Home > Commentary > Chris Sheridan has some ideas for Sam Presti

Chris Sheridan has some ideas for Sam Presti

Writing on TrueHoop, Chris Sheridan has some fun with the trade machine and comes up with two deals for OKC. Deal No. 1: James Harden, Matt Harpring’s contract, Etan Thomas and a couple first rounders to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa, and Jarron Collins. And then No. 2: Nick Collison, Kyle Weaver and D.J. White to Washington for Mike James, Francisco Oberto, Nick Young and Earl Boykins.

So now OKC’s roster looks like this, assuming Kevin Ollie and Jarron Collins are bought out/waived:

C: Stoudemire, Nenad Krstic, Oberto
PF: Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka.
SF: Kevin Durant, Thabo Sefolosha
SG: Barbosa, Young, Boykins.
PG: Russell Westbrook, James, Eric Maynor

It’s definitely a nice looking roster. Amare on the inside is definitely big time. And there’s some offensive firepower and speed with Barbosa running between Westbrook and Durant. But here’s where it makes no sense: Thabo is playing behind KD and Barbosa is starting. This team has built an identity on the defensive end, and now two of the softer defensive players in the Western Conference are now starting for you. You lose James Harden, who has been the absolute perfect fit on the roster, ruin team chemistry and potentially tick off Kevin Durant.

People are getting carried away with the Thunder right now. The common thinking is, “Hey, they’re pretty good now. Why not get better and actually try and make some noise in the postseason?” And my response is, why can’t the Thunder make noise with the CURRENT roster?

This team was good when the season started. And it has exponentially improved as the weeks have passed. Yes, it’s young. Yes, it’s not a finished product. But now this summer’s flexibility takes a major hit, the Thunder is now touching what will likely be the salary cap next year and the most important thing, is the roster really that much better?

Obviously, Ford is just playing around with ideas. He’s not entirely serious with these moves. And Oklahoma City is an intriguing team at the deadline. But avoiding these types of trades are exactly how Sam Presti has built the current roster. He’s drafted, signed smartly and traded for pieces to build around a cornerstone. It hasn’t been by running year to year trying to make a splash to keep the team’s head above water. It’s been by building for long term, sustained success. Living season to season is the Phoenix Sun way. That’s the Washington Wizard way. That’s the New Orleans Hornet way. That’s not really the Thunder way.

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Try to trade Mullens an expiring contract and 2 first round picks to Memphis for Thabeet. A project still but probably better than most centers coming up. Gotta keep Krstic for backup. Unless Presti believes in Mullens future.

@Bruno
Exactly.

The only reason I could see for making a rent-a-player move this year would be if they thought that all these nagging injuries might make the Lakers vulnerable this year. Of course there's still everybody else, so that wouldn't be the smartest move either.

FOr Center in my opinion Hasheem Thabeet is final answer . he is monster shot blocker and we have a chance to get him.he got limited minute in memphis poor Hassheem no.3pick but not have time to played

Trade Kristic or Thomas or Harping + money, + First-round pick for him .....or waiting good free agency like david lee

MY DAY DREAM DEPTH
C: THABEET/Ibaka
PF: Green/Collison
SF: Durant/first round pick
SG: Harden/Thabo
PG: Westbrook/Mayno

Fringe player
C: Mullen
PF: DJ white
SF: N/A
SG: Weaver
PG: Second-round pick

Yeah 5th spot in the playoffs after tonight! Might not need any trades or roster changes at this point. I predict the thunder are gonna end up in the 4th spot at the end, nice. Maybe they could trade all this years draft picks and Mullens to memphis for Thabeet since Gasol looks like the starter for them and he's still young.

The thing is, these young guys may never develop and we could be in a tough situation sometime soon, but is AMARE STOUDEMIRE really the answer?

When I advocate no more moves, it`s not because I`m totally happy with this team for the future, just that no trade scenarios seem really good right now.

