How good is Kevin Durant? Trade-a-championship-for-him good
Whether you like him or not, Bill Simmons has kind of become the authoritative voice on the NBA. And I generally trust him and enjoy what he has to say. And when he writes about Kevin Durant and the Thunder, I find it important. Here’s what he said in today’s mailbag:
Q: If you could go back in time “Lost”-style and fix the 2007 lottery so the Celtics landed the second pick, would you keep what happened (No. 5 pick, KG trade, 2008 title, everything else that happened up to now), or would you switch it so that they ended up with the No. 2 pick and Durant?
–Dr. Bill Simmons, Boston
SG: OK, I fibbed that one. My dad asked me that on the phone this week. And we both came to the same conclusion pretty quickly: You’d have to go with Durant. Have you seen what he’s doing for the Zombies lately? Thirty a night, eight boards, 50 percent shooting, nails his free throws … just eerie, Gervin-like consistency for a young team that doesn’t have another reliable scorer, and if that’s not enough, he’s the single best teammate in the league other than LeBron. Barring injury, he’s going to win this year’s scoring title (he’d be the youngest ever by two years) and could be looking at a historic 35 ppg, 10 rpg, 50/40/90 percentage season soon. I don’t see how you pass that up. And if you remember, the 2007 Celts had a decent nucleus in place already (Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Paul Pierce, Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract, the rights to Minnesota’s No. 1) and easily could have turned a couple of those assets into Pau Gasol a couple of months later.
Here’s the best analogy: You know in football when a team kicks a field goal, only there’s a penalty, and they have the option of wiping the points off the board but getting four new downs? It’s usually a horrible idea to wipe the points off unless you have someone on the Brady-Manning-Brees level as your quarterback. Too risky otherwise. For a redo of the 2007 lottery scenario, you would wipe three points off the board (in this case, an NBA title), grab Durant and go for seven points (the possibility of multiple titles and 15-plus years of a potential pantheon guy). You have to.
One more note: This is something like my 10th or 11th year with NBA Season Pass. I have never gotten attached to a non-Celtics team before, and I’ve never played favorites if there were multiple non-Boston games happening at the same time. This year? I find myself gravitating to Zombies games night after night. It’s a real team. They like one another. They’re better as a group than they are as individuals. And Durant is the most special non-LeBron talent in basketball. Not only is there nobody like him, but there’s also never been anyone like him. He’s an original prototype.
You know how many times I read that? Three. Three times. It’s just so lovely. But think about that kind of high praise. First off, Simmons says Thunder basketball is must-see-TV. (Too bad ESPN and TNT don’t see it that way.) But here you have a guy that is willing to forgo a title for his team in order to possess a player we currently have on our team. If that doesn’t tell you how good KD is, well, then you should really start watching Thunder games. And if that doesn’t make you scream like a 14-year-old girl at a Jonas Brothers concert, then you have no heart.
Here’s KD’s line since Dec. 22: 32.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 53 percent from the field, 54 percent from 3, 88 percent from the line. Add to that the 23-game streak, the fact his team is 15-8 in that span and oh yeah, that’s he’s 21 freaking years old and well, you should be changing your pants by now. It’s getting really old when people try and remind us that we’ve got something really special here in OKC, but people, WE’VE GOT SOMETHING SPECIAL.
@justin
Agree that way too many athletic PFs are compared to Kemp. Kemp was a really really special player in his prime. Absolutely unstoppable on the break. He had a will to humiliate you. Best power dunker of all time. Everyone knows he was a good rebounder and shot blocker, but he also had good handles and was an underrated passer as well.
@justin
He’s not just our Chris Andersen, he’s our Chris Andersen with an offensive game and more upside.
Ibaka can shoot the ball OK but that’s not really an ‘offensive game’. He has below average hands, and his foot work isn’t that great when he has the ball. The fact that he has an elbow jumper will definitely help him, though.
I wouldn’t put his offensive potential much far beyond someone like Udonis Haslem at this point: hit the open mid range jumper and finish inside when set up. He hasn’t shown that he can create for himself consistently save for a few scattered plays. This isn’t a knock on Ibaka, a defensive presence that can rebound on both ends, block shots, and score when set up properly is very valuable. I don’t think he has good enough ball skills to be someone who can create offense for himself, but that could definitely change.
after Pippen came along, every small forward with any kind of handle and passing ability was compared to him . . . all you are doing is flattering the former player when you do that . . .
