette tape.
Price of player's favorite movie on Betamax.
Price of player's favorite Molly Ringwald movie.
Price of player's favorite Cheers episode.
Length in centimeters of player's shorts (the shorter the better).
Age of player's favorite "Dallas" character.

All of these other things were popular in the 80s, so why not?

i think the nasayers are more a case of KD hype has come to the point that the inevitable blackcash has already started too.

@Royce Young
20 x 100,000 = 2 x 1,000,000.

The commenter is correct, but for KD only, in noting that both inputs carry equal weight in his current visibility index rating.

The commenter overlooked the fact that each additional TV game is worth 10x's more than each additional $1 added on KD's rookie card.

The real insanity is that the thunder have only been on national TV twice! What the heck!

I'm slightly okay with the lack of major exposure. Makes the thunder more dangerous I think.

I do however think it's terrible that the NBA feels the need to only put about 6 teams in it's national tv rotation. I'm sick of watching the cavs, celtics or _____. As a fan of basketball, it would be nice to be able to watch lesser teams, some of whom are far more exciting than the quote unquote contenders. There are some very good young players that we never see except on league pass. The thunder have a few of them!

i do think it's crazy that we haven't been picked up for more national games, though.. we are the hottest team in the NBA, and we have the newest and hottest superstar.. i know people want to see him..

oh, and one more thing.. in all the time i spend on ESPN and other sports forums, i can't tell you how many people i've seen say, "I'm a ____ fan, but the Thunder are my second favorite team. They are so fun to watch." or things just like that.. see it all the time.. pretty cool..

i constantly read through ESPN message boards and look at different papers' and blogs' stories about KD.. and everyone is talking about him.. at the ESPN boards, he's right behind LeBron and Kobe for the most attention from their users.. right now, less visible or not, people are talking about KD way more than they are Wade, Carmelo, and Dirk..

Thank you! We in OKC have been scratching our heads trying to figure out when ESPN or NBATV are going to start covering us. We are winning, we are packing our arena and we have KD. Someone should be seeing us besides us!

Coming from a Blazers fan, trust me, you don't want the hyper-media attention. It goes to the players heads, keep it small-town.

@Anonymous
The card has a multiplier of 100,000. The TV appearances has a multiplier of 1,000,000. So it's weighted a little differently.

Signing Bosh would make our team real thin.. we'd have to do a sign and trade with Toronto, sending them a cheap player or two to make the salaries match. There's no way we can extend Jeff Green with Westbrook / Durant / Bosh and James Harden better not improve much or he'll be tough to re-sign as Bosh will be at ~$20 million by then.

You listening, Bosh?

Scott (Boston)

With the Thunder on a 9 game win streak and on pace to have ~27 more wins than last year due in large part to Kevin Durant going off for 25+ in 28 straight games, how close do you think the MVP voting will be at season's end, given that LeBron has basically wrapped it up? Is there anyway you think Durant can overtake LeBron in the last few months?

Chad Ford (1:35 PM)

I don't think there's anything Durant can do to pass LeBron at this point. However. Durant has what it takes to be a MVP in the next three years. If I was Chris Bosh ... I would seriously think about signing with the Thunder. Put Bosh on the floor with Durant and Westbrook and they'd be a title contender.

Durant's exposure is probably better than painted, because...

a lot of fans follow the NBA on the internet and probably keep track of KD and the Thunder by reading espn.com, si.com, nba.com, etc. as well as blogs like Daily Thunder -- and twitter pages too. Most of this traffic won't show up as a specific Google search for the name "Kevin Durant".

if this thesis is true, it hurts the team more than Kevin. Because you can get a lot of info about him personally that way, but you really have to watch the Thunder to appreciate what the team is about.

@J.G.

No, I've been there but I'm right below Knoxville in Maryville, TN. I've played in basketball tournaments in Tri-Cities, but that's about my only experience with that area.

the networks are a bunch of poo-poo heads!

@JelloPuddinPup
Where are you in East Tennessee, around the Tri-Cities by any chance?

Let me add to that though, I still wish we had MORE appearances, like maybe 10 total this season would've been nice! Especially later in this season given how well we're playing, but whatever. I just go to my friends house whenever the Thunder are on NBATV so I can watch 'em, otherwise I get them on NBALP-Broadband.

Sucks being a Thunder fan in East-Tennessee.

I think it should be divided by (1,000,000 X Number of Years in the League).

@JelloPuddinPup
Ha. Yeah, I'm pretty happy with the lack of national tv cause I have league pass but not cable.

Anybody think the lack of National Appearances are actually a blessing? Less pressure nationally for this YOUNG team to go through. Besides, they're why I bought the broadband league pass and I've gotten a TON of use out of it thanks to the Thunder.

That seems like an enormous oversight by the Suns not to have an extra guard, Barbosa's been out awhile it's not like they haven't had time to do that..

They haven't added anyone to their roster that I can find. I guess Grant Hill is capable of spot PG duty..

@justin
I have no idea. So their only two healthy guards are Dragic and J Rich?

justin :Who plays backup PG for the Suns tonight? Barbosa is still out. Is Dragic going to play the whole game?

no idea - they dont have a backup on their roster - they probably added a guy in the last few days (I presume) . . .

"A lot of it has to do with his playing in a forgotten NBA town."

that implies we were once a KNOWN NBA town. Maybe we'll get there someday.

Who plays backup PG for the Suns tonight? Barbosa is still out. Is Dragic going to play the whole game?

For what it's worth, he's on fire but he does have some shot selection issues. So does LeBron, though, so it's not a huge deal. Most big time scorers do.

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  2. [...] The Fu Manchu: Royce Young applies Free Darko’s Visibility Index to Kevin Durant, and discovers that he is hardly being seen at all. [Daily Thunder] [...]