You guys are looking too much into stats to judge Amare`s impact... he barely averages 8 rebounds a game playing on a run and gun team (David Lee averages 3 more on a similar system), what would these numbers look on the Thunder?

Also, he`s been on some pretty amazing teams and won nothing, disappearing when he needed to step up, and always complaining in the process.

Take Steve Nash and his otherwordly passing skills away from him and he becomes another ultra talented guy who uses basically 50% of his potential any given night.

I would hate any trade that didn`t bring us Bosh or maybe (MAYBE) Biedrins or Lee, if the price is really low.

@Royce
Why not go after an established center for a playoff run? I like a player like Dalembert because of his defensive presence. Also he becomes an expiring next year so if it doesn't work out the Thunder could probably flip him. I was thinking something like this.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=...

I don't like Amare here. He's a bad defender, not near as good a rebounder as people think (72nd overall in rebounding rate), and is more turnover prone than anyone on our team. It can't be overlooked that he looked terrible outside of a run and gun system (between D'Antoni and Gentry), and that we aren't looking to run like the Suns. Yes, he is a superior scorer to anyone we have outside of Durant, but how much of that is Nash (whom Westbrook simply can't take the place of)? Amare doesn't fit in our slower, defense-first team.

this article is the reason why he is a writer and not a GM

educated idiot.... to short sighted ... not long term

@justin
Point taken. My hope is that the Thunder is better and drafting and developing their young than most other teams in the league.

One rationale for the current development model is that the mistakes are a lot cheaper. If Serge turns out to be Michael Sweetney then it'll be a cheap mistake--he'll be cut loose after his second or third year. If Presti trades for and signs Amare to a overpriced extension then the team is stuck in salary cap limbo for years.

If a KG in his prime was available then maybe that would be the move. With Kobe and Dirk aging and injured OKC is very close to the top of the West.

With looking at how players improve it is important to look at their role from when they were drafted to a few years later. If the Thunder keep the young players in their roles and in the rotation then they should progress much like Westbrook, Durant, and Green have been improving. But if you look at teams where players are changing roles because of success or other trades such as what has happened to DJ Augustin and Jason Thompson where they are no longer able to develop. So the question is more about whether or not Harden, Ibaka, Mullens are given time to develop or whether they will be like DJ White and not really have opportunities to develop. It's similar to the reasoning for why OKC doesn't want to draft potential players but players who will provide production and fill holes.

@DL

26 rookies played more than 1000 minutes last season. I will use PER to compare their years because it's too much data otherwise, but hopefully this will give a general idea of how they progressed.

OJ MAYO: +0.7
DERRICK ROSE: +1.2
ERIC GORDON: -.1
RUSSELL WESTBROOK: +1.7
MARIO CHALMERS: -1.1 (OUT OF ROTATION)
BROOK LOPEZ: +3.0
JASON THOMPSON: +.3
LUC RICARD MBAH A MOUTE: -1.2
KEVIN LOVE: +4.4
MICHAEL BEASLEY: -.4
RUDY FERNANDEZ: -2.0
COURTNEY LEE: +1.5
DJ AUGUSTINE: -4.6
BRANDON RUSH: +.5
ANTHONY MORROW: -1.0
DARRELL ARTHUR: INJURED DNQ
NIC BATUM: INJURED DNQ
GREG ODEN: INJURED DNQ
RYAN ANDERSON: +3.0
GEORGE HILL: +2.7
MARRESSE SPEIGHTS: +2.3
KYLE WEAVER: INJURED DNQ
JAVALLE MCGEE: -3.6
ANTHONY RANDOLPH: +2.6
ROY HIBBERT: -0.1

Seems like a crapshoot to me..

In my dream world, we will trade Harpring, Mullens, White/Weaver, and our 1st round pick this year for Biedrins (giving the Warriors a 1st, a center that likes to shoot, and saves them a ton of money in the process). Then Phoenix will trade away Amare and Richardson and subsequently tank. The Phoenix pick then somehow nets us Cole Aldrich. Finally we're able to somehow dump Krstic to save money.