I think it cheapens the former player.. I don’t think too many people realize how good Shawn Kemp was. He never even really got to hit his prime, because of drugs, promiscuity, weight gain, etc. Makes people think all Kemp did was dunk on people
@justin
Hey now, let’s not cheapen the value of being able to dunk on people. It’s a great tool that does more than just get you on the highlight reel.
@Sammy
Yeah and it gets people like Harold Miner nicknamed ‘Baby Jordan’
wow, a harold miner reference!
rather than becoming the next air jordan, he now sells air jordans at a mall in new jersey…
I get your point justin, I’m just saying that if you get player after player being called “the next jordan” that’s illustrating how great the original must be -
This is unrelated, but man, check out David Lee’s January:
21.1 PPG / 12.6 RPG / 4.7 APG / 2.1 TO on 50.4% FG / 80.1% FT
He’d be the perfect PF for this team next to a competent center..
@justin
You start up the Lee bandwagon and I’ll ride shotgun.
@justin
Wow, 4.7 APG? That’s damn sexy is what that is. Lee next to Ibaka would actually do a lot to mask each other’s deficiencies…
How has the PH been doing recently? I haven’t watched Orlando much, but from his game logs, it looks like he’s playing pretty well in the games in which he gets good minutes.
David Lee is a tremendous passer.. off the pick and roll, in transition..
@Vega
He’s kinda going through the motions. He was really confused by Orlando matching his contract and I think he’s just waiting to be traded.
Him and Brandon Bass. What was Brandon Bass thinking when he signed there, where was he going to get minutes?
Gortat’s been super ordinary, I wouldn’t touch that contract with a ten foot pole.
@justin
I don’t think anyone expected Ryan Anderson to go awesome mode and swipe all of Bass’s minutes.
Bringing in Lee would certainly be a gamble. Would he buy into the team’s defensive philosophy? Is Brooks and Presti willing to make the right move and move Green to the bench if we bring in Lee? Is Green going sulk and ruin the chemistry if that happens?
Lee’s not going to come cheap. The move sounds sexy, and it’s probably a gamble I’d make if I were GM. But my feeling is the the organization hasn’t given up hope that they can find their Tyson Chandler – a true defensive center that can also get inside and score from the low block.
@justin
My prediction is that he explodes as soon as he’s freed from Orlando and given a starting role. I think he’s a decent talent and could very well produce fair value for his contract once he’s giving max effort.
I think Lee is good because it drastically lowers the requirements for what we need in a center from scorer and defender to just defender. Those aren’t as tough to find.. even trade Green for one.
@Sammy
It’s possible but I’m dubious.. he’s the last in a long list of centers who got MLE sized contracts based on a small sample. Almost all of them disappoint.
If David Lee’s price exceeds $10 million average then I think you let him sign elsewhere. Otherwise it fits neatly into the payroll long term without affecting any of the extensions..
@justin
I think with the amount of cap space around this summer, he’ll definitely get over $10 mil. I’m guessing either the Nets or Bulls pick him up. The counter-argument, I suppose, is that some of the teams with a lot cap space may decide not to use it in preparation for the seemingly inevitable 2011 lockout.
If either the Nets or Bulls acquire a higher priced free agent they won’t have a spot for David Lee.. with Joe Johnson, Amar’e, Bosh, Boozer, LeBron, Wade, all free agents and the possible lock out situation I’m not sure David Lee is going to get a huge pay day. Not to mention RFA’s such as Luis Scola or MLE types such as Haywood, Przybilla, Ginobili, Mike Miller, etc. There’s definitely a good chance one of the four other teams with significant cap space will whiff on all the bigger names and overpay David Lee, so yeah you let him go. I’m not sure it’s going to happen.
@justin
Mike Miller is NOT worth a MLE deal anymore, however, I wouldn’t mind having him on the Thunder for say, a two year, six million dollar deal.
Don’t forget Ryan Gomes would have been the energy player off the bench for the Celts.
Ibaka, from what I’ve seen looks more like a young Camby then Kemp
Am I missing something with his reference to the Zombies?
are you missing anything? no.
Don’t forget about Gerald Green!