Biedrins/Aldrich
Green/Ibaka/Collison
Durant
Thabo/Harden
Westbrook/Maynor

Just one man's dream.

@spike

You have to define what 'much better' is. There are posters here that believe that Serge Ibaka is destined to be our starting center; that this is in fact a likely outcome (Ibaka has been playing basketball since childhood, BTW, his parents played for the national team).

Olimude Oyedeji was a 19 year old rookie for the Sonics. He had similar rebounding and shot blocking numbers that Ibaka has in 200+ minutes, but never improved, was out of the league within three years.

Mike Sweetney was a 21 year old rookie played 500 minutes and played better than Ibaka but never improved, was out of the league within five year.

Jelani McCoy was 21-22 in his first two years in Seattle and had better numbers than Ibaka, but never improved.

Johan Petro was a 20 year old rookie who played 1200 minutes, he was mediocre but again, never improved.

This illusion that every young prospect is going to improve exponentially is what gets teams in trouble. You can't rest on those laurels and assume everything is going to go right. Ibaka, Harden, and Maynor are likely to improve somewhat, but I don't think it's a given at all, or even very likely that they will all improve 'significantly'. Of the three, Harden is most likely IMO to become an NBA starter..

NBA players generally make a significant leap from rookie year to second year. Look at the 2008 NBA draft, of the players who showed real promise in their rookie years I can only count a handful who have regressed: D.J Augustin, Jason Thompson, and Courtney Lee. The other ones (the ones who were good their first year, not the Joe Alexanders) have played more minutes and become more productive in their second years. Harden, Ibaka and Maynor have all played important minutes (not garbage time) for a playoff-bound team. It bodes well for the future.

justin :@DL
Why are Harden, Ibaka, and Maynor all likely to ‘improve significantly’ next year? What are you basing this assumption on? As we are currently experiencing with Jeff Green, and as any fan of, say, Al Thorton will tell you, progression is not always linear. I think you’re taking a lot for granted by making those kinds of assumptions.

Because there is a strong tendency for rookies to improve with experience. No, not every rookie does- but most do, and it is entirely reasonable to expect improvement from first and second year players in the NBA. This is kinda like arguing that water is wet.

Fans that are new to the NBA and the Thunder have a perception problem. They have seen Durant get better by leaps and bounds every year of his career. You have to remember that this behavior is an anomaly.

It is understood that young players will improve. Most of the time, it works out that way. However, to expect Harden or Ibaka to improve like KD did is expecting too much. Neither Russell or Green improved at that pace.

If you go down our roster and ask yourself the simple question "is this player's ability at a championship level in his role", my evaluation comes out to something like this:

Kevin: #1 option, NBA Finals Champ right now.

Russell: #3 option, NBA Finals Champ in 2 years time. Must improve shooting % and defense to get there.

Jeff: #2 option off the bench, NBA Finals Champ right now. Problem is, he's our #2 option as a starter right now.

James: #1 option off the bench, 6th man, NBA Finals Champ in 2 years time. No team that makes the finals this year would use him. He's still to young. Most likely, in 2 years, he'll be starting for us. The jury is still out on if he can be the primary 2 guard on a team that wins a championship. So far, I'm going with no.

Thabo: #1 Defensive wing stopper, probably off the bench. Bruce Bowen did it, won championships. Thabo isn't that far off from Bruce as far as defensive effectiveness. I can see this working. So, NBA Finals Champ right now.

Krstic: He wouldn't see the floor on any team that could make the finals.

Collison: Off the bench in the finals. We're talking 10 minutes tops.

Ibaka: Completely unknown. If he learns to dominate defensively, he'll see the floor. Can you win a championship with Ibaka as your starting center? I'm going with no. He must improve correctly rotating on defense, passing the ball, scoring efficiently, drawing fouls going to the hole with aggression. Too much on his list to say yet.

Maynor: 10 minutes off the bench in a back up role. I'd say most finals teams would use him, especially in two years. NBA Finals Champ in that role.

Mullens/White/Weaver: So far, bench fodder on most teams. Only time will tell, and the opportunity to play.

So, in conclusion, we are too young to know right now. I have large doubts about our SG and Center. We don't have the scoring options outside of Durant that we need. Even if Russell improves a ton, he would still have to be the 3rd option to win a championship. We have nothing competitive at center at both ends of the floor. Nick and Ibaka can rebound and defend, Krstic can sometimes score, none of them can do both effectively. This team as a championship team will see Jeff and James on the bench most likely.

Just how I see it.

I am happy if we stay par or make a trade. Man if we did I just wouldn't mind having Biedrins. Especially if we can keep Mullins. I think with Ibaka, Mullins, and Biedrins fighting for playing time would really help improve all three of them. Beidrins contract would be worth it to me if it made Mullins and Ibaka better players.

@Paul
Thanks Paul I have been trying to say this exact thing all day but just could not put as etiquette as you just did.

Justin,

Al Thornton was 24 when he was drafted. Of course he hasn't progressed very much. Jeff Green has made progress since his rookie year, just not as much as we'd like. Now that he's 23, it's less likely he'll make significant gains going forward.

However, Ibaka is 20 and started playing basketball 4 years ago and is already getting regular minutes on a playoff team. Why wouldn't he get much better?

Harden is 20. At 22 Maynor may not grow as much as the other two, but point guards generally take longer to mature than any other position because of the mental complexities involved.

The reason people expect them to get much better is because pretty much every player in the league got much better from when they were 20 to when they were 25.

Why are you questioning an assumption backed up by reams of historical NBA data?

I think a Biedrins trade that doesn't require a rotation piece (such as White, expiring contracts, or picks) would be beneficial. He would give us most of the things we need, plus he's young and could grow with our young guys, his contract isn't overly extravagant much like Collison's isn't super unreasonable. The idea of having cap space this summer doesn't necessarily help us as we aren't likely to sign some of the major FA and the RFA such as Gay are likely going to sign for contracts we wouldn't want them at. Hence, getting a slightly overpaid but potentially better player seems like a reasonable thing to do.

@DL

Why are Harden, Ibaka, and Maynor all likely to 'improve significantly' next year? What are you basing this assumption on? As we are currently experiencing with Jeff Green, and as any fan of, say, Al Thorton will tell you, progression is not always linear. I think you're taking a lot for granted by making those kinds of assumptions.

When will people realize that unless they make a trade involving turning one or more picks into future picks (a draft day transaction) the Thunder made their big trade in December for Eric Maynor. As appealing as Harpring's contract is to everyone else, why not save some money and spend it on Durant and maybe a free agent. They weren't supposed to be this good. Next year was the year, right?

OKC is going to win 48 to 50 games this year, and finish 4th or 5th in the West, with 3 rookies playing roles. Harden, Ibaka and Maynor will all likely improve significantly next year. Westbrook and Durant will get better. Why not 60 wins, a #1 seed in the West and a spot in the finals next year? Yes, with this same exact roster.

I wouldn't trade Ibaka straight-up for any of the big men available this trading period (Amare, Biedrins, Murphy, Jamison, Camby). They are available because they are old, injury-prone, overpaid, selfish or overrated.

I still think that no deals is the best option.

We have to think long term here folks, I know we`re all excited that this team is so far along in so little time, but we`re still talking about a peak in 3 or 4 years.

Durant is an aberration right now, 21 and doing what he`s doing, but who`s to say that he won`t get better? The same for Jeff, Russ and Harden, they`ve all barely scratched the surface of their enormous talents... why rush it?

Let`s think on the best possible deal on this deadline: Amare for Suns 1st, Harpring and Thomas. That`s obviously a great deal, but what comes out of it?

Amare most likely won`t pick up his option, unless we win the championship or anything... so we have 2 scenarios:

1 - renew Amare (max contract)
2 - let him go

I can`t see any of these helping the Thunder on our projected peak. If we renew Amare, we won`t have money to bring Green back, which could have terrible chemistry effects, and Durant`s contract is expiring soon... If we let him go, what good came out of it? Is this team a championship contender with Amare, in this condition? For me, definitely no.

I say it`s a high risk, low reward deal. let`s keep this money and see what happens on the free agency. I know there are many, many teams wih cap room, but the Thunder is an atractive young team with a bona fide superstar and a good suporting cast already in place. For all the talk about small markets, nobody complained about going to the Spurs to play with Duncan.

@Sparks
i like the way you are thinking. Presti is most likely to pull off something like this without paying too high a price. Who saw the Maynor deal coming?

@justin I agree with Justin. Everyone in Thundertopia is elated with the teams currant serge. But this is simply because expectations were set so low. At some point the fans,(and Durant)are going to expect a championship. This team succeeds because it is young,long and willing to exhaust itself defensively nearly every night. What is going to happen in few years when this team ages? We need another big time scorer who can guarantee us 18 to 22 points a game and preferably a player who can get those points in the paint. With that in mind, Stoudemire would be an excellent fit.
Lets not forget the Sonics made the playoffs nearly every year. Without a siginigant scoring presence the Thunder are just a cheaper version of the old sonics model...a team that regularly made the playoffs but could not get over the hump.

@Anonymous
Everyone can make all the claims they want about the logical decision to draft Blair. Hindsight bias makes everyone seem ridiculous for passing on Blair. The thing that has yet to be determined is this, if Mullens grows into some of his potential (he has more than Blair) is this still even a conversation. Secondly, it is important to remember that at the time of the draft people were looking at Blair without ACLs in either knee, so people weren't sure how he's going to hold up, they were doubting his current value, but a rebuilding team like the Thunder looking to the future might not want to take that chance. Every year there are always those kind of players that fall, but to say that it doesn't make sense is kind of pointless given that there is reasoning behind why they were passed.

with marc gasol affirming his place as franchise center the griz simply don't have enough minutes to allow thabeet to develop, and even if they did, they're not going to be willing to pay him what others would when his rookie contract expires to play as a backup. Combine that with them trying to re-sign rudy gay this summer, they'd definitely be willing to part with him for the right price

@justin
O yeah if golden state wanted to go the same route as what the clippers went that would be a lot. I definitely think that would be to much also. I thought you were just talking about his contract.

Thabeet would be an okay piece and him and Ibaka could share the minutes and could be paired up at times also. With him just being drafted I just don't see Memphis trading him away so soon.

@Jared M

$9M + $3M mentioned in the article..

9 mil for every singe year of his contract. If he becomes a dud yeah that would really suck. But he is only 24 years old and could become a lot better and if that happens 9 million will sound a million times better. I mean at 36 years old Camby is making more than him granted he is better than him but just saying. Its not like some contracts in which in 2 or 3 years his contract will hike up to 13 mil or 14 mil.

the 3 things we need in a center are scoring, rebounding, and defense. Unless we get really lucky in the draft the next couple years we aren't going to get all three without giving up a core piece in return. If we could get thabeet for our draft picks and expirings, wouldn't he be worth it? He's almost definitely never going to provide serious scoring, but he is looking like a game changer in the other two categories. At the very least in a year or two we could go from being one of the best defenses in the league to being one of the best defenses ever.

Well crap, it looks like the Camby deal is official. My only remaining hope is that Presti has something on the burner for Biedrins. Intervening in the Camby trade with a better offer looked like a no-brainer to me. Just keeping the Blazers from landing a quality center should have been worth the relative miniscule cost in salary and assets it would have taken to exceed their offer. My fear in all of this is that this wasn't a basketball decision on Presti's part, but was instead a cheap-skate front office decision by Bennett. To date, our front office has been one of the most miserly in the league, but their failure to act/spend could just as easily be attributed to savy positioning for the future. Failing to turn any of our expiring contracts or picks into a valuable front-court addition will likely mean that Bennett and company are more intent on running the team on the cheap than they are in building a winning organization. Time will tell, but we will be doomed in the long-run if that really is their underlying philosophy.

That'd be a lot of money for Andris Biedrins..

@Anonymous
Well, because this team's top four is all under 23, hasn't yet tapped it's potential and may have every every piece is realistically needs. Why do you think Serge Ibaka was drafted? Just to be traded? What about Byron Mullens? Is he just a trade piece? This organization is about developing the talent it has. And in three years, don't you think some of these guys will get better?

Again, I'm not opposed to getting better now. How dumb would that be? But people like to chase a title by making this deal for Amare, that deal for Bosh, or this deal for Wade. Presti's plan all along has been to find a corner piece, build around that, stockpile assets and cap space and let it all fall into place.

This group is already way ahead of schedule. They could realistically finish fourth in the Western Conference as is. So in another year, two or three, don't you think they'll be much, much better?

Espn Rumor Central
We just told you that the Blazers' package for Marcus Camby included an additional $3 million in cash to the Clippers.

And according to Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News, the Warriors may also go that route and ask for some money in return in any deal: "Warriors might go Clipper route: Include $3 million in your offer and Robert Rowell/Chris Cohan will talk about giving away anybody on roster, except Stephen Curry," he tweets.

Who's the floor spacer on a team without Harden? Sheridan has us sending out our only legitimate 3-point threat besides Durant and getting non-shooters in return. We need one MORE shooter, not losing the only one we have besides Durant.

And Amare' is not the answer. No rebounds, no defense, no rings. Vintage Ben Wallace would be better than Amare'.

Durantula :If I were to guess, I think the Thunder will be ready for a serious run in the 2011-2012 season and that is the season we should really be worried about. IMHO.

As a Chiefs/Royals fan, you have no idea how many times I have read a variant of this sentence :(

David Lee got into the ASG so he will be grossly overpaid, now. Stupid injuries..

I'm on board for David Lee...if only to further the 'No tattooed players' theory

I am not a fan of a Barbosa / Westbrook backcourt.. could you imagine?

The idea of Stoudemire to OKC has some merit, but Clark is right that Sheridan seems a bit ignorant about the Thunder depth chart, needs, etc.

Some of you guys need to seriously settle down. This years team just needs experience. Hopefully we can get to the playoffs and get some wins. Even if we pick up a primo center, our other players still need more experience. I think that this team should be smart, get experience, keep the team together, and find a way to get a tough interior player on the team when the right deal/draft pick is there... whether that is this year or in 2 seasons. If I were to guess, I think the Thunder will be ready for a serious run in the 2011-2012 season and that is the season we should really be worried about. IMHO.

I think Sheridan completely loses all credibility when he puts Mike James ahead of Eric Maynor in the depth chart. It tells me he hasn't been following the team, outside of K.D. and thinks everyone else is a spare part.

The other thing is that his trade scenarios are all about this upcoming playoff drive, and even then you have to downgrade Stoudemire and Barbosa for leaving D'Antoni systems and the Wizards players he has coming this way are basically the garbage that couldn't get playing time for their crappy team.

@Boots

I've said that before Simmons did. Anyone could be the #2. Preferably a big guy who could solve some other problems (DREB). The point is that we need that #2..

@Lefty
You've got my support. I like D-Lee.

@justin
I agree. I really don't get the current hysteria over Stoudemire. He seems to be injury prone and after next year he's going to want a max deal that he won't deserve.

People reference the Spurs model but as good as Kevin Durant is, he's no Tim Duncan. Duncan almost won a ring singlehandedly, he was a complete game changer on both ends of the court. It's easy to build teams and stay competitive when you have the best PF of all time in the current NBA..

Let's just start samprestipleasesigndavidlee